FiveThirtyEight may be dead, but the SophCon is not. Women's World Cup opens in a few days, go to the link below to download the spreadsheet.

https://futbolmetrix.wordpress.com/2023/07/16/womens-world-cup-2023-sophisticated-prediction-contest/

Deadline is kickoff of the first match, which is some time on Thursday, July 20 or maybe Wednesday July 19, depending on which part of the world you are in.

On Sunday, July 16, 2023 at 7:36:36 PM UTC+1, Futbolmetrix wrote:
> FiveThirtyEight may be dead, but the SophCon is not. Women's World Cup opens in a few days, go to the link below to download the spreadsheet.
>
> https://futbolmetrix.wordpress.com/2023/07/16/womens-world-cup-2023-sophisticated-prediction-contest/
>
> Deadline is kickoff of the first match, which is some time on Thursday, July 20 or maybe Wednesday July 19, depending on which part of the world you are in.

Yay!

As usual, my computer won't open the spreadsheet though.

What's the log of 0? I don't understand the scoring system.

And why is it sophisticated anyway? What's the reasoning behind using probabilities?

On Sunday, July 16, 2023 at 8:36:36 PM UTC+2, Futbolmetrix wrote:
> FiveThirtyEight may be dead, but the SophCon is not. Women's World Cup opens in a few days, go to the link below to download the spreadsheet.
>
> https://futbolmetrix.wordpress.com/2023/07/16/womens-world-cup-2023-sophisticated-prediction-contest/
>
> Deadline is kickoff of the first match, which is some time on Thursday, July 20 or maybe Wednesday July 19, depending on which part of the world you are in.

Oh dammit I missed it. Stupid time difference.

Ciao,
Werner

On Thursday, July 20, 2023 at 10:29:25 AM UTC+1, Werner Pichler wrote:
> On Sunday, July 16, 2023 at 8:36:36 PM UTC+2, Futbolmetrix wrote:
> > FiveThirtyEight may be dead, but the SophCon is not. Women's World Cup opens in a few days, go to the link below to download the spreadsheet.
> >
> > https://futbolmetrix.wordpress.com/2023/07/16/womens-world-cup-2023-sophisticated-prediction-contest/
> >
> > Deadline is kickoff of the first match, which is some time on Thursday, July 20 or maybe Wednesday July 19, depending on which part of the world you are in.
> Oh dammit I missed it. Stupid time difference.
>
> Ciao,
> Werner

What's the penalty for missing the deadline? I'm still thinking of sending a late entry.

On Thursday, July 20, 2023 at 7:20:32 AM UTC-4, Mark wrote:
> On Thursday, July 20, 2023 at 10:29:25 AM UTC+1, Werner Pichler wrote:
> > On Sunday, July 16, 2023 at 8:36:36 PM UTC+2, Futbolmetrix wrote:
> > > FiveThirtyEight may be dead, but the SophCon is not. Women's World Cup opens in a few days, go to the link below to download the spreadsheet.
> > >
> > > https://futbolmetrix.wordpress.com/2023/07/16/womens-world-cup-2023-sophisticated-prediction-contest/
> > >
> > > Deadline is kickoff of the first match, which is some time on Thursday, July 20 or maybe Wednesday July 19, depending on which part of the world you are in.
> > Oh dammit I missed it. Stupid time difference.
> What's the penalty for missing the deadline? I'm still thinking of sending a late entry.

As usual, I will accept late submissions, as long as you pinky-swear that you formulated your predictions before the tournament started.

On Sunday, July 16, 2023 at 2:36:36 PM UTC-4, Futbolmetrix wrote:
> FiveThirtyEight may be dead, but the SophCon is not. Women's World Cup opens in a few days, go to the link below to download the spreadsheet.
>
> https://futbolmetrix.wordpress.com/2023/07/16/womens-world-cup-2023-sophisticated-prediction-contest/
>
> Deadline is kickoff of the first match, which is some time on Thursday, July 20 or maybe Wednesday July 19, depending on which part of the world you are in.

