https://theathletic.com/3313054/2022/05/16/warriors-mavericks-preview-matchup-predictions/

Warriors-Mavericks series preview: Biggest questions, key matchup,
predictions and more

[several videos omitted]

By Anthony Slater
May 16, 2022

The fourth and final meeting between the Warriors and Mavericks this
regular season whittled its way into a tight game late. Factors within
the matchup strip it of some relevance. Draymond Green didn’t play. Gary
Payton II did. But the tactical crunch-time battle between the two sides
revealed plenty about their upcoming conference finals chess match.

The Dallas offense revolves around Luka Dončić. Two Warriors reps have
already compared this test to the one they once faced against prime
James Harden and the Rockets. Spread floor, shooters everywhere, ball
constantly in the hands of a slow-moving generational offensive talent
who will shoot stepbacks, bait fouls, zing pinpoint passes and hunt
switches.

The Warriors were in a switch everything defensive scheme late in that
March matchup. It’s what they typically preferred against Harden. Dončić
is patient. Dallas was the slowest-paced team in the NBA this season. He
bleeds the clock while surveying landscape and plotting his attack.

On this particular possession, Dončić chose Steph Curry as his prey.
During others, he went after Otto Porter Jr. and Klay Thompson. In this
series, Jordan Poole will have a target on his back.

But back to that fourth quarter. The Mavericks are up two with just
under five minutes left. Curry is guarding Reggie Bullock. Dončić calls
Bullock up for a high screen and gets Andrew Wiggins switched off of
him. Bullock then fades to the corner, and the Warriors let Dončić
operate against Curry on an island. He muscles into an easy 8-foot push
shot.

Contrast that to what was happening to the lead guard on the other end
of the floor. During that same fourth quarter, Curry wasn’t allowed to
operate in single coverage. Jason Kidd wouldn’t let him. Dallas deploys
an aggressive scheme, and Kidd isn’t the type to let a scorer like Curry
beat him.

So every time the Warriors set a screen for Curry, two defenders stayed
with him. Kidd even sent some traps to half court to get the ball out of
his hands. Curry played all 12 fourth-quarter minutes and didn’t attempt
a single shot. It was a statistic, 30 minutes after the game while
piling food onto his plate, he kept mentioning.

“Zero shots,” he shook his head.

Here is an example. Moses Moody sets a screen for Curry up top in an
attempt to get the slower Dončić onto him. Dončić switches, but Bullock
also remains. They double. Curry passes out of it. The possession ends
in an open Jonathan Kuminga corner 3. He misses.

That’s a fine look, especially if it’s a higher percentage shooter like
Poole, Thompson or Porter. In that same fourth quarter, Moody scored 13
points on 5-of-5 shooting, eating off all the open looks created by
those Curry double-teams. There are ways to beat that aggression. Steve
Kerr’s lineup choices will matter.

But the differing schematic choices on each side caught the attention of
a frustrated Curry postgame. This was during one of the Warriors’ colder
stretches of the season. This was the seventh loss in nine games. It
clearly stung Curry to watch Dončić have the freedom to operate and
dictate action in the fourth while he was bottled up. Curry delivered
one of his more honest postgame pressers.

“We gotta get more aligned on what we’re trying to do defensively,”
Curry said. “They were trying to hunt isolations, and it seemed like
they had the whole court to work with. Maybe take a page out of the way
they defended us, especially if we’re going small with no rim protection.”

That’s where this series preview begins.

Biggest Warriors question: How do they guard Dončić?

The Warriors have generally operated under the defensive belief that
it’s better to cut off the others rather than overload against a
singular talent. That’s the tactic they took when plotting out the first
two rounds. They allowed Nikola Jokić one-on-one post-ups while cutting
off his passing lanes. Then they backed off Ja Morant, packed the paint,
let him take jumpers and stayed home on shooters like Desmond Bane.

Jokić averaged 31.0 points during the five-game series. Morant averaged
38.3 in his three games. But the Warriors went 6-2 against them and
seemed generally satisfied with their defensive process and results.
That’s the expected strategy against Dončić to open the conference
finals: make him a scorer, don’t double-team, limit the others.

