should they lose to georgia in atlanta in a competitive game and finish 11-1, I think people may be underestimating them.

So there are 4 slots.

Let's give Georgia a slot. Let's also give whoever the best team in the bigten a slot.

So that leaves 2 slots left.

I think it's entirely likely that the ACC is out completely. Cross them off the list.

I think the pac12 has a decent chance to be out completely as well. Could easily see Oregon losing at least one more game for example. So cross them off the list.

So that means with two slots left there would be the Big12 and Cincinatti to deal with. I don't think it's a lock Cincinatti goes unbeaten. I also don't think it's anything close to a lock Oklahoma is 11-1 or better and big12 champ. If just one of those 2 things doesn't happen, and the big10 doesn't get a second team, then a 11-2 Alabama would be in great position to snag a spot.

I'm not saying Alabama is a lock to get a spot at 11-2 if they lose to Georgia, but this nonsense that it's very unlikely aren't correct either.

Of course we could just remove the doubt by beating Georgia(and then Georgia and Alabama both go), but thats going to be a challenge.....

On Monday, October 11, 2021 at 7:24:07 AM UTC-7, miande...@gmail.com wrote:
> should they lose to georgia in atlanta in a competitive game and finish 11-2, I think people may be underestimating them.

I think this is going to be the real sticky wicket here that's going to keep the general order of things.

> So there are 4 slots.
>
> Let's give Georgia a slot. Let's also give whoever the best team in the bigten a slot.

If Georgia is undefeated heading to Atlanta, they're in no matter what happens.

The Big Ten champion is almost certainly in.

I think people are underestimating the impact of that comeback in the Red River Shootout. That one will be the one which finishes Cincinnati off. The Big XII champion, especially if one of the Oklahoma teams goes undefeated, is in.

I think, by the time the Committee meets in December, be not surprised if an undefeated Cincinnati is 6th or 7th, just to get the point across.
> So that means with two slots left there would be the Big12 and Cincinatti to deal with. I don't think it's a lock Cincinatti goes unbeaten. I also don't think it's anything close to a lock Oklahoma is 11-1 or better and big12 champ. If just one of those 2 things doesn't happen, and the big10 doesn't get a second team, then a 11-2 Alabama would be in great position to snag a spot.

Don't flatter yourself -- this is a rigged system with ESPN pulling the strings.
Mike

is still way too early.

On Monday, October 11, 2021 at 2:13:34 PM UTC-7, leonard hofstatder wrote:
> is still way too early.

What do you mean? For Alabama, their season doesn't START until early December...

Mike (... at least it hasn't the the entire CFP situation -- in which Alabama has not been chosen the grand sum total of... ONCE.)

On Monday, October 11, 2021 at 4:12:28 PM UTC-5, Michael Falkner wrote:
> On Monday, October 11, 2021 at 7:24:07 AM UTC-7, miande...@gmail.com wrote:
> > should they lose to georgia in atlanta in a competitive game and finish 11-2, I think people may be underestimating them.
>
> I think this is going to be the real sticky wicket here that's going to keep the general order of things.
> > So there are 4 slots.
> >
> > Let's give Georgia a slot. Let's also give whoever the best team in the bigten a slot.
> If Georgia is undefeated heading to Atlanta, they're in no matter what happens.
>
> The Big Ten champion is almost certainly in.
>
> I think people are underestimating the impact of that comeback in the Red River Shootout. That one will be the one which finishes Cincinnati off. The Big XII champion, especially if one of the Oklahoma teams goes undefeated, is in.
>
> I think, by the time the Committee meets in December, be not surprised if an undefeated Cincinnati is 6th or 7th, just to get the point across.

I think if cincinatti wins out and finishes 13-0, and Alabama finishes 11-2 with a loss against Georgia in Atlanta to close things out, the pressure on the committee to put Cincy in above Alabama would
be too much. People already complain about the same teams getting in and teams like Cincy having no shot, so the committee isn't going to put an 11-2 team that didn't win it's conference over a 13-0
team that beat ND. They should because Alabama at 11-2 and one of those a loss against Georgia would still deserve it over Cincinatti and easily, but they won't unfortunately.

But there are still plenty of other ways for Bama to get in at 11-2. I don't think getting in over a 13-0 cincy will happen. (in a fair world it would of course, but life isn't fair which is ok)

On Tuesday, October 12, 2021 at 10:37:31 AM UTC-7, miande...@gmail.com wrote:

>
> But there are still plenty of other ways for Bama to get in at 11-2. I don't think getting in over a 13-0 cincy will happen. (in a fair world it would of course, but life isn't fair which is ok)

and there are plenty of way for them to not get in. We're not forgetting that Alabama escaped against Florida because of a missed extra point. A loss to Georgia in the SEC title game and they are absolutely out. If they're not already out after losing to some other so-so SEC team in conference play.

On Tuesday, October 12, 2021 at 3:15:59 PM UTC-5, Eric Ramon wrote:
> On Tuesday, October 12, 2021 at 10:37:31 AM UTC-7, miande...@gmail.com wrote:
>
> >
> > But there are still plenty of other ways for Bama to get in at 11-2. I don't think getting in over a 13-0 cincy will happen. (in a fair world it would of course, but life isn't fair which is ok)
> and there are plenty of way for them to not get in. We're not forgetting that Alabama escaped against Florida because of a missed extra point. A loss to Georgia in the SEC title game and they are absolutely out. If they're not already out after losing to some other so-so SEC team in conference play.

I didn’t watch the game, but I think it was a failed two-point try instead of a missed extra point. If the opponent fails on a two-point try then the defense deserves some credit. If the opponents miss an extra point kick, then that’s usually just luck. Also the two-point attempt wouldnt have won the game. It would have tied the game with plenty of time left for a game winning drive.

However, your overall point is correct in that there are plenty of landmines left on everyone’s schedule.

On Tuesday, October 12, 2021 at 3:45:08 PM UTC-7, Johnny RSFCootball wrote:
> On Tuesday, October 12, 2021 at 3:15:59 PM UTC-5, Eric Ramon wrote:
> > On Tuesday, October 12, 2021 at 10:37:31 AM UTC-7, miande...@gmail.com wrote:
> >
> > >
> > > But there are still plenty of other ways for Bama to get in at 11-2. I don't think getting in over a 13-0 cincy will happen. (in a fair world it would of course, but life isn't fair which is ok)
> > and there are plenty of way for them to not get in. We're not forgetting that Alabama escaped against Florida because of a missed extra point. A loss to Georgia in the SEC title game and they are absolutely out. If they're not already out after losing to some other so-so SEC team in conference play.
> I didn’t watch the game, but I think it was a failed two-point try instead of a missed extra point. If the opponent fails on a two-point try then the defense deserves some credit. If the opponents miss an extra point kick, then that’s usually just luck. Also the two-point attempt wouldnt have won the game. It would have tied the game with plenty of time left for a game winning drive.
>
> However, your overall point is correct in that there are plenty of landmines left on everyone’s schedule.

they needed to try the 2 point conversion because of an earlier missed PAT