https://theathletic.com/3070256/2022/01/14/chargers-postmortem-report-what-went-right-and-what-went-wrong-in-2021/

Chargers postmortem report: What went right — hello, Justin Herbert —
and what went wrong in 2021?

By Daniel Popper
3h ago

The Chargers missed the playoffs despite Justin Herbert playing like one
of the best quarterbacks in the NFL, and that hard-to-grasp fact leaves
us with one overarching question.

How?

The answer is layered.

In this postmortem report, addressing the good and bad from this season,
we will dig through those layers.

All statistics courtesy of TruMedia unless otherwise noted.

What went right

Brandon Staley’s first season as Chargers head coach was not a failure.
Far from it. Disappointing? Sure. But it was disappointing primarily
because the Chargers were playing meaningful games in December and
January — and playing meaningful snaps right up until the final play of
the regular season. If you are going to criticize Staley for his
decisions and his defense — and these are fair criticisms — then you
must also give him credit for leading a significant organizational
turnaround.

The Chargers were 3-8 when December started last season. They were 4-7
when December started in 2019. They were 6-5 on Dec. 1 this season and
won two games to start the month to put themselves firmly in the playoff
picture. The season did not end how the Chargers hoped, but getting to
that point late in the season was unquestionably a step forward.

The priority for Staley in his first year was elevating and developing
Herbert. Regression was not an option. And the Chargers’ offseason
strategy reflected that.

Staley arrived at the Chargers’ facility in Orange County in late
January, and from Day 1, he was determined to protect his quarterback.
As Staley put it, he wanted to be a “line of scrimmage team.” The
Chargers signed three offensive line starters in free agency — center
Corey Linsley, left guard Matt Feiler and right guard Oday Aboushi. They
used the No. 13 pick to select offensive tackle Rashawn Slater, who slid
in as the immediate starter at left tackle.

The Chargers used a majority of their other offseason capital to add to
their offense. They took wide receiver Joshua Palmer and tight end Tre’
McKitty with their two third-round picks. They signed tight end Jared
Cook in free agency. Staley, along with general manager Tom Telesco,
very clearly focused on creating the best possible structure around
Herbert. They did little to bolster their defensive personnel. The moves
effectively amounted to the bare minimum. They needed a starting corner,
so they drafted Asante Samuel Jr. in the second round. They needed a
third edge rusher, so they signed Kyler Fackrell to a one-year deal.
They needed a fourth defensive lineman, so they signed Christian
Covington to a one-year deal. But the resources were almost entirely
devoted to the offense — really, to Herbert.

And it worked.

Led by play caller Joe Lombardi, the Chargers had an elite offense this
season by any measure.

They finished fourth in offensive EPA/play, offensive DVOA (Football
Outsiders’ efficiency metric), offensive success rate, points scored and
red zone efficiency. They led the league in touchdowns per drive and
were second in points per drive. They had the fifth-lowest three-and-out
percentage in the league. They were second in down set conversion rate,
which is the percentage of first downs converted into a new set of
downs. Austin Ekeler scored 20 touchdowns. Mike Williams and Keenan
Allen each went for more than 1,000 receiving yards.

The Chargers finished fourth in the league in pressure rate allowed.
Slater was a revelation at left tackle. Linsley played up to his
big-money contract. Feiler was steady. The right side was leaky at
times, and those pass protection issues cost the Chargers wins. Look no
further than Storm Norton’s performance in the finale against the
Raiders, or against the Cowboys, or against the Patriots. They signed
Michael Schofield off the street in September, and he was expectedly up
and down after replacing Aboushi, who tore his ACL in Week 5. But the
line did enough to protect Herbert, who mitigated some weaknesses with
his pocket awareness, escapability and quick processing.

Staley vowed to create “a system for Justin,” and he succeeded. Herbert
was better in 2021 than he was as a rookie. He threw for over 5,000
yards. He set a franchise record for touchdown passes in 16 games. His
decision making noticeably improved as the season progressed after a few
shaky performances in the middle of the season. He finished fourth in
EPA/dropback and third in QBR. A lot was made of Herbert’s average depth
of target, and he finished 21st in that statistic with an average air
yards per attempt of 7.55. But that did not detract from how explosive
the Chargers’ passing attack was. They had the fifth-most explosive
completions in the league.