Current list of participants:

S01 Agnostic
S02 FIFA
S03 RankFootball
S04 Econ
S05 Anders T
S06 Fantomen
S07 AIrgentina
S08 dopemodels.info
S09 Futbolmetrix
S10 Elo (by Futbolmetrix)
S11 Elo20 (by Futbolmetrix)
S12 Elo60 (by Futbolmetrix)
S13 Rosalie
S14 Keanu J

On Tuesday, July 18, 2023 at 7:20:57 AM UTC-4, Mark wrote:

> As usual, my computer won't open the spreadsheet though.

I just sent you an email.

>
> What's the log of 0?
Not defined. The limit of log(epsilon) as epsilon --> 0 = -infinity

> I don't understand the scoring system.
Assign high numbers to probabilities of events that you think will happen (USA wins the WC, Philippines get knocked out in the first round), and low probabilities to events that you think are unlikely (Italy wins the WC)
> And why is it sophisticated anyway? What's the reasoning behind using probabilities?
Suppose we both say that Zambia will win the World Cup, and they do in fact go on and win it. How do we know who made the better prediction? But if you gave Zambia a 95% probability, and I gave Zambia a 5% probability, wouldn't you say that your prediction was more accurate?

On Thursday, July 20, 2023 at 2:51:18 PM UTC+2, Futbolmetrix wrote:
> On Thursday, July 20, 2023 at 7:20:32 AM UTC-4, Mark wrote:
> > On Thursday, July 20, 2023 at 10:29:25 AM UTC+1, Werner Pichler wrote:
> > > On Sunday, July 16, 2023 at 8:36:36 PM UTC+2, Futbolmetrix wrote:
> > > > FiveThirtyEight may be dead, but the SophCon is not. Women's World Cup opens in a few days, go to the link below to download the spreadsheet.
> > > >
> > > > https://futbolmetrix.wordpress.com/2023/07/16/womens-world-cup-2023-sophisticated-prediction-contest/
> > > >
> > > > Deadline is kickoff of the first match, which is some time on Thursday, July 20 or maybe Wednesday July 19, depending on which part of the world you are in.
> > > Oh dammit I missed it. Stupid time difference.
> > What's the penalty for missing the deadline? I'm still thinking of sending a late entry.
>
> As usual, I will accept late submissions, as long as you pinky-swear that you formulated your predictions before the tournament started.

Nah, it would be a lie. I was simply off by one day.

Perhaps I'll just leave a couple of unsophisticated predictions here - England will lose the final against the US
in excruciating fashion, Germany and Sweden will go out in the quarters, and Marta will get a medal.

Ciao,
Werner

On Thursday, July 20, 2023 at 11:33:25 AM UTC-4, Werner Pichler wrote:

> > As usual, I will accept late submissions, as long as you pinky-swear that you formulated your predictions before the tournament started.
> Nah, it would be a lie. I was simply off by one day.

OK. then I'll accept predictions even if you know already the results of NZL-NOR (admittedly, some new information there) and AUS-IRL (no real news there)

For what it's worth, in the WC 2022 SophCon, MatchDay1 (predictions based on Elo ratings, taking into account *all* the outcomes after the first round of matches) finished in 33rd place out of 63 participants. (Match Day 2, however, would have won the whole thing...)

> Perhaps I'll just leave a couple of unsophisticated predictions here - England will lose the final against the US
> in excruciating fashion, Germany and Sweden will go out in the quarters, and Marta will get a medal.

I have a hunch that Germany will come out of the Australian part of the draw. USA to win it.

