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The only way to get rid of a temptation is to yield to it. -- Oscar Wilde

interests / rec.games.backgammon / Rollout: Hit or cover?

SubjectAuthor
* Hit or cover?Timothy Chow
+* Re: Hit or cover?ah...Clem
|`- Re: Hit or cover?Stick Rice
`- Rollout: Hit or cover?Timothy Chow

1
Hit or cover?

<tevljq$2t0el$2@dont-email.me>

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From: tchow12...@yahoo.com (Timothy Chow)
Newsgroups: rec.games.backgammon
Subject: Hit or cover?
Date: Sat, 3 Sep 2022 09:42:17 -0400
Organization: A noiseless patient Spider
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 by: Timothy Chow - Sat, 3 Sep 2022 13:42 UTC

XGID=---BaCB---A-bCc-Ac-dBb---A:0:0:1:61:0:0:0:0:10

X:Player 1 O:Player 2
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O X O | | O X O |
| X O O | | O X O |
| X O O | | O |
| | | O |
| | X | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | |
| | | X |
| O | | X X X |
| O X | | X X O X |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 163 O: 136 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X to play 61

---
Tim Chow

Re: Hit or cover?

<tf04gv$2uja4$1@dont-email.me>

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From: ah_c...@ymail.com (ah...Clem)
Newsgroups: rec.games.backgammon
Subject: Re: Hit or cover?
Date: Sat, 3 Sep 2022 13:56:44 -0400
Organization: A noiseless patient Spider
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In-Reply-To: <tevljq$2t0el$2@dont-email.me>
 by: ah...Clem - Sat, 3 Sep 2022 17:56 UTC

On 9/3/2022 9:42 AM, Timothy Chow wrote:
> XGID=---BaCB---A-bCc-Ac-dBb---A:0:0:1:61:0:0:0:0:10
>
> X:Player 1   O:Player 2
> Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
>  +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
>  | X  O     X  O    |   | O  X  O          |
>  | X  O        O    |   | O  X  O          |
>  | X  O        O    |   | O                |
>  |                  |   | O                |
>  |                  | X |                  |
>  |                  |BAR|                  |
>  |                  |   |                  |
>  |                  |   |                  |
>  |                  |   |    X             |
>  | O                |   | X  X     X       |
>  | O     X          |   | X  X  O  X       |
>  +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
> Pip count  X: 163  O: 136 X-O: 0-0
> Cube: 1
> X to play 61

X is behind in the race, has the better board, and an advanced anchor.
That points toward a bold play, so I'll hit. bar/24 10/4.

Re: Hit or cover?

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Subject: Re: Hit or cover?
From: bananabo...@gmail.com (Stick Rice)
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 by: Stick Rice - Sat, 3 Sep 2022 21:36 UTC

On Saturday, September 3, 2022 at 1:56:49 PM UTC-4, ah...Clem wrote:
> On 9/3/2022 9:42 AM, Timothy Chow wrote:
> > XGID=---BaCB---A-bCc-Ac-dBb---A:0:0:1:61:0:0:0:0:10
> >
> > X:Player 1 O:Player 2
> > Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
> > +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
> > | X O X O | | O X O |
> > | X O O | | O X O |
> > | X O O | | O |
> > | | | O |
> > | | X | |
> > | |BAR| |
> > | | | |
> > | | | |
> > | | | X |
> > | O | | X X X |
> > | O X | | X X O X |
> > +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
> > Pip count X: 163 O: 136 X-O: 0-0
> > Cube: 1
> > X to play 61
> X is behind in the race, has the better board, and an advanced anchor.
> That points toward a bold play, so I'll hit. bar/24 10/4.

He also doesn't have enough men in the zone to blitz and not many covers even if missed. Hard to weigh all the factors but another factor pointing the other direction is that the 10pt is quite the useful point. Normally when we're looking at hit/no hit situations like this the non hitting play isn't as fruitful.

Stick

Rollout: Hit or cover?

<tf5054$3jjc7$1@dont-email.me>

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From: tchow12...@yahoo.com (Timothy Chow)
Newsgroups: rec.games.backgammon
Subject: Rollout: Hit or cover?
Date: Mon, 5 Sep 2022 10:12:49 -0400
Organization: A noiseless patient Spider
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 by: Timothy Chow - Mon, 5 Sep 2022 14:12 UTC

XGID=---BaCB---A-bCc-Ac-dBb---A:0:0:1:61:0:0:0:0:10

X:Player 1 O:Player 2
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O X O | | O X O |
| X O O | | O X O |
| X O O | | O |
| | | O |
| | X | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | |
| | | X |
| O | | X X X |
| O X | | X X O X |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 163 O: 136 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X to play 61

This is tough one, I think. As ah_clem implied, Magriel's criteria
point to a bold play, which suggests hitting. But XG prefers to
button up with 16/10. X may be able to contain O's straggler without
risking getting two more checkers sent back, and even if O's straggler
escapes, X should get other opportunities to hit later.

1. Rollout¹ Bar/24 16/10 eq:-0.078
Player: 46.62% (G:14.03% B:0.43%)
Opponent: 53.38% (G:10.22% B:0.41%)
Confidence: ±0.007 (-0.085..-0.072) - [100.0%]

2. Rollout¹ Bar/24 10/4* eq:-0.152 (-0.074)
Player: 46.02% (G:13.43% B:0.40%)
Opponent: 53.98% (G:14.59% B:0.70%)
Confidence: ±0.008 (-0.160..-0.144) - [0.0%]

¹ 5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.207.pre-release

---
Tim Chow

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