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interests / rec.games.backgammon / Must leave a shot

SubjectAuthor
* Must leave a shotTimothy Chow
+- Re: Must leave a shotpeps...@gmail.com
+* Re: Must leave a shotah....Clem
|+* Re: Must leave a shotpeps...@gmail.com
||`* Re: Must leave a shotTimothy Chow
|| `* Re: Must leave a shotpeps...@gmail.com
||  `- Re: Must leave a shotTimothy Chow
|`* Re: Must leave a shotah....Clem
| `- Re: Must leave a shotpeps...@gmail.com
`- Rollout: Must leave a shotTimothy Chow

1
Must leave a shot

<tfa49i$7vaa$2@dont-email.me>

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From: tchow12...@yahoo.com (Timothy Chow)
Newsgroups: rec.games.backgammon
Subject: Must leave a shot
Date: Wed, 7 Sep 2022 08:54:10 -0400
Organization: A noiseless patient Spider
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 by: Timothy Chow - Wed, 7 Sep 2022 12:54 UTC

XGID=--BabBEB----bB-a-c-bbbB---:1:1:1:53:0:0:0:0:10

X:Player 1 O:Player 2
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O O | | O O O X |
| X O | | O O O X |
| O | | |
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | X |
| | | X |
| | | X | +---+
| O X | | X X O X | | 2 |
| O X | | X X O O X | +---+
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 128 O: 154 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 2, X own cube
X to play 53

---
Tim Chow

Re: Must leave a shot

<f2fab131-f01f-407e-9a75-216971479975n@googlegroups.com>

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Subject: Re: Must leave a shot
From: pepste...@gmail.com (peps...@gmail.com)
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 by: peps...@gmail.com - Thu, 8 Sep 2022 14:12 UTC

On Wednesday, September 7, 2022 at 1:54:12 PM UTC+1, Tim Chow wrote:
> XGID=--BabBEB----bB-a-c-bbbB---:1:1:1:53:0:0:0:0:10
>
> X:Player 1 O:Player 2
> Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
> +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
> | X O O | | O O O X |
> | X O | | O O O X |
> | O | | |
> | | | |
> | | | |
> | |BAR| |
> | | | X |
> | | | X |
> | | | X | +---+
> | O X | | X X O X | | 2 |
> | O X | | X X O O X | +---+
> +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
> Pip count X: 128 O: 154 X-O: 0-0
> Cube: 2, X own cube
> X to play 53

We don't particularly want to be hit, but we need a play that pays off if the opponent rolls badly.
13/5 (for example) isn't good because, if the opponent fails to hit, we don't have a strong enough upside.
I'm going to say 6/3* 6/1 with a certain amount of confidence.
I'll be surprised (but not amazed if I'm wrong. Our attack works well for the 16 rolls that don't hit back.
And being hit isn't so terrible with three inner board points open and plenty of chances for contact in our favour.
13/8 6/3* is a candidate but the midpoint is a fine asset to give up, and this play leaves three blots instead of two.
6/3* 6/1.

Paul

Re: Must leave a shot

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From: ah_c...@ymail.com (ah....Clem)
Newsgroups: rec.games.backgammon
Subject: Re: Must leave a shot
Date: Thu, 8 Sep 2022 10:26:52 -0400
Organization: The Future Fair
Lines: 31
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 by: ah....Clem - Thu, 8 Sep 2022 14:26 UTC

On 9/7/2022 8:54 AM, Timothy Chow wrote:
> XGID=--BabBEB----bB-a-c-bbbB---:1:1:1:53:0:0:0:0:10
>
> X:Player 1   O:Player 2
> Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
>  +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
>  | X     O     O    |   | O  O  O  X       |
>  | X           O    |   | O  O  O  X       |
>  |             O    |   |                  |
>  |                  |   |                  |
>  |                  |   |                  |
>  |                  |BAR|                  |
>  |                  |   | X                |
>  |                  |   | X                |
>  |                  |   | X                | +---+
>  | O              X |   | X  X  O     X    | | 2 |
>  | O              X |   | X  X  O  O  X    | +---+
>  +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
> Pip count  X: 128  O: 154 X-O: 0-0
> Cube: 2, X own cube
> X to play 53

7/2 7/4 doesn't leave a shot. X is ahead in the race, so safe play
would be indicated. Hitting loose would make some sense if there were a
reasonable five to play. I'll make the safe play.

--
Ah....Clem
The future is fun, the future is fair.

