See the reference at the bottom of this
post for explanation of what DVOA is.

---
July 6 2022
https://www.bloggingtheboys.com/2022/7/6/23196285/the-cowboys-were-the-most-efficient-team-last-year-and-theres-a-good-chance-they-are-again-in-2022
---

Graphic: Cowboys DVOA 2012 to 2021
(green=top 10, yellow=middle 12, red=bottom 10)
https://tinyurl.com/CowboysDVOA-2012to2021

Per that graphic, the Cowboys had the #1
DVOA in the league in 2021, which included

o the 6th-best DVOA on offense
o the 2nd-best DVOA on defense
o the 6th-best DVOA on special teams

For whatever it's worth, Football Outsiders
offered their way-too-early DVOA predictions
for the 2022 season in the following graphic:
https://tinyurl.com/FootballOutsiders2022DVOAguess

Per that graphic, the Cowboys are expected
to once again have the best DVOA in the NFL
in 2022, including

o the best on offense DVOA,
o the 2nd-best DVOA on defense
o the 7th-best DVOA on special teams

--- --- ---

Reference:

DVOA?
https://www.footballoutsiders.com/info/methods#dvoa

DVOA - Brief Explanation

Doing a better job of distributing credit
for scoring points and winning games is
the goal of DVOA, or Defense-adjusted
Value Over Average.

DVOA breaks down every single play of the
NFL season, assigning each play a value
based on both total yards and yards towards
a first down, based on work done by Pete
Palmer, Bob Carroll, and John Thorn in
their seminal book, The Hidden Game of
Football.

On first down, a play is considered a suc-
cess if it gains 45 percent of needed yards;
on second down, a play needs to gain 60 per-
cent of needed yards; on third or fourth down,
only gaining a new first down is considered
success.

THE ULTRA-SHORT VERSION:

DVOA measures a team's efficiency by comparing
success on every single play to a league aver-
age based on situation and opponent.

THE SHORT VERSION:

DVOA is a method of evaluating teams, units,
or players. It takes every single play during
the NFL season and compares each one to a
league-average baseline based on situation.

DVOA measures not just yardage, but yardage
towards a first down: Five yards on third-
and-4 are worth more than five yards on
first-and-10 and much more than five yards
on third-and-12.

Red zone plays are worth more than other
plays. Performance is also adjusted for the
quality of the opponent.

DVOA is a percentage, so a team with a DVOA
of 10.0% is 10 percent better than the aver-
age team, and a quarterback with a DVOA of
-20.0% is 20 percent worse than the average
quarterback.

Because DVOA measures scoring, defenses are
better when they are negative. For more detail,
read below.
https://www.footballoutsiders.com/info/methods#dvoa

---

observer <prohumanistfreelover@gmail.com> writes:

> See the reference at the bottom of this
> post for explanation of what DVOA is.

I used to watch the DVOA ratings a lot.

They are not a good predictor of which team will win a game.
I think I remember straight up unadjusted ELO works better.

My belief is that DVOA overemphasizes beating up on bad teams.

On Friday, July 8, 2022 at 4:11:41 PM UTC-5, Eddie Grove wrote:

> observer writes:

/> > See the reference at the bottom of this
/> > post for explanation of what DVOA is.

..> I used to watch the DVOA ratings a lot.
..>
..> They are not a good predictor of which team will win a game.
..> I think I remember straight up unadjusted ELO works better.
..>
..> My belief is that DVOA overemphasizes beating up on bad teams.

I'm unsure of what exactly ELO is. On
a search it seems the following entity
is involved with that, but I'm unclear
what that stat is based on:
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/

As for DVOA, here's what the graphic
in the previous post says about that
regarding the Cowboys estimated wins
compared to actual wins 2012 to 2021:
https://tinyurl.com/CowboysDVOA-2012to2021

Year ... Estimated DVOA Wins ... Actual Wins

2012 ................................ 8.2 ..... 8
2013 ................................ 8.5 ..... 8
2014 ................................ 10.7 ... 12
2015 ................................ 4.6 ..... 4
2016 ................................ 12.3 ... 13
2017 ................................ 9.4 ..... 9
2018 ................................ 7.3 ..... 10
2019 ................................ 11.4 ... 8
2020 ................................ 6.5 ..... 6
2021 ................................ 13.3 ... 12

I don't know where the Estimated DVOA
Wins comes from so unless I can find
a history of that somewhere, I have no
way of verifying that information.

--- --- ---

observer <prohumanistfreelover@gmail.com> writes:

> On Friday, July 8, 2022 at 4:11:41 PM UTC-5, Eddie Grove wrote:
>
>> observer writes:
>
> /> > See the reference at the bottom of this
> /> > post for explanation of what DVOA is.
>
> .> I used to watch the DVOA ratings a lot.
> .>
> .> They are not a good predictor of which team will win a game.
> .> I think I remember straight up unadjusted ELO works better.
> .>
> .> My belief is that DVOA overemphasizes beating up on bad teams.
>
> I'm unsure of what exactly ELO is. On

ELO is a simple rating system that only looks at wins and losses. It is
how chess players are ranked. After two opponents play, the winner
takes some rating points from the loser. If a big favorite wins, it
takes relatively few points. If a big underdog wins, it takes relative
more rating points.

