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interests / rec.games.backgammon / I didn't roll an ace

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I didn't roll an ace

Timothy Chow

Re: I didn't roll an ace

ah...Clem

Rollout: I didn't roll an ace

Timothy Chow

I didn't roll an ace

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From: tchow12...@yahoo.com (Timothy Chow)
Newsgroups: rec.games.backgammon
Subject: I didn't roll an ace
Date: Mon, 5 Sep 2022 10:14:00 -0400
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by: Timothy Chow - Mon, 5 Sep 2022 14:14 UTC

XGID=--BBBBB-----bAd---Bc-aBcb-:1:1:1:33:0:0:0:0:10

X:Player 1 O:Player 2
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O X | | O O X O O |
| O X | | O X O O |
| O | | O O |
| O | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | |
| | | | +---+
| O | | X X X X X | | 2 |
| O | | X X X X X | +---+
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 133 O: 100 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 2, X own cube
X to play 33

---
Tim Chow

Re: I didn't roll an ace

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From: ah_c...@ymail.com (ah...Clem)
Newsgroups: rec.games.backgammon
Subject: Re: I didn't roll an ace
Date: Tue, 6 Sep 2022 11:44:49 -0400
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by: ah...Clem - Tue, 6 Sep 2022 15:44 UTC

On 9/5/2022 10:14 AM, Timothy Chow wrote:
> XGID=--BBBBB-----bAd---Bc-aBcb-:1:1:1:33:0:0:0:0:10
>
> X:Player 1   O:Player 2
> Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
> +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
> | X O           X |   | O     O X O O |
> |    O           X |   | O        X O O |
> |    O             |   | O           O    |
> |    O             |   |                  |
> |                  |   |                  |
> |                  |BAR|                  |
> |                  |   |                  |
> |                  |   |                  |
> |                  |   |                  | +---+
> | O                |   | X X X X X    | | 2 |
> | O                |   | X X X X X    | +---+
> +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
> Pip count X: 133 O: 100 X-O: 0-0
> Cube: 2, X own cube
> X to play 33
>

Behind in the race so maintain contact. The checkers on the eighteen
point stay where they are. I'm not very enthused about slotting the ace
point but it looks better than the alternatives.

Rollout: I didn't roll an ace

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From: tchow12...@yahoo.com (Timothy Chow)
Newsgroups: rec.games.backgammon
Subject: Rollout: I didn't roll an ace
Date: Wed, 7 Sep 2022 08:53:01 -0400
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by: Timothy Chow - Wed, 7 Sep 2022 12:53 UTC

XGID=--BBBBB-----bAd---Bc-aBcb-:1:1:1:33:0:0:0:0:10

I think this one is tough. According to general principles, X should
stay back in order to maximize his chances of getting and hitting a
shot. On the other hand, 13/1 leaves him totally stripped, with a
blot in his otherwise killer board. According to the rollout below,
13/1 is a whopper. But see the variants to get a sense of some of
the subtleties of the position.

1. Rollout¹ 18/15(2) 13/7 eq:+0.291
Player: 53.60% (G:16.30% B:0.33%)
Opponent: 46.40% (G:5.82% B:0.09%)
Confidence: ±0.007 (+0.283..+0.298) - [100.0%]

2. Rollout¹ 13/1 eq:+0.172 (-0.118)
Player: 49.57% (G:14.24% B:0.31%)
Opponent: 50.43% (G:10.51% B:0.17%)
Confidence: ±0.008 (+0.164..+0.181) - [0.0%]

3. Rollout¹ 18/15(2) 4/1(2) eq:+0.164 (-0.127)
Player: 47.96% (G:13.62% B:0.18%)
Opponent: 52.04% (G:7.31% B:0.14%)
Confidence: ±0.007 (+0.157..+0.171) - [0.0%]

¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.207.pre-release

---------
Variant 1
---------

XGID=-AABBBB-----bAd---Bc-aBcb-:1:1:1:33:0:0:0:0:10

X:Player 1 O:Player 2
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O X | | O O X O O |
| O X | | O X O O |
| O | | O O |
| O | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | |
| | | | +---+
| O | | X X X X | | 2 |
| O | | X X X X X X | +---+
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 132 O: 100 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 2, X own cube
X to play 33

