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interests / rec.games.backgammon / Rollout: That sound you hear? It's a board crunching

SubjectAuthor
* That sound you hear? It's a board crunchingTimothy Chow
+* Re: That sound you hear? It's a board crunchingah...Clem
|`- Re: That sound you hear? It's a board crunchingStick Rice
+- Re: That sound you hear? It's a board crunchingpeps...@gmail.com
`- Rollout: That sound you hear? It's a board crunchingTimothy Chow

1
That sound you hear? It's a board crunching

<tf7h42$3tn7h$2@dont-email.me>

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From: tchow12...@yahoo.com (Timothy Chow)
Newsgroups: rec.games.backgammon
Subject: That sound you hear? It's a board crunching
Date: Tue, 6 Sep 2022 09:14:43 -0400
Organization: A noiseless patient Spider
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 by: Timothy Chow - Tue, 6 Sep 2022 13:14 UTC

XGID=-CBBBbB--B-------b-bcBabc-:1:1:1:22:0:0:0:0:10

X:Player 1 O:Player 2
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| O | | O O X O O O |
| O | | O O X O O |
| | | O O |
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | |
| | | X | +---+
| X | | X O X X X X | | 2 |
| X | | X O X X X X | +---+
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 93 O: 93 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 2, X own cube
X to play 22

---
Tim Chow

Re: That sound you hear? It's a board crunching

<tf7pvn$3uitq$2@dont-email.me>

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From: ah_c...@ymail.com (ah...Clem)
Newsgroups: rec.games.backgammon
Subject: Re: That sound you hear? It's a board crunching
Date: Tue, 6 Sep 2022 11:45:57 -0400
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 by: ah...Clem - Tue, 6 Sep 2022 15:45 UTC

On 9/6/2022 9:14 AM, Timothy Chow wrote:
> XGID=-CBBBbB--B-------b-bcBabc-:1:1:1:22:0:0:0:0:10
>
> X:Player 1   O:Player 2
> Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
>  +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
>  |             O    |   | O  O  X  O  O  O |
>  |             O    |   | O  O  X     O  O |
>  |                  |   |    O           O |
>  |                  |   |                  |
>  |                  |   |                  |
>  |                  |BAR|                  |
>  |                  |   |                  |
>  |                  |   |                  |
>  |                  |   |                X | +---+
>  |          X       |   | X  O  X  X  X  X | | 2 |
>  |          X       |   | X  O  X  X  X  X | +---+
>  +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
> Pip count  X: 93  O: 93 X-O: 0-0
> Cube: 2, X own cube
> X to play 22
>

Race is even, so keeping the blocking point seems thematic. 6/2(2).

Re: That sound you hear? It's a board crunching

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Subject: Re: That sound you hear? It's a board crunching
From: bananabo...@gmail.com (Stick Rice)
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 by: Stick Rice - Tue, 6 Sep 2022 17:46 UTC

On Tuesday, September 6, 2022 at 11:46:01 AM UTC-4, ah...Clem wrote:
> On 9/6/2022 9:14 AM, Timothy Chow wrote:
> > XGID=-CBBBbB--B-------b-bcBabc-:1:1:1:22:0:0:0:0:10
> >
> > X:Player 1 O:Player 2
> > Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
> > +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
> > | O | | O O X O O O |
> > | O | | O O X O O |
> > | | | O O |
> > | | | |
> > | | | |
> > | |BAR| |
> > | | | |
> > | | | |
> > | | | X | +---+
> > | X | | X O X X X X | | 2 |
> > | X | | X O X X X X | +---+
> > +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
> > Pip count X: 93 O: 93 X-O: 0-0
> > Cube: 2, X own cube
> > X to play 22
> >
> Race is even, so keeping the blocking point seems thematic. 6/2(2).

Right play maybe, wrong reasoning I'd guess.

Stick

Re: That sound you hear? It's a board crunching

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Subject: Re: That sound you hear? It's a board crunching
From: pepste...@gmail.com (peps...@gmail.com)
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 by: peps...@gmail.com - Thu, 8 Sep 2022 09:16 UTC

On Tuesday, September 6, 2022 at 2:14:44 PM UTC+1, Tim Chow wrote:
> XGID=-CBBBbB--B-------b-bcBabc-:1:1:1:22:0:0:0:0:10
>
> X:Player 1 O:Player 2
> Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
> +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
> | O | | O O X O O O |
> | O | | O O X O O |
> | | | O O |
> | | | |
> | | | |
> | |BAR| |
> | | | |
> | | | |
> | | | X | +---+
> | X | | X O X X X X | | 2 |
> | X | | X O X X X X | +---+
> +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
> Pip count X: 93 O: 93 X-O: 0-0
> Cube: 2, X own cube
> X to play 22
>
> ---
> Tim Chow
I can't recall Stick ever being wrong so 6/2(2) must be right.
I'm also not at all sure that I would have played this.

