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sport / rec.sport.soccer / Re: All you ever wanted to know about the SophCon...

SubjectAuthor
* All you ever wanted to know about the SophCon...Futbolmetrix
`* Re: All you ever wanted to know about the SophCon...MH
 `* Re: All you ever wanted to know about the SophCon...Futbolmetrix
  `* Re: All you ever wanted to know about the SophCon...MH
   `* Re: All you ever wanted to know about the SophCon...Futbolmetrix
    +* Re: All you ever wanted to know about the SophCon...Werner Pichler
    |`* Re: All you ever wanted to know about the SophCon...Werner Pichler
    | `- Re: All you ever wanted to know about the SophCon...Futbolmetrix
    `- Re: All you ever wanted to know about the SophCon...Futbolmetrix

1
All you ever wanted to know about the SophCon...

<ce4c6016-0243-4eb7-91cc-159c5bdf9fc8n@googlegroups.com>

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Subject: All you ever wanted to know about the SophCon...
From: daniele....@gmail.com (Futbolmetrix)
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 by: Futbolmetrix - Fri, 28 Jul 2023 21:14 UTC

So, I was asked to do a presentation on the SophCon. Here are the slides, which I think some of you may find interesting:

https://www.dropbox.com/scl/fi/b592687kj4xkdoko5sim0/ProbabilisticPredictionContests_ROSES_July2023.pdf?rlkey=lpl0evruvaw3pvebe85irc39z&raw=1

You may be curious in particular about the Table on page 33 (slide 40 out of 52). ;-)

Re: All you ever wanted to know about the SophCon...

<ua3b5n$2l75b$1@dont-email.me>

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From: MHnos...@ucalgary.ca (MH)
Newsgroups: rec.sport.soccer
Subject: Re: All you ever wanted to know about the SophCon...
Date: Sat, 29 Jul 2023 11:27:51 -0400
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 by: MH - Sat, 29 Jul 2023 15:27 UTC

On 2023-07-28 15:14, Futbolmetrix wrote:
> So, I was asked to do a presentation on the SophCon. Here are the slides, which I think some of you may find interesting:
>
> https://www.dropbox.com/scl/fi/b592687kj4xkdoko5sim0/ProbabilisticPredictionContests_ROSES_July2023.pdf?rlkey=lpl0evruvaw3pvebe85irc39z&raw=1
>
> You may be curious in particular about the Table on page 33 (slide 40 out of 52). ;-)
>
>
>
>
>
Are you allowed to disclose the identity of the human "experts" ?

Re: All you ever wanted to know about the SophCon...

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Subject: Re: All you ever wanted to know about the SophCon...
From: daniele....@gmail.com (Futbolmetrix)
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 by: Futbolmetrix - Sat, 29 Jul 2023 19:12 UTC

On Saturday, July 29, 2023 at 11:27:55 AM UTC-4, MH wrote:
> On 2023-07-28 15:14, Futbolmetrix wrote:
> > So, I was asked to do a presentation on the SophCon. Here are the slides, which I think some of you may find interesting:
> >
> > https://www.dropbox.com/scl/fi/b592687kj4xkdoko5sim0/ProbabilisticPredictionContests_ROSES_July2023.pdf?rlkey=lpl0evruvaw3pvebe85irc39z&raw=1
> >
> > You may be curious in particular about the Table on page 33 (slide 40 out of 52). ;-)
> >
> >
> >
> >
> >
> Are you allowed to disclose the identity of the human "experts" ?

If the experts agree to have their name disclosed, sure!

Expert 1, very pissed at having the best record of all the humans on a variety of metrics,
and not a single entry in the Hall if Sophistication to show for it...

Re: All you ever wanted to know about the SophCon...

