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interests / rec.games.backgammon / 3-away/7-away cube action 2

SubjectAuthor
* 3-away/7-away cube action 2Timothy Chow
+- Re: 3-away/7-away cube action 2ah...Clem
`- Rollout: 3-away/7-away cube action 2Timothy Chow

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3-away/7-away cube action 2

<tgk8vi$2h7b7$3@dont-email.me>

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From: tchow12...@yahoo.com (Timothy Chow)
Newsgroups: rec.games.backgammon
Subject: 3-away/7-away cube action 2
Date: Fri, 23 Sep 2022 08:31:47 -0400
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 by: Timothy Chow - Fri, 23 Sep 2022 12:31 UTC

XGID=aBBBB-Bb--B-bC----acbb-b--:0:0:1:00:4:0:0:7:10

X:Player 1 O:Player 2
Score is X:4 O:0 7 pt.(s) match.
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O | | O O O O |
| X | | O O O O |
| X | | O |
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | O | |
| | | |
| | | |
| O X O | | X X X X X |
| O X O | | X X X X X |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 91 O: 134 X-O: 4-0/7
Cube: 1
X on roll, cube action

---
Tim Chow

Re: 3-away/7-away cube action 2

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From: ah_c...@ymail.com (ah...Clem)
Newsgroups: rec.games.backgammon
Subject: Re: 3-away/7-away cube action 2
Date: Fri, 23 Sep 2022 16:56:34 -0400
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 by: ah...Clem - Fri, 23 Sep 2022 20:56 UTC

On 9/23/2022 8:31 AM, Timothy Chow wrote:
> XGID=aBBBB-Bb--B-bC----acbb-b--:0:0:1:00:4:0:0:7:10
>
> X:Player 1   O:Player 2
> Score is X:4 O:0 7 pt.(s) match.
>  +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
>  | X              O |   | O  O  O     O    |
>  | X                |   | O  O  O     O    |
>  | X                |   | O                |
>  |                  |   |                  |
>  |                  |   |                  |
>  |                  |BAR|                  |
>  |                  | O |                  |
>  |                  |   |                  |
>  |                  |   |                  |
>  | O     X        O |   | X     X  X  X  X |
>  | O     X        O |   | X     X  X  X  X |
>  +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
> Pip count  X: 91  O: 134 X-O: 4-0/7
> Cube: 1
> X on roll, cube action

Does O have 18% here? She has a decent board, but I'm not seeing X
coughing up enough shots to justify a take. Is it TG? Unless something
really unexpected happens, X should have a cash next roll. So roll.

TG/P.

Rollout: 3-away/7-away cube action 2

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From: tchow12...@yahoo.com (Timothy Chow)
Newsgroups: rec.games.backgammon
Subject: Rollout: 3-away/7-away cube action 2
Date: Sun, 25 Sep 2022 08:16:42 -0400
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 by: Timothy Chow - Sun, 25 Sep 2022 12:16 UTC

XGID=aBBBB-Bb--B-bC----acbb-b--:0:0:1:00:4:0:0:7:10

X:Player 1 O:Player 2
Score is X:4 O:0 7 pt.(s) match.
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O | | O O O O |
| X | | O O O O |
| X | | O |
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | O | |
| | | |
| | | |
| O X O | | X X X X X |
| O X O | | X X X X X |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 91 O: 134 X-O: 4-0/7
Cube: 1
X on roll, cube action

This problem follows the same theme as the previous problem. It
shows that even my amended version of Stick's rule isn't perfect.
This is a gammonish position, and according to the rollout, it's
not a borderline take/pass decision---it's a clear pass.

Nevertheless, XG says it's a big double. Such positions are rare
in my experience. Despite X's huge gammon win percentage (~43%),
XG says that X isn't good enough to play on. And yet, apparently
O cannot take either. According to Rollout Statistics, O gets in
a recube more than half the time if she takes, and X has to take
about 80% of those recubes. Fortunately for X, his very low rate
of losing gammons means that he will rarely (~3% of the time) lose
the match this game (assuming D/T). So O must pass.

Analyzed in Rollout
No double
Player Winning Chances: 77.15% (G:40.28% B:0.28%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 22.85% (G:3.98% B:0.15%)
Double/Take
Player Winning Chances: 76.77% (G:43.07% B:0.15%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 23.23% (G:4.67% B:0.21%)

Cubeful Equities:
No double: +0.892 (-0.108)
Double/Take: +1.128 (+0.128)
Double/Pass: +1.000

Best Cube action: Double / Pass

Rollout:
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Confidence No Double: ± 0.008 (+0.884..+0.900)
Confidence Double: ± 0.016 (+1.112..+1.145)

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.207.pre-release, MET: Kazaross XG2

---
Tim Chow

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