But I think I know the main reasons that this is correct.
Let's look at the other candidates: 4/2(2) 3/1(2) is just too ugly.
Hopefully, I wouldn't have played this even if I didn't have the solution in front of me.
A strong board is likely to become useful and we have no reason to destroy it.
Plays with 9/7(2) work badly if the opponent's next roll has no aces or twos.
So 4/9 of the time, the opponent brings their rear checkers into the outfield, making our own
escape difficult. I don't think I would have been terribly surprised if this play was right, though.
It is correct that the blocking point is useful.
One deficit of the correct play is that it wastes 4 pips which is expensive in an even race.
So "the race is close" could also be an argument against the correct play -- maybe that's what
Stick meant with his wrong-reason zinger.

Paul

Rollout: That sound you hear? It's a board crunching

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From: tchow12...@yahoo.com (Timothy Chow)
Newsgroups: rec.games.backgammon
Subject: Rollout: That sound you hear? It's a board crunching
Date: Thu, 8 Sep 2022 08:47:06 -0400
Organization: A noiseless patient Spider
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 by: Timothy Chow - Thu, 8 Sep 2022 12:47 UTC

XGID=-CBBBbB--B-------b-bcBabc-:1:1:1:22:0:0:0:0:10

X:Player 1 O:Player 2
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| O | | O O X O O O |
| O | | O O X O O |
| | | O O |
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | |
| | | X | +---+
| X | | X O X X X X | | 2 |
| X | | X O X X X X | +---+
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 93 O: 93 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 2, X own cube
X to play 22

Keeping the 9pt with 6/2(2) is double-edged. It will give X better
chances of getting and hitting a shot, because it will be hard for O
to jump both of her back checkers over X's 9pt. At the same time,
it risks giving O better chances of getting and hitting a shot,
because the 9pt is hard to clear safely.

According to the rollout below, 6/4(2) is better. The fact that O's
board has already started to crumble plays a role; see the variant.
If X gets hit then he may have a chance to hit back from the bar, or
at least will have an easier time entering against a four-point board
than a five-point board.

1. Rollout¹ 6/2(2) eq:-0.069
Player: 41.73% (G:5.17% B:0.08%)
Opponent: 58.27% (G:10.43% B:0.37%)
Confidence: ±0.006 (-0.075..-0.063) - [100.0%]

2. Rollout¹ 9/7(2) 6/4(2) eq:-0.124 (-0.055)
Player: 39.40% (G:3.67% B:0.05%)
Opponent: 60.60% (G:7.99% B:0.24%)
Confidence: ±0.006 (-0.130..-0.118) - [0.0%]

3. Rollout¹ 9/7(2) 4/2(2) eq:-0.155 (-0.086)
Player: 38.10% (G:3.09% B:0.04%)
Opponent: 61.90% (G:8.18% B:0.28%)
Confidence: ±0.006 (-0.161..-0.149) - [0.0%]

4. Rollout¹ 9/7(2) 3/1(2) eq:-0.155 (-0.086)
Player: 38.05% (G:2.84% B:0.04%)
Opponent: 61.95% (G:7.75% B:0.25%)
Confidence: ±0.006 (-0.161..-0.150) - [0.0%]

¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.207.pre-release

-------
Variant
-------

XGID=-CBBBbB--B-------b-bcBbbb-:1:1:1:22:0:0:0:0:10

X:Player 1 O:Player 2
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| O | | O O X O O O |
| O | | O O X O O O |
| | | O |
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | |
| | | X | +---+
| X | | X O X X X X | | 2 |
| X | | X O X X X X | +---+
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 93 O: 95 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 2, X own cube
X to play 22

1. Rollout¹ 9/7(2) 6/4(2) eq:-0.238
Player: 35.49% (G:2.58% B:0.03%)
Opponent: 64.51% (G:9.90% B:0.37%)
Confidence: ±0.006 (-0.244..-0.232) - [100.0%]

2. Rollout¹ 6/2(2) eq:-0.253 (-0.015)
Player: 35.71% (G:3.39% B:0.04%)
Opponent: 64.29% (G:12.32% B:0.39%)
Confidence: ±0.006 (-0.259..-0.247) - [0.0%]

¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.207.pre-release

---
Tim Chow

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