But there’s a difference between making Dončić beat you as a scorer and
allowing him to do whatever he wants. If the Warriors soft switch
everything and stay home on shooters, he will spend the entire game
dragging Curry or Poole into high screen action and playing bully ball
to get where he wants. Keeping Poole on the floor is crucial in this
series. The Warriors can’t let him get relentlessly hunted without
mixing up coverages.

Every Dwight Powell minute is probably a favor to the Warriors. Powell
is the Mavericks’ starting center. He is a high-energy dive man and lob
threat. But because he doesn’t pick and pop and because the Warriors
don’t fear Dončić as a lethal deep-range shooter, they’re comfortable
playing drop coverage against Dončić when Powell is on the floor.

Wiggins will be the primary Dončić defender. Wiggins has had a terrific
run in the playoffs. He is quietly becoming one of the better individual
wing defenders around. In the four Dallas matchups this season, Wiggins
spent the bulk of each game guarding Dončić. For a full compilation of
his work against Dončić, click here.

Dončić had some success against Wiggins. He made 47 percent of his
shots. But Wiggins made almost everything at least relatively difficult
and caused a few turnovers. This is the type of defensive possession the
Warriors crave in this series. Powell sets a screen, Kevon Looney is in
drop coverage, Wiggins trails, gets back in the play and uses a long arm
contest to force a miss.

Slight problem for the Warriors: Powell starts, but he doesn’t play a
ton. In the seven games against Phoenix, he only received 94 total
minutes. Maxi Kleber, his backup, played 191 minutes. That’s because
Kleber is a stretch big whose jumper is scorching. He is 29-of-49 from 3
in these playoffs. It’s more difficult to run that drop coverage when
you have to protect against the pick and pop instead of the lob.

Looney will probably start and match up with Powell, but this series
profiles as small-ball heaven. That means Green against Kleber at the
center spot or even some Dallas lineups that don’t include Powell or Kleber.

This is when Dončić will be most difficult to defend. Check out this
clip from crunch time of a late February game in San Francisco. The
Mavericks are playing Bullock, Dorian Finney-Smith, Jalen Brunson and
Spencer Dinwiddie next to Dončić. That’s four wings/guards who can all
shoot it.

Dončić uses a Finney-Smith screen in an attempt to get Curry onto him,
but this is an informative clip. The Warriors aren’t doubling, they
aren’t dropping, but they aren’t soft switching either. Curry hedges
quickly and then tries to get back to Finney-Smith and leave Wiggins
with the Dončić assignment. That’s how I’d expect them to play Dončić
when Powell is off the floor.

But Dončić uses that chip screen to get a step on Wiggins and turn the
corner. It results in a dagger layup in crunch time. There are no easy
answers to defending Dončić.

Quick note: Kuminga is a wild card option on Dončić for brief stretches.
The Warriors tried it during the regular season. Click here for the
tape. Kuminga is long, quick and aggressive. He does have some physical
tools that bother Dončić a bit. But he’s also over-aggressive and
foul-prone. The Warriors will need to avoid that matchup if they’re in
the bonus or trying to avoid it.

Biggest Mavericks question: How well will they stop the Warriors?

The Suns were an offensive machine. They just scored 27 first-half
points and watched their season end in blowout fashion on their home
floor. Dončić was the offensive hero. But it was Dallas’ collective
defensive effort that strangled Phoenix’s dream season.

The Mavericks finished with a 109.1 defensive rating this season,
seventh stingiest in the NBA. Once the calendar turned to 2022, they
were fourth-best. There were patches of the season where they were the best.

That’s the Jason Kidd impact. The season before, under Rick Carlisle,
the Mavericks finished with the 21st ranked defense. Kidd arrived, and
the defensive culture appears to have shifted. The trade of Kristaps
Porziņģis helped. So did Kidd’s lineup choices and the internal player
development. Finney-Smith is an excellent defensive wing. Bullock is
above average.

Check out this wired segment from Game 7.

The Mavericks aren’t without defensive warts. Brunson, a high-minutes
guard, is small. Dāvis Bertāns will be targeted every minute he’s on the
floor. Dinwiddie has decent size but has never been a plus defender.
Dončić can be exploited if he is either fatigued or disengaged.