My human predictions:

P_R1 P_R16 P_QF P_SF P_LF P_WF Total
A New Zealand .3500 .5500 .0800 .0150 .0040 .0010 1.0000 OK
Norway .1000 .6000 .1950 .0900 .0100 .0050 1.0000 OK
Philippines .9995 .0001 .0001 .0001 .0001 .0001 1.0000 OK
Switzerland .5505 .4199 .0239 .0037 .0010 .0010 1.0000 OK
2.0000
OK
C Spain .0001 .1680 .4920 .0550 .1250 .1599 1.0000 OK
Costa Rica .9900 .0060 .0020 .0012 .0005 .0003 1.0000 OK
Zambia .9900 .0060 .0020 .0012 .0005 .0003 1.0000 OK
Japan .0199 .2500 .3800 .3250 .0220 .0031 1.0000 OK
2.0000 2.0000
OK OK
E USA .0100 .0500 .2600 .1800 .2063 .2937 1.0000 OK
Vietnam .9995 .0001 .0001 .0001 .0001 .0001 1.0000 OK
Netherlands .2500 .3900 .1849 .1051 .0390 .0310 1.0000 OK
Portugal .7405 .2295 .0100 .0200 .0000 .0000 1.0000 OK
2.0000
OK
G Sweden .0300 .3404 .3500 .1836 .0500 .0460 1.0000 OK
South Africa .9800 .0200 .0000 .0000 .0000 .0000 1.0000 OK
Italy .3600 .6100 .0100 .0200 .0000 .0000 1.0000 OK
Argentina .6300 .3600 .0100 .0000 .0000 .0000 1.0000 OK
2.0000 2.0000 2.0000 1.0000
OK OK OK OK


B Australia .0800 .3429 .2500 .1971 .0700 .0600 1.0000 OK
Ireland .8000 .1800 .0150 .0030 .0010 .0010 1.0000 OK
Nigeria .9900 .0070 .0010 .0010 .0005 .0005 1.0000 OK
Canada .1300 .3900 .3000 .0900 .0500 .0400 1.0000 OK
2.0000
OK
D England .0001 .3000 .2500 .2200 .1204 .1095 1.0000 OK
Haiti .9999 .0001 .0000 .0000 .0000 .0000 1.0000 OK
Denmark .2000 .6000 .1500 .0350 .0090 .0060 1.0000 OK
China .8000 .1800 .0150 .0030 .0010 .0010 1.0000 OK
2.0000 2.0000
OK OK
F France .0100 .3800 .3100 .1450 .0848 .0702 1.0000 OK
Jamaica .9900 .0060 .0010 .0010 .0010 .0010 1.0000 OK
Brazil .0100 .6100 .1800 .1150 .0480 .0370 1.0000 OK
Panama .9900 .0080 .0010 .0004 .0003 .0003 1.0000 OK
2.0000
OK
H Germany .0001 .3300 .2600 .1604 .1305 .1190 1.0000 OK
Morocco .9800 .0090 .0050 .0030 .0020 .0010 1.0000 OK
Colombia .9300 .0570 .0050 .0030 .0030 .0020 1.0000 OK
South Korea .0899 .6000 .2570 .0231 .0200 .0100 1.0000 OK
2.0000 2.0000 2.0000 1.0000 1.0000 1.0000 32.0000
OK OK OK OK OK OK OK

On Thursday, July 20, 2023 at 11:58:54 AM UTC-4, Futbolmetrix wrote:

> My human predictions:

More readable?

P_R1 P_R16 P_QF P_SF P_LF P_WF
New Zealand .3500 .5500 .0800 .0150 .0040 .0010
Norway .1000 .6000 .1950 .0900 .0100 .0050
Philippines .9995 .0001 .0001 .0001 .0001 .0001
Switzerland .5505 .4199 .0239 .0037 .0010 .0010


Spain .0001 .1680 .4920 .0550 .1250 .1599
Costa Rica .9900 .0060 .0020 .0012 .0005 .0003
Zambia .9900 .0060 .0020 .0012 .0005 .0003
Japan .0199 .2500 .3800 .3250 .0220 .0031


USA .0100 .0500 .2600 .1800 .2063 .2937
Vietnam .9995 .0001 .0001 .0001 .0001 .0001
Netherlands .2500 .3900 .1849 .1051 .0390 .0310
Portugal .7405 .2295 .0100 .0200 .0000 .0000


Sweden .0300 .3404 .3500 .1836 .0500 .0460
South Africa .9800 .0200 .0000 .0000 .0000 .0000
Italy .3600 .6100 .0100 .0200 .0000 .0000
Argentina .6300 .3600 .0100 .0000 .0000 .0000