LAC - QB
Justin
Herbert

2021 stats

COMP
443
2nd
ATT
672
2nd
YDS
5014
2nd
TDS
38
3rd
YPA
7.5
8th
CMP%
65.9%
18th

“We had to get that right,” Staley said of Herbert’s development, “and I
know that we got that right.”

The Chargers were slightly reliant on Herbert’s playmaking on third and
fourth downs. They finished 11th in EPA/play on early downs compared to
second on third and fourth downs. Herbert led all quarterbacks in
EPA/dropback on third and fourth downs. But those numbers are skewed by
some early-down struggles in the beginning stages of the season. The
Chargers ranked 24th in early-down EPA/play in the first six weeks of
the season. From Week 8 on, after the bye, the Chargers ranked second in
EPA/play on early downs.

Their rushing attack had good and bad moments. Slater, Feiler and
Linsley created most of the production on the ground. On runs to the
left guard, left tackle and off left tackle, the Chargers averaged 4.91
yards per carry, according to Sharp Football Stats. On all other runs,
the Chargers averaged 3.61 yards per carry. They finished 15th in
EPA/rush on designed runs. The Chargers had enough of a threat in the
run game, primarily because of the left side of their line, to keep
defenses honest and run the ball effectively when the moment called for
it, like in their four-minute offense.

Overall, the offense was not the problem. Lombardi was not the problem.
This unit gave the Chargers a chance to compete pretty much every week.

Staley also created competitive advantages through his decision making,
particularly on fourth downs. He was aggressive not only because he
leaned into analytics, but also because he believed — rightfully so — in
his prodigious quarterback. Fourth-down failures down the stretch of
this season, most notably against the Chiefs in Week 15 and against the
Raiders in the finale, have created some recency bias. But on aggregate,
the Chargers undoubtedly benefited from the aggressive approach. They
won against the Chiefs in Week 3 in part due to decisions to go for it
on fourth down. And in Week 4 against the Raiders. And in Week 5 against
the Browns. And in Week 9 against the Eagles. And in Week 13 against the
Bengals.

Quite frankly, the Chargers would not have been in the playoff picture
if Staley did not take this approach to fourth-down decision making.

Using Ben Baldwin’s win probability model, we can see just how much
sounder Staley’s process was compared to Anthony Lynn. In 2020, in
situations in which the Chargers could gain 2 or more percentage points
of win probability by going for it, Lynn went for it roughly 50 percent
of the time. In those same situations in 2020, Staley went for it nearly
80 percent of the time.

The Chargers led the league in EPA on fourth downs this season.

Finally, the Chargers were able to stay mostly healthy. They finished in
the bottom five in the league in games lost due to injury, according to
Man Games Lost. And this is not an accident. Sure, some luck was
involved. But Staley made player health a priority as soon as he
arrived, and he instituted policies and mechanisms that kept the
Chargers healthier than they have been in recent seasons.

“There’s always a luck factor, but he’s definitely made an emphasis of
it,” Ekeler told me in the week leading up to the season finale. “That’s
him listening to the team. Look, we’ve had a lot of injuries that have
affected our past seasons, for as long as I’ve been here. So, I think
he’s kind of caught up to the times as far as taking modern medicine and
modern practices, all the activation stuff we do. Literally for 30
minutes before every practice, we do rollouts and we do band work and we
do all this stuff that I think has played a huge part to our success on
the field because we’re healthy, we’re stretched, everything is good to
go. The game keeps getting faster. The people keep getting bigger,
people keep getting stronger, so we need to actually update our old
methods of training and protecting ourselves.

“In any staff that I’ve been involved in, I’ve never had as much
activation, stretching, band work. I’ve never had as much as what we’re
required to do right now. I’ve been playing football a long time, and
this is the most I’ve ever rolled out, stretched and got ready to practice.”