DVOA goes to a whole lot of effort, rating every individual play in
every football game, to produce an inferior rating system.

The point is that better teams switch to "inferior" play calling when
ahead. The plays are inferior according to DVOA in the sense they get
fewer average yards per play.

On Saturday, July 9, 2022 at 4:52:26 PM UTC-5, Eddie Grove wrote:

> ELO is a simple rating system ...

https://fivethirtyeight.com/methodology/how-our-nfl-predictions-work/

Calling something simple is far removed from
what ELO actually is. The details are far from
simple - see their website, with its complicated
mathematical formulas and adjustments.

--- --- ---

observer <prohumanistfreelover@gmail.com> writes:

> On Saturday, July 9, 2022 at 4:52:26 PM UTC-5, Eddie Grove wrote:
>
>> ELO is a simple rating system ...
>
> https://fivethirtyeight.com/methodology/how-our-nfl-predictions-work/
>
> Calling something simple is far removed from
> what ELO actually is. The details are far from
> simple - see their website, with its complicated
> mathematical formulas and adjustments.

You are misunderstanding. ELO itself is simple. Well, I guess simple if
you understand the basics of a normal distribution. A certain amount of
rudimentary statistics are used. All an uninformed user needs is a
table telling how many rating points get transferred.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Elo_rating_system

fivethirtyeight is a group of sophisticated statisticians who started
with ELO as a base, and then modified it to be better.

By the way, fivethirtyeight does a football prediction contest you
really ought to try out. Instead of picking who will win each game,
you say team X will win YZ% of the time. It is a fantastic tool for
learning how unpredictable the games are. When you think a team is 90%
likely to win a game, you are usually incorrect.

On Monday, July 11, 2022 at 1:29:04 AM UTC-5, Eddie Grove wrote:

> observer writes:
> > On Saturday, July 9, 2022 at 4:52:26 PM UTC-5, Eddie Grove wrote:
> >> ELO is a simple rating system ...

/> >
/> > https://fivethirtyeight.com/methodology/how-our-nfl-predictions-work/
/> >
/> > Calling something simple is far removed from
/> > what ELO actually is. The details are far from
/> > simple - see their website, with its complicated
/> > mathematical formulas and adjustments.

..> You are misunderstanding. ELO itself is simple. Well, I guess simple if
..> you understand the basics of a normal distribution. A certain amount of
..> rudimentary statistics are used. All an uninformed user needs is a
..> table telling how many rating points get transferred.
..>
..> https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Elo_rating_system

Seems to be based on subjectively rating NFL
teams, and 538 uses complex mathematical
formulas to alter those subjective ratings. ELO
established by a Hungarian-American physics
professor.

I haven't found any entity that proposes the ELO
system is 'best' or 'better' than any other rating
system, not for chess & not for NFL football, but
no doubt the users of such a system might want
to assert it as the 'best' or 'better'. Opinions are
not proof, & the weakness of ELO is it all starts ...

.... with subjective ratings about which opinions
would differ based on the individual complexity
within each human brain which resides at the
core causality of differing subjective opinions.

..>
..> fivethirtyeight is a group of sophisticated statisticians who started
..> with ELO as a base, and then modified it to be better.

The referenced 538 website indicates major
modifications.

..>
..> By the way, fivethirtyeight does a football prediction contest you
..> really ought to try out. Instead of picking who will win each game,
..> you say team X will win YZ% of the time. It is a fantastic tool for
..> learning how unpredictable the games are. When you think a team is 90%
..> likely to win a game, you are usually incorrect.

I suspect your math on someone (hmmm,
Las Vegas oddsmakers?) thinks a team is
90% likely to win = over 50% likely to lose,
is flawed, but back to 538 & ELO ...

.... Well, my contention would be with the
word 'simple', as 538 is not simple, as I
detailed above. Definition of 'simple':
https://www.google.com/search?q=simple+meaning

"easily understood or done; presenting no
difficulty."

Your opening statement is demonstrably
false, in my opinion, as even if you reduce
ELO down to a subjective rating, that would
simply be an arbitrary opinion upon which
different persons differ, & calling opinions
'simple' with no knowledge of what different ...

.... individuals based their opinions on, not
simple, it's a part of the complex subjective
opinions within each human brain. In fact,
the human brain, well, here's an opinion on
the complexity of that which would result
in the opinions of different individuals being
uniquely complex for each individual:

https://www.google.com/search?q=human+brain+complexity

Is the human brain the most complex thing?

The brain is the last and grandest biological
frontier, the most complex thing we have yet
discovered in our universe. It contains hun-
dreds of billions of cells interlinked through
trillions of connections.

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