XGID=ab-BBBDB---Ac-B--bbc-b----:1:-1:1:62:0:0:3:0:10

X:Player 1 O:Player 2
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game, Jacoby Beaver
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O O | | O O | +---+
| X O O | | O O | | 2 |
| | | O | +---+
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | O | |
| | | X |
| O | | X |
| O X | | X X X X O |
| O X X | | X X X X O |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 101 O: 168 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 2, O own cube
X to play 62

--
Ah....Clem
The future is fun, the future is fair.

On Wednesday, September 14, 2022 at 10:37:03 AM UTC-4, ah....Clem wrote:
> XGID=ab-BBBDB---Ac-B--bbc-b----:1:-1:1:62:0:0:3:0:10
>
> X:Player 1 O:Player 2
> Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game, Jacoby Beaver
> +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
> | X O O | | O O | +---+
> | X O O | | O O | | 2 |
> | | | O | +---+
> | | | |
> | | | |
> | |BAR| |
> | | O | |
> | | | X |
> | O | | X |
> | O X | | X X X X O |
> | O X X | | X X X X O |
> +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
> Pip count X: 101 O: 168 X-O: 0-0
> Cube: 2, O own cube
> X to play 62
>
>
> --
> Ah....Clem
> The future is fun, the future is fair.

I would pay later since so, so often we don't have to *pay at all. If we moved our outfield point back one pip to the 16pt then I'd pay now as it would be much harder to clear in the future.

Stick

On 9/14/2022 10:37 AM, ah....Clem wrote:
> XGID=ab-BBBDB---Ac-B--bbc-b----:1:-1:1:62:0:0:3:0:10
>
> X:Player 1   O:Player 2
> Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game, Jacoby Beaver
>  +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
>  |    X        O  O |   | O     O          | +---+
>  |    X        O  O |   | O     O          | | 2 |
>  |                  |   | O                | +---+
>  |                  |   |                  |
>  |                  |   |                  |
>  |                  |BAR|                  |
>  |                  | O |                  |
>  |                  |   | X                |
>  | O                |   | X                |
>  | O              X |   | X  X  X  X     O |
>  | O  X           X |   | X  X  X  X     O |
>  +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
> Pip count  X: 101  O: 168 X-O: 0-0
> Cube: 2, O own cube
> X to play 62

I don't think of this as (primarily) a pay now or pay later
position. Primarily, this is blitz. We'd like to make our 2pt.
Ignoring the question of how many shots we leave for a moment,
what's the best way to get more builders for the 2pt? The two
candidates I see are 14/8 6/4 and 11/5 6/4, and they look about
equally good from the perspective of making the 2pt. So as a
tiebreaker, I'd choose the play that leaves fewer shots: 11/5 6/4.

---
Tim Chow

On Thursday, September 15, 2022 at 9:07:13 AM UTC-4, Tim Chow wrote:
> On 9/14/2022 10:37 AM, ah....Clem wrote:
> > XGID=ab-BBBDB---Ac-B--bbc-b----:1:-1:1:62:0:0:3:0:10
> >
> > X:Player 1 O:Player 2
> > Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game, Jacoby Beaver
> > +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
> > | X O O | | O O | +---+
> > | X O O | | O O | | 2 |
> > | | | O | +---+
> > | | | |
> > | | | |
> > | |BAR| |
> > | | O | |
> > | | | X |
> > | O | | X |
> > | O X | | X X X X O |
> > | O X X | | X X X X O |
> > +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
> > Pip count X: 101 O: 168 X-O: 0-0
> > Cube: 2, O own cube
> > X to play 62
> I don't think of this as (primarily) a pay now or pay later
> position. Primarily, this is blitz. We'd like to make our 2pt.
> Ignoring the question of how many shots we leave for a moment,
> what's the best way to get more builders for the 2pt? The two
> candidates I see are 14/8 6/4 and 11/5 6/4, and they look about
> equally good from the perspective of making the 2pt. So as a
> tiebreaker, I'd choose the play that leaves fewer shots: 11/5 6/4.
>
> ---
> Tim Chow

It's not a blitz though in the sense of us doing any real blitzing. Will we win a lot of gammons? Of course, but the blitzing is essentially over. Hard to blitz when the guy has an anchor and we've already made almost all of the points and there are no other blots hanging around to be picked up. If blitzing was the idea then in my variant your play of 5, 4 would remain correct and I don't think it will be.