On Friday, January 14, 2022 at 9:49:33 AM UTC-8, Robin Miller wrote:
> https://theathletic.com/3070256/2022/01/14/chargers-postmortem-report-what-went-right-and-what-went-wrong-in-2021/
>
>
> Chargers postmortem report: What went right — hello, Justin Herbert —
> and what went wrong in 2021?
>
>
> By Daniel Popper
> 3h ago
>
>
> Herbert and the Chargers offense were playoff-worthy this season.
>
> The defense and special teams were not.
>
> And that is really what 2021 boils down to for this team.

Excellent analysis, thanks for sharing Robin. A couple of early mock drafts I've seen have the Chargers taking Outland Trophy-winning DT Jordan Davis out of Georgia. It might be unlikely for him to last until the 17th pick but that is definitely the biggest area of need right now, hopefully the right side of the offensive line can be pieced back together - I don't think they can count on Bulaga to stay healthy and Aboushi's contract is up.

Michael

phlash74 wrote:
> On Friday, January 14, 2022 at 9:49:33 AM UTC-8, Robin Miller wrote:
>> https://theathletic.com/3070256/2022/01/14/chargers-postmortem-report-what-went-right-and-what-went-wrong-in-2021/
>>
>>
>> Chargers postmortem report: What went right — hello, Justin Herbert —
>> and what went wrong in 2021?
>>
>>
>> By Daniel Popper
>> 3h ago
>>
>>
>> Herbert and the Chargers offense were playoff-worthy this season.
>>
>> The defense and special teams were not.
>>
>> And that is really what 2021 boils down to for this team.
>
> Excellent analysis, thanks for sharing Robin. A couple of early mock drafts I've seen have the Chargers taking Outland Trophy-winning DT Jordan Davis out of Georgia. It might be unlikely for him to last until the 17th pick but that is definitely the biggest area of need right now, hopefully the right side of the offensive line can be pieced back together - I don't think they can count on Bulaga to stay healthy and Aboushi's contract is up.
>
> Michael
>

Aboushi was having an excellent season before the injury. He turns 31 on
June 5 but I would re-sign him for another year. Then maybe a free agent
for RT.

Let Pipkins and Norton compete next season for the backup swing tackle
position.

On offense, they only have a few needs: RG, RT, TE (because Cook is a
free agent) and ideally another RB. And replace Williams if they don't
re-sign him, which I really hope they do. He's a gamer, and a winning
team needs those kind of players.

Edit: Now I'm not sure on Aboushi. He was very good when he played this
season, but in eight seasons he has only played more than 8 games twice:

https://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/A/AbouOd00.htm

Not sure if this was because of injury or not being a starter.

--Robin

--Robin

On Friday, January 14, 2022 at 12:23:29 PM UTC-8, Robin Miller wrote:
> phlash74 wrote:
> > On Friday, January 14, 2022 at 9:49:33 AM UTC-8, Robin Miller wrote:
> >> https://theathletic.com/3070256/2022/01/14/chargers-postmortem-report-what-went-right-and-what-went-wrong-in-2021/
> >>
> >>
> >> Chargers postmortem report: What went right — hello, Justin Herbert —
> >> and what went wrong in 2021?
> >>
> >>
> >> By Daniel Popper
> >> 3h ago
> >>
> >>
> >> Herbert and the Chargers offense were playoff-worthy this season.
> >>
> >> The defense and special teams were not.
> >>
> >> And that is really what 2021 boils down to for this team.
> >
> > Excellent analysis, thanks for sharing Robin. A couple of early mock drafts I've seen have the Chargers taking Outland Trophy-winning DT Jordan Davis out of Georgia. It might be unlikely for him to last until the 17th pick but that is definitely the biggest area of need right now, hopefully the right side of the offensive line can be pieced back together - I don't think they can count on Bulaga to stay healthy and Aboushi's contract is up.
> >
> > Michael
> >
> Aboushi was having an excellent season before the injury. He turns 31 on
> June 5 but I would re-sign him for another year. Then maybe a free agent
> for RT.
>
> Let Pipkins and Norton compete next season for the backup swing tackle
> position.
>
> On offense, they only have a few needs: RG, RT, TE (because Cook is a
> free agent) and ideally another RB. And replace Williams if they don't
> re-sign him, which I really hope they do. He's a gamer, and a winning
> team needs those kind of players.
>
> Edit: Now I'm not sure on Aboushi. He was very good when he played this
> season, but in eight seasons he has only played more than 8 games twice:
>
> https://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/A/AbouOd00.htm
>
> Not sure if this was because of injury or not being a starter.
>
> --Robin
>
>
> --Robin

