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sport / alt.sports.football.pro.dallas-cowboys / Re: What is the 'normal' playoff-repeat frequency of NFL teams?

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* What is the 'normal' playoff-repeat frequency of NFL teams?observer
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What is the 'normal' playoff-repeat frequency of NFL teams?

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Subject: What is the 'normal' playoff-repeat frequency of NFL teams?
From: prohuman...@gmail.com (observer)
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 by: observer - Sat, 20 May 2023 17:54 UTC

NFL playoff teams viewable for each
year via
https://www.nfl.com/standings/

From 2017 to 2022, 35 of 78 teams in
the playoffs were teams that had been
in the playoffs the previous year, a play-
off repeat rate of 44.87%.

So, needless to say, many of the 2023
preseason predictions that rely heavily
on the 2022 results have a high chance
of being wrong being that the highest
repeat rate has been 50% (in 2019, 2021,
& 2022).

Put another way, of the 18 teams that
didn't make it to the playoffs in 2022,
odds are that up to 7 of them will make
it to the playoffs in 2023, & of the ...

.... 14 teams that made it to the playoffs
in 2022, odds are that 7 of them won't
make it to the playoffs in 2023.

Exception - the notable exception to the
repeat rule, the Chiefs are the sole team
that has repeated every year 2017-2022.
You have to go all the way back to 2014
to find a season that the Chiefs did not
make it to the playoffs. The Eagles & ...

.... Bills come close, each having been
in 5 of 6 playoff seasons 2017-2022.

A small sampling of playoff teams that
repeated their playoff appearance in the
following year indicated by an asterisk *
to the right of teams that repeated from
2017 to 2022:

2017 playoff teams (4 of 12 repeats):
Patriots *
Bills
Steelers *
Jaguars
Titans
Chiefs *
Eagles
Vikings
Saints
Falcons *
Panthers
Rams

2018 playoff teams (5 of 12 repeats)
Patriots *
Ravens
Texans
Colts
Chiefs *
Chargers
Cowboys
Eagles *
Bears
Saints *
Rams *
Seahawks

2019 playoff teams (6 of 12 repeats)
Patriots *
Bills
Ravens *
Texans *
Titans
Chiefs *
Eagles *
Packers
Vikings
Saints *
49ers

2020 playoff teams, first year
with 14 playoff teams (6 of 14 repeats)
Bills *
Steelers
Ravens *
Browns
Titans *
Colts
Chiefs *
Coms
Packers *
Bears
Saints *
Bucs
Seahawks
Rams

2021 Playoff Teams (7 of 14 repeats)
Bills *
Patriots
Bengals
Steelers *
Titans *
Chiefs *
Raiders
Cowboys
Eagles
Packers *
Bucs *
Rams *
Cardinals
49ers

2022 Playoff Teams (7 of 14 repeats)
Bills *
Dolphins
Bengals *
Ravens
Jaguars
Chiefs *
Chargers
Eagles *
Cowboys *
Giants
Vikings
Bucs *
49ers *
Seahawks

Playoff Frequency for all 32 NFL Teams
from 2017 to 2022:

1. Chiefs ....... 6

2. Eagles ....... 5
2. Bills ........... 5

4. Titans ........ 4
4. Patriots ..... 4
4. Ravens ...... 4
4. Saints ........ 4
4. Rams ......... 4

9. Cowboys ... 3
9. Steelers ..... 3
9. Packers ..... 3
9. Vikings ...... 3
9. Bucs .......... 3
9. Seahawks . 3
9. 49ers ......... 3

16. Bengals ... 2
16. Colts ........ 2
16. Texans ..... 2
16. Chargers .. 2
16. Jaguars .... 2
16. Bears ........ 2

22. Browns ..... 1
22. Giants ....... 1
22. Coms ........ 1
22. Dolphins ... 1
22. Raiders ..... 1
22. Panthers ... 1
22. Falcons ..... 1
22. Cardinals .. 1

