NBA playoff predictions: Anonymous scout, coach and executive pick
Heat-Celtics and Warriors-Mavericks winners

https://theathletic.com/3313738/2022/05/16/nba-predictions-heat-celtics-warriors-mavericks/

Western Conference finals: No. 3 Warriors vs. No. 4 Mavericks

To understand the intricacies of each series, The Athletic has turned to
three experts: a scout, a coach and a team executive. We granted each of
them anonymity to allow them to be completely candid as they predicted
the outcomes of each series.

Scout’s outlook: “Dallas has got momentum. They’re confident. That is
going to be a factor in the series. Nobody expected them to be there —
maybe not even themselves. They’re going in with this massive amount of
confidence, so how can you possibly count them out? They may be
underdogs, but (look at what they just accomplished by crushing the Suns
in Game 7 on the Suns’ home floor). How does it play out throughout this
series? I don’t know. But at the outset of the series, the Mavs have an
amazing amount of momentum. …

“The X-factor, Spencer Dinwiddie, was big for Dallas against Phoenix in
Game 6 and Game 7. He was huge. … He’s a key factor if he can perform at
a high level. The other thing about Dallas is they’ve got three go-to
guys: Dončić, Jalen Brunson and then Dinwiddie.

“Dorian Finney-Smith will probably be on Klay Thompson, so the Mavs have
somebody who can guard one of the Warriors’ key guys. … I’m not sure
they have anybody who can guard Steph Curry effectively. Brunson’s not a
great defender. …

“Golden State, they’re a little thin. Their X-factor is Jordan Poole, I
would say. Can he really, truly perform at this level? He’s been good, a
little erratic at times, as has been Dinwiddie. But if you want to
compare the X-factors, who has the advantage? I’d probably give it to
Dallas because of Dinwiddie’s experience. … Otto Porter Jr. played half
of Game 5 (against Memphis) and didn’t play in Game 6. What’s his status
(going to be)? …

“I pick Dallas in this series. I just think they have better depth, and
they’re on a high. Golden State is depleted. I might be ‘Johnny Come
Lately’ to Dallas, like everybody else. I think the thing is: Can
Finney-Smith make shots? Can Maxi Kleber make shots? Can Reggie Bullock,
who’s been very good, continue to make shots? Can Dinwiddie be more
consistent? Brunson is kind of stable. … I just think they’ve got more.”

Coach’s outlook: “Obviously, the key is the matchup on Luka. Who are
they putting on Luka that can bother his shooting? Is it (Andrew)
Wiggins)? Is (Andre) Iguodala going to be healthy enough? He hasn’t
played now in how long? Are they counting on him to be able to come back
and give them any minutes defensively, which I doubt?

“To me, it’s still Golden State. It’s Golden State until somebody knocks
them out. I think sometimes on your way to a championship or the finals,
you have to overcome some things. To me, the breakthrough series for
them was Memphis. If they got through Memphis, the next series now with
Dallas is a better matchup for them. Probably not as physical as the
last one they just went through. …

“Golden State’s IQ and their cutting off the basketball, how they move
and the way they play, with the IQ they play with, it grinds on you
throughout a seven-game series. You may be able to take that away one or
two games, but to take away the easy baskets they get and the IQ baskets
they get and the ‘personnel’ baskets they get — it’s amazing how quickly
they capitalize on your mistake. Whether you’re playing on the high side
and they use the backdoor, or once the guy with the basketball gives it
up, how quickly he relocates or comes back to the basketball, it’s amazing.

“Those scorers, they know. And the rebounders and the screeners and the
rollers, they know what they do. And it doesn’t even have to be a big
guy. (Kevon) Looney had a great Game 6. He doesn’t even have to be the
roller. Sometimes it could be Wiggins playing that position where he’s
setting a quick screen on Steph, and two people are jumping out, and
he’s slipping or he’s rolling. They give up themselves for the
betterment of the offense, not knowing whether they’re going to get the
ball cutting backdoor or screening and slipping. But they know if they
do that, good things are going to happen. To me, that’s the ultimate
sacrifice. They do all the little things offensively that wear you down
over the course of a series.

“For Dallas, obviously Luka is a playoff performer. He’s had enough
games now, and he’s shown us enough. Who’s going to come along with him?
That was Dallas’ question after the first two games against Phoenix. Can
they start the series like that? Can they have an impact as they did
later in that Phoenix series? They need a second (and) third clear
(option) as to who’s going to score and how they’re going to help the
team. Mainly, it’s on (Jalen) Brunson right now. He’s become scoring
option 1A to Luka.

“I just see Golden State as being too locked in, too experienced. Golden
State will turn the ball over. That’s the most glaring negative they
have. They turn the basketball over at a high level. If they can
withstand some of their turnovers and still play solid defensive
basketball, they’ve got a chance to, I think, close it out in five or six.”

Executive’s outlook: “Curry and Draymond Green and Klay Thompson — I
think they got their groove at the end of the regular season, and
they’ve been able to extend it into these playoffs. …

“It’s a great accomplishment for Dallas to have gotten this far. …

“I think Golden State has the advantage on many levels. But Dallas has
the brilliance of Luka Dončić, and the Mavericks have embraced this
three-point guard attack. But the Mavs not having the experience that
Golden State has and not having seen the pressure of the conference
finals, I think the Warriors have the advantage. …

“Dončić, he’s such a unique individual talent, and they’ve done a good
job of putting the right pieces around him to find success. At this
point, with the pressure of the conference finals, I think the Warriors
would have a huge advantage in having been here before so many times and
having seen it and knowing how to make those adjustments very quickly.”

Scout’s pick: Mavericks in six
Coach’s pick: Warriors in five
Executive’s pick: Warriors in six
Consensus advancing team: Warriors