Re: Must leave a shot

<620c5710-8a1f-4de0-9e8c-67ed92899b62n@googlegroups.com>

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Subject: Re: Must leave a shot
From: pepste...@gmail.com (peps...@gmail.com)
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 by: peps...@gmail.com - Thu, 8 Sep 2022 14:54 UTC

On Thursday, September 8, 2022 at 3:26:53 PM UTC+1, ah....Clem wrote:
> On 9/7/2022 8:54 AM, Timothy Chow wrote:
> > XGID=--BabBEB----bB-a-c-bbbB---:1:1:1:53:0:0:0:0:10
> >
> > X:Player 1 O:Player 2
> > Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
> > +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
> > | X O O | | O O O X |
> > | X O | | O O O X |
> > | O | | |
> > | | | |
> > | | | |
> > | |BAR| |
> > | | | X |
> > | | | X |
> > | | | X | +---+
> > | O X | | X X O X | | 2 |
> > | O X | | X X O O X | +---+
> > +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
> > Pip count X: 128 O: 154 X-O: 0-0
> > Cube: 2, X own cube
> > X to play 53
> 7/2 7/4 doesn't leave a shot.

Agreed that it doesn't. But it has the slight disadvantage of being illegal.

Paul

Re: Must leave a shot

<tffbch$11pk4$2@dont-email.me>

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From: tchow12...@yahoo.com (Timothy Chow)
Newsgroups: rec.games.backgammon
Subject: Re: Must leave a shot
Date: Fri, 9 Sep 2022 08:25:55 -0400
Organization: A noiseless patient Spider
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 by: Timothy Chow - Fri, 9 Sep 2022 12:25 UTC

On 9/8/2022 10:54 AM, peps...@gmail.com wrote:
> Agreed that it doesn't. But it has the slight disadvantage of being illegal.

Right. I sometimes write tricky subject lines, but I don't
intentionally make blatantly false statements about which plays
are legal.

---
Tim Chow

Rollout: Must leave a shot

<tffbp4$11rc6$1@dont-email.me>

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From: tchow12...@yahoo.com (Timothy Chow)
Newsgroups: rec.games.backgammon
Subject: Rollout: Must leave a shot
Date: Fri, 9 Sep 2022 08:32:36 -0400
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 by: Timothy Chow - Fri, 9 Sep 2022 12:32 UTC

XGID=--BabBEB----bB-a-c-bbbB---:1:1:1:53:0:0:0:0:10

X:Player 1 O:Player 2
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O O | | O O O X |
| X O | | O O O X |
| O | | |
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | X |
| | | X |
| | | X | +---+
| O X | | X X O X | | 2 |
| O X | | X X O O X | +---+
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 128 O: 154 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 2, X own cube
X to play 53

Congrats to Paul, who found the bot play 6/1 6/3*. If X hits with
6/3*, then neither 7/2 nor 13/8 is more attractive than 6/1, so the
principal alternative is 13/5. When you're forced to leave a shot
in a mutual holding game, breaking the midpoint is often the lesser
evil, but here, 6/1 6/3* unstacks the heavy 6pt, and as Paul says,
it has a better upside if X is missed.

1. Rollout¹ 6/1 6/3* eq:-0.203
Player: 36.50% (G:13.03% B:0.33%)
Opponent: 63.50% (G:18.89% B:0.91%)
Confidence: ±0.010 (-0.214..-0.193) - [100.0%]

2. Rollout¹ 7/2 6/3* eq:-0.266 (-0.062)
Player: 34.42% (G:11.95% B:0.23%)
Opponent: 65.58% (G:18.72% B:0.90%)
Confidence: ±0.009 (-0.275..-0.257) - [0.0%]

3. Rollout¹ 13/5 eq:-0.290 (-0.087)
Player: 32.95% (G:9.85% B:0.34%)
Opponent: 67.05% (G:15.34% B:0.66%)
Confidence: ±0.009 (-0.299..-0.281) - [0.0%]

4. Rollout¹ 13/8 6/3* eq:-0.294 (-0.091)
Player: 34.01% (G:11.28% B:0.35%)
Opponent: 65.99% (G:19.67% B:0.89%)
Confidence: ±0.009 (-0.303..-0.286) - [0.0%]

¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.207.pre-release

---
Tim Chow

Re: Must leave a shot

<73296592-12bc-4734-bcca-682b8e051e25n@googlegroups.com>

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Subject: Re: Must leave a shot
From: pepste...@gmail.com (peps...@gmail.com)
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 by: peps...@gmail.com - Fri, 9 Sep 2022 16:29 UTC

On Friday, September 9, 2022 at 1:25:55 PM UTC+1, Tim Chow wrote:
> On 9/8/2022 10:54 AM, peps...@gmail.com wrote:
> > Agreed that it doesn't. But it has the slight disadvantage of being illegal.
> Right. I sometimes write tricky subject lines, but I don't
> intentionally make blatantly false statements about which plays
> are legal.
>
> ---
> Tim Chow

But "must" isn't clearly defined.
Wouldn't "must leave a shot" be a reasonable title (for you)
if there were safe non-leaving-a-shot plays but they
were too weak (in your opinion) to be worthy of consideration?

