As usual the idots in the mainstream sports media can't see the big picture and the actual ramifications of jockeying going forward, the position of each team, etc....so it's up to me to break it down.

tldr version: In the most likely It's likely all going to come down to Georgia vs Alabama in the seccg to determine the fate for tennessee. If Georgia wins, Tennessee likely gets an at large. So since georgia will likely be a slight favorite in that game, Tennessee is in a *very good* position now to be a non-division winner #4 seed. If Alabama wins, then Georgia likely snags that #4 seed(assuming they don't get annihilated)

Note that this is the most likely version. In this most likely version TCU doesn't go 13-0, so they are out. And clemson(despite not being very good) gets by ND and finishes 13-0, so they are in.

And of course the winner of the Bama vs Georgia/Tennessee sec title game is in. And of course the winner in the bigten title game assuming it's the Michigan/Ohio State winner is in.

So that sets three of the four(again under most likely scenario) as:
-Bama vs Georgia/Tennessee(likely Georgia) winner
-Michigan vs tOSU winner(the bigten title game is a joke this year as is usually the case)
-Clemson

Which leaves one spot.....and under this most likely scenario that's clearly going to come down to the loser of the Michigan/Ohio State game vs a 1 loss Georgia or Tennessee non-conference(and possibly non-division winner). And it's likely going to be the sec team......

In the end the Alabama/Tennessee victory at the end for Tennessee is very likely to give the Vols an at large #4 seed. I see them losing to georgia this week, and then it's just a matter of waiting and hoping Georgia beats Alabama in the sec title game. Which would put Bama out, and them likely in over the Michigan/Ohio State loser. Going to be tough, imo, for the michigan-ohio State loser to sneak in as an at large unless a lot of stuff happens.

Now what could throw a wrench in this *most likely scenario*? If TCU *and* clemson were to both win out. Right now I've got Clemson as having a better than average chance to do so and TCU unlikely to do so. But if both of those teams win out, then there is not likely to be an at large for an extra sec/bigten team to sneak in who didn't win their conference championship. And likewise if both Clemson and TCU take losses, that opens things up in an interesting way.....essentially 1 more than expected slot is created and the possibilities for that are numerous- from then the Michigan/tOSU winner being in the mix to a team like a 1 loss oregon being in the mix to a few other things.......

So what happens with TCU and clemson right now is the big wildcard. but if things play out as many expect them to, it all comes down to Tennessee waiting on the sec title game to see if Georgia wins and the sec gets 2 teams in Georgia and Tennessee, or if Alabama wins and the sec gets 2 teams in Georgia and Alabama.

What I just wrote above is *all* you need to know in terms of how this is likely to play out. The fact that the mainstream sports media can't see this is typical of them......so you're welcome. And save this to reference later.

....says the guy who was convinced in 2017 that Alabama would be left out of the playoff - in fact, didn't you bet on that?

Then again, we (and pretty much everybody else on the planet, from what I can tell) do seem to agree that:
1. The SEC champion is in
2. The Michigan/Ohio State winner is in, if it wins the Big 10 championship as well
3. Clemson is in if it runs the table

If Alabama beats Tennessee and then loses to Georgia in the SEC championship, and Ohio State beats Michigan, I think Tennessee gets #4, the way Alabama "worked its way back up" in 2017.
If Michigan beats Ohio State, it is a one-loss Ohio State against a one-loss Tennessee, and with (a) Tennessee being the committee's preferred team at the moment and (b) Ohio State's loss being at home while Tennessee's would be in Athens, Tennessee probably does get the nod. I don't see the "need" to let a 13-0 TCU in if there are already three undefeated teams in the playoff.

I think the one real wild card is Clemson - if it loses, and Georgia and Ohio State both win out, then it's Georgia, Ohio State, Tennessee...and a 1-loss Michigan, whose loss was in Columbus to the #2 team, against an undefeated TCU, assuming it wins out. The committee is "supposed to" take conference championships into account, and neither team's strength of schedule outside of Ohio State is much to talk about; choosing TCU also reduces the chance of a conference rematch in the championship game.

Of course, a lot of things depend on Alabama getting by LSU first, and then Mississippi. If LSU upsets Alabama, it controls its destiny; otherwise, the Alabama-Mississippi winner does.

On Wednesday, November 2, 2022 at 12:50:35 PM UTC-5, The NOTBCS Guy wrote:
> ...says the guy who was convinced in 2017 that Alabama would be left out of the playoff - in fact, didn't you bet on that?
>
> Then again, we (and pretty much everybody else on the planet, from what I can tell) do seem to agree that:
> 1. The SEC champion is in
> 2. The Michigan/Ohio State winner is in, if it wins the Big 10 championship as well
> 3. Clemson is in if it runs the table
>
> If Alabama beats Tennessee and then loses to Georgia in the SEC championship, and Ohio State beats Michigan, I think Tennessee gets #4, the way Alabama "worked its way back up" in 2017.
> If Michigan beats Ohio State, it is a one-loss Ohio State against a one-loss Tennessee, and with (a) Tennessee being the committee's preferred team at the moment and (b) Ohio State's loss being at home while Tennessee's would be in Athens, Tennessee probably does get the nod. I don't see the "need" to let a 13-0 TCU in if there are already three undefeated teams in the playoff.

