I saw someone's power rankings, and that inspired me to go to 538 and
see if they had anything [they didn't], and to my surprise I saw an
article about ESPN analytics' WR rankings. Why 538 is hosting an ESPN
thing is beyond me.

I usually make derisive comments about ESPN analytics, but this time
they are obviously geniuses because I like the rankings. They've got my
#1 WR at the top of their list. A couple years ago, I said that Derrick
Henry was less important to the Titans than A.J. Brown, and I still
think so. Call me crazy.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/nfl-receiver-rankings/

You can look at an individual season from 2017 to 2022, and you can also
combine consecutive seasons finishing with 2022.

Their top 9 for 2022 are

1 A.J. Brown2022 Eagles WR
2 Justin Jefferson2022 Vikings WR
3 Tyler Lockett2022 Seahawks WR
4 Stefon Diggs2022 Bills WR
5 Diontae Johnson2022 Steelers WR
6 George Kittle2022 49ers TE
7 Brandon Aiyuk2022 49ers WR
7 Tee Higgins2022 Bengals WR
7 Chris Olave2022 Saints WR

Notably, Davante and Tyreek aren't as high as everybody rates them.
That's a sign that receivers are punished for their QBs.
On a different day I'd make fun of this.
Also, this appears to be an efficiency ranking rather than totals.

They showed their top 5 at 3 sub-categories.
There were small clumps at the top:

Getting Open : Johnson, Lockett, and Brown
Making the Catch : Pickens and Peoples-Jones
Yards after Catch : Deebo by a mile over everybody

Note that the YAC is adjusted compared to the expected YAC or something.

Mike Williams was 18th overall, 77th getting open, 3rd making the catch,
and 16th YAC.

Keenan Allen was 20th overall.

Anyway, not much real football news at the moment, so I thought I'd
share.

Eddie

Eddie Grove wrote:
> I saw someone's power rankings, and that inspired me to go to 538 and
> see if they had anything [they didn't], and to my surprise I saw an
> article about ESPN analytics' WR rankings. Why 538 is hosting an ESPN
> thing is beyond me.
>
> I usually make derisive comments about ESPN analytics, but this time
> they are obviously geniuses because I like the rankings. They've got my
> #1 WR at the top of their list. A couple years ago, I said that Derrick
> Henry was less important to the Titans than A.J. Brown, and I still
> think so. Call me crazy.
>
> https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/nfl-receiver-rankings/
>
> You can look at an individual season from 2017 to 2022, and you can also
> combine consecutive seasons finishing with 2022.
>
> Their top 9 for 2022 are
>
> 1 A.J. Brown2022 Eagles WR
> 2 Justin Jefferson2022 Vikings WR
> 3 Tyler Lockett2022 Seahawks WR
> 4 Stefon Diggs2022 Bills WR
> 5 Diontae Johnson2022 Steelers WR
> 6 George Kittle2022 49ers TE
> 7 Brandon Aiyuk2022 49ers WR
> 7 Tee Higgins2022 Bengals WR
> 7 Chris Olave2022 Saints WR
>
> Notably, Davante and Tyreek aren't as high as everybody rates them.
> That's a sign that receivers are punished for their QBs.
> On a different day I'd make fun of this.
> Also, this appears to be an efficiency ranking rather than totals.
>
> They showed their top 5 at 3 sub-categories.
> There were small clumps at the top:
>
> Getting Open : Johnson, Lockett, and Brown
> Making the Catch : Pickens and Peoples-Jones
> Yards after Catch : Deebo by a mile over everybody
>
> Note that the YAC is adjusted compared to the expected YAC or something.
>
> Mike Williams was 18th overall, 77th getting open, 3rd making the catch,
> and 16th YAC.
>
> Keenan Allen was 20th overall.
>
> Anyway, not much real football news at the moment, so I thought I'd
> share.
>
>
> Eddie
>

Interesting stuff, thanks!

--Robin

On Saturday, June 17, 2023 at 5:09:51 PM UTC-7, Eddie Grove wrote:
> I saw someone's power rankings, and that inspired me to go to 538 and
> see if they had anything [they didn't], and to my surprise I saw an
> article about ESPN analytics' WR rankings. Why 538 is hosting an ESPN
> thing is beyond me.

ESPN bought 538 about a decade ago, bringing Nate Silver back to the realm of sports analytics where he got his start. With Disney (parent company of both ABC News and ESPN) having massive layoffs recently, they've basically changed the site completely and Silver is leaving at the end of his contract - forget exactly when that is.

