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interests / rec.games.backgammon / Rollout: How strong is a five-prime?

SubjectAuthor
* How strong is a five-prime?Timothy Chow
+* Re: How strong is a five-prime?ah....Clem
|`- Re: How strong is a five-prime?Stick Rice
`- Rollout: How strong is a five-prime?Timothy Chow

1
How strong is a five-prime?

<tfpuf1$2j5oe$2@dont-email.me>

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From: tchow12...@yahoo.com (Timothy Chow)
Newsgroups: rec.games.backgammon
Subject: How strong is a five-prime?
Date: Tue, 13 Sep 2022 08:52:49 -0400
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 by: Timothy Chow - Tue, 13 Sep 2022 12:52 UTC

XGID=-a--BCBBBb---D---a-bbbbba-:0:0:1:00:0:0:0:0:10

X:Player 1 O:Player 2
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O | | O O O O O O |
| X | | O O O O O |
| X | | |
| X | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | |
| | | X |
| O X X | | X X X |
| O X X | | X X X O |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 117 O: 105 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X on roll, cube action

---
Tim Chow

Re: How strong is a five-prime?

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From: ah_c...@ymail.com (ah....Clem)
Newsgroups: rec.games.backgammon
Subject: Re: How strong is a five-prime?
Date: Tue, 13 Sep 2022 10:06:13 -0400
Organization: The Future Fair
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In-Reply-To: <tfpuf1$2j5oe$2@dont-email.me>
 by: ah....Clem - Tue, 13 Sep 2022 14:06 UTC

On 9/13/2022 8:52 AM, Timothy Chow wrote:
> XGID=-a--BCBBBb---D---a-bbbbba-:0:0:1:00:0:0:0:0:10
>
> X:Player 1   O:Player 2
> Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
>  +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
>  | X           O    |   | O  O  O  O  O  O |
>  | X                |   | O  O  O  O  O    |
>  | X                |   |                  |
>  | X                |   |                  |
>  |                  |   |                  |
>  |                  |BAR|                  |
>  |                  |   |                  |
>  |                  |   |                  |
>  |                  |   |    X             |
>  |          O  X  X |   | X  X  X          |
>  |          O  X  X |   | X  X  X        O |
>  +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
> Pip count  X: 117  O: 105 X-O: 0-0
> Cube: 1
> X on roll, cube action

I've found five primes to be very strong when the opponent is not at the
edge.

Here, X is not in danger of being forced to leave a shot (64 is probably
played as POH instead of 13/3), has a good chance of making the full
prime or hitting a blot as O is forced off the nine or attacking the
straggler. If the latter, gammons are a serious possibility. So ship
it for sure.

Can O take? Race lead, strong board, 62 leaps out, so looks like she
can. D/T.

--
Ah....Clem
The future is fun, the future is fair.

Re: How strong is a five-prime?

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Subject: Re: How strong is a five-prime?
From: bananabo...@gmail.com (Stick Rice)
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 by: Stick Rice - Wed, 14 Sep 2022 19:59 UTC

On Tuesday, September 13, 2022 at 10:06:16 AM UTC-4, ah....Clem wrote:
> On 9/13/2022 8:52 AM, Timothy Chow wrote:
> > XGID=-a--BCBBBb---D---a-bbbbba-:0:0:1:00:0:0:0:0:10
> >
> > X:Player 1 O:Player 2
> > Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
> > +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
> > | X O | | O O O O O O |
> > | X | | O O O O O |
> > | X | | |
> > | X | | |
> > | | | |
> > | |BAR| |
> > | | | |
> > | | | |
> > | | | X |
> > | O X X | | X X X |
> > | O X X | | X X X O |
> > +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
> > Pip count X: 117 O: 105 X-O: 0-0
> > Cube: 1
> > X on roll, cube action
> I've found five primes to be very strong when the opponent is not at the
> edge.
>
> Here, X is not in danger of being forced to leave a shot (64 is probably
> played as POH instead of 13/3), has a good chance of making the full
> prime or hitting a blot as O is forced off the nine or attacking the
> straggler. If the latter, gammons are a serious possibility. So ship
> it for sure.
>
> Can O take? Race lead, strong board, 62 leaps out, so looks like she
> can. D/T.
>
> --
> Ah....Clem
> The future is fun, the future is fair.

[21] leaves a shot, [31] leaves a shot (perhaps directly, perhaps indirectly like [64] which should definitely not be used to make the ace point). You've found five primes to be strong when the opponent isn't at the edge, and not saying this position isn't strong, but I imagine the group of positions you're referencing you don't have the back of the prime point made so the opponent is unable to extend his prime easily and you always have an escape hatch at least for a couple of turns.

Stick

Rollout: How strong is a five-prime?

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From: tchow12...@yahoo.com (Timothy Chow)
Newsgroups: rec.games.backgammon
Subject: Rollout: How strong is a five-prime?
Date: Thu, 15 Sep 2022 09:20:02 -0400
Organization: A noiseless patient Spider
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 by: Timothy Chow - Thu, 15 Sep 2022 13:20 UTC

XGID=-a--BCBBBb---D---a-bbbbba-:0:0:1:00:0:0:0:0:10

X:Player 1 O:Player 2
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O | | O O O O O O |
| X | | O O O O O |
| X | | |
| X | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | |
| | | X |
| O X X | | X X X |
| O X X | | X X X O |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 117 O: 105 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X on roll, cube action

I was asleep at the switch and missed this double, but as a quiz
problem, the more interesting question IMO is whether to take or pass.
This is a delicate question, as you can see from the rollout below
of the decision I faced on the next turn.

Analyzed in Rollout
No double
Player Winning Chances: 73.27% (G:10.40% B:0.31%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 26.73% (G:4.36% B:0.04%)
Double/Take
Player Winning Chances: 74.06% (G:10.77% B:0.32%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 25.94% (G:4.44% B:0.05%)

Cubeful Equities:
No double: +0.823 (-0.115)
Double/Take: +0.938
Double/Pass: +1.000 (+0.062)

Best Cube action: Double / Take

Rollout:
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Confidence No Double: ± 0.008 (+0.815..+0.830)
Confidence Double: ± 0.012 (+0.926..+0.951)

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.207.pre-release

---------
Next turn
---------

XGID=-a--BCBBCb---C-----bbcbba-:0:0:1:00:0:0:0:0:10

X:Player 1 O:Player 2
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X | | O O O O O O |
| X | | O O O O O |
| X | | O |
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | |
| X | | X |
| O X X | | X X X |
| O X X | | X X X O |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 112 O: 101 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X on roll, cube action

Analyzed in Rollout
No double
Player Winning Chances: 76.78% (G:10.41% B:0.29%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 23.22% (G:3.01% B:0.03%)
Double/Take
Player Winning Chances: 77.86% (G:10.66% B:0.28%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 22.14% (G:3.35% B:0.04%)

Cubeful Equities:
No double: +0.907 (-0.093)
Double/Take: +1.135 (+0.135)
Double/Pass: +1.000

Best Cube action: Double / Pass

Rollout:
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Confidence No Double: ± 0.006 (+0.901..+0.912)
Confidence Double: ± 0.011 (+1.124..+1.147)

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.207.pre-release

---
Tim Chow

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