Futbolmetrix:

> After the end of Group B, my army of TransferMarkt based predictions is now crowding the top 10, but cuca in effective third place is just bad. Jesper has snuck into the top 10, Jesus has dropped out (MatchDay2 is an hors-de concours entry that assumes perfect knowledge of everything that happened in MDs 1 and 2, and then uses Elo)
>
>
> 1 MatchDay 2 -15.404
> 2 Goalkeepers (by FM) -17.042
> 3 Defenders (by FM) -17.568
> 4 cuca -17.828
> 5 Middle link (by FM) -18.007
> 6 TransferMarkt (by FM) -18.029
> 7 Jesper -18.143
> 8 Midfielders (by FM) -18.292
> 9 TransferMarkt - Adj (by FM) -18.400
> 10 Dan Levy -18.571
> 11 ClubElo/ClubTM (by FM) -18.663

Why haven't you posted the ranking after the end of Group D? :D

On Thursday, December 1, 2022 at 11:32:22 AM UTC-5, milivella wrote:
> Futbolmetrix:

> Why haven't you posted the ranking after the end of Group D? :D

Weren't they exactly the same as the ones posted the day before? Argentina, Poland, France and Australia were the qualified teams prior to the Wednesday matches.

Today's Group F results also have no effect on the SophCon standings. We'll see what happens if Germany are able to turn it around.

Futbolmetrix:

> On Thursday, December 1, 2022 at 11:32:22 AM UTC-5, milivella wrote:
>> Futbolmetrix:
>
>> Why haven't you posted the ranking after the end of Group D? :D
>
> Weren't they exactly the same as the ones posted the day before? Argentina, Poland, France and Australia were the qualified teams prior to the Wednesday matches.

Translation for the uninitated: "I didn't want to write that CuCa kept
its place on the podium."

--
Cheers
milivella

On Thursday, December 1, 2022 at 6:54:43 PM UTC-5, milivella wrote:
> Translation for the uninitated: "I didn't want to write that CuCa kept
> its place on the podium."
>

Ridiculous theory!

Here are the top 10 after the end of today's Group H matches:

1 MatchDay 2 (hors de concours) -16.549
2 Red -16.859
3 Goalkeepers (by FM) -17.584
4 Jesper -17.701
5 Futbolmetrix -18.300
6 FiveThirtyEight -18.481
7 Midfielders (by FM) -18.488
8 Weakest link (by FM) -18.594
9 cuca -18.750
10 TransferMarkt (by FM) -18.921
11 TransferMarkt - Adj (by FM) -18.979

Em sexta-feira, 2 de dezembro de 2022 às 14:12:22 UTC-3, Futbolmetrix escreveu:
> On Thursday, December 1, 2022 at 6:54:43 PM UTC-5, milivella wrote:
> > Translation for the uninitated: "I didn't want to write that CuCa kept
> > its place on the podium."
> >
> Ridiculous theory!
>
> Here are the top 10 after the end of today's Group H matches:
>
> 1 MatchDay 2 (hors de concours) -16.549
> 2 Red -16.859
> 3 Goalkeepers (by FM) -17.584
> 4 Jesper -17.701
> 5 Futbolmetrix -18.300
> 6 FiveThirtyEight -18.481
> 7 Midfielders (by FM) -18.488
> 8 Weakest link (by FM) -18.594
> 9 cuca -18.750
> 10 TransferMarkt (by FM) -18.921
> 11 TransferMarkt - Adj (by FM) -18.979

Red? This one wasn't in the master spreadsheet that I've downloaded...

Tchau!
Jesus Petry

On Friday, December 2, 2022 at 12:17:09 PM UTC-5, jesus...@gmail.com wrote:

> Red? This one wasn't in the master spreadsheet that I've downloaded...