1. Rollout¹ 18/15(2) 13/7 eq:+0.092
Player: 46.48% (G:12.03% B:0.22%)
Opponent: 53.52% (G:9.15% B:0.24%)
Confidence: ±0.007 (+0.085..+0.100) - [59.4%]

2. Rollout¹ 13/1 eq:+0.091 (-0.001)
Player: 46.88% (G:12.57% B:0.22%)
Opponent: 53.12% (G:11.15% B:0.18%)
Confidence: ±0.008 (+0.084..+0.099) - [40.6%]

¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.207.pre-release

---------
Variant 2
---------

XGID=--BBBBB-----bdA---Bc-aBcb-:1:1:1:33:0:0:0:0:10

X:Player 1 O:Player 2
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| O X X | | O O X O O |
| O X | | O X O O |
| O | | O O |
| O | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | |
| | | | +---+
| O | | X X X X X | | 2 |
| O | | X X X X X | +---+
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 134 O: 104 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 2, X own cube
X to play 33

1. Rollout¹ 14/2 eq:+0.429
Player: 56.86% (G:19.17% B:0.40%)
Opponent: 43.14% (G:7.24% B:0.07%)
Confidence: ±0.012 (+0.417..+0.441) - [55.8%]

2. Rollout¹ 18/15(2) 14/8 eq:+0.428 (-0.001)
Player: 56.29% (G:19.29% B:0.36%)
Opponent: 43.71% (G:4.50% B:0.07%)
Confidence: ±0.009 (+0.419..+0.437) - [44.2%]

¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.207.pre-release

---------
Variant 3
---------

XGID=---BBCC-----bAd---Bc-aBcb-:1:1:1:33:0:0:0:0:10

X:Player 1 O:Player 2
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O X | | O O X O O |
| O X | | O X O O |
| O | | O O |
| O | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | |
| | | X X | +---+
| O | | X X X X | | 2 |
| O | | X X X X | +---+
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 140 O: 100 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 2, X own cube
X to play 33

1. Rollout¹ 13/4 5/2 eq:+0.217
Player: 51.25% (G:14.77% B:0.36%)
Opponent: 48.75% (G:10.80% B:0.14%)
Confidence: ±0.009 (+0.208..+0.226) - [100.0%]

2. Rollout¹ 18/15(2) 13/10 5/2 eq:+0.191 (-0.026)
Player: 49.73% (G:13.72% B:0.32%)
Opponent: 50.27% (G:7.72% B:0.13%)
Confidence: ±0.008 (+0.182..+0.199) - [0.0%]

3. Rollout¹ 18/15(2) 13/7 eq:+0.189 (-0.028)
Player: 49.26% (G:13.01% B:0.28%)
Opponent: 50.74% (G:6.91% B:0.13%)
Confidence: ±0.009 (+0.181..+0.198) - [0.0%]

¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.207.pre-release

---------
Variant 4
---------

XGID=--ABBCB-----bAd---Bc-aBcb-:1:1:1:33:0:0:0:0:10

X:Player 1 O:Player 2
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O X | | O O X O O |
| O X | | O X O O |
| O | | O O |
| O | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | |
| | | X | +---+
| O | | X X X X | | 2 |
| O | | X X X X X | +---+
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 136 O: 100 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 2, X own cube
X to play 33

1. Rollout¹ 18/15(2) 13/10 5/2 eq:+0.298
Player: 53.26% (G:15.84% B:0.32%)
Opponent: 46.74% (G:5.59% B:0.07%)
Confidence: ±0.009 (+0.289..+0.306) - [100.0%]

2. Rollout¹ 13/4 5/2 eq:+0.261 (-0.037)
Player: 52.12% (G:15.10% B:0.32%)
Opponent: 47.88% (G:8.01% B:0.10%)
Confidence: ±0.008 (+0.253..+0.269) - [0.0%]

¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.207.pre-release

---
Tim Chow