https://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id/32706688/how-good-your-nfl-coach-fourth-calls-rank-all-32

(Intro and Chargers' section below, full capsules for all coaches at link)

NFL Nation
ESPN

The NFL is about to set a record for most fourth-down attempts in a season.

Again.

Coaches are on pace to dial up 838 fourth-down tries in 2021, up from 780 the year prior. (Even if this were a 16-game season, they'd be on track for a 788 attempts.) It will mark the fourth consecutive year a new high has been established.

Not only are coaches going for it more on fourth down, they're getting better at making those calls that give them the best chance to win. According to ESPN Stats & Information research, the number of fourth-down errors has plummeted each of the past four seasons, reaching a new low of 951 leaguewide in 2020 and on pace for even fewer this season.

The increased application of analytics has changed the game on fourth down. Coaches across the league are being guided by game-management specialists who communicate the probabilities of an upcoming fourth-down try in real time.

NFL Fourth-Down Trends
YEAR ATT 4TH-DOWN ERRORS
2012 481 1,246
2013 527 1,250
2014 490 1,192
2015 526 1,171
2016 540 1,121
2017 555 1,150
2018 611 1,028
2019 687 1,003
2020 780 951
2021 838* 924*
* On pace
The most famous example came in Super Bowl LII between the Philadelphia Eagles and New England Patriots. Before Eagles coach Doug Pederson had his sideline conversation with quarterback Nick Foles, leading to the decision to run the "Philly Special" late in the first half, Pederson spoke with Ryan Paganetti, the Dartmouth grad responsible for feeding Pederson math-based recommendations when it came to, among other things, going for it on fourth down.

Anticipating such a situation, Paganetti clicked into Pederson's headset prior to the Eagles' third-and-goal play against the Patriots and told him: If we get to fourth down, the light is green.

And the rest is history.

League sources estimate 28 of 32 head coaches have game-management specialists, with about 10 of those being members of the team's analytics department. The trend of teams being more aggressive on fourth down is expected to continue for the foreseeable future. The practice is becoming more widely accepted and is likely to be commonplace before long.

How we rank: To come up with our coaches ranking, we looked at all fourth-down calls made under the current head coach with his current team. (For example, for Mike McCarthy, we would only include fourth-down calls made with the Cowboys, not the Packers.) The timeframe was limited to 2017-21, when analytics were firmly established across the league. We relied on three metrics from the ESPN Analytics team:

Total win probability sacrificed through fourth-down errors

Difference in expected fourth-down conversion rates vs. actual rates

Non-obvious fourth-down error rate

These metrics are shown as per-season averages and measure whether the coach's decision agreed with our analytics model (accounting for two-thirds of the final ranking) as well as success in running fourth-down plays (one-third). All 32 coaches were sorted on those metrics and then those rankings were used to create the final order.

22. Brandon Staley, Los Angeles Chargers
Years covered: 2021
Win probability sacrificed on fourth-down errors: 61.9% (Rank: 32)*
Difference in expected vs. actual fourth-down conversions: 5.2% (Rank: 3)
Non-obvious fourth-down error rate: 27.3% (Rank: 23)

Most notable fourth-down call: The Chargers and Eagles were tied at 24, and Staley faced fourth-and-1 at the Eagles' 28. He sent the offense out to pick up the first, but the Chargers let the clock run down and called timeout.. Staley again sent the offense out; teams can't call consecutive timeouts, so it was clear the team was going for it. Justin Herbert ran the ball and got enough for the first down. Four plays later, Dustin Hopkins made the kick with :02 left to win the game. The call established Staley as a go-getter on fourth down and put the Chargers back on track in the AFC West. -- Shelley Smith

* Staley's league-worst WP sacrificed ranking can mostly be chalked up to being too aggressive for our model in going for it as opposed to attempting field goals against the Chiefs in Week 3. Without those plays, he would rank higher on this list.

phlash74 wrote:
> https://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id/32706688/how-good-your-nfl-coach-fourth-calls-rank-all-32
>
> (Intro and Chargers' section below, full capsules for all coaches at link)
>
> NFL Nation
> ESPN
>

>
> 22. Brandon Staley, Los Angeles Chargers
> Years covered: 2021
> Win probability sacrificed on fourth-down errors: 61.9% (Rank: 32)*
> Difference in expected vs. actual fourth-down conversions: 5.2% (Rank: 3)
> Non-obvious fourth-down error rate: 27.3% (Rank: 23)
>
> Most notable fourth-down call: The Chargers and Eagles were tied at 24, and Staley faced fourth-and-1 at the Eagles' 28. He sent the offense out to pick up the first, but the Chargers let the clock run down and called timeout. Staley again sent the offense out; teams can't call consecutive timeouts, so it was clear the team was going for it. Justin Herbert ran the ball and got enough for the first down. Four plays later, Dustin Hopkins made the kick with :02 left to win the game. The call established Staley as a go-getter on fourth down and put the Chargers back on track in the AFC West. -- Shelley Smith
>
> * Staley's league-worst WP sacrificed ranking can mostly be chalked up to being too aggressive for our model in going for it as opposed to attempting field goals against the Chiefs in Week 3. Without those plays, he would rank higher on this list.
>

I know they have an explanation, but the first and third numbers don't
make sense given what I've seen. Staley doesn't seem to make many
errors, but this says he does.

