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sport / alt.sports.football.pro.sd-chargers / Re: 538 prediction this week

538 prediction this week

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From: eddiegr...@hotmail.com (Eddie Grove)
Newsgroups: alt.sports.football.pro.sd-chargers
Subject: 538 prediction this week
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by: Eddie Grove - Thu, 22 Dec 2022 21:54 UTC

Usually I point to the 538 guys as the voice of reason.
They understand statistics and modeling. However ...

I'm entering my predictions for the week, and 538 has
the Colts as 56% likely to win against the Chargers this week.

538 gone beyond straight ELO to also account for the QBs, and IND is
going with Foles, who I believe spent the majority of the season on the
practice squad, and obviously no other team wanted him as a backup.

This might be their strangest prediction to me all year.
Any ideas why anyone could take the Colts seriously right now?

Re: 538 prediction this week

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From: robin.mi...@invalid.invalid (Robin Miller)
Newsgroups: alt.sports.football.pro.sd-chargers
Subject: Re: 538 prediction this week
Date: Thu, 22 Dec 2022 18:35:15 -0500
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by: Robin Miller - Thu, 22 Dec 2022 23:35 UTC

Eddie Grove wrote:
> Usually I point to the 538 guys as the voice of reason.
> They understand statistics and modeling. However ...
>
> I'm entering my predictions for the week, and 538 has
> the Colts as 56% likely to win against the Chargers this week.
>
> 538 gone beyond straight ELO to also account for the QBs, and IND is
> going with Foles, who I believe spent the majority of the season on the
> practice squad, and obviously no other team wanted him as a backup.
>
> This might be their strangest prediction to me all year.
> Any ideas why anyone could take the Colts seriously right now?
>

Strange, especially with Foles playing and their top rusher out:

Daniel Popper @danielrpopper

Colts placed RB Jonathan Taylor on IR. He’s out for the season. So he
officially will not play against #Chargers on Monday night.

2:45 PM · Dec 20, 2022

--Robin

Re: 538 prediction this week

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Subject: Re: 538 prediction this week
From: phlas...@msn.com (phlash74)
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by: phlash74 - Fri, 23 Dec 2022 05:05 UTC

On Thursday, December 22, 2022 at 1:54:27 PM UTC-8, Eddie Grove wrote:
> Usually I point to the 538 guys as the voice of reason.
> They understand statistics and modeling. However ...
>
> I'm entering my predictions for the week, and 538 has
> the Colts as 56% likely to win against the Chargers this week.
>
> 538 gone beyond straight ELO to also account for the QBs, and IND is
> going with Foles, who I believe spent the majority of the season on the
> practice squad, and obviously no other team wanted him as a backup.
>
> This might be their strangest prediction to me all year.
> Any ideas why anyone could take the Colts seriously right now?

They actually hadn't been playing too badly the last few weeks, save the 4th quarter against the Cowboys and the late collapse against the Vikings. But yeah, I would think the Chargers should be in the 55-60% range to win, not Indy.

Michael

Subject	Author
538 prediction this week	Eddie Grove
Re: 538 prediction this week	Robin Miller
Re: 538 prediction this week	phlash74