This is a big error on your part- the big12 may not have superstar power at the top, but it's insanely deep. They are already #3 in terms of strength of record. If they beat Texas Tech, Texas, Baylor, and Iowa State and win the big12 title game(which they won't; going 3-2 in those 5 games is the most likely outcome and going 4-1 would be exceptional for them) they are in. No doubt about it. And they would be at worst a 3 seed.

I don't see them going 5-0 in the next 5 games. They just aren't good enough. But they certainly control their own destiny
at this point.

>
> I think the one real wild card is Clemson - if it loses, and Georgia and Ohio State both win out, then it's Georgia, Ohio State, Tennessee...and a 1-loss Michigan, whose loss was in Columbus to the #2 team, against an undefeated TCU, assuming it wins out. The committee is "supposed to" take conference championships into account, and neither team's strength of schedule outside of Ohio State is much to talk about; choosing TCU also reduces the chance of a conference rematch in the championship game.

an undefeated TCU is without question in. Hell they may even move all the way up to a 2 seed or so depending on what else happened. Again its not going to happen, but if it does that's a slot gone(and it probably will end up costing the Michigan/Ohio State loser a slot)

>
> Of course, a lot of things depend on Alabama getting by LSU first, and then Mississippi. If LSU upsets Alabama, it controls its destiny; otherwise, the Alabama-Mississippi winner does.

well yeah....but alabama is like a 13 pt favorite or so tommorrow. Obviously if 2 TD upset losses start to happen, then these 'most likely' scenarios are out.

Right now the following teams control their own destiny: Alabama, Georgia, Tennessee, Michigan, Ohio State, TCU, clemson.
It's tempting to add LSU right now(until saturday at least), but there is a scenario I believe where 1 loss tennessee can get in over 2 loss LSU that beats Georgia in the sec title game. Just because they annihilated them in baton rouge earlier hth and have the 1 loss......

I view the wild card as more clemson vs TCU. Just because with 5 games left I believe it's too early to start giving serious consideration to them going 5-0. Win a few more games and then let's start considering it more. Clemson, otoh, has a great chance to finish unbeaten. not because they are good but because the rest of the schedule is so bad.

But I think that outside of your error in thinking TCU doesn't definitely control their own destiny, you're mostly on track. Again the big picture is that in most likely scenarios going forward(ie Clemson does go unbeaten but TCU doesn't, 1 loss Bama meets unbeaten Georgia in the sec title game), it's all going to come down to Tennessee watching the sec title game and rooting for Georgia so that they can get the 2nd sec bid as the #4 seed.

On Wednesday, November 2, 2022 at 2:31:18 PM UTC-5, michael anderson wrote:
> On Wednesday, November 2, 2022 at 12:50:35 PM UTC-5, The NOTBCS Guy wrote:
> > ...says the guy who was convinced in 2017 that Alabama would be left out of the playoff - in fact, didn't you bet on that?
> >
> > Then again, we (and pretty much everybody else on the planet, from what I can tell) do seem to agree that:
> > 1. The SEC champion is in
> > 2. The Michigan/Ohio State winner is in, if it wins the Big 10 championship as well
> > 3. Clemson is in if it runs the table
> >
> > If Alabama beats Tennessee and then loses to Georgia in the SEC championship, and Ohio State beats Michigan, I think Tennessee gets #4, the way Alabama "worked its way back up" in 2017.
> > If Michigan beats Ohio State, it is a one-loss Ohio State against a one-loss Tennessee, and with (a) Tennessee being the committee's preferred team at the moment and (b) Ohio State's loss being at home while Tennessee's would be in Athens, Tennessee probably does get the nod. I don't see the "need" to let a 13-0 TCU in if there are already three undefeated teams in the playoff.
> This is a big error on your part- the big12 may not have superstar power at the top, but it's insanely deep. They are already #3 in terms of strength of record. If they beat Texas Tech, Texas, Baylor, and Iowa State and win the big12 title game(which they won't; going 3-2 in those 5 games is the most likely outcome and going 4-1 would be exceptional for them) they are in.. No doubt about it. And they would be at worst a 3 seed.
>
> I don't see them going 5-0 in the next 5 games. They just aren't good enough. But they certainly control their own destiny
> at this point.
> >
> > I think the one real wild card is Clemson - if it loses, and Georgia and Ohio State both win out, then it's Georgia, Ohio State, Tennessee...and a 1-loss Michigan, whose loss was in Columbus to the #2 team, against an undefeated TCU, assuming it wins out. The committee is "supposed to" take conference championships into account, and neither team's strength of schedule outside of Ohio State is much to talk about; choosing TCU also reduces the chance of a conference rematch in the championship game.
> an undefeated TCU is without question in. Hell they may even move all the way up to a 2 seed or so depending on what else happened. Again its not going to happen, but if it does that's a slot gone(and it probably will end up costing the Michigan/Ohio State loser a slot)