Australia .0800 .3429 .2500 .1971 .0700 .0600
Ireland .8000 .1800 .0150 .0030 .0010 .0010
Nigeria .9900 .0070 .0010 .0010 .0005 .0005
Canada .1300 .3900 .3000 .0900 .0500 .0400


England .0001 .3000 .2500 .2200 .1204 .1095
Haiti .9999 .0001 .0000 .0000 .0000 .0000
Denmark .2000 .6000 .1500 .0350 .0090 .0060
China .8000 .1800 .0150 .0030 .0010 .0010


France .0100 .3800 .3100 .1450 .0848 .0702
Jamaica .9900 .0060 .0010 .0010 .0010 .0010
Brazil .0100 .6100 .1800 .1150 .0480 .0370
Panama .9900 .0080 .0010 .0004 .0003 .0003


Germany .0001 .3300 .2600 .1604 .1305 .1190
Morocco .9800 .0090 .0050 .0030 .0020 .0010
Colombia .9300 .0570 .0050 .0030 .0030 .0020
South Korea .0899 .6000 .2570 .0231 .0200 .0100

On Thursday, July 20, 2023 at 2:04:13 PM UTC+1, Futbolmetrix wrote:
> On Tuesday, July 18, 2023 at 7:20:57 AM UTC-4, Mark wrote:
>
> > As usual, my computer won't open the spreadsheet though.
> I just sent you an email.
> >
> > What's the log of 0?
> Not defined. The limit of log(epsilon) as epsilon --> 0 = -infinity

How do you decide what score to give to probabilities of 0 then?

> > I don't understand the scoring system.
> Assign high numbers to probabilities of events that you think will happen (USA wins the WC, Philippines get knocked out in the first round), and low probabilities to events that you think are unlikely (Italy wins the WC)

And then the logs of the correct predictions are all added up, and that total minus the sum of the logs of incorrect predictions is your score?

What are these alternative scoring systems that don't use logs? And have they ever been used?

What's the record for the worst score ever in a World Cup SPC? And what are my chances of breaking it?

> > And why is it sophisticated anyway? What's the reasoning behind using probabilities?
> Suppose we both say that Zambia will win the World Cup, and they do in fact go on and win it. How do we know who made the better prediction? But if you gave Zambia a 95% probability, and I gave Zambia a 5% probability, wouldn't you say that your prediction was more accurate?

On Saturday, July 22, 2023 at 5:01:59 AM UTC-4, Mark wrote:
> How do you decide what score to give to probabilities of 0 then?

I transform that to log (10^(-32)). That's enough to make sure that you lose for sure.

> > > I don't understand the scoring system.
> > Assign high numbers to probabilities of events that you think will happen (USA wins the WC, Philippines get knocked out in the first round), and low probabilities to events that you think are unlikely (Italy wins the WC)
> And then the logs of the correct predictions are all added up, and that total minus the sum of the logs of incorrect predictions is your score?

Actually, you add up only the scores of the of the events that actually happen.

>
> What are these alternative scoring systems that don't use logs? And have they ever been used?

The most popular is the Brier score: for each prediction, calculate (predicted probability - actual outcome)^2, then add everything up. I will report standings based on that too. Most of the time, but not always, the winner according to the two systems is the same.

>
> What's the record for the worst score ever in a World Cup SPC? And what are my chances of breaking it?

Don't know, and pretty high.

