Hello,

More of my philosophy about artificial intelligence and about productivity and about Hotels and about competitiveness and about the services sector and about economy and about the sectors of the economy and about how USA is vastly a self-sufficient economy and about USA and about Japan and about the deeper understanding of swarm intelligence and about the deeper understanding of my philosophy and about Deepmind and about the definition of a technical debt and more of my thoughts..

I am a white arab from Morocco, and i think i am smart since i have also
invented many scalable algorithms and algorithms..

I am posting again this post of mine, i am also correcting some of my previous thoughts, but it will be the last post on other than parallel programming and threads programming, so i invite you to read it carefully so that to understand my thoughts:

I think that the next GPT-5 will support multimodality with text and images and videos , but i think it will have a major limitation, and it is that how can we be sure that from text and from videos we can capture correctly the understanding , since text on programming is not experience on programming, so ChatGPT with even version 5 will lack a lot on experience,
also with the limited size of the window of GPT-5 it will not capture correctly
the global patterns, so how can we be sure that it captures the patterns correctly, also the exploration of GPT-5 will be limited by the data , so it will lack a lot on creativity, and there is also other limitations of ChatGPT even at version 5 that i can talk more about , so i say that ChatGPT even at version 5 will be still lacking much, so you can notice it for example by reading the following:

"In programming tests, GPT-4 did worse; the AI struggles with code, it seems. GPT-4 was able to get 31 out of 41 correct solutions in the "easy" Leetcode test, but got just 21/80 on the medium test and only 3 correct questions on the hard test. Meanwhile, its Codeforces rating is a measly 392, placing it below the 5th percentile of users.""

Read more here:

https://hothardware.com/news/openai-gpt-4-model

So you can read my new thoughts about artificial intelligence and about the limitations of Large Language Models such as GPT-4 in the following web link:

https://groups.google.com/g/alt.culture.morocco/c/HualRt6YYJI

I invite you to read the following new paper:

Bottlenecks: Sectoral Imbalances and the US Productivity Slowdown

"Despite the rapid pace of innovation in information and communications technologies (ICT) and electronics, aggregate US productivity growth has been disappointing since the 1970s. We propose and empirically explore the hypothesis that slow growth stems in part from an unbalanced sectoral distribution of innovation over the last several decades. Because an industry's success in innovation depends on complementary innovations among its input suppliers, rapid productivity growth that is concentrated in a subset of sectors may create bottlenecks and consequently fail to translate into commensurate aggregate productivity gains. Using data on input-output linkages, citation linkages, industry productivity growth and patenting, we find evidence consistent with this hypothesis: the variance of suppliers' Total Factor Productivity growth or innovation adversely affects an industry's own TFP growth and innovation. Our estimates suggest that a substantial share of the productivity slowdown in the United States (and several other industrialized economies) can be accounted for by a sizable increase in cross-industry variance of TFP growth and innovation. For example, if TFP growth variance had remained at the 1977-1987 level, US manufacturing productivity would have grown twice as rapidly in 1997-2007 as it did—yielding a counterfactual growth rate that would have been close to that of 1977-1987 and 1987-1997."

Read more here:

https://www.nber.org/papers/w31427

And here is my thoughts about the above new paper:

- Introduction to the Issue: The passage begins by stating that despite the rapid advancements in information and communications technologies (ICT) and electronics, the overall growth in productivity in the United States has been disappointing since the 1970s.

- Main Hypothesis: The authors propose a hypothesis to explain this slow productivity growth. They suggest that one reason for this could be an uneven distribution of innovation across different sectors over the past few decades.

- Impact of Sectoral Distribution: The success of innovation in any given industry is influenced by innovations happening in the industries that supply it with various inputs. When productivity growth is concentrated in just a few sectors, this can create problems. It may lead to bottlenecks – situations where the sectors experiencing rapid growth don't have the necessary innovations from other sectors to fully realize their potential, thus limiting overall productivity gains.

- Supporting Evidence: To back up their hypothesis, the authors use data related to various aspects such as input-output linkages (how industries depend on each other for inputs), citation linkages (how industries refer to each other's innovations), industry productivity growth, and patenting.