sorry, mental error. In the case of both clemson(good chance) and TCU(not so good chance) finishing 13-0, TCU doing so would cost Tennessee/Georgia a slot. If as expected TCU gets tripped up but clemson runs the table at 13-0, Clemson is essentially taking the Michigan/tOSU loser's slot.

if you are a Michigan or tOSU fan(especially Michigan), you are a HUUUGE Notre Dame fan this weekend.

On Wednesday, November 2, 2022 at 9:43:57 AM UTC-7, miande...@gmail.com wrote:

> tldr version: In the most likely It's likely all going to come down to Georgia vs Alabama in the seccg to determine the fate for tennessee. If Georgia wins, Tennessee likely gets an at large. So since georgia will likely be a slight favorite in that game, Tennessee is in a *very good* position now to be a non-division winner #4 seed. If Alabama wins, then Georgia likely snags that #4 seed(assuming they don't get annihilated)

So you're thinking three SECs, as long as two other teams don't go undefeated -- because I think it's clear the "eye test" has it that Georgia and Alabama, at minimum, are the two best teams in the land.
> Note that this is the most likely version. In this most likely version TCU doesn't go 13-0, so they are out. And clemson(despite not being very good) gets by ND and finishes 13-0, so they are in.
>
> And of course the winner of the Bama vs Georgia/Tennessee sec title game is in. And of course the winner in the bigten title game assuming it's the Michigan/Ohio State winner is in.

OK, I take that back.
What the mainstream sports media is trying to do is make college football relevant, which it is not. That we are even talking Tennessee is more than you should be asking for.

Mike

I think if you truly looked at the eye test, what you'd really hope for the four best teams is that only Ohio State goes undefeated, Alabama narrowly beats Georgia next month, Alabama narrowly beats Tennessee on Saturday, and you get

1. Ohio State
2. Alabama
3. Tennessee
4. Georgia

Mike

On Wednesday, November 2, 2022 at 2:50:35 PM UTC-5, Michael Falkner wrote:
> On Wednesday, November 2, 2022 at 9:43:57 AM UTC-7, miande...@gmail.com wrote:
>
> > tldr version: In the most likely It's likely all going to come down to Georgia vs Alabama in the seccg to determine the fate for tennessee. If Georgia wins, Tennessee likely gets an at large. So since georgia will likely be a slight favorite in that game, Tennessee is in a *very good* position now to be a non-division winner #4 seed. If Alabama wins, then Georgia likely snags that #4 seed(assuming they don't get annihilated)
> So you're thinking three SECs, as long as two other teams don't go undefeated -- because I think it's clear the "eye test" has it that Georgia and Alabama, at minimum, are the two best teams in the land.

no, you aren't reading my post.

Assuming georgia beats tennessee and alabama wins the west with 1 loss, then it will be alabama vs georgia in the sec title game.

Winner is in obviously. If georgia wins, then alabama isn't getting a slot and the two teams will be georgia and likely tennessee.
If Alabama wins, then the two teams will likely be Alabama and Georgia.

The winner of this ga/tenn game in 2 days can essentially clinch a playoff spot *if* clemson and tcu don't then both win out and go 13-0.

On Wednesday, November 2, 2022 at 2:53:07 PM UTC-5, Michael Falkner wrote:
> I think if you truly looked at the eye test, what you'd really hope for the four best teams is that only Ohio State goes undefeated, Alabama narrowly beats Georgia next month, Alabama narrowly beats Tennessee on Saturday, and you get
>
> 1. Ohio State
> 2. Alabama
> 3. Tennessee
> 4. Georgia

this is theoretically possible, but a lot has to happen. And in that scenario georgia would probably be the 3 and not
tennessee.

>
> Mike

On Wednesday, November 2, 2022 at 3:36:59 PM UTC-4, miande...@gmail.com wrote:

I must say you guys do some deep-dive analysis on the play off possibilities.
It's very interesting but a little too complicated for me. I just focus on
three (3) things.

1. I want Ohio State to win every game they play.
2. I want Michigan to lose every time they play Ohio State.
3. I want the Alabama Crimson Shit Kickers to lose every time they play any one.

Irish Mike

4. I want Nick Saban's pick up truck to have 4 flat tires.