30. Lions ......... 0
31. Jets ........... 0
32. Broncos .... 0

~~~

---
May 8 2023

The Longest Postseason Droughts in NFL History
https://theanalyst.com/na/2023/05/longest-postseason-droughts-in-nfl-history
---

--- --- ---

Re: What is the 'normal' playoff-repeat frequency of NFL teams?

<0f6be6c2-7c09-4c7b-a21b-7c5ef4958b01n@googlegroups.com>

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Subject: Re: What is the 'normal' playoff-repeat frequency of NFL teams?
From: prohuman...@gmail.com (observer)
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 by: observer - Tue, 23 May 2023 00:02 UTC

Follow-up:

Perfect example of the manner in which
next season forecasts act as if they're a
near carbon copy of the previous season,
the ESPN FPI predicting 12 of 14 teams
(85.7%) will repeat a playoff trip in 2023
despite the NFL playoff-repeat rate is ...

.... rarely over 50%, happened just twice
from 2003 to 2009 when 7 of 12 playoff-
repeat teams occurred. Didn't happen
from 2017 to 2022. See the following:
https://bleacherreport.com/articles/322471-the-nfl-playoffs-year-to-year-randomness-posing-as-parity
2003 to 2009, playoff-repeat rate = 46.9%
2017 to 2022, playoff-repeat rate = 44.87% (per previous post in this thread)

14 2022 playoff teams:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022%E2%80%9323_NFL_playoffs

14 2023 playoff teams as predicted
by ESPN FPI:
https://twitter.com/SethWalder/status/1660653521413328897/photo/1

1 Chiefs
2 Bills
3 Bengals
4 Jets (only new playoff team, replacing Jaguars)
5 Chargers
6 Dolphins
7 Ravens

1 Eagles
2 49ers
3 Cowboys
4 Lions (only new playoff team, replacing Bucs)
5 Giants
6 Vikings
7 Seahawks

On Saturday, May 20, 2023 at 12:54:52 PM UTC-5, observer wrote:

..> NFL playoff teams viewable for each
..> year via
..> https://www.nfl.com/standings/
..>
..> From 2017 to 2022, 35 of 78 teams in
..> the playoffs were teams that had been
..> in the playoffs the previous year, a play-
..> off repeat rate of 44.87%.
..>
..> So, needless to say, many of the 2023
..> preseason predictions that rely heavily
..> on the 2022 results have a high chance
..> of being wrong being that the highest
..> repeat rate has been 50% (in 2019, 2021,
..> & 2022).
..>
..> Put another way, of the 18 teams that
..> didn't make it to the playoffs in 2022,
..> odds are that up to 7 of them will make
..> it to the playoffs in 2023, & of the ...
..>
..> ... 14 teams that made it to the playoffs
..> in 2022, odds are that 7 of them won't
..> make it to the playoffs in 2023.
..>
..> Exception - the notable exception to the
..> repeat rule, the Chiefs are the sole team
..> that has repeated every year 2017-2022.
..> You have to go all the way back to 2014
..> to find a season that the Chiefs did not
..> make it to the playoffs. The Eagles & ...
..>
..> ... Bills come close, each having been
..> in 5 of 6 playoff seasons 2017-2022.
..>
..> A small sampling of playoff teams that
..> repeated their playoff appearance in the
..> following year indicated by an asterisk *
..> to the right of teams that repeated from
..> 2017 to 2022:
..>
..> 2017 playoff teams (4 of 12 repeats):
..> Patriots *
..> Bills
..> Steelers *
..> Jaguars
..> Titans
..> Chiefs *
..> Eagles
..> Vikings
..> Saints
..> Falcons *
..> Panthers
..> Rams
..>
..> 2018 playoff teams (5 of 12 repeats)
..> Patriots *
..> Ravens
..> Texans
..> Colts
..> Chiefs *
..> Chargers
..> Cowboys
..> Eagles *
..> Bears
..> Saints *
..> Rams *
..> Seahawks
..>
..> 2019 playoff teams (6 of 12 repeats)
..> Patriots *
..> Bills
..> Ravens *
..> Texans *
..> Titans
..> Chiefs *
..> Eagles *
..> Packers
..> Vikings
..> Saints *
..> 49ers
..>
..> 2020 playoff teams, first year
..> with 14 playoff teams (6 of 14 repeats)
..> Bills *
..> Steelers
..> Ravens *
..> Browns
..> Titans *
..> Colts
..> Chiefs *
..> Coms
..> Packers *
..> Bears
..> Saints *