--Robin

Robin Miller <robin.miller@invalid.invalid> writes:

> phlash74 wrote:
>> https://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id/32706688/how-good-your-nfl-coach-fourth-calls-rank-all-32
>>
>> (Intro and Chargers' section below, full capsules for all coaches at link)
>>
>> NFL Nation
>> ESPN
>>
>
>>
>> 22. Brandon Staley, Los Angeles Chargers
>> Years covered: 2021
>> Win probability sacrificed on fourth-down errors: 61.9% (Rank: 32)*
>> Difference in expected vs. actual fourth-down conversions: 5.2% (Rank: 3)
>> Non-obvious fourth-down error rate: 27.3% (Rank: 23)
>>
>> Most notable fourth-down call: The Chargers and Eagles were tied at
>> 24, and Staley faced fourth-and-1 at the Eagles' 28. He sent the
>> offense out to pick up the first, but the Chargers let the clock run
>> down and called timeout. Staley again sent the offense out; teams
>> can't call consecutive timeouts, so it was clear the team was going
>> for it. Justin Herbert ran the ball and got enough for the first
>> down. Four plays later, Dustin Hopkins made the kick with :02 left
>> to win the game. The call established Staley as a go-getter on
>> fourth down and put the Chargers back on track in the AFC West. --
>> Shelley Smith
>>
>> * Staley's league-worst WP sacrificed ranking can mostly be chalked
>> up to being too aggressive for our model in going for it as opposed
>> to attempting field goals against the Chiefs in Week 3. Without
>> those plays, he would rank higher on this list.
>>
>
>
> I know they have an explanation, but the first and third numbers don't
> make sense given what I've seen. Staley doesn't seem to make many
> errors, but this says he does.
>
> --Robin

Your brain will turn to mush if you try to find meaning in ESPN's analytics.

In particular, I believe those WP statistics *do not* take into account
how good you or your opponent are. If you go for it on 4th down, and an
average team would not have made it whatever percentage of the time
makes their model happy, you have made a coaching mistake even if you
convert the 4th down.

Analytics based on league averages are idiotic.

An incredibly important aspect of going on 4th down is how likely the
opposing team is to score. If hypothetically they were 100% likely to
score, you should go for it on 4th and long even if you suck.

Eddie Grove wrote:
> Robin Miller <robin.miller@invalid.invalid> writes:
>
>> phlash74 wrote:
>>> https://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id/32706688/how-good-your-nfl-coach-fourth-calls-rank-all-32
>>>
>>> (Intro and Chargers' section below, full capsules for all coaches at link)
>>>
>>> NFL Nation
>>> ESPN
>>>
>>
>>>
>>> 22. Brandon Staley, Los Angeles Chargers
>>> Years covered: 2021
>>> Win probability sacrificed on fourth-down errors: 61.9% (Rank: 32)*
>>> Difference in expected vs. actual fourth-down conversions: 5.2% (Rank: 3)
>>> Non-obvious fourth-down error rate: 27.3% (Rank: 23)
>>>
>>> Most notable fourth-down call: The Chargers and Eagles were tied at
>>> 24, and Staley faced fourth-and-1 at the Eagles' 28. He sent the
>>> offense out to pick up the first, but the Chargers let the clock run
>>> down and called timeout. Staley again sent the offense out; teams
>>> can't call consecutive timeouts, so it was clear the team was going
>>> for it. Justin Herbert ran the ball and got enough for the first
>>> down. Four plays later, Dustin Hopkins made the kick with :02 left
>>> to win the game. The call established Staley as a go-getter on
>>> fourth down and put the Chargers back on track in the AFC West. --
>>> Shelley Smith
>>>
>>> * Staley's league-worst WP sacrificed ranking can mostly be chalked
>>> up to being too aggressive for our model in going for it as opposed
>>> to attempting field goals against the Chiefs in Week 3. Without
>>> those plays, he would rank higher on this list.
>>>
>>
>>
>> I know they have an explanation, but the first and third numbers don't
>> make sense given what I've seen. Staley doesn't seem to make many
>> errors, but this says he does.
>>
>> --Robin
>
> Your brain will turn to mush if you try to find meaning in ESPN's analytics.
>
> In particular, I believe those WP statistics *do not* take into account
> how good you or your opponent are. If you go for it on 4th down, and an
> average team would not have made it whatever percentage of the time
> makes their model happy, you have made a coaching mistake even if you
> convert the 4th down.
>
> Analytics based on league averages are idiotic.
>
> An incredibly important aspect of going on 4th down is how likely the
> opposing team is to score. If hypothetically they were 100% likely to
> score, you should go for it on 4th and long even if you suck.
>

Right, like being at the end of a game against the Chiefs, at least
prior to this season, when it was almost guaranteed they would score if
you didn't.

--Robin