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interests / rec.games.backgammon / Re: Rollout Does Pottle's law apply herre?

SubjectAuthor
* Does Pottle's law apply herre?ah....Clem
+- Re: Does Pottle's law apply herre?Timothy Chow
`- Re: Rollout Does Pottle's law apply herre?ah....Clem

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Does Pottle's law apply herre?

<tfctn5$o6n8$1@dont-email.me>

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From: ah_c...@ymail.com (ah....Clem)
Newsgroups: rec.games.backgammon
Subject: Does Pottle's law apply herre?
Date: Thu, 8 Sep 2022 10:20:20 -0400
Organization: The Future Fair
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 by: ah....Clem - Thu, 8 Sep 2022 14:20 UTC

And if so, is it the right move?

XGID=--b-BBD-B--AbC---e-db--A--:1:-1:1:32:0:0:3:0:10

X:Player 1 O:Player 2
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game, Jacoby Beaver
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O | | O O X | +---+
| X O | | O O | | 2 |
| X O | | O | +---+
| O | | O |
| O | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | X |
| | | X |
| O X | | X X X O |
| O X X | | X X X O |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 131 O: 146 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 2, O own cube
X to play 32

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

--
Ah....Clem
The future is fun, the future is fair.

Re: Does Pottle's law apply herre?

<tffb3b$11pk4$1@dont-email.me>

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From: tchow12...@yahoo.com (Timothy Chow)
Newsgroups: rec.games.backgammon
Subject: Re: Does Pottle's law apply herre?
Date: Fri, 9 Sep 2022 08:20:59 -0400
Organization: A noiseless patient Spider
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In-Reply-To: <tfctn5$o6n8$1@dont-email.me>
 by: Timothy Chow - Fri, 9 Sep 2022 12:20 UTC

On 9/8/2022 10:20 AM, ah....Clem wrote:
>
> And if so, is it the right move?
>
>
>
> XGID=--b-BBD-B--AbC---e-db--A--:1:-1:1:32:0:0:3:0:10
>
> X:Player 1   O:Player 2
> Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game, Jacoby Beaver
>  +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
>  | X           O    |   | O  O        X    | +---+
>  | X           O    |   | O  O             | | 2 |
>  | X           O    |   | O                | +---+
>  |             O    |   | O                |
>  |             O    |   |                  |
>  |                  |BAR|                  |
>  |                  |   |                  |
>  |                  |   | X                |
>  |                  |   | X                |
>  | O           X    |   | X  X  X     O    |
>  | O  X        X    |   | X  X  X     O    |
>  +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
> Pip count  X: 131  O: 146 X-O: 0-0
> Cube: 2, O own cube
> X to play 32

X is well ahead in the race here, so running the last checker
is strategically the right idea. If X had rolled something
that would let him run to the 14pt/15pt/16pt, then I would
Pottle without hesitation. Here it's not as obvious, but
the 23pt is not a great place to sit, so I would certainly
step up with 23/21 at least. After that, 11/8 is the main
alternative to 21/18, but I would play 23/18 since it doesn't
seem any more dangerous than sitting on the 21pt.

---
Tim Chow

Re: Rollout Does Pottle's law apply herre?

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From: ah_c...@ymail.com (ah....Clem)
Newsgroups: rec.games.backgammon
Subject: Re: Rollout Does Pottle's law apply herre?
Date: Mon, 12 Sep 2022 10:19:26 -0400
Organization: The Future Fair
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 by: ah....Clem - Mon, 12 Sep 2022 14:19 UTC

I usually think of Pottle's law as applying when you can run the last
*meaningfully* (i.e. checker past the eight point), but I don't know
where I got that from or whether it's part of the aphorism.

I'm also not sure whether stepping up to the edge of the prime while
safteying an outfield blot and placing a spare on the eight point counts
as "very constructive".

But it seemed close enough to "very constructive" that I opted for that
instead of running out to the bar point. XG favors that play, but only
at the 98% confidence level after 1296 trials. So it's very close.

In the variant, I've given X a 52 to play instead of 32 and Pottling is
quite clear.

XGID=--b-BBD-B--AbC---e-db--A--:1:-1:1:32:0:0:3:0:10

X:Player 1 O:Player 2
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game, Jacoby Beaver
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O | | O O X | +---+
| X O | | O O | | 2 |
| X O | | O | +---+
| O | | O |
| O | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | X |
| | | X |
| O X | | X X X O |
| O X X | | X X X O |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 131 O: 146 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 2, O own cube
X to play 32

1. Rollout¹ 23/21 11/8 eq:+0.304
Player: 66.93% (G:15.52% B:0.78%)
Opponent: 33.07% (G:7.65% B:0.21%)
Confidence: ±0.008 (+0.296..+0.312) - [98.1%]
Duration: 3 minutes 44 seconds

2. Rollout¹ 23/18 eq:+0.293 (-0.012)
Player: 67.14% (G:13.97% B:0.65%)
Opponent: 32.86% (G:7.55% B:0.29%)
Confidence: ±0.007 (+0.285..+0.300) - [1.9%]
Duration: 3 minutes 48 seconds

Opponent: 35.16% (G:7.81% B:0.19%)

¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

>
////////////////////
//variant
///////////////////

XGID=--b-BBD-B--AbC---e-db--A--:1:-1:1:52:0:0:3:0:10

X:Player 1 O:Player 2
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game, Jacoby Beaver
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O | | O O X | +---+
| X O | | O O | | 2 |
| X O | | O | +---+
| O | | O |
| O | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | X |
| | | X |
| O X | | X X X O |
| O X X | | X X X O |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 131 O: 146 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 2, O own cube
X to play 52

1. XG Roller++ 23/16 eq:+0.407
Player: 71.79% (G:11.48% B:0.48%)
Opponent: 28.21% (G:4.73% B:0.14%)

2. XG Roller++ 23/18 13/11 eq:+0.336 (-0.071)
Player: 68.62% (G:13.29% B:0.58%)
Opponent: 31.38% (G:6.19% B:0.20%)

Opponent: 32.90% (G:7.22% B:0.19%)

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

--
Ah....Clem
The future is fun, the future is fair.

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