..> Bucs
..> Seahawks
..> Rams
..>
..> 2021 Playoff Teams (7 of 14 repeats)
..> Bills *
..> Patriots
..> Bengals
..> Steelers *
..> Titans *
..> Chiefs *
..> Raiders
..> Cowboys
..> Eagles
..> Packers *
..> Bucs *
..> Rams *
..> Cardinals
..> 49ers
..>
..> 2022 Playoff Teams (7 of 14 repeats)
..> Bills *
..> Dolphins
..> Bengals *
..> Ravens
..> Jaguars
..> Chiefs *
..> Chargers
..> Eagles *
..> Cowboys *
..> Giants
..> Vikings
..> Bucs *
..> 49ers *
..> Seahawks
..>
..> Playoff Frequency for all 32 NFL Teams
..> from 2017 to 2022:
..>
..> 1. Chiefs ....... 6
..>
..> 2. Eagles ....... 5
..> 2. Bills ........... 5
..>
..> 4. Titans ........ 4
..> 4. Patriots ..... 4
..> 4. Ravens ...... 4
..> 4. Saints ........ 4
..> 4. Rams ......... 4
..>
..> 9. Cowboys ... 3
..> 9. Steelers ..... 3
..> 9. Packers ..... 3
..> 9. Vikings ...... 3
..> 9. Bucs .......... 3
..> 9. Seahawks . 3
..> 9. 49ers ......... 3
..>
..> 16. Bengals ... 2
..> 16. Colts ........ 2
..> 16. Texans ..... 2
..> 16. Chargers .. 2
..> 16. Jaguars .... 2
..> 16. Bears ........ 2
..>
..> 22. Browns ..... 1
..> 22. Giants ....... 1
..> 22. Coms ........ 1
..> 22. Dolphins ... 1
..> 22. Raiders ..... 1
..> 22. Panthers ... 1
..> 22. Falcons ..... 1
..> 22. Cardinals .. 1
..>
..> 30. Lions ......... 0
..> 31. Jets ........... 0
..> 32. Broncos .... 0
..>
..> ~~~
..>
..> ---
..> May 8 2023
..>
..> The Longest Postseason Droughts in NFL History
..> https://theanalyst.com/na/2023/05/longest-postseason-droughts-in-nfl-history
..> ---
..>
..> *--- --- ---*

Re: What is the 'normal' playoff-repeat frequency of NFL teams?

<3a660b5b-d84a-42ee-9c88-e69335f1d45fn@googlegroups.com>

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Subject: Re: What is the 'normal' playoff-repeat frequency of NFL teams?
From: prohuman...@gmail.com (observer)
Injection-Date: Tue, 23 May 2023 00:45:22 +0000
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 by: observer - Tue, 23 May 2023 00:45 UTC

Corrected re-post as I simply listed the
top 7 teams in each conference based
on ESPN FPI rankings, but since no AFC
South team was in the top 7 AFC teams
& no NFC South team was in the top 7
NFC teams, I've corrected that list to ...

.... replace the 7th ranked AFC team (Rav-
ens) with the top ranked AFC South team
(Jaguars) & replaced the 7th ranked NFC
team (Seahawks) with the top ranked
NFC South team (Saints), as follows:

Follow-up:

Perfect example of the manner in which
next season forecasts act as if they're a
near carbon copy of the previous season,
the ESPN FPI predicting 11 of 14 teams
(78.6%) will repeat a playoff trip in 2023
despite the NFL playoff-repeat rate is ...

.... rarely over 50%, happened just twice
from 2003 to 2009 when 7 of 12 playoff-
repeat teams occurred. Didn't happen
from 2017 to 2022. See the following:
https://bleacherreport.com/articles/322471-the-nfl-playoffs-year-to-year-randomness-posing-as-parity
2003 to 2009, playoff-repeat rate = 46.9%
2017 to 2022, playoff-repeat rate = 44.87% (per previous post in this thread)

14 2022 playoff teams:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022%E2%80%9323_NFL_playoffs

14 2023 playoff teams as predicted
by ESPN FPI:
https://twitter.com/SethWalder/status/1660653521413328897/photo/1

1 Chiefs
2 Bills
3 Bengals
4 Jets (only new playoff team, replacing Ravens)
5 Chargers
6 Dolphins
7 Jaguars (even though Ravens are higher ranked
than Jaguars, Jaguars would be in playoffs like
they were last year due to their being the highest
ranked AFC South team)

1 Eagles
2 49ers
3 Cowboys
4 Lions (1 of 2 new playoff teams, replacing
... the Seahawks)
5 Giants
6 Vikings
7 Saints (2nd of 2 new playoff teams, the
Saints are the top ranked NFC South team
& would be in the playoffs in place of the
higher ranked Seahawks even though the
Saints are the 9th-highest ranked NFC
team - they replace the Bucs)