Late submission (trusted source, so I accepted it)

On Friday, December 2, 2022 at 12:25:55 PM UTC-5, Futbolmetrix wrote:
> On Friday, December 2, 2022 at 12:17:09 PM UTC-5, jesus...@gmail.com wrote:
>
> > Red? This one wasn't in the master spreadsheet that I've downloaded...
> Late submission (trusted source, so I accepted it)

Full standings at the end of the group stage:

1 MatchDay 2 (hors de concours) -16.549
2 Red -16.859
3 Goalkeepers (by FM) -17.584
4 Jesper -17.701
5 Futbolmetrix -18.300
6 FiveThirtyEight -18.481
7 Midfielders (by FM) -18.488
8 Weakest link (by FM) -18.594
9 cuca -18.750
10 TransferMarkt (by FM) -18.921
11 TransferMarkt - Adj (by FM) -18.979
12 KU Leuven -19.002
13 Econ0 (by FM) -19.028
14 Stephen K -19.176
15 Keanu J -19.197
16 Strongest link (by FM) -19.222
17 FIFA (by FM) -19.242
18 Jesus Petry -19.243
19 Bookmaker Consensus Model (by AZ) -19.250
20 goalprojection -19.302
21 Collective Consciousness -19.316
22 tm (by FM) -19.436
23 El Pais -19.466
24 Defenders (by FM) -19.485
25 Zander (Tournament Structure) -19.486
26 Middle link (by FM) -19.573
27 AIrgentina -19.741
28 Simon G -19.829
29 ClubElo/ClubTM (by FM) -19.875
30 Patrick Flynn -19.878
31 Opta Analyst -19.946
32 Volkan Riolo -20.068
33 Footballgenius -20.128
34 Betfair -20.137
35 Hybrid Machine Learning (by AZ) -20.309
36 Dan Levy -20.363
37 Econ1 (by FM) -20.409
38 MatchDay1 (hors de concours) -20.451
39 Silver Aurora -20.476
40 MH -20.541
41 Elo (by FM) -20.650
42 Luke Benz -20.716
43 dopemodels.info -20.859
44 InPlayFootballTips -21.134
45 Werner Pichler -21.175
46 KonakaLab -21.299
47 Fantomen -21.385
48 NT-ELO predictions (by Ed) -21.411
49 Alessandro Riolo -21.940
50 FoG -22.181
51 Agnostic -22.181
52 Lléo -22.505
53 Forwards (by FM) -22.950
54 Historic Match Model (by AZ) -23.077
55 Swiss Football Data -23.620
56 Anders T -24.136
57 Scrabble (by FM) -24.614
58 Mark -26.254
59 Q1_Bias (by FM) -28.385
60 Goal Experience (by FM) -32.049
61 Experience (by FM) -36.432

More commentary and links to updated master spreadsheets here:

https://futbolmetrix.wordpress.com/2022/12/02/wc-2022-sophcon-standings-at-the-end-of-the-group-stage/

Quickie look ahead: if all the favorites advance (BRA-ARG and ESP-FRA semis, BRA over FRA in the final), Jesper takes the crown.

On Friday, December 2, 2022 at 5:36:33 PM UTC-5, Futbolmetrix wrote:
> On Friday, December 2, 2022 at 12:25:55 PM UTC-5, Futbolmetrix wrote:

Intermediate standings after FRA-POL (intermediate here means score after R16 for teams that have already played, and score after R1 for the others):

(top 10)

1 Jesper -18.891
2 MatchDay 2 (hors de concours) -18.900
3 Red -19.762
4 Futbolmetrix -21.044
5 FiveThirtyEight -21.225
6 Goalkeepers (by FM) -21.403
7 KU Leuven -21.534
8 Stephen K -21.536
9 Keanu J -21.666
10 Zander (Tournament Structure) -21.738
11 Jesus Petry -21.850

On Sunday, December 4, 2022 at 12:16:38 PM UTC-5, Futbolmetrix wrote:
> On Friday, December 2, 2022 at 5:36:33 PM UTC-5, Futbolmetrix wrote:
> > On Friday, December 2, 2022 at 12:25:55 PM UTC-5, Futbolmetrix wrote:
> Intermediate standings after FRA-POL (intermediate here means score after R16 for teams that have already played, and score after R1 for the others):
>
> (top 10)
>
> 1 Jesper -18.891

Our great and enlightened leader has given Morocco zero probability of advancing past the round of 16.