On Saturday, July 22, 2023 at 1:35:12 PM UTC+1, Futbolmetrix wrote:
> On Saturday, July 22, 2023 at 5:01:59 AM UTC-4, Mark wrote:
> > How do you decide what score to give to probabilities of 0 then?
> I transform that to log (10^(-32)). That's enough to make sure that you lose for sure.
> > > > I don't understand the scoring system.
> > > Assign high numbers to probabilities of events that you think will happen (USA wins the WC, Philippines get knocked out in the first round), and low probabilities to events that you think are unlikely (Italy wins the WC)
> > And then the logs of the correct predictions are all added up, and that total minus the sum of the logs of incorrect predictions is your score?
> Actually, you add up only the scores of the of the events that actually happen.
> >
> > What are these alternative scoring systems that don't use logs? And have they ever been used?
> The most popular is the Brier score: for each prediction, calculate (predicted probability - actual outcome)^2, then add everything up. I will report standings based on that too. Most of the time, but not always, the winner according to the two systems is the same.
> >
> > What's the record for the worst score ever in a World Cup SPC? And what are my chances of breaking it?
> Don't know, and pretty high.

Hey am I winning this? I think all the teams that have gone out are teams that I gave a high probability of going out in the 1st round and all the teams that are definitely through are teams that I gave a low probability of going out in the 1st round; and I think there's still a mathematical possibility of me getting all 16 right.

Not much chance of it staying that way mind; I can't see all of New Zealand, Norway, Australia and Canada going through for instance.

On Thursday, July 20, 2023 at 5:33:25 PM UTC+2, Werner Pichler wrote:
> On Thursday, July 20, 2023 at 2:51:18 PM UTC+2, Futbolmetrix wrote:
> > On Thursday, July 20, 2023 at 7:20:32 AM UTC-4, Mark wrote:
> > > On Thursday, July 20, 2023 at 10:29:25 AM UTC+1, Werner Pichler wrote:
> > > > On Sunday, July 16, 2023 at 8:36:36 PM UTC+2, Futbolmetrix wrote:
> > > > > FiveThirtyEight may be dead, but the SophCon is not. Women's World Cup opens in a few days, go to the link below to download the spreadsheet..
> > > > >
> > > > > https://futbolmetrix.wordpress.com/2023/07/16/womens-world-cup-2023-sophisticated-prediction-contest/
> > > > >
> > > > > Deadline is kickoff of the first match, which is some time on Thursday, July 20 or maybe Wednesday July 19, depending on which part of the world you
> > > > > are in.
> > > > >
> > > > Oh dammit I missed it. Stupid time difference.
> > >
> > > What's the penalty for missing the deadline? I'm still thinking of sending a late entry.
> >
> > As usual, I will accept late submissions, as long as you pinky-swear that you formulated your predictions before the tournament started.
>
> Nah, it would be a lie. I was simply off by one day.
>
> Perhaps I'll just leave a couple of unsophisticated predictions here - England will lose the final against the US
> in excruciating fashion, Germany and Sweden will go out in the quarters, and Marta will get a medal.

I might have severely underestimated Japan.

Ciao,
Werner

On Monday, July 31, 2023 at 5:19:58 AM UTC-4, Werner Pichler wrote:

> I might have severely underestimated Japan.

Or severely overestimated Spain? There was always the concern that their extreme tiki-taka would be found out once they faced real opposition. Better in a semi-meaningless group game, I guess, but it's not clear that they can adjust and do something different.

On Monday, July 31, 2023 at 1:19:16 PM UTC+2, Futbolmetrix wrote:
> On Monday, July 31, 2023 at 5:19:58 AM UTC-4, Werner Pichler wrote:
>
> > I might have severely underestimated Japan.
>
> Or severely overestimated Spain?

And Canada, for that matter.

Ciao,
Werner

> There was always the concern that their extreme tiki-taka would be found out once they faced real opposition. Better in a semi-meaningless group game, I guess,
> but it's not clear that they can adjust and do something different.

On Monday, July 31, 2023 at 7:45:46 AM UTC-4, Werner Pichler wrote:
> On Monday, July 31, 2023 at 1:19:16 PM UTC+2, Futbolmetrix wrote:
> > On Monday, July 31, 2023 at 5:19:58 AM UTC-4, Werner Pichler wrote:
> >
> > > I might have severely underestimated Japan.
> >
> > Or severely overestimated Spain?
> And Canada, for that matter.