- Findings: Their analysis provides support for the hypothesis. They find that when the growth of Total Factor Productivity (TFP) – a measure of overall productivity – of suppliers varies widely, it negatively affects the TFP growth and innovation of the industries they supply. In other words, if the suppliers' productivity growth is inconsistent, it can hinder the growth of the industries they provide inputs to.

- Impact on Productivity Slowdown: The authors conclude that a significant portion of the slowdown in productivity growth in the US and other industrialized economies can be attributed to an increase in the variation of TFP growth and innovation across different industries.

- Counterfactual Example: The passage concludes with an illustrative example. If the variance (variation) of TFP growth had stayed at the level it was during a certain period (1977-1987), then the productivity growth in US manufacturing would have been much higher in later periods (1997-2007). The implication is that if innovation were more evenly distributed across sectors, productivity growth would have been higher.

In summary, the paper above suggests that the uneven distribution of innovation across different industries is a key factor in the disappointing productivity growth seen in the US and other industrialized economies since the 1970s. When innovation is concentrated in a few sectors and doesn't spread throughout the economy, it can create bottlenecks that hinder overall productivity growth.

Hilton Hotels & Resorts is a global brand of full-service hotels and resorts and the flagship brand of American multinational hospitality company Hilton. The original company was founded by Conrad Hilton.

And i invite you to look at Hilton Tanger City Center Morocco in the following video:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4n-82FG2KqE

And Hyatt Hotels Corporation, commonly known as Hyatt Hotels & Resorts, is an American multinational hospitality company headquartered in the Riverside Plaza area of Chicago that manages and franchises luxury and business hotels, resorts, and vacation properties.

And Airbnb, Inc. is an American San Francisco-based company operating an online marketplace for short- and long-term homestays and experiences. The company acts as a broker and charges a commission from each booking. The company was founded in 2008 by Brian Chesky, Nathan Blecharczyk, and Joe Gebbia..

Valuation in 2023:

Airbnb: $88 billion
Hilton: $41 billion
Hyatt: $12 billion

Valuation in 2008:

Hilton: $26 billion
Hyatt: $6 billion
Airbnb: $0 (launch year)

So i think i have to talk about another important thing, so notice carefully
the following about Japan:

- Japan has a Lack of labor, so Japan is lacking so many workers, and it is a weakness
- Japan has almost no immigrants from outside, and it is a major weakness
- Japan doesn't have well-developed market of venture capitalists capable
of investing and putting up the necessary money, and it is a major weakness
- And exports as a percentage of GDP of Japan is a problem , so Japan trade relatively little abroad, but not trading abroad does not allow growth in larger foreign markets that could bring in a lot of money etc. , so it is a major weakness.
- And labor productivity in Japan is catastrophic, and it is a major weakness

So i invite you to look carefully at the following video so that you understand it correctly:

Why Japan could rise again as an economic super-power

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IY1NFvVBm0U

--

So we can ask why USA trade really little abroad , and it is not a problem
as for Japan ? , so you have to read my below thoughts about it, since i
think that USA is compensating it with the fact that it is competitive by
attracting the best and the smartest immigrants, so immigration is really
important for USA, so i invite you to read my following thoughts about it:

Exports of USA as a percentage of GDP:
$162 billion (exports) / $23.32 trillion (GDP) * 100 ≈ 0.69%

Imports of USA as a percentage of GDP:
$251 billion (imports) / $23.32 trillion (GDP) * 100 ≈ 1.08%

So i think i am a new philosopher, so i think you are understanding that Japan is having major weaknesses or problems, and you have to read about
it in my below previous thoughts, so it is why i say that immigration is
really important and beneficial to USA , but not only that, but USA has
a well-developed market of venture capitalists capable of investing and putting up the necessary money, so i think that one of the most important
advantage of USA, is that USA has BIG money that also attracts
the really smart immigrants, so i invite you to also read my following thoughts about USA so that you understand more clearly the important advantages of USA: