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interests / rec.games.backgammon / Race cube 2

Race cube 2

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From: ah_c...@ymail.com (ah...Clem)
Newsgroups: rec.games.backgammon
Subject: Race cube 2
Date: Fri, 23 Sep 2022 17:27:05 -0400
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by: ah...Clem - Fri, 23 Sep 2022 21:27 UTC

Not as contrived as the last one. An actual position that came up
recently, tweaked slightly to get an interesting pipcount.

XGID=-BBBCBC-A-----aa---cabcbb-:0:0:1:00:0:0:0:0:10

X:Player 1 O:Player 2
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| O O | | O O O O O O |
| | | O O O O O |
| | | O O |
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | |
| | | X X |
| | | X X X X X X |
| X | | X X X X X X |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 60 O: 67 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X on roll, cube action

Re Rollout: Race cube 2

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From: ah_c...@ymail.com (ah...Clem)
Newsgroups: rec.games.backgammon
Subject: Re Rollout: Race cube 2
Date: Mon, 26 Sep 2022 11:34:08 -0400
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by: ah...Clem - Mon, 26 Sep 2022 15:34 UTC

No takers on this one. Perhaps too simple? It's just a race cube, and
there are formulas for that. Here, the appear to disagree. After
penalizing O for the extra crossover, we get a score of 60 to 68. The
three pip wide Trice metric says the doubling window is (64,67) while
the four pip wide Isight puts the doubling window at (64,68)

So it's D/P according to Trice and D/T according to Isight, assuming
I've done the calculation correctly. XG doesn't have a tab for Isight,
but accrording to it, both Thorpe and Keith metrics say it's a take too.

In the variant, I've smoothed out O's distribution, so the take is not a
big an error as it is here.

XGID=-BBBCBC-A-----aa---cabcbb-:0:0:1:00:0:0:0:0:10

Analyzed in Rollout
No double
Player Winning Chances: 81.46% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 18.54% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Double/Take
Player Winning Chances: 81.43% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 18.57% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)

Cubeless Equities: No Double=+0.629, Double=+1.257

Cubeful Equities:
No double: +0.895 (-0.105)
Double/Take: +1.153 (+0.153)
Double/Pass: +1.000

Best Cube action: Double / Pass

Rollout:
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Confidence No Double: ± 0.002 (+0.893..+0.898)
Confidence Double: ± 0.003 (+1.150..+1.157)

Double Decision confidence: 100.0%
Take Decision confidence: 100.0%

Duration: 40.6 seconds

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

/******************
/variant
/******************

XGID=-BBBCBC-A-----a--a-cbbbbb-:0:0:1:00:0:0:0:0:10

X:Player 1 O:Player 2
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| O O | | O O O O O O |
| | | O O O O O O |
| | | O |
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | |
| | | X X |
| | | X X X X X X |
| X | | X X X X X X |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 60 O: 67 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X on roll, cube action

Analyzed in Rollout
No double
Player Winning Chances: 79.71% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 20.29% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Double/Take
Player Winning Chances: 79.68% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 20.32% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)

Cubeless Equities: No Double=+0.594, Double=+1.187

Cubeful Equities:
No double: +0.871 (-0.129)
Double/Take: +1.074 (+0.074)
Double/Pass: +1.000

Best Cube action: Double / Pass

Rollout:
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Confidence No Double: ± 0.002 (+0.869..+0.873)
Confidence Double: ± 0.003 (+1.071..+1.077)

Double Decision confidence: 100.0%
Take Decision confidence: 100.0%

Duration: 46.5 seconds

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

Subject	Author
Race cube 2	ah...Clem
Re Rollout: Race cube 2	ah...Clem