I made a horrible blunder in this position by splitting to the 5 point
with a hope of hitting a 2nd checker.
It's very unlikely that I would have made this play at DMP with gammons
irrelevant.
I think it's the type of thing Stick means with his DMP rule.
His rule probably prevents others making this type of grotesque blunder.

Paul

XGID=a-BB-BC----bbCA---ac-bbBb-:1:-1:1:43:0:0:3:0:10
X:Daniel O:eXtremeGammon

Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game, Jacoby Beaver
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X X O | | O O O X O | +---+
| X | | O O O X O | | 2 |
| X | | O | +---+
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | O | |
| | | |
| | | X |
| O O | | X X X X |
| O O | | X X X X |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 137 O: 120 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 2, O own cube
X to play 43

1. XG Roller+ 14/10 13/10 eq:+0.357
Player: 63.15% (G:32.71% B:0.83%)
Opponent: 36.85% (G:10.53% B:0.40%)

2. XG Roller+ 23/20 14/10 eq:+0.124 (-0.233)
Player: 57.52% (G:28.30% B:0.88%)
Opponent: 42.48% (G:17.55% B:0.65%)

3. 3-ply 14/7 eq:+0.184 (-0.173)
Player: 58.36% (G:28.01% B:0.75%)
Opponent: 41.64% (G:11.62% B:0.40%)

4. 2-ply 13/6 eq:+0.127 (-0.230)
Player: 56.57% (G:27.19% B:0.85%)
Opponent: 43.43% (G:12.67% B:0.47%)

5. 2-ply 14/10 6/3 eq:+0.093 (-0.264)
Player: 56.04% (G:25.00% B:0.66%)
Opponent: 43.96% (G:12.46% B:0.47%)

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

On Sunday, September 18, 2022 at 11:52:16 AM UTC-4, peps...@gmail.com wrote:
> I made a horrible blunder in this position by splitting to the 5 point
> with a hope of hitting a 2nd checker.
> It's very unlikely that I would have made this play at DMP with gammons
> irrelevant.
> I think it's the type of thing Stick means with his DMP rule.
> His rule probably prevents others making this type of grotesque blunder.
>
> Paul
>
> XGID=a-BB-BC----bbCA---ac-bbBb-:1:-1:1:43:0:0:3:0:10
> X:Daniel O:eXtremeGammon
>
> Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game, Jacoby Beaver
> +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
> | X X O | | O O O X O | +---+
> | X | | O O O X O | | 2 |
> | X | | O | +---+
> | | | |
> | | | |
> | |BAR| |
> | | O | |
> | | | |
> | | | X |
> | O O | | X X X X |
> | O O | | X X X X |
> +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
> Pip count X: 137 O: 120 X-O: 0-0
> Cube: 2, O own cube
> X to play 43
>
> 1. XG Roller+ 14/10 13/10 eq:+0.357
> Player: 63.15% (G:32.71% B:0.83%)
> Opponent: 36.85% (G:10.53% B:0.40%)
>
> 2. XG Roller+ 23/20 14/10 eq:+0.124 (-0.233)
> Player: 57.52% (G:28.30% B:0.88%)
> Opponent: 42.48% (G:17.55% B:0.65%)
>
> 3. 3-ply 14/7 eq:+0.184 (-0.173)
> Player: 58.36% (G:28.01% B:0.75%)
> Opponent: 41.64% (G:11.62% B:0.40%)
>
> 4. 2-ply 13/6 eq:+0.127 (-0.230)
> Player: 56.57% (G:27.19% B:0.85%)
> Opponent: 43.43% (G:12.67% B:0.47%)
>
> 5. 2-ply 14/10 6/3 eq:+0.093 (-0.264)
> Player: 56.04% (G:25.00% B:0.66%)
> Opponent: 43.96% (G:12.46% B:0.47%)
>
>
> eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

One of the best examples of what, to me, the rule is meant for was recently posted by Tim. (https://groups.google.com/g/rec.games.backgammon/c/U0XV30tIo94)

It's a play most people go the quiet route because humans by nature see the very worst of what could happen and get it in their heads "I'm going to lose so many gammons with this play" whereas if they were constantly questioning what the dmp play is and how clear is it, they could steer themselves to better choices. It's very hard for a play to win so many extra games and not be the correct play since wins are worth 2x what gammon losses cost us.. The dmp rule has various other applications but Tim's is a prime example of what I had in mind originally.

Stick

On Sunday, September 18, 2022 at 5:12:16 PM UTC+1, Stick Rice wrote:
> On Sunday, September 18, 2022 at 11:52:16 AM UTC-4, peps...@gmail.com wrote:
> > I made a horrible blunder in this position by splitting to the 5 point
> > with a hope of hitting a 2nd checker.
> > It's very unlikely that I would have made this play at DMP with gammons
> > irrelevant.
> > I think it's the type of thing Stick means with his DMP rule.
> > His rule probably prevents others making this type of grotesque blunder..
> >
> > Paul
> >
> > XGID=a-BB-BC----bbCA---ac-bbBb-:1:-1:1:43:0:0:3:0:10
> > X:Daniel O:eXtremeGammon
> >
> > Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game, Jacoby Beaver
> > +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
> > | X X O | | O O O X O | +---+
> > | X | | O O O X O | | 2 |
> > | X | | O | +---+
> > | | | |
> > | | | |
> > | |BAR| |
> > | | O | |
> > | | | |
> > | | | X |
> > | O O | | X X X X |
> > | O O | | X X X X |
> > +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
> > Pip count X: 137 O: 120 X-O: 0-0
> > Cube: 2, O own cube
> > X to play 43
> >
> > 1. XG Roller+ 14/10 13/10 eq:+0.357
> > Player: 63.15% (G:32.71% B:0.83%)
> > Opponent: 36.85% (G:10.53% B:0.40%)
> >
> > 2. XG Roller+ 23/20 14/10 eq:+0.124 (-0.233)
> > Player: 57.52% (G:28.30% B:0.88%)
> > Opponent: 42.48% (G:17.55% B:0.65%)
> >
> > 3. 3-ply 14/7 eq:+0.184 (-0.173)
> > Player: 58.36% (G:28.01% B:0.75%)
> > Opponent: 41.64% (G:11.62% B:0.40%)
> >
> > 4. 2-ply 13/6 eq:+0.127 (-0.230)
> > Player: 56.57% (G:27.19% B:0.85%)
> > Opponent: 43.43% (G:12.67% B:0.47%)
> >
> > 5. 2-ply 14/10 6/3 eq:+0.093 (-0.264)
> > Player: 56.04% (G:25.00% B:0.66%)
> > Opponent: 43.96% (G:12.46% B:0.47%)
> >
> >
> > eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10
> One of the best examples of what, to me, the rule is meant for was recently posted by Tim. (https://groups.google.com/g/rec.games.backgammon/c/U0XV30tIo94)
>
> It's a play most people go the quiet route because humans by nature see the very worst of what could happen and get it in their heads "I'm going to lose so many gammons with this play" whereas if they were constantly questioning what the dmp play is and how clear is it, they could steer themselves to better choices. It's very hard for a play to win so many extra games and not be the correct play since wins are worth 2x what gammon losses cost us. The dmp rule has various other applications but Tim's is a prime example of what I had in mind originally.
>
> Stick

Your reply is interesting, but it makes me even more jealous of Tim than I was previously.
Why does his position make a better DMP-rule example than mine?
Is it that my blunder is so idiotic that no rule is required to avoid it?