Looks like mostly the latter, he did have a shoulder injury in 2017 that ended his season in Seattle (where he had started 8 games) but he's started just 47 of 70 games in his NFL career and has bounced around from team to team quite a bit: https://www.cbssports.com/nfl/players/1696995/oday-aboushi/

Lions' Oday Aboushi: Re-signs with Detroit
Rotowire MAR 25, 2020
Aboushi agreed to a one-year contract with the Lions on Tuesday, Justin Rogers of The Detroit News reports.

Aboushi will return to the Motor City for a second straight season after making seven appearances (two starts) for the Lions in 2019. He'll likely fill a depth role at guard.

Cardinals' Oday Aboushi: Agrees to terms with Detroit
Rotowire MAR 13, 2019
Aboushi has a one-year, $2 million deal with the Lions in place, Mike Garafolo of NFL Network reports.

Aboushi will pack up the suitcase again as he heads to his fifth team in seven seasons. He'll at least provide depth on the Lions' offensive front after they released T.J. Lang, but it isn't clear if he has a shot at a starting role.

Cardinals' Oday Aboushi: Inks deal with Arizona
Rotowire OCT 23, 2018
Aboushi signed with the Cardinals on Tuesday.

Arizona, looking to beef up their depleted offensive line, opted to bring in Aboushi and give the six-year vet a shot at sticking around in Phoenix. Whether Aboushi will work his way into the starting rotation is unknown, but there is room for him to make an impression considering how banged up Arizona's offensive line currently is.

Raiders' Oday Aboushi: Signs with Raiders
Rotowire JUL 28, 2018
Aboushi put pen to paper Saturday to complete a deal with the Raiders, Michael Gehlken of the Las Vegas Review-Journal reports.

Aboushi finished the 2017 campaign on injured reserve due to a shoulder injury, but his signing with the Raiders suggests he's passed a physical and is ready to contribute for his new club. The 27-year-old lineman is expected to provide depth for the Raiders along the line this season after making eight starts for Seattle in 2017.

Seahawks' Oday Aboushi: Officially hits IR
Rotowire DEC 13, 2017
Aboushi (shoulder) was placed on injured reserve Wednesday.

Seahawks head coach Pete Carroll acknowledged several days earlier that Aboushi's season was over, but the team waited until after Sunday's loss to the Jaguars to make it official. With Aboushi shut down, Ethan Pocic and Luke Joeckel are expected to serve as Seattle's starting guards for its final three regular-season contests and for the duration of the team's potential postseason run.

