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interests / rec.games.backgammon / Which hit?

SubjectAuthor
* Which hit?Timothy Chow
+* Re: Which hit?ah....Clem
|`- Re: Which hit?Stick Rice
`- Rollout: Which hit?Timothy Chow

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Which hit?

<tfnbag$28t4h$2@dont-email.me>

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From: tchow12...@yahoo.com (Timothy Chow)
Newsgroups: rec.games.backgammon
Subject: Which hit?
Date: Mon, 12 Sep 2022 09:13:52 -0400
Organization: A noiseless patient Spider
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 by: Timothy Chow - Mon, 12 Sep 2022 13:13 UTC

XGID=---Ba-CaCBa-bC---bbbb-bA-A:0:0:1:21:0:0:0:0:10

X:Player 1 O:Player 2
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O O | | O O O X |
| X O O | | O O O |
| X | | |
| | | |
| | X | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | |
| X | | X |
| O X X | | X X |
| O O X X O | | X O X |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 153 O: 138 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X to play 21

---
Tim Chow

Re: Which hit?

<tfnilt$29hlv$1@dont-email.me>

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From: ah_c...@ymail.com (ah....Clem)
Newsgroups: rec.games.backgammon
Subject: Re: Which hit?
Date: Mon, 12 Sep 2022 11:19:24 -0400
Organization: The Future Fair
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 by: ah....Clem - Mon, 12 Sep 2022 15:19 UTC

On 9/12/2022 9:13 AM, Timothy Chow wrote:
> XGID=---Ba-CaCBa-bC---bbbb-bA-A:0:0:1:21:0:0:0:0:10
>
> X:Player 1   O:Player 2
> Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
>  +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
>  | X           O  O |   | O  O     O  X    |
>  | X           O  O |   | O  O     O       |
>  | X                |   |                  |
>  |                  |   |                  |
>  |                  | X |                  |
>  |                  |BAR|                  |
>  |                  |   |                  |
>  |                  |   |                  |
>  |             X    |   | X                |
>  | O        X  X    |   | X        X       |
>  | O     O  X  X  O |   | X     O  X       |
>  +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
> Pip count  X: 153  O: 138 X-O: 0-0
> Cube: 1
> X to play 21

Hitting loose on the seven is usually better than hitting loose in the
homeboard and exposing a direct shot. I don't know that making the
deuce point anchor is better than entering with the ace and giving more
chances to spring a checker of make the four point anchor. Perhaps
bar/24 9/7* is the right idea?

Not sure, so I'll just make the "obvious" play and await an explanation
of why it's wrong. bar/23 8/7*

--
Ah....Clem
The future is fun, the future is fair.

Re: Which hit?

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Subject: Re: Which hit?
From: bananabo...@gmail.com (Stick Rice)
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 by: Stick Rice - Mon, 12 Sep 2022 22:22 UTC

On Monday, September 12, 2022 at 11:19:27 AM UTC-4, ah....Clem wrote:
> On 9/12/2022 9:13 AM, Timothy Chow wrote:
> > XGID=---Ba-CaCBa-bC---bbbb-bA-A:0:0:1:21:0:0:0:0:10
> >
> > X:Player 1 O:Player 2
> > Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
> > +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
> > | X O O | | O O O X |
> > | X O O | | O O O |
> > | X | | |
> > | | | |
> > | | X | |
> > | |BAR| |
> > | | | |
> > | | | |
> > | X | | X |
> > | O X X | | X X |
> > | O O X X O | | X O X |
> > +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
> > Pip count X: 153 O: 138 X-O: 0-0
> > Cube: 1
> > X to play 21
> Hitting loose on the seven is usually better than hitting loose in the
> homeboard and exposing a direct shot. I don't know that making the
> deuce point anchor is better than entering with the ace and giving more
> chances to spring a checker of make the four point anchor. Perhaps
> bar/24 9/7* is the right idea?
>
> Not sure, so I'll just make the "obvious" play and await an explanation
> of why it's wrong. bar/23 8/7*
>
> --
> Ah....Clem
> The future is fun, the future is fair.

The reason 23, 7* is wrong is you basically prime yourself.

Stick

Rollout: Which hit?

<tfsflk$2ual9$1@dont-email.me>

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From: tchow12...@yahoo.com (Timothy Chow)
Newsgroups: rec.games.backgammon
Subject: Rollout: Which hit?
Date: Wed, 14 Sep 2022 07:58:43 -0400
Organization: A noiseless patient Spider
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 by: Timothy Chow - Wed, 14 Sep 2022 11:58 UTC

XGID=---Ba-CaCBa-bC---bbbb-bA-A:0:0:1:21:0:0:0:0:10

X:Player 1 O:Player 2
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O O | | O O O X |
| X O O | | O O O |
| X | | |
| | | |
| | X | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | |
| X | | X |
| O X X | | X X |
| O O X X O | | X O X |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 153 O: 138 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X to play 21

The subject line is deliberately misleading. XG does not hit. In this
position, what should be uppermost in your mind is dealing with O's
priming threat.

Having said that, I should say that at gammon go, XG does hit. Although
8/7* is the "safer" hit, once again safety is less important than
keeping your back checkers split, so that they have a better chance of
escaping from behind O's prime.

1. Rollout¹ Bar/24 23/21 eq:-0.636
Player: 33.84% (G:8.28% B:0.37%)
Opponent: 66.16% (G:19.63% B:0.91%)
Confidence: ±0.009 (-0.645..-0.627) - [100.0%]

2. Rollout¹ Bar/24 6/4* eq:-0.707 (-0.072)
Player: 33.56% (G:10.31% B:0.52%)
Opponent: 66.44% (G:24.10% B:1.71%)
Confidence: ±0.010 (-0.718..-0.697) - [0.0%]

3. Rollout¹ Bar/23 8/7* eq:-0.742 (-0.106)
Player: 31.58% (G:8.64% B:0.40%)
Opponent: 68.42% (G:19.77% B:1.20%)
Confidence: ±0.010 (-0.752..-0.732) - [0.0%]

¹ 5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.207.pre-release

---
Tim Chow

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