On Tuesday, December 6, 2022 at 6:32:24 PM UTC+1, Futbolmetrix wrote:
> On Sunday, December 4, 2022 at 12:16:38 PM UTC-5, Futbolmetrix wrote:
> > On Friday, December 2, 2022 at 5:36:33 PM UTC-5, Futbolmetrix wrote:
> > > On Friday, December 2, 2022 at 12:25:55 PM UTC-5, Futbolmetrix wrote:
> > Intermediate standings after FRA-POL (intermediate here means score after R16 for teams that have already played, and score after R1 for the others):
> >
> > (top 10)
> >
> > 1 Jesper -18.891
>
> Our great and enlightened leader has given Morocco zero probability of advancing past the round of 16.

Thanks!
What additional excitement for the upcoming shoot-out!

Ciao,
Werner

On Tuesday, December 6, 2022 at 12:34:41 PM UTC-5, Werner Pichler wrote:
> On Tuesday, December 6, 2022 at 6:32:24 PM UTC+1, Futbolmetrix wrote:
> > On Sunday, December 4, 2022 at 12:16:38 PM UTC-5, Futbolmetrix wrote:
> > > On Friday, December 2, 2022 at 5:36:33 PM UTC-5, Futbolmetrix wrote:
> > > > On Friday, December 2, 2022 at 12:25:55 PM UTC-5, Futbolmetrix wrote:
> > > Intermediate standings after FRA-POL (intermediate here means score after R16 for teams that have already played, and score after R1 for the others):
> > >
> > > (top 10)
> > >
> > > 1 Jesper -18.891
> >
> > Our great and enlightened leader has given Morocco zero probability of advancing past the round of 16.
> Thanks!
> What additional excitement for the upcoming shoot-out!

Our great and enlightened leader drops to last place.

Intermediate top-12 after MOR-ESP:

1 Red -25.478
2 Jesus Petry -26.044
3 Goalkeepers (by FM) -26.140
4 AIrgentina -26.384
5 Stephen K -26.499
6 FIFA (by FM) -26.536
7 FiveThirtyEight -26.604
8 KU Leuven -26.871
9 cuca -26.905
10 Keanu J -26.967
11 El Pais -26.993
12 TransferMarkt - Adj (by FM) -27.002

On Tuesday, 6 December 2022 at 18:32:24 UTC+1, Futbolmetrix wrote:
> On Sunday, December 4, 2022 at 12:16:38 PM UTC-5, Futbolmetrix wrote:
> > On Friday, December 2, 2022 at 5:36:33 PM UTC-5, Futbolmetrix wrote:
> > > On Friday, December 2, 2022 at 12:25:55 PM UTC-5, Futbolmetrix wrote:
> > Intermediate standings after FRA-POL (intermediate here means score after R16 for teams that have already played, and score after R1 for the others):
> >
> > (top 10)
> >
> > 1 Jesper -18.891
> Our great and enlightened leader has given Morocco zero probability of advancing past the round of 16.

There is nothing under the sun that does not suck.

On Tuesday, December 6, 2022 at 5:30:01 PM UTC-5, Jesper Lauridsen wrote:

> There is nothing under the sun that does not suck.

Standings after the Round of 16:

1 Red -26.673
2 Jesus Petry -27.297
3 Goalkeepers (by FM) -27.649
4 Keanu J -27.651
5 Stephen K -27.692
6 FiveThirtyEight -27.745
7 AIrgentina -27.832
8 KU Leuven -27.965
9 Dan Levy -27.979
10 Defenders (by FM) -27.995
11 FIFA (by FM) -28.014
12 El Pais -28.066
13 cuca -28.069
14 TransferMarkt - Adj (by FM) -28.091
15 Collective Consciousness -28.165
16 TransferMarkt (by FM) -28.203
17 Zander (Tournament Structure) -28.260
18 Bookmaker Consensus Model (by AZ) -28.352
19 Weakest link (by FM) -28.384
20 tm (by FM) -28.426
21 Patrick Flynn -28.510
22 goalprojection -28.563
23 Futbolmetrix -28.607
24 Middle link (by FM) -28.613
25 Strongest link (by FM) -28.618
26 Midfielders (by FM) -28.673
27 Betfair -28.737
28 MH -28.985
29 Opta Analyst -29.026
30 Simon G -29.153
31 Hybrid Machine Learning (by AZ) -29.218
32 Luke Benz -29.363
33 ClubElo/ClubTM (by FM) -29.367
34 Elo (by FM) -29.492
35 KonakaLab -29.509
36 dopemodels.info -29.582
37 Footballgenius -29.600
38 InPlayFootballTips -29.661
39 NT-ELO predictions (by Ed) -29.731
40 Silver Aurora -29.860
41 Fantomen -29.934
42 Volkan Riolo -30.226
43 Lléo -30.402
44 Werner Pichler -30.570
45 Econ1 (by FM) -31.339
46 Historic Match Model (by AZ) -31.571
47 Swiss Football Data -31.962
48 Forwards (by FM) -32.314
49 Anders T -32.729
50 Econ0 (by FM) -33.049
51 FoG -33.271
52 Agnostic -33.271
53 Alessandro Riolo -33.720
54 Scrabble (by FM) -37.456
55 Mark -37.662
56 Q1_Bias (by FM) -40.661
57 Goal Experience (by FM) -41.267
58 Experience (by FM) -47.439
59 Jesper -94.466

Futbolmetrix:

> Intermediate top-12 after MOR-ESP:
>
> 1 Red -25.478
> 2 Jesus Petry -26.044
> 3 Goalkeepers (by FM) -26.140
> 4 AIrgentina -26.384
> 5 Stephen K -26.499
> 6 FIFA (by FM) -26.536
> 7 FiveThirtyEight -26.604
> 8 KU Leuven -26.871
> 9 cuca -26.905
> 10 Keanu J -26.967
> 11 El Pais -26.993
> 12 TransferMarkt - Adj (by FM) -27.002

Yeah, top 12, totally natural way to format a ranking.

--
Cheers
milivella

On Tuesday, December 6, 2022 at 8:47:35 PM UTC-5, milivella wrote:
> Futbolmetrix:
> > Intermediate top-12 after MOR-ESP:
> >

Full standings after the QFs:

Red -33.051
Jesus Petry -33.801
Goalkeepers (by FM) -34.063
FiveThirtyEight -34.080
Defenders (by FM) -34.088
FIFA (by FM) -34.111
Stephen K -34.125
KU Leuven -34.153
TransferMarkt - Adj (by FM) -34.225
cuca -34.247
Collective Consciousness -34.262
Keanu J -34.277
Weakest link (by FM) -34.284
AIrgentina -34.372
TransferMarkt (by FM) -34.472
Bookmaker Consensus Model (by AZ) -34.569
Zander (Tournament Structure) -34.597
El Pais -34.615
Futbolmetrix -34.653
Strongest link (by FM) -34.709
Midfielders (by FM) -34.714
Patrick Flynn -34.813
Middle link (by FM) -34.952
goalprojection -35.029
Opta Analyst -35.056
Betfair -35.070
Simon G -35.169
Luke Benz -35.384
Hybrid Machine Learning (by AZ) -35.581
ClubElo/ClubTM (by FM) -35.627
Elo (by FM) -35.794
Volkan Riolo -35.824
Footballgenius -35.898
Silver Aurora -35.929
dopemodels.info -35.942
tm (by FM) -35.953
InPlayFootballTips -36.246
MH -36.407
NT-ELO predictions (by Ed) -36.513
Fantomen -36.762
KonakaLab -37.477
Econ1 (by FM) -37.828
Swiss Football Data -38.465
Werner Pichler -38.478
FoG -38.816
Agnostic -38.816
Forwards (by FM) -38.866
Alessandro Riolo -39.201
Historic Match Model (by AZ) -39.305
Lléo -39.512
Econ0 (by FM) -39.733
Anders T -42.326
Scrabble (by FM) -44.989
Q1_Bias (by FM) -46.570
Goal Experience (by FM) -47.333
Experience (by FM) -53.836
Dan Levy -68.880
Jesper -99.318
Mark -113.071