Michael

phlash74 wrote:
> On Friday, January 14, 2022 at 12:23:29 PM UTC-8, Robin Miller wrote:
>> phlash74 wrote:
>>> On Friday, January 14, 2022 at 9:49:33 AM UTC-8, Robin Miller wrote:
>>>> https://theathletic.com/3070256/2022/01/14/chargers-postmortem-report-what-went-right-and-what-went-wrong-in-2021/
>>>>
>>>>
>>>> Chargers postmortem report: What went right — hello, Justin Herbert —
>>>> and what went wrong in 2021?
>>>>
>>>>
>>>> By Daniel Popper
>>>> 3h ago
>>>>
>>>>
>>>> Herbert and the Chargers offense were playoff-worthy this season.
>>>>
>>>> The defense and special teams were not.
>>>>
>>>> And that is really what 2021 boils down to for this team.
>>>
>>> Excellent analysis, thanks for sharing Robin. A couple of early mock drafts I've seen have the Chargers taking Outland Trophy-winning DT Jordan Davis out of Georgia. It might be unlikely for him to last until the 17th pick but that is definitely the biggest area of need right now, hopefully the right side of the offensive line can be pieced back together - I don't think they can count on Bulaga to stay healthy and Aboushi's contract is up.
>>>
>>> Michael
>>>
>> Aboushi was having an excellent season before the injury. He turns 31 on
>> June 5 but I would re-sign him for another year. Then maybe a free agent
>> for RT.
>>
>> Let Pipkins and Norton compete next season for the backup swing tackle
>> position.
>>
>> On offense, they only have a few needs: RG, RT, TE (because Cook is a
>> free agent) and ideally another RB. And replace Williams if they don't
>> re-sign him, which I really hope they do. He's a gamer, and a winning
>> team needs those kind of players.
>>
>> Edit: Now I'm not sure on Aboushi. He was very good when he played this
>> season, but in eight seasons he has only played more than 8 games twice:
>>
>> https://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/A/AbouOd00.htm
>>
>> Not sure if this was because of injury or not being a starter.
>>
>> --Robin
>>
>>
>> --Robin
>
> Looks like mostly the latter, he did have a shoulder injury in 2017 that ended his season in Seattle (where he had started 8 games) but he's started just 47 of 70 games in his NFL career and has bounced around from team to team quite a bit: https://www.cbssports.com/nfl/players/1696995/oday-aboushi/
>
> Lions' Oday Aboushi: Re-signs with Detroit
> Rotowire MAR 25, 2020
> Aboushi agreed to a one-year contract with the Lions on Tuesday, Justin Rogers of The Detroit News reports.
>
> Aboushi will return to the Motor City for a second straight season after making seven appearances (two starts) for the Lions in 2019. He'll likely fill a depth role at guard.
>
> Cardinals' Oday Aboushi: Agrees to terms with Detroit
> Rotowire MAR 13, 2019
> Aboushi has a one-year, $2 million deal with the Lions in place, Mike Garafolo of NFL Network reports.
>
> Aboushi will pack up the suitcase again as he heads to his fifth team in seven seasons. He'll at least provide depth on the Lions' offensive front after they released T.J. Lang, but it isn't clear if he has a shot at a starting role.
>
> Cardinals' Oday Aboushi: Inks deal with Arizona
> Rotowire OCT 23, 2018
> Aboushi signed with the Cardinals on Tuesday.
>
> Arizona, looking to beef up their depleted offensive line, opted to bring in Aboushi and give the six-year vet a shot at sticking around in Phoenix. Whether Aboushi will work his way into the starting rotation is unknown, but there is room for him to make an impression considering how banged up Arizona's offensive line currently is.
>
> Raiders' Oday Aboushi: Signs with Raiders
> Rotowire JUL 28, 2018
> Aboushi put pen to paper Saturday to complete a deal with the Raiders, Michael Gehlken of the Las Vegas Review-Journal reports.
>
> Aboushi finished the 2017 campaign on injured reserve due to a shoulder injury, but his signing with the Raiders suggests he's passed a physical and is ready to contribute for his new club. The 27-year-old lineman is expected to provide depth for the Raiders along the line this season after making eight starts for Seattle in 2017.
>
> Seahawks' Oday Aboushi: Officially hits IR
> Rotowire DEC 13, 2017
> Aboushi (shoulder) was placed on injured reserve Wednesday.
>
> Seahawks head coach Pete Carroll acknowledged several days earlier that Aboushi's season was over, but the team waited until after Sunday's loss to the Jaguars to make it official. With Aboushi shut down, Ethan Pocic and Luke Joeckel are expected to serve as Seattle's starting guards for its final three regular-season contests and for the duration of the team's potential postseason run.
>
> Michael
>

Well, I guess that's good that he has only one prior significant injury.
I was impressed with his performance this season. I hope he recovers
completely and they bring him back.

--Robin