<ua3ouo$2mjml$1@dont-email.me>

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From: MHnos...@ucalgary.ca (MH)
Newsgroups: rec.sport.soccer
Subject: Re: All you ever wanted to know about the SophCon...
Date: Sat, 29 Jul 2023 15:23:04 -0400
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 by: MH - Sat, 29 Jul 2023 19:23 UTC

On 2023-07-29 13:12, Futbolmetrix wrote:
> On Saturday, July 29, 2023 at 11:27:55 AM UTC-4, MH wrote:
>> On 2023-07-28 15:14, Futbolmetrix wrote:
>>> So, I was asked to do a presentation on the SophCon. Here are the slides, which I think some of you may find interesting:
>>>
>>> https://www.dropbox.com/scl/fi/b592687kj4xkdoko5sim0/ProbabilisticPredictionContests_ROSES_July2023.pdf?rlkey=lpl0evruvaw3pvebe85irc39z&raw=1
>>>
>>> You may be curious in particular about the Table on page 33 (slide 40 out of 52). ;-)
>>>
>>>
>>>
>>>
>>>
>> Are you allowed to disclose the identity of the human "experts" ?
>
> If the experts agree to have their name disclosed, sure!

I agree, what harm can it do ?

>
> Expert 1, very pissed at having the best record of all the humans on a variety of metrics,
> and not a single entry in the Hall if Sophistication to show for it...

Re: All you ever wanted to know about the SophCon...

<c2ba9e2f-9718-474f-a266-4ef8b4e886c6n@googlegroups.com>

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Subject: Re: All you ever wanted to know about the SophCon...
From: daniele....@gmail.com (Futbolmetrix)
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 by: Futbolmetrix - Mon, 31 Jul 2023 11:30 UTC

On Saturday, July 29, 2023 at 3:23:07 PM UTC-4, MH wrote:

> > If the experts agree to have their name disclosed, sure!

I didn't want to reveal your names without your consent.

This is the un-anonymized table:

Winner Top 3 Avg. Perce~k vs Agnostic vs CC

FiveThirty~t 4 14 68.285 0.106 -0.003
Collective~s 0 7 67.016 0.107 0.000
TransferMa~t 4 9 62.586 0.099 -0.009
ClubElo 3 7 61.619 0.105 -0.003
Jesper 3 6 55.736 0.067 -0.052
Futbolmetrix 0 6 51.871 0.092 -0.015
Werner 1 7 49.000 0.088 -0.020
MH 3 8 45.958 0.075 -0.040
Anders 1 1 21.229 0.037 -0.098
Agnostic 0 1 12.225 -0.000 -0.132

Re: All you ever wanted to know about the SophCon...

<425572b6-6419-49de-84df-10d1ebbc594an@googlegroups.com>

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Subject: Re: All you ever wanted to know about the SophCon...
From: wpich...@gmail.com (Werner Pichler)
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 by: Werner Pichler - Mon, 31 Jul 2023 11:47 UTC

On Monday, July 31, 2023 at 1:30:49 PM UTC+2, Futbolmetrix wrote:
> On Saturday, July 29, 2023 at 3:23:07 PM UTC-4, MH wrote:
>
> > > If the experts agree to have their name disclosed, sure!
> I didn't want to reveal your names without your consent.
>
> This is the un-anonymized table:
>
> Winner Top 3 Avg. Perce~k vs Agnostic vs CC
>
> FiveThirty~t 4 14 68.285 0.106 -0.003
> Collective~s 0 7 67.016 0.107 0.000
> TransferMa~t 4 9 62.586 0.099 -0.009
> ClubElo 3 7 61.619 0.105 -0.003
> Jesper 3 6 55.736 0.067 -0.052
> Futbolmetrix 0 6 51.871 0.092 -0.015
> Werner 1 7 49.000 0.088 -0.020
> MH 3 8 45.958 0.075 -0.040
> Anders 1 1 21.229 0.037 -0.098
> Agnostic 0 1 12.225 -0.000 -0.132

I've always wanted to be Expert 3!

I'm pretty sure Agnostic doesn't care either way.

Ciao,
Werner

Re: All you ever wanted to know about the SophCon...