More comments here:

https://futbolmetrix.wordpress.com/2022/12/11/wc-2022-sophcon-standings-after-the-qfs/

On Sunday, December 11, 2022 at 1:37:00 AM UTC+1, Futbolmetrix wrote:
> On Tuesday, December 6, 2022 at 8:47:35 PM UTC-5, milivella wrote:
> > Futbolmetrix:
> > > Intermediate top-12 after MOR-ESP:
> > >
> Full standings after the QFs:
>
>
> Goalkeepers (by FM) -34.063
> Defenders (by FM) -34.088
> Midfielders (by FM) -34.714
> Agnostic -38.816
> Forwards (by FM) -38.866

I wonder if there's some old adage or other about this sort of thing.

Ciao,
Werner

On Sunday, December 11, 2022 at 2:36:35 PM UTC+2, Werner Pichler wrote:
> On Sunday, December 11, 2022 at 1:37:00 AM UTC+1, Futbolmetrix wrote:
> > On Tuesday, December 6, 2022 at 8:47:35 PM UTC-5, milivella wrote:
> > > Futbolmetrix:
> > > > Intermediate top-12 after MOR-ESP:
> > > >
> > Full standings after the QFs:
> >
> >
> > Goalkeepers (by FM) -34.063
> > Defenders (by FM) -34.088
> > Midfielders (by FM) -34.714
> > Agnostic -38.816
> > Forwards (by FM) -38.866
> I wonder if there's some old adage or other about this sort of thing.
>

“Much ado about nothing.” – William Shakespeare I

> Ciao,
> Werner

On Sunday, December 11, 2022 at 2:36:35 PM UTC+2, Werner Pichler wrote:
> On Sunday, December 11, 2022 at 1:37:00 AM UTC+1, Futbolmetrix wrote:
> > On Tuesday, December 6, 2022 at 8:47:35 PM UTC-5, milivella wrote:
> > > Futbolmetrix:
> > > > Intermediate top-12 after MOR-ESP:
> > > >
> > Full standings after the QFs:
> >
> >
> > Goalkeepers (by FM) -34.063
> > Defenders (by FM) -34.088
> > Midfielders (by FM) -34.714
> > Agnostic -38.816
> > Forwards (by FM) -38.866
>
I wonder if there's some old adage or other about this sort of thing.
>

“Much ado about nothing.” – William Shakespeare I

On Sunday, December 11, 2022 at 7:36:35 AM UTC-5, Werner Pichler wrote:
> On Sunday, December 11, 2022 at 1:37:00 AM UTC+1, Futbolmetrix wrote:
> > On Tuesday, December 6, 2022 at 8:47:35 PM UTC-5, milivella wrote:
> > > Futbolmetrix:
> > > > Intermediate top-12 after MOR-ESP:
> > > >
> > Full standings after the QFs:
> >
> >
> > Goalkeepers (by FM) -34.063
> > Defenders (by FM) -34.088
> > Midfielders (by FM) -34.714
> > Agnostic -38.816
> > Forwards (by FM) -38.866
> I wonder if there's some old adage or other about this sort of thing.

:-)

But it's about winning championships, not Sophisticated Prediction Contests!