>
> I usually make derisive comments about ESPN analytics, but this time
> they are obviously geniuses because I like the rankings. They've got my
> #1 WR at the top of their list. A couple years ago, I said that Derrick
> Henry was less important to the Titans than A.J. Brown, and I still
> think so. Call me crazy.

You're not crazy. Tennessee fell apart this year without Brown even though Henry missed only one game, the year before they were 12-5 with Henry missing over half the season. There's a big reason why wideouts are getting paid and running backs (like Ekeler) are begging for scraps nowadays.

>
> https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/nfl-receiver-rankings/
>
> You can look at an individual season from 2017 to 2022, and you can also
> combine consecutive seasons finishing with 2022.
>
> Their top 9 for 2022 are
>
> 1 A.J. Brown2022 Eagles WR
> 2 Justin Jefferson2022 Vikings WR
> 3 Tyler Lockett2022 Seahawks WR
> 4 Stefon Diggs2022 Bills WR
> 5 Diontae Johnson2022 Steelers WR
> 6 George Kittle2022 49ers TE
> 7 Brandon Aiyuk2022 49ers WR
> 7 Tee Higgins2022 Bengals WR
> 7 Chris Olave2022 Saints WR
>
> Notably, Davante and Tyreek aren't as high as everybody rates them.
> That's a sign that receivers are punished for their QBs.
> On a different day I'd make fun of this.
> Also, this appears to be an efficiency ranking rather than totals.
>
> They showed their top 5 at 3 sub-categories.
> There were small clumps at the top:
>
> Getting Open : Johnson, Lockett, and Brown
> Making the Catch : Pickens and Peoples-Jones
> Yards after Catch : Deebo by a mile over everybody
>
> Note that the YAC is adjusted compared to the expected YAC or something.
>
> Mike Williams was 18th overall, 77th getting open, 3rd making the catch,
> and 16th YAC.
>
> Keenan Allen was 20th overall.
>
> Anyway, not much real football news at the moment, so I thought I'd
> share.
>
>
> Eddie

Thanks for sharing, interesting stuff. I'm shocked that Allen rated so low in getting open (32nd), his route running is his best trait by far.

Michael

phlash74 <phlash74@msn.com> writes:

> On Saturday, June 17, 2023 at 5:09:51 PM UTC-7, Eddie Grove wrote:
>> I saw someone's power rankings, and that inspired me to go to 538 and
>> see if they had anything [they didn't], and to my surprise I saw an
>> article about ESPN analytics' WR rankings. Why 538 is hosting an ESPN
>> thing is beyond me.
>
> ESPN bought 538 about a decade ago, bringing Nate Silver back to the
> realm of sports analytics where he got his start. With Disney (parent
> company of both ABC News and ESPN) having massive layoffs recently,
> they've basically changed the site completely and Silver is leaving at
> the end of his contract - forget exactly when that is.

That's very interesting! And pretty sad. :(

>> https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/nfl-receiver-rankings/

> Thanks for sharing, interesting stuff. I'm shocked that Allen rated so low in getting open (32nd), his route running is his best trait by far.

The route running rankings did seem pretty random.

As a wild guess, perhaps their stats don't adjust for time to pass.
If it takes Allen 2.8 seconds to get open on a deep route, and Herbert
threw to Ekeler at 2.3 seconds, does that count as "not open" stat?

I just checked the article explaining the methods.
https://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id/34649390/espn-receiver-tracking-metrics-how-new-nfl-stats-work-open-catch-yac-scores

"Open Score: How is it possible to assess untargeted routes?

For every route run, Open Score assesses the likelihood a receiver would
be able to complete a catch, conditional on if he were targeted. The
assessment takes place a moment before pass release (0.2 seconds prior)"

That clearly disadvantages WRs in systems with quick short passes.
Football is a team game.
Individual stats are often determined by coaches and teammates.

Before I forget, Travis Kelce is a full category better than any other
receiver in getting open. It doesn't help if you are open but the QB is
looking somewhere else. I forget who said what where, but I heard this
in the last month, and I remember believing it when I heard it.

Kelce doesn't merely get open all the time. He adjusts his routes so
that he will pop open at the time in the play when Mahomes gets to him
in the read progression. So on plays where Kelce manages this miraculous
route running, ESPN analytics would say he wasn't open if Mahomes threw
to someone earlier in the progression.

Eddie