Stick

On Thursday, September 15, 2022 at 9:01:26 PM UTC+1, Stick Rice wrote:
> On Thursday, September 15, 2022 at 9:07:13 AM UTC-4, Tim Chow wrote:
> > On 9/14/2022 10:37 AM, ah....Clem wrote:
> > > XGID=ab-BBBDB---Ac-B--bbc-b----:1:-1:1:62:0:0:3:0:10
> > >
> > > X:Player 1 O:Player 2
> > > Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game, Jacoby Beaver
> > > +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
> > > | X O O | | O O | +---+
> > > | X O O | | O O | | 2 |
> > > | | | O | +---+
> > > | | | |
> > > | | | |
> > > | |BAR| |
> > > | | O | |
> > > | | | X |
> > > | O | | X |
> > > | O X | | X X X X O |
> > > | O X X | | X X X X O |
> > > +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
> > > Pip count X: 101 O: 168 X-O: 0-0
> > > Cube: 2, O own cube
> > > X to play 62
> > I don't think of this as (primarily) a pay now or pay later
> > position. Primarily, this is blitz. We'd like to make our 2pt.
> > Ignoring the question of how many shots we leave for a moment,
> > what's the best way to get more builders for the 2pt? The two
> > candidates I see are 14/8 6/4 and 11/5 6/4, and they look about
> > equally good from the perspective of making the 2pt. So as a
> > tiebreaker, I'd choose the play that leaves fewer shots: 11/5 6/4.
> >
> > ---
> > Tim Chow
> It's not a blitz though in the sense of us doing any real blitzing. Will we win a lot of gammons? Of course, but the blitzing is essentially over. Hard to blitz when the guy has an anchor and we've already made almost all of the points and there are no other blots hanging around to be picked up. If blitzing was the idea then in my variant your play of 5, 4 would remain correct and I don't think it will be.

My thinking is exactly the same as Tim's. My aim is to fill in the two point and then bring my other checkers around to beat my opponent's acepoint game, and my play is 11/5 6/4 too.
(I opted for this play, Waltishly, before reading his post).
I do see this as a blitz, but that's a matter of terminology. To me, a blitz is where your opponent dances a lot and you bring your checkers around while this is happening.

But ideally, I'd like to call this a blintz. If we could call this a blintz, and I was in a chouette, I could say "Is this a position where we do blintzes?"
Then if people said yes, I would request them, and they taste delicious.

Therefore, this is actually a blintz.

Paul

On 9/15/2022 4:01 PM, Stick Rice wrote:

> It's not a blitz though in the sense of us doing any real blitzing. Will we win a lot of gammons? Of course, but the blitzing is essentially over. Hard to blitz when the guy has an anchor and we've already made almost all of the points and there are no other blots hanging around to be picked up. If blitzing was the idea then in my variant your play of 5, 4 would remain correct and I don't think it will be.
>

Is your variant back one pip to the 15pt, or back two pips
to the 16pt? (You said "back one pip to the 16pt" but the
outfield checkers are on the 14pt.)

---
Tim Chow

On Thursday, September 15, 2022 at 10:02:46 PM UTC-4, Tim Chow wrote:
> On 9/15/2022 4:01 PM, Stick Rice wrote:
>
> > It's not a blitz though in the sense of us doing any real blitzing. Will we win a lot of gammons? Of course, but the blitzing is essentially over. Hard to blitz when the guy has an anchor and we've already made almost all of the points and there are no other blots hanging around to be picked up. If blitzing was the idea then in my variant your play of 5, 4 would remain correct and I don't think it will be.
> >
> Is your variant back one pip to the 15pt, or back two pips
> to the 16pt? (You said "back one pip to the 16pt" but the
> outfield checkers are on the 14pt.)
>
> ---
> Tim Chow

Either should do it, one more than the other obv.

Stick

Not a lot of equity at stake here. The main idea is that X wants to make
the deuce point so position the checkers to make that most likely.

Whether to "pay now" by clearing the 14 point is somewhat of a red
herring. 11/5 narrowly edges 14/8 with the 2 being played 6/4.

I spent too much mental energy stressing over the pay now vs pay later
decision when simply playing to fill in the board is the theme here.

But, as Stick observes, were the rearmost point more difficult to clear
then paying now is the right idea. XGR++ analysis of the variant
position (relocating the checkers on the 14 to the 15) is below.

XGID=ab-BBBDB---Ac-B--bbc-b----:1:-1:1:62:0:0:3:0:10

X:Player 1 O:Player 2
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game, Jacoby Beaver
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O O | | O O | +---+
| X O O | | O O | | 2 |
| | | O | +---+
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | O | |
| | | X |
| O | | X |
| O X | | X X X X O |
| O X X | | X X X X O |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 101 O: 168 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 2, O own cube
X to play 62

1. Rollout¹ 11/5 6/4 eq:+0.864
Player: 75.85% (G:41.17% B:5.47%)
Opponent: 24.15% (G:1.32% B:0.06%)
Confidence: ±0.009 (+0.855..+0.874) - [94.1%]
Duration: 3 minutes 40 seconds

2. Rollout¹ 14/8 6/4 eq:+0.854 (-0.011)
Player: 75.67% (G:40.94% B:5.68%)
Opponent: 24.33% (G:1.67% B:0.08%)
Confidence: ±0.010 (+0.844..+0.864) - [5.9%]
Duration: 3 minutes 35 seconds

3. Rollout¹ 14/8 11/9 eq:+0.836 (-0.029)
Player: 75.26% (G:40.06% B:5.41%)
Opponent: 24.74% (G:1.65% B:0.08%)
Confidence: ±0.009 (+0.826..+0.845) - [0.0%]
Duration: 3 minutes 16 seconds

4. Rollout¹ 11/3 eq:+0.821 (-0.043)
Player: 74.72% (G:39.70% B:5.20%)
Opponent: 25.28% (G:1.60% B:0.07%)
Confidence: ±0.009 (+0.812..+0.830) - [0.0%]
Duration: 3 minutes 21 seconds

5. Rollout¹ 14/6 eq:+0.814 (-0.050)
Player: 74.76% (G:39.08% B:5.31%)
Opponent: 25.24% (G:1.57% B:0.06%)
Confidence: ±0.009 (+0.805..+0.823) - [0.0%]
Duration: 3 minutes 22 seconds

¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

///////////////////
/* variant
///////////////////

XGID=ab-BBBDB---Ac--B-bbc-b----:1:-1:1:62:0:0:3:0:10

X:Player 1 O:Player 2
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game, Jacoby Beaver
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O O | | O O | +---+
| X O O | | O O | | 2 |
| | | O | +---+
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | O | |
| | | X |
| O | | X |
| O X | | X X X X O |
| O X X | | X X X X O |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 103 O: 168 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 2, O own cube
X to play 62

1. XG Roller++ 15/13 15/9 eq:+0.876
Player: 76.23% (G:39.95% B:4.72%)
Opponent: 23.77% (G:1.14% B:0.05%)

2. XG Roller++ 15/9 6/4 eq:+0.862 (-0.014)
Player: 75.64% (G:39.90% B:4.99%)
Opponent: 24.36% (G:1.32% B:0.05%)

3. XG Roller++ 15/7 eq:+0.846 (-0.030)
Player: 75.32% (G:39.33% B:4.70%)
Opponent: 24.68% (G:1.34% B:0.05%)

4. XG Roller++ 11/5 6/4 eq:+0.843 (-0.032)
Player: 75.00% (G:39.70% B:4.94%)
Opponent: 25.00% (G:1.44% B:0.05%)

5. XG Roller++ 15/9 11/9 eq:+0.841 (-0.034)
Player: 75.30% (G:38.88% B:4.74%)
Opponent: 24.70% (G:1.31% B:0.05%)

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

--
Ah....Clem
The future is fun, the future is fair.