For what it's worth, these are each team's contribution to the current difference in score between Goalkeepers and Forwards:
(Positive values --> better prediction by goalkeepers)

1.2386 Morocco
1.1752 Canada
0.9690 Australia
0.7562 Germany
0.7477 Croatia
0.5995 South Korea
0.5158 Mexico
0.4270 Serbia
0.2619 Qatar
0.2337 Uruguay
0.1864 Iran
0.1502 Denmark
0.1412 Tunisia
0.1401 Argentina
0.1283 Portugal
0.1023 United States
0.0844 Brazil
0.0835 Ghana
0.0824 Switzerland
0.0407 Ecuador
0.0113 Netherlands
-0.0081 Poland
-0.0525 Saudi Arabia
-0.0671 Senegal
-0.1173 Spain
-0.1189 Cameroon
-0.1589 England
-0.3207 Japan
-0.3399 Costa Rica
-0.3608 Wales
-0.7684 Belgium
-0.9595 France

Also, the way Goalkeepers was calculated was...erm...not great. It's the raw TransferMarkt value of the highest rated goalkeeper: so, Germany was given Ter Stegen's value, and France Areola's value. If I had adjusted by age (as I should have), Germany's rating would have been higher (hurting Goalkeeper's score), but France's value too (which would have benefited Goalkeepers)

On Saturday, December 10, 2022 at 7:37:00 PM UTC-5, Futbolmetrix wrote:

Standings after the semifinals:

1 Red -35.228
2 Jesus Petry -35.514
3 Keanu J -36.180
4 Stephen K -36.274
5 FIFA (by FM) -36.314
6 AIrgentina -36.395
7 Collective Consciousness -36.512
8 Defenders (by FM) -36.544
9 Zander (Tournament Structure) -36.545
10 Bookmaker Consensus Model (by AZ) -36.638
11 TransferMarkt - Adj (by FM) -36.688
12 KU Leuven -36.767
13 El Pais -36.774
14 cuca -36.807
15 Weakest link (by FM) -36.815
16 FiveThirtyEight -36.828
17 TransferMarkt (by FM) -36.831
18 Futbolmetrix -36.884
19 Goalkeepers (by FM) -36.915
20 Opta Analyst -37.088
21 Betfair -37.107
22 Strongest link (by FM) -37.234
23 Patrick Flynn -37.247
24 Middle link (by FM) -37.325
25 goalprojection -37.419
26 Midfielders (by FM) -37.467
27 Hybrid Machine Learning (by AZ) -37.599
28 Luke Benz -37.600
29 Simon G -37.653
30 ClubElo/ClubTM (by FM) -37.836
31 Elo (by FM) -37.957
32 dopemodels.info -38.073
33 tm (by FM) -38.096
34 InPlayFootballTips -38.125
35 Footballgenius -38.138
36 Silver Aurora -38.196
37 Volkan Riolo -38.545
38 Fantomen -38.687
39 NT-ELO predictions (by Ed) -38.786
40 MH -38.814
41 KonakaLab -39.579
42 Econ1 (by FM) -39.787
43 Swiss Football Data -40.761
44 Forwards (by FM) -41.009
45 Lléo -41.278
46 Werner Pichler -41.281
47 Historic Match Model (by AZ) -41.506
48 Agnostic -41.589
49 FoG -41.589
50 Econ0 (by FM) -41.868
51 Alessandro Riolo -41.958
52 Anders T -44.929
53 Scrabble (by FM) -48.611
54 Q1_Bias (by FM) -48.878
55 Goal Experience (by FM) -49.810
56 Experience (by FM) -56.360
57 Jesper -101.398
58 Dan Levy -105.899
59 Mark -114.380

Might as well reveal that Red is going to win this. Jesus is also certain of second place. If I hadn't been a softie gamemaster and accepted Red's late entry, Jesus would have taken the crown. Now I feel bad.

Also, top 3 based on different scoring systems, depending on who wins the final:

If France wins:
Log (official SophCon scoring system): Red, Jesus, FIFA
Brier: Jesper, Red, Goalkeepers
Ranked Probability Scoring: Jesper, Red, Jesus

If Argentina wins:
Log: Red, Jesus, Keanu
Brier: Jesper, Red, Goalkeepers
RPS: Jesper, Jesus, Red

Em quarta-feira, 14 de dezembro de 2022 às 20:49:28 UTC-3, Futbolmetrix escreveu:
> 45 Lléo -41.278
> 46 Werner Pichler -41.281
> 47 Historic Match Model (by AZ) -41.506
> 48 Agnostic -41.589

Well, at least I'm beating the agnostic prediction, but man. Surely my worst ever shot at a
WC SPC, at least that I can remember.

