Long, but interesting thread.

https://twitter.com/kamilkazani/status/1507819508609679364?s=21&t=lPXxCIcN-g-Wn0XAgoMW2A

tl;dr:

Russia’s economy is much more import-dependent than we realize. Even its
military factories rely on Western machinery and parts.

Putin remains popular and his cult of personality is strong. So when things
go to shit, it’s regional governors and mayors will take the blame and face
the people’s wrath.

They know this so to protect their own asses they are making their own
region’s well-being the priority over any national needs (for example
governors preventing food staples from being shipped out of their region).

Result: Russia breaks apart in de facto economic separatism. It’s still
officially one unified state but in reality not.

--
“I usually skip over your posts because of your disguistng, contrarian,
liberal personality.” — Altie

Nope. I sense an economic alliance with China, with Eurasia as the eventual stakes.

Putin gets Europe, Xi gets the rest of non-Russian Asia.

Mike

On Saturday, March 26, 2022 at 9:54:27 PM UTC-4, Michael Falkner wrote:
> Nope. I sense an economic alliance with China, with Eurasia as the eventual stakes.
>
> Putin gets Europe, Xi gets the rest of non-Russian Asia.

Not bad. Russia would be a junior partner in any alliance. The Chinese can exploit Siberia's riches better than
can the Russians. However, unless China takes the majority of the military responsibilities Putin isn't getting
any more Europe than he already has and, and probably less.

-TE

On 3/27/2022 8:31 PM, TE wrote:
> On Saturday, March 26, 2022 at 9:54:27 PM UTC-4, Michael Falkner wrote:
>> Nope. I sense an economic alliance with China, with Eurasia as the eventual stakes.
>>
>> Putin gets Europe, Xi gets the rest of non-Russian Asia.
>
> Not bad. Russia would be a junior partner in any alliance. The Chinese can exploit Siberia's riches better than
> can the Russians. However, unless China takes the majority of the military responsibilities Putin isn't getting
> any more Europe than he already has and, and probably less.
>
> -TE
China would be "tied to a corpse" but would benefit from cheap gas and
oil, as would India.

It will be interesting to see how all of the sanctions play out once the
war ends. I doubt many nations are going to welcome back Russia with
open arms.

--
"In theory, there is no difference between theory and practice. In
practice, there is." Ruben Goldberg

On Sunday, March 27, 2022 at 5:31:22 PM UTC-7, TE wrote:
> On Saturday, March 26, 2022 at 9:54:27 PM UTC-4, Michael Falkner wrote:
> > Nope. I sense an economic alliance with China, with Eurasia as the eventual stakes.
> >
> > Putin gets Europe, Xi gets the rest of non-Russian Asia.
> Not bad. Russia would be a junior partner in any alliance.

Russia would have the military might (read: nukes) to prevent Xi from getting completely out of line.

> The Chinese can exploit Siberia's riches better than
> can the Russians. However, unless China takes the majority of the military responsibilities Putin isn't getting
> any more Europe than he already has and, and probably less.

I disagree for one reason: All he's got to do is go "I got nukes and I'm going to use them, neener neener neener..." and even Biden's handlers in the WH try to walk it back as if they are saying "Please don't nuke us, Most Powerful Man In The World..."

Mike (... which Putin has been for more than a decade)

On Sunday, March 27, 2022 at 10:39:17 PM UTC-7, RoddyMcCorley wrote:

> It will be interesting to see how all of the sanctions play out once the
> war ends. I doubt many nations are going to welcome back Russia with
> open arms.

Russia's gone too far to turn back now. SOMEONE is getting nuked.

Mike

On Monday, March 28, 2022 at 12:40:55 AM UTC-7, Michael Falkner wrote:
> On Sunday, March 27, 2022 at 10:39:17 PM UTC-7, RoddyMcCorley wrote:
>
> > It will be interesting to see how all of the sanctions play out once the
> > war ends. I doubt many nations are going to welcome back Russia with
> > open arms.
> Russia's gone too far to turn back now. SOMEONE is getting nuked.

Note I did NOT necessarily say someone in the US. However, I do believe that will also be true.

There are more than a few Putin-cheerers on the far right who believe that Putin should nuke one of the major RAF bases in the UK the USA tends to use.

Good to see, though, that Biden is NOT walking back the comments, unlike some in his administration who want to make the US look like Putin's little bitch.

Mike

On 3/28/2022 5:56 PM, Michael Falkner wrote:
> On Monday, March 28, 2022 at 12:40:55 AM UTC-7, Michael Falkner wrote:
>> On Sunday, March 27, 2022 at 10:39:17 PM UTC-7, RoddyMcCorley wrote:
>>
>>> It will be interesting to see how all of the sanctions play out once the
>>> war ends. I doubt many nations are going to welcome back Russia with
>>> open arms.
>> Russia's gone too far to turn back now. SOMEONE is getting nuked.
>
> Note I did NOT necessarily say someone in the US. However, I do believe that will also be true.
>
> There are more than a few Putin-cheerers on the far right who believe that Putin should nuke one of the major RAF bases in the UK the USA tends to use.
>
> Good to see, though, that Biden is NOT walking back the comments, unlike some in his administration who want to make the US look like Putin's little bitch.
>
> Mike

IAWTP

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