Standings at the end of Round 1:

Bookmaker Consensus -19.301
OPTA(*) -19.906
Fantomen -20.560
Keanu J -21.798
Agnostic -22.181
Rosalie -22.252
TwentyFirstGroup -22.787
Elo60 (by Futbolmetrix) -23.357
Werner Pichler -23.597
Collective Consciousness -23.738
Elo (by Futbolmetrix) -24.232
Elo20 (by Futbolmetrix) -25.804
AIrgentina -26.616
DTAI Sports Analytics -27.789
Econ -33.084
dopemodels.info -34.171
RankFootball -35.616
FIFA -36.090
Futbolmetrix -42.840
Anders T -63.508
Mark -1031.558

Ouch.

On Thursday, August 3, 2023 at 2:19:42 PM UTC+2, Futbolmetrix wrote:
> On Monday, July 31, 2023 at 7:45:46 AM UTC-4, Werner Pichler wrote:
> > On Monday, July 31, 2023 at 1:19:16 PM UTC+2, Futbolmetrix wrote:
> > > On Monday, July 31, 2023 at 5:19:58 AM UTC-4, Werner Pichler wrote:
> > >
> > > > I might have severely underestimated Japan.
> > >
> > > Or severely overestimated Spain?
> > And Canada, for that matter.
> Standings at the end of Round 1:
>
> Bookmaker Consensus -19.301
> OPTA(*) -19.906
> Fantomen -20.560
> Keanu J -21.798
> Agnostic -22.181
> Rosalie -22.252
> TwentyFirstGroup -22.787
> Elo60 (by Futbolmetrix) -23.357
> Werner Pichler -23.597
> Collective Consciousness -23.738
> Elo (by Futbolmetrix) -24.232
> Elo20 (by Futbolmetrix) -25.804
> AIrgentina -26.616
> DTAI Sports Analytics -27.789
> Econ -33.084
> dopemodels.info -34.171
> RankFootball -35.616
> FIFA -36.090
> Futbolmetrix -42.840
> Anders T -63.508
> Mark -1031.558
>
> Ouch.

Aggie's having a field day.
Who did Mark have as 100% certain to progress? Germany, Canada, or Brazil?

Ciao,
Werner

On Thursday, August 3, 2023 at 8:54:47 AM UTC-4, Werner Pichler wrote:

> Aggie's having a field day.

As if he cared...

> Who did Mark have as 100% certain to progress? Germany, Canada, or Brazil?

Yes. Mark decided to go fully unsophisticated, targeting the Brier score.

On Thursday, August 3, 2023 at 5:00:39 PM UTC-4, Futbolmetrix wrote:
> On Thursday, August 3, 2023 at 8:54:47 AM UTC-4, Werner Pichler wrote:
>
> > Aggie's having a field day.
> As if he cared...
> > Who did Mark have as 100% certain to progress? Germany, Canada, or Brazil?
> Yes. Mark decided to go fully unsophisticated, targeting the Brier score.

Standings after the QFs:

OPTA(*) -32.746
Bookmaker Consensus -32.769
Fantomen -33.750
Keanu J -35.149
TwentyFirstGroup -36.468
Elo60 (by Futbolmetrix) -36.668
Collective Consciousness -37.173
Werner Pichler -37.377
Elo (by Futbolmetrix) -38.016
Agnostic -38.816
Rosalie -39.906
DTAI Sports Analytics -40.219
Elo20 (by Futbolmetrix) -41.021
AIrgentina -42.506
dopemodels.info -47.789
Econ -47.912
RankFootball -48.081
FIFA -49.242
Futbolmetrix -58.557
Anders T -81.771
Mark -1473.654

Werner edges ahead of Agnostic and becomes the only human to avoid the Hall of Shame.