Best regards,

Lléo

On Wednesday, December 14, 2022 at 8:49:44 PM UTC-5, Lléo wrote:

And these are the final SophCon standings:

1 Red -36.500
2 Jesus Petry -36.900
3 Keanu J -37.389
4 Stephen K -37.554
5 FIFA (by FM) -37.656
6 AIrgentina -37.679
7 Collective Consciousness -37.763
8 Zander (Tournament Structure) -37.786
9 Bookmaker Consensus Model (by AZ) -38.003
10 KU Leuven -38.058
11 Goalkeepers (by FM) -38.062
12 Defenders (by FM) -38.120
13 El Pais -38.129
14 TransferMarkt - Adj (by FM) -38.131
15 Futbolmetrix -38.206
16 Weakest link (by FM) -38.242
17 FiveThirtyEight -38.275
18 cuca -38.294
19 Patrick Flynn -38.349
20 TransferMarkt (by FM) -38.373
21 Opta Analyst -38.393
22 Betfair -38.483
23 Strongest link (by FM) -38.754
24 Simon G -38.776
25 dopemodels.info -38.801
26 Middle link (by FM) -38.857
27 Midfielders (by FM) -38.859
28 Luke Benz -38.931
29 Hybrid Machine Learning (by AZ) -38.949
30 goalprojection -38.960
31 Elo (by FM) -38.979
32 InPlayFootballTips -39.326
33 ClubElo/ClubTM (by FM) -39.364
34 NT-ELO predictions (by Ed) -39.516
35 Silver Aurora -39.517
36 Footballgenius -39.535
37 Fantomen -39.623
38 Volkan Riolo -39.931
39 tm (by FM) -40.043
40 MH -40.201
41 KonakaLab -40.371
42 Econ1 (by FM) -41.248
43 Swiss Football Data -42.002
44 Forwards (by FM) -42.534
45 Historic Match Model (by AZ) -42.613
46 Lléo -42.664
47 Werner Pichler -42.668
48 FoG -42.975
49 Agnostic -42.975
50 Alessandro Riolo -43.344
51 Econ0 (by FM) -43.661
52 Anders T -46.315
53 Q1_Bias (by FM) -50.264
54 Scrabble (by FM) -50.506
55 Goal Experience (by FM) -51.133
56 Experience (by FM) -58.006
57 Jesper -102.784
58 Dan Levy -106.694
59 Mark -115.570

Congrats to Red, to Jesus P for a very prestigious second place, and to Jesper, who would have won the whole thing if we had used a different scoring rule (that doesn't penalize as much putting a zero on events that eventually don't happen).

Quoting Futbolmetrix in rec.sport.soccer:

>52 Anders T -46.315

My points per team:
-9,21034 Morocco
-4,60517 Croatia
-2,41128 South Korea
-2,30259 Belgium
-2,30259 Brazil
-1,96826 Japan
-1,89712 Germany
-1,89712 Uruguay
-1,61445 Australia
-1,60944 Argentina
-1,60944 France
-1,60944 Portugal
-1,42837 Switzerland
-1,38629 Denmark
-1,38629 Spain
-1,34707 United States
-1,30933 Senegal
-0,86750 Poland
-0,77675 England
-0,64436 Mexico
-0,53803 Netherlands
-0,51099 Ecuador
-0,44644 Serbia
-0,43078 Wales
-0,43078 Ghana
-0,38566 Cameroon
-0,35667 Qatar
-0,35667 Iran
-0,35667 Canada
-0,16252 Costa Rica
-0,10536 Tunisia
-0,05129 Saudi Arabia

--
Manchester United FC - CHAMPIONS
Latest: England '13 (20th) Europa '17, UEFA '08, World '08

On Sunday, December 18, 2022 at 10:32:15 PM UTC+1, Futbolmetrix wrote:
> On Wednesday, December 14, 2022 at 8:49:44 PM UTC-5, Lléo wrote:
>
> And these are the final SophCon standings:
>
> 1 Red -36.500

What was Red's algorithm and why was it so good?
> 2 Jesus Petry -36.900
> 3 Keanu J -37.389
> 4 Stephen K -37.554
> 5 FIFA (by FM) -37.656

This I find really surprising.
> 6 AIrgentina -37.679

What's this, exactly?