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Subject: Re: All you ever wanted to know about the SophCon...
From: daniele....@gmail.com (Futbolmetrix)
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 by: Futbolmetrix - Mon, 31 Jul 2023 12:03 UTC

On Monday, July 31, 2023 at 7:30:49 AM UTC-4, Futbolmetrix wrote:
> On Saturday, July 29, 2023 at 3:23:07 PM UTC-4, MH wrote:
>
> > > If the experts agree to have their name disclosed, sure!
> I didn't want to reveal your names without your consent.
>
> This is the un-anonymized table:
>
> Winner Top 3 Avg. Perce~k vs Agnostic vs CC
>
> FiveThirty~t 4 14 68.285 0.106 -0.003
> Collective~s 0 7 67.016 0.107 0.000
> TransferMa~t 4 9 62.586 0.099 -0.009
> ClubElo 3 7 61.619 0.105 -0.003
> Jesper 3 6 55.736 0.067 -0.052
> Futbolmetrix 0 6 51.871 0.092 -0.015
> Werner 1 7 49.000 0.088 -0.020
> MH 3 8 45.958 0.075 -0.040
> Anders 1 1 21.229 0.037 -0.098
> Agnostic 0 1 12.225 -0.000 -0.132

Reorganizing to make it easier to read in non fixed-width font

Wins Top3 AvgPercentileRank vsAgnostic vsCC
4 14 68.285 0.106 -0.003 FiveThirtyEight
0 7 67.016 0.107 0.000 CollectiveConsciousness
4 9 62.586 0.099 -0.009 TransferMa~t
3 7 61.619 0.105 -0.003 ClubElo
3 6 55.736 0.067 -0.052 Jesper
0 6 51.871 0.092 -0.015 Futbolmetrix
1 7 49.000 0.088 -0.020 Werner
3 8 45.958 0.075 -0.040 MH
1 1 21.229 0.037 -0.098 Anders
0 1 12.225 -0.000 -0.132 Agnostic

Re: All you ever wanted to know about the SophCon...

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Subject: Re: All you ever wanted to know about the SophCon...
From: wpich...@gmail.com (Werner Pichler)
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 by: Werner Pichler - Thu, 3 Aug 2023 10:42 UTC

On Monday, July 31, 2023 at 1:47:13 PM UTC+2, Werner Pichler wrote:
> On Monday, July 31, 2023 at 1:30:49 PM UTC+2, Futbolmetrix wrote:
> > On Saturday, July 29, 2023 at 3:23:07 PM UTC-4, MH wrote:
> >
> > > > If the experts agree to have their name disclosed, sure!
> > I didn't want to reveal your names without your consent.
> >
> > This is the un-anonymized table:
> >
> > Winner Top 3 Avg. Perce~k vs Agnostic vs CC
> >
> > FiveThirty~t 4 14 68.285 0.106 -0.003
> > Collective~s 0 7 67.016 0.107 0.000
> > TransferMa~t 4 9 62.586 0.099 -0.009
> > ClubElo 3 7 61.619 0.105 -0.003
> > Jesper 3 6 55.736 0.067 -0.052
> > Futbolmetrix 0 6 51.871 0.092 -0.015
> > Werner 1 7 49.000 0.088 -0.020
> > MH 3 8 45.958 0.075 -0.040
> > Anders 1 1 21.229 0.037 -0.098
> > Agnostic 0 1 12.225 -0.000 -0.132
>
> I've always wanted to be Expert 3!

I really hope my WWC predictions haven't yet entered into this.

Ciao,
Werner

Re: All you ever wanted to know about the SophCon...

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Subject: Re: All you ever wanted to know about the SophCon...
From: daniele....@gmail.com (Futbolmetrix)
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 by: Futbolmetrix - Thu, 3 Aug 2023 12:18 UTC

On Thursday, August 3, 2023 at 6:42:11 AM UTC-4, Werner Pichler wrote:

> I really hope my WWC predictions haven't yet entered into this.

It was only based on the European Cups, where things are more directly comparable.
Anyway, just about everybody had a bad score in WWC SophCon

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