On Saturday, August 12, 2023 at 5:09:50 PM UTC-4, Futbolmetrix wrote:

Standings after the semis:

Bookmaker Consensus -35.105
OPTA(*) -35.107
Fantomen -36.433
Keanu J -36.891
TwentyFirstGroup -38.516
Elo60 (by Futbolmetrix) -39.323
Collective Consciousness -39.386
Werner Pichler -40.040
Elo (by Futbolmetrix) -40.723
Agnostic -41.589
DTAI Sports Analytics -42.197
Rosalie -43.022
Elo20 (by Futbolmetrix) -43.872
AIrgentina -44.861
dopemodels.info -49.907
RankFootball -50.573
Econ -50.941
FIFA -51.919
Futbolmetrix -60.332
Anders T -86.306
Mark -1473.654

It's between OPTA (England) and the Bookmaker Consensus (Spain) for the title. OPTA has an asterisk because I entered its predictions after the first day of matches (surprise result: NZ beat Norway). Even though I was able to recover its pre-tournament predictions for Group A, that result may have had repercussions on all the rest of the predictions.

On 2023-07-31, Futbolmetrix <daniele.paserman@gmail.com> wrote:
> On Monday, July 31, 2023 at 5:19:58 AM UTC-4, Werner Pichler wrote:
>
>> I might have severely underestimated Japan.
>
> Or severely overestimated Spain?

Seems rather unlikely...

On Sunday, August 20, 2023 at 8:03:16 AM UTC-4, Jesper Lauridsen wrote:
> On 2023-07-31, Futbolmetrix <daniele....@gmail.com> wrote:
> > On Monday, July 31, 2023 at 5:19:58 AM UTC-4, Werner Pichler wrote:
> >
> >> I might have severely underestimated Japan.
> >
> > Or severely overestimated Spain?
> Seems rather unlikely...

Indeed.

Final SophCon standings:

Bookmaker Consensus -36.616
OPTA(*) -36.635
Fantomen -37.783
Keanu J -38.076
TwentyFirstGroup -39.863
Collective Consciousness -40.813
Elo60 (by Futbolmetrix) -40.981
Werner Pichler -41.426
Elo (by Futbolmetrix) -42.247
Agnostic -42.975
DTAI Sports Analytics -43.930
Rosalie -44.710
Elo20 (by Futbolmetrix) -45.351
AIrgentina -46.370
dopemodels.info -51.950
RankFootball -52.031
Econ -52.197
FIFA -53.368
Futbolmetrix -61.556
Anders T -88.228
Mark -1473.654

Congrats to the bookies, I guess. Werner first of the humans, and manages to avoid the Hall of Shame.
More analysis, including alternative rankings, here: https://futbolmetrix.wordpress.com/2023/08/20/wwc2023-sophcon-final-standings/

How my points were distributed.

South Africa__ -11,51292546497
Nigeria_______ -11,51292546497
Jamaica_______ -11,51292546497
Morocco_______ -11,51292546497
Brazil________ -9,90348755254
Spain_________ -4,60517018599
Germany_______ -2,99573227355
USA___________ -2,30258509299
Canada________ -2,30258509299
Colombia______ -2,30258509299
England_______ -1,93164241892
Australia_____ -1,89711998489
Sweden________ -1,71485398519
Netherlands___ -1,68739945390
France________ -1,20427284933
New Zealand___ -1,20397280433
Norway________ -1,04985069634
Italy_________ -1,04982212450
Denmark_______ -1,04979355348
Japan_________ -0,96761034240
South Korea___ -0,85554846992
Switzerland___ -0,79850769622
China_________ -0,79850769622
Argentina_____ -0,59774609580
Costa Rica____ -0,51074229390
Portugal______ -0,22309355256
Ireland_______ -0,22308105327
Philippines___ -0,00005000125
Zambia________ -0,00005000125
Vietnam_______ -0,00005000125
Haiti_________ -0,00005000125
Panama________ -0,00005000125

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Manchester United FC - CHAMPIONS
Latest: England '13 (20th) Europa '17, UEFA '08, World '08

On Sunday, August 20, 2023 at 3:55:52 PM UTC+1, Futbolmetrix wrote:

> Mark -1473.654
>
Is this officially a record for the worst score ever?

What's going to happen in 2026? Unless I buy a battery for my calculator and a computer that actually downloads spreadsheets before then, it's going to be even more complicated then isn't it?

Will there be an SPC for the Olympics next year?