> 7 Collective Consciousness -37.763
> 8 Zander (Tournament Structure) -37.786

Also, this?
> 47 Werner Pichler -42.668
> 48 FoG -42.975
> 49 Agnostic -42.975

Phew.

>
> Congrats to Red, to Jesus P for a very prestigious second place, and to Jesper, who would have won the whole thing if we had used a different scoring rule (that doesn't penalize as much putting a zero on events
> that eventually don't happen).

That's the SophCon. Hard, but unforgiving.

Ciao,
Werner

On Sunday, December 18, 2022 at 9:32:15 PM UTC, Futbolmetrix wrote:
> On Wednesday, December 14, 2022 at 8:49:44 PM UTC-5, Lléo wrote:
>
> And these are the final SophCon standings:
>
> 1 Red -36.500
> 2 Jesus Petry -36.900
> 3 Keanu J -37.389
> 4 Stephen K -37.554
> 5 FIFA (by FM) -37.656
> 6 AIrgentina -37.679
> 7 Collective Consciousness -37.763
> 8 Zander (Tournament Structure) -37.786
> 9 Bookmaker Consensus Model (by AZ) -38.003
> 10 KU Leuven -38.058
> 11 Goalkeepers (by FM) -38.062
> 12 Defenders (by FM) -38.120
> 13 El Pais -38.129
> 14 TransferMarkt - Adj (by FM) -38.131
> 15 Futbolmetrix -38.206
> 16 Weakest link (by FM) -38.242
> 17 FiveThirtyEight -38.275
> 18 cuca -38.294
> 19 Patrick Flynn -38.349
> 20 TransferMarkt (by FM) -38.373
> 21 Opta Analyst -38.393
> 22 Betfair -38.483
> 23 Strongest link (by FM) -38.754
> 24 Simon G -38.776
> 25 dopemodels.info -38.801
> 26 Middle link (by FM) -38.857
> 27 Midfielders (by FM) -38.859
> 28 Luke Benz -38.931
> 29 Hybrid Machine Learning (by AZ) -38.949
> 30 goalprojection -38.960
> 31 Elo (by FM) -38.979
> 32 InPlayFootballTips -39.326
> 33 ClubElo/ClubTM (by FM) -39.364
> 34 NT-ELO predictions (by Ed) -39.516
> 35 Silver Aurora -39.517
> 36 Footballgenius -39.535
> 37 Fantomen -39.623
> 38 Volkan Riolo -39.931
> 39 tm (by FM) -40.043
> 40 MH -40.201
> 41 KonakaLab -40.371
> 42 Econ1 (by FM) -41.248
> 43 Swiss Football Data -42.002
> 44 Forwards (by FM) -42.534
> 45 Historic Match Model (by AZ) -42.613
> 46 Lléo -42.664
> 47 Werner Pichler -42.668
> 48 FoG -42.975
> 49 Agnostic -42.975
> 50 Alessandro Riolo -43.344
> 51 Econ0 (by FM) -43.661
> 52 Anders T -46.315
> 53 Q1_Bias (by FM) -50.264
> 54 Scrabble (by FM) -50.506
> 55 Goal Experience (by FM) -51.133
> 56 Experience (by FM) -58.006
> 57 Jesper -102.784
> 58 Dan Levy -106.694
> 59 Mark -115.570
>
So apart from having a computer that won't open the spreadsheet and not having a battery in my calculator so I had to do all the calculations using a pencil and paper, what did I do wrong?