ESPN projection has Warriors in play-in tournament, with an explanation
Warriors' two down seasons, with Klay Thompson injured, impacted projections
>SAN FRANCISCO, CALIFORNIA – JUNE 20: Golden State Warriors’ Stephen
Curry (30) holds the NBA Finals MVP trophy as he greets fans during the
Championship Parade on Market Street in San Francisco, Calif., on
Monday, June 20, 2022. The Warriors defeated the Boston Celtics to win
their fourth NBA Championship in eight years. (Jose Carlos Fajardo/Bay
Area News Group)
>SAN FRANCISCO, CALIFORNIA – JUNE 20: Golden State Warriors’ Stephen
Curry (30) holds the NBA Finals MVP trophy as he greets fans during the
Championship Parade on Market Street in San Francisco, Calif., on
Monday, June 20, 2022. The Warriors defeated the Boston Celtics to win
their fourth NBA Championship in eight years. (Jose Carlos Fajardo/Bay
Area News Group)
By MICHAEL NOWELS | mnowels@bayareanewsgroup.com | Bay Area News Group
PUBLISHED: September 29, 2022 at 4:07 p.m. | UPDATED: September 29, 2022
at 4:08 p.m.
https://www.eastbaytimes.com/2022/09/29/espn-projection-has-warriors-in-play-in-tournament-with-an-explanation/

The Warriors are the NBA’s defending champions.

Sure, they lost two rotation players from the team that won the NBA
Finals in June, but almost every championship team suffers similar
roster changes, and neither Gary Payton II nor Otto Porter Jr. was among
the inner core of the 2022 team. The pair combined for five playoff starts.

So why, then, would any projection system rate them as the eighth-best
team in the Western Conference?

That’s exactly what ESPN’s Kevin Pelton did in his projections, which
published Thursday morning. Vegas oddsmakers have the Warriors’ win
total for the upcoming season at 51.5, while the ESPN model projects
them nearly 10 wins worse, at 41.9.

But Pelton, who said he expects the Warriors to surpass that projection,
explained in his piece that he uses three years of data to create
projections. While the Warriors won the title in 2022, they lost in the
play-in tournament after the 2020-21 season and had the league’s worst
record the season before that.

So the outlier-reduction strategy to use a larger sample actually
emphasized the Warriors’ two “outlier” seasons, in this instance, as
they’ve made six of the last eight NBA Finals, but only one of the last
three.

Klay Thompson missed two consecutive seasons, Steph Curry missed most of
2019-20, and Draymond Green missed a sizable chunk of games in each of
the two down seasons. The Warriors were seeking their next iteration
after Kevin Durant’s departure.

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They found it last season, even despite the Big 3 playing just 11
regular-season minutes together.

More tweaks will have to come, as Payton’s game-changing defense (highly
valued in ESPN’s model) and Porter’s size and shooting must be replaced
somehow. Golden State appears to have slotted Donte DiVincenzo and
JaMychal Green into those spots in the rotation, for the time being,
though young guys Moses Moody and Jonathan Kuminga are likely to see
more minutes, as will James Wiseman, who missed all of last year.

And if these Warriors ever find themselves short on human haters to
motivate them, they can turn to the computers to fuel the fire.

--
Michael Nowels | Digital Sports Strategist
Mike covers sports.