On Saturday, May 20, 2023 at 12:54:52 PM UTC-5, observer wrote:

..> NFL playoff teams viewable for each
..> year via
..> https://www.nfl.com/standings/
..>
..> From 2017 to 2022, 35 of 78 teams in
..> the playoffs were teams that had been
..> in the playoffs the previous year, a play-
..> off repeat rate of 44.87%.
..>
..> So, needless to say, many of the 2023
..> preseason predictions that rely heavily
..> on the 2022 results have a high chance
..> of being wrong being that the highest
..> repeat rate has been 50% (in 2019, 2021,
..> & 2022).
..>
..> Put another way, of the 18 teams that
..> didn't make it to the playoffs in 2022,
..> odds are that up to 7 of them will make
..> it to the playoffs in 2023, & of the ...
..>
..> ... 14 teams that made it to the playoffs
..> in 2022, odds are that 7 of them won't
..> make it to the playoffs in 2023.
..>
..> Exception - the notable exception to the
..> repeat rule, the Chiefs are the sole team
..> that has repeated every year 2017-2022.
..> You have to go all the way back to 2014
..> to find a season that the Chiefs did not
..> make it to the playoffs. The Eagles & ...
..>
..> ... Bills come close, each having been
..> in 5 of 6 playoff seasons 2017-2022.
..>
..> A small sampling of playoff teams that
..> repeated their playoff appearance in the
..> following year indicated by an asterisk *
..> to the right of teams that repeated from
..> 2017 to 2022:
..>
..> 2017 playoff teams (4 of 12 repeats):
..> Patriots *
..> Bills
..> Steelers *
..> Jaguars
..> Titans
..> Chiefs *
..> Eagles
..> Vikings
..> Saints
..> Falcons *
..> Panthers
..> Rams
..>
..> 2018 playoff teams (5 of 12 repeats)
..> Patriots *
..> Ravens
..> Texans
..> Colts
..> Chiefs *
..> Chargers
..> Cowboys
..> Eagles *
..> Bears
..> Saints *
..> Rams *
..> Seahawks
..>
..> 2019 playoff teams (6 of 12 repeats)
..> Patriots *
..> Bills
..> Ravens *
..> Texans *
..> Titans
..> Chiefs *
..> Eagles *
..> Packers
..> Vikings
..> Saints *
..> 49ers
..>
..> 2020 playoff teams, first year
..> with 14 playoff teams (6 of 14 repeats)
..> Bills *
..> Steelers
..> Ravens *
..> Browns
..> Titans *
..> Colts
..> Chiefs *
..> Coms
..> Packers *
..> Bears
..> Saints *
..> Bucs
..> Seahawks
..> Rams
..>
..> 2021 Playoff Teams (7 of 14 repeats)
..> Bills *
..> Patriots
..> Bengals
..> Steelers *
..> Titans *
..> Chiefs *
..> Raiders
..> Cowboys
..> Eagles
..> Packers *
..> Bucs *
..> Rams *
..> Cardinals
..> 49ers
..>
..> 2022 Playoff Teams (7 of 14 repeats)
..> Bills *
..> Dolphins
..> Bengals *
..> Ravens
..> Jaguars
..> Chiefs *
..> Chargers
..> Eagles *
..> Cowboys *
..> Giants
..> Vikings
..> Bucs *
..> 49ers *
..> Seahawks
..>
..> Playoff Frequency for all 32 NFL Teams
..> from 2017 to 2022:
..>
..> 1. Chiefs ....... 6
..>
..> 2. Eagles ....... 5
..> 2. Bills ........... 5
..>
..> 4. Titans ........ 4
..> 4. Patriots ..... 4
..> 4. Ravens ...... 4
..> 4. Saints ........ 4
..> 4. Rams ......... 4
..>
..> 9. Cowboys ... 3
..> 9. Steelers ..... 3
..> 9. Packers ..... 3
..> 9. Vikings ...... 3
..> 9. Bucs .......... 3
..> 9. Seahawks . 3
..> 9. 49ers ......... 3
..>
..> 16. Bengals ... 2
..> 16. Colts ........ 2
..> 16. Texans ..... 2
..> 16. Chargers .. 2
..> 16. Jaguars .... 2
..> 16. Bears ........ 2
..>
..> 22. Browns ..... 1
..> 22. Giants ....... 1
..> 22. Coms ........ 1
..> 22. Dolphins ... 1
..> 22. Raiders ..... 1
..> 22. Panthers ... 1
..> 22. Falcons ..... 1
..> 22. Cardinals .. 1
..>
..> 30. Lions ......... 0
..> 31. Jets ........... 0
..> 32. Broncos .... 0
..>
..> ~~~
..>
..> ---
..> May 8 2023
..>
..> The Longest Postseason Droughts in NFL History
..> https://theanalyst.com/na/2023/05/longest-postseason-droughts-in-nfl-history
..> ---
..>
..> *--- --- ---*


sport / alt.sports.football.pro.dallas-cowboys / Re: What is the 'normal' playoff-repeat frequency of NFL teams?

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