"Must" doesn't always mean "legally must".

Paul

Re: Must leave a shot

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From: ah_c...@ymail.com (ah....Clem)
Newsgroups: rec.games.backgammon
Subject: Re: Must leave a shot
Date: Fri, 9 Sep 2022 12:37:59 -0400
Organization: The Future Fair
Lines: 39
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 by: ah....Clem - Fri, 9 Sep 2022 16:37 UTC

On 9/8/2022 10:26 AM, ah....Clem wrote:
> On 9/7/2022 8:54 AM, Timothy Chow wrote:
>> XGID=--BabBEB----bB-a-c-bbbB---:1:1:1:53:0:0:0:0:10
>>
>> X:Player 1   O:Player 2
>> Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
>>   +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
>>   | X     O     O    |   | O  O  O  X       |
>>   | X           O    |   | O  O  O  X       |
>>   |             O    |   |                  |
>>   |                  |   |                  |
>>   |                  |   |                  |
>>   |                  |BAR|                  |
>>   |                  |   | X                |
>>   |                  |   | X                |
>>   |                  |   | X                | +---+
>>   | O              X |   | X  X  O     X    | | 2 |
>>   | O              X |   | X  X  O  O  X    | +---+
>>   +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
>> Pip count  X: 128  O: 154 X-O: 0-0
>> Cube: 2, X own cube
>> X to play 53
>
>
> 7/2 7/4 doesn't leave a shot.  X is ahead in the race, so safe play
> would be indicated.  Hitting loose would make some sense if there were a
> reasonable five to play.  I'll make the safe play.

Boy, those Os on the four sure looked like Xs yesterday.

I'd like to keep the midpoint, but exposing double direct shots when
ahead in the race seems counterintuitive. So, 11/5 for me.

--
Ah....Clem
The future is fun, the future is fair.

Re: Must leave a shot

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Subject: Re: Must leave a shot
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 by: peps...@gmail.com - Fri, 9 Sep 2022 17:19 UTC

On Friday, September 9, 2022 at 5:37:59 PM UTC+1, ah....Clem wrote:
> On 9/8/2022 10:26 AM, ah....Clem wrote:
> > On 9/7/2022 8:54 AM, Timothy Chow wrote:
> >> XGID=--BabBEB----bB-a-c-bbbB---:1:1:1:53:0:0:0:0:10
> >>
> >> X:Player 1 O:Player 2
> >> Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
> >> +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
> >> | X O O | | O O O X |
> >> | X O | | O O O X |
> >> | O | | |
> >> | | | |
> >> | | | |
> >> | |BAR| |
> >> | | | X |
> >> | | | X |
> >> | | | X | +---+
> >> | O X | | X X O X | | 2 |
> >> | O X | | X X O O X | +---+
> >> +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
> >> Pip count X: 128 O: 154 X-O: 0-0
> >> Cube: 2, X own cube
> >> X to play 53
> >
> >
> > 7/2 7/4 doesn't leave a shot. X is ahead in the race, so safe play
> > would be indicated. Hitting loose would make some sense if there were a
> > reasonable five to play. I'll make the safe play.
> Boy, those Os on the four sure looked like Xs yesterday.
>
> I'd like to keep the midpoint, but exposing double direct shots when
> ahead in the race seems counterintuitive. So, 11/5 for me.
> --
> Ah....Clem
> The future is fun, the future is fair.

Do you mean 13/5?

Paul

Re: Must leave a shot

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From: tchow12...@yahoo.com (Timothy Chow)
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Subject: Re: Must leave a shot
Date: Sat, 10 Sep 2022 08:08:42 -0400
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 by: Timothy Chow - Sat, 10 Sep 2022 12:08 UTC

On 9/9/2022 12:29 PM, peps...@gmail.com wrote:
> On Friday, September 9, 2022 at 1:25:55 PM UTC+1, Tim Chow wrote:
>> On 9/8/2022 10:54 AM, peps...@gmail.com wrote:
>>> Agreed that it doesn't. But it has the slight disadvantage of being illegal.
>> Right. I sometimes write tricky subject lines, but I don't
>> intentionally make blatantly false statements about which plays
>> are legal.
>>
>> ---
>> Tim Chow
>
> But "must" isn't clearly defined.
> Wouldn't "must leave a shot" be a reasonable title (for you)
> if there were safe non-leaving-a-shot plays but they
> were too weak (in your opinion) to be worthy of consideration?
>
> "Must" doesn't always mean "legally must".

Fair point. I intended "legally must" here, but you're right that the
subject line doesn't quite explicitly assert that.

---
Tim Chow

1
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