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Live within your income, even if you have to borrow to do so. -- Josh Billings

interests / rec.games.backgammon / Volunteer a shot?

Volunteer a shot?

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From: tchow12...@yahoo.com (Timothy Chow)
Newsgroups: rec.games.backgammon
Subject: Volunteer a shot?
Date: Thu, 8 Sep 2022 08:48:27 -0400
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by: Timothy Chow - Thu, 8 Sep 2022 12:48 UTC

XGID=-BB-BABbB----B-----bcBbdb-:0:0:1:21:0:0:0:0:10

X:Player 1 O:Player 2
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X | | O O X O O O |
| X | | O O X O O O |
| | | O O |
| | | O |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | |
| | | |
| X O | | X X X X |
| X O | | X X X X X |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 115 O: 79 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X to play 21

---
Tim Chow

Re: Volunteer a shot?

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From: ah_c...@ymail.com (ah....Clem)
Newsgroups: rec.games.backgammon
Subject: Re: Volunteer a shot?
Date: Thu, 8 Sep 2022 10:31:29 -0400
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by: ah....Clem - Thu, 8 Sep 2022 14:31 UTC

On 9/8/2022 8:48 AM, Timothy Chow wrote:
> XGID=-BB-BABbB----B-----bcBbdb-:0:0:1:21:0:0:0:0:10
>
> X:Player 1   O:Player 2
> Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
> +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
> | X                |   | O O X O O O |
> | X                |   | O O X O O O |
> |                  |   |    O        O    |
> |                  |   |             O    |
> |                  |   |                  |
> |                  |BAR|                  |
> |                  |   |                  |
> |                  |   |                  |
> |                  |   |                  |
> |             X O |   | X     X     X X |
> |             X O |   | X X X     X X |
> +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
> Pip count X: 115 O: 79 X-O: 0-0
> Cube: 1
> X to play 21

"Don't volunteer a shot in a holding game" is usually correct. Here, X
has an advanced anchor, 8/5 only leaves 11 shots, and the five point
makes for a very strong board right as O is about to be forced off the
anchor. Seems sound.

But I'm not sure, so I'll go with another aphorism and just make the
five point.

--
Ah....Clem
The future is fun, the future is fair.

Rollout: Volunteer a shot?

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From: tchow12...@yahoo.com (Timothy Chow)
Newsgroups: rec.games.backgammon
Subject: Rollout: Volunteer a shot?
Date: Sat, 10 Sep 2022 08:14:02 -0400
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by: Timothy Chow - Sat, 10 Sep 2022 12:14 UTC

XGID=-BB-BABbB----B-----bcBbdb-:0:0:1:21:0:0:0:0:10

O has a five-point board, so getting hit is pretty bad here. On the
other hand, wrecking his board sacrifices considerable winning chances,
since X's main hope here is to hit a shot and hope that O dances. The
rollout below says that playing safe is a massive blunder here.

1. Rollout¹ 8/5 eq:+0.069
Player: 49.84% (G:12.68% B:0.41%)
Opponent: 50.16% (G:14.75% B:0.11%)
Confidence: ±0.010 (+0.059..+0.080) - [100.0%]

2. Rollout¹ 6/5 6/4 eq:-0.103 (-0.172)
Player: 46.22% (G:9.27% B:0.28%)
Opponent: 53.78% (G:11.05% B:0.20%)
Confidence: ±0.009 (-0.112..-0.094) - [0.0%]

3. Rollout¹ 5/3 4/3 eq:-0.106 (-0.176)
Player: 46.79% (G:10.70% B:0.27%)
Opponent: 53.21% (G:13.59% B:0.31%)
Confidence: ±0.009 (-0.116..-0.097) - [0.0%]

¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.207.pre-release

---
Tim Chow

Subject	Author
Volunteer a shot?	Timothy Chow
Re: Volunteer a shot?	ah....Clem
Rollout: Volunteer a shot?	Timothy Chow