Paul

On Sunday, September 18, 2022 at 5:12:16 PM UTC+1, Stick Rice wrote:
> On Sunday, September 18, 2022 at 11:52:16 AM UTC-4, peps...@gmail.com wrote:
> > I made a horrible blunder in this position by splitting to the 5 point
> > with a hope of hitting a 2nd checker.
> > It's very unlikely that I would have made this play at DMP with gammons
> > irrelevant.
> > I think it's the type of thing Stick means with his DMP rule.
> > His rule probably prevents others making this type of grotesque blunder..
> >
> > Paul
> >
> > XGID=a-BB-BC----bbCA---ac-bbBb-:1:-1:1:43:0:0:3:0:10
> > X:Daniel O:eXtremeGammon
> >
> > Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game, Jacoby Beaver
> > +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
> > | X X O | | O O O X O | +---+
> > | X | | O O O X O | | 2 |
> > | X | | O | +---+
> > | | | |
> > | | | |
> > | |BAR| |
> > | | O | |
> > | | | |
> > | | | X |
> > | O O | | X X X X |
> > | O O | | X X X X |
> > +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
> > Pip count X: 137 O: 120 X-O: 0-0
> > Cube: 2, O own cube
> > X to play 43
> >
> > 1. XG Roller+ 14/10 13/10 eq:+0.357
> > Player: 63.15% (G:32.71% B:0.83%)
> > Opponent: 36.85% (G:10.53% B:0.40%)
> >
> > 2. XG Roller+ 23/20 14/10 eq:+0.124 (-0.233)
> > Player: 57.52% (G:28.30% B:0.88%)
> > Opponent: 42.48% (G:17.55% B:0.65%)
> >
> > 3. 3-ply 14/7 eq:+0.184 (-0.173)
> > Player: 58.36% (G:28.01% B:0.75%)
> > Opponent: 41.64% (G:11.62% B:0.40%)
> >
> > 4. 2-ply 13/6 eq:+0.127 (-0.230)
> > Player: 56.57% (G:27.19% B:0.85%)
> > Opponent: 43.43% (G:12.67% B:0.47%)
> >
> > 5. 2-ply 14/10 6/3 eq:+0.093 (-0.264)
> > Player: 56.04% (G:25.00% B:0.66%)
> > Opponent: 43.96% (G:12.46% B:0.47%)
> >
> >
> > eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10
> One of the best examples of what, to me, the rule is meant for was recently posted by Tim. (https://groups.google.com/g/rec.games.backgammon/c/U0XV30tIo94)
>
> It's a play most people go the quiet route because humans by nature see the very worst of what could happen and get it in their heads "I'm going to lose so many gammons with this play" whereas if they were constantly questioning what the dmp play is and how clear is it, they could steer themselves to better choices. It's very hard for a play to win so many extra games and not be the correct play since wins are worth 2x what gammon losses cost us. The dmp rule has various other applications but Tim's is a prime example of what I had in mind originally.
>
> Stick

Suppose players deliberately make non-DMP plays in money games.
These come in several categories for example:
1) Sacrificing your own winning chances, in a better position, to avoid losing a gammon.
2) Sacrificing your own winning chances in the hope of picking up extra gammons.

Tim's play is an example where a non-DMP error comes under my category 1.
Such mistakes are common.

But I'm not sure that category 2 so often leads to error.
For example, when bearing off against two men on the bar, players are often too
cautious about making correct positional sacrifices to increase gammons.

That's why I think the DMP rule needs to be more nuanced.
For example, it doesn't work well for bearoffs.

Paul

"peps...@gmail.com" <pepstein5@gmail.com> writes:

> 2) Sacrificing your own winning chances in the hope of picking up
> extra gammons.

[...]

> I'm not sure that category 2 so often leads to error.

Like someone in our club put it: "It is always Gammon-Go!"

At least this leads to lots of drama which is why most of us like this
game. (-:

Best regards

Axel

On 9/18/2022 12:42 PM, Axel Reichert wrote:
> "peps...@gmail.com" <pepstein5@gmail.com> writes:
>
>> 2) Sacrificing your own winning chances in the hope of picking up
>> extra gammons.
>
> [...]
>
>> I'm not sure that category 2 so often leads to error.
>
> Like someone in our club put it: "It is always Gammon-Go!"
>
> At least this leads to lots of drama which is why most of us like this
> game. (-:

I agree that category 2 errors are less common than category 1
errors. That's what I conjecture Stick was getting at, too.

---
Tim Chow

On Monday, September 19, 2022 at 12:51:18 PM UTC+1, Tim Chow wrote:
> On 9/18/2022 12:42 PM, Axel Reichert wrote:
> > "peps...@gmail.com" <peps...@gmail.com> writes:
> >
> >> 2) Sacrificing your own winning chances in the hope of picking up
> >> extra gammons.
> >
> > [...]
> >
> >> I'm not sure that category 2 so often leads to error.
> >
> > Like someone in our club put it: "It is always Gammon-Go!"
> >
> > At least this leads to lots of drama which is why most of us like this
> > game. (-:
> I agree that category 2 errors are less common than category 1
> errors. That's what I conjecture Stick was getting at, too.
>
> ---
> Tim Chow

If he "gets at that" here in these threads, those thoughts might be used to create
a more nuanced rule.

Paul