I can see the CFP guy explaining it. "Yes, they lost but it was very, very close"

On Saturday, November 5, 2022 at 10:11:17 PM UTC-5, Eric Ramon wrote:
> I can see the CFP guy explaining it. "Yes, they lost but it was very, very close"

it wouldn't have mattered anyways since(had alabama kept winning) they would have played georgia in the sec title game
and everyone would agree that had they beaten georgia to win the sec and finished 12-1 they would easily be in. Like last year.

You worrying about such a thing weeks before it actually matters when there are meaningful games left that will determine everything
is silly.

BTW teams like Oregon now(with clemson losing) now have hope.

It's pretty clear now that:

1) barring a major upset *before* the sec title game, georgia has clinched a playoff slot.
2) barring a major upset over their last 3 games, Tennessee has perhaps not clinched a playoff slot at 11-1 but is in a *really really
good* slot. Like Tennessee's chances to make the cfp right now are *much better* than they were before the day started.

I think when TCU loses that will open up another slot as well.

So right now Georgia and Tennessee have basically clinched slots.....along with the Michigan/tOSU winner.

That leaves one slot left. If TCU goes unbeaten they get it. If LSU shocks the world, goes 11-2 and wins the sec by beating
georgia, they will likely get a lot and Tennessee might be out(that and TCU going 13-0 is basically the only thing that
keeps tennessee out)

But once TCU loses, teams like Oregon and USC(whichever one of them can go 12-1 and win the pac12 title...but of course usc needs a little help i think) are going to be battling with the loser of the Michigan/tosu loser to get the final seed.

What you say......a theoretical 12-1 pac title winner in Oregon vs an 11-1 Michigan(whose only loss came to tOSU)? Who deserves the
the final bid in that scenario?

> What you say......a theoretical 12-1 pac title winner in Oregon vs an 11-1 Michigan(whose only loss came to tOSU)? Who deserves the
> the final bid in that scenario?

That's an easy one.
Oregon's loss would be to presumably #1 Georgia; Michigan's, to presumably #2 Ohio State.
Also, in the past, the committee has tended to favor conference champions. Oregon would get it.

On Saturday, November 5, 2022 at 11:08:33 PM UTC-5, The NOTBCS Guy wrote:
> > What you say......a theoretical 12-1 pac title winner in Oregon vs an 11-1 Michigan(whose only loss came to tOSU)? Who deserves the
> > the final bid in that scenario?
> That's an easy one.
> Oregon's loss would be to presumably #1 Georgia; Michigan's, to presumably #2 Ohio State.

little difference there, but what may be some difference is the nature of the losses. If Michigan loses a close game on the road at tOSU, thats obviously very different than 49-3.

> Also, in the past, the committee has tended to favor conference champions. Oregon would get it.

I tend to agree....give MIchigan a decent ooc win and it becomes interesting.....but they don't have that.

On Saturday, November 5, 2022 at 9:32:24 PM UTC-7, miande...@gmail.com wrote:
> On Saturday, November 5, 2022 at 11:08:33 PM UTC-5, The NOTBCS Guy wrote:
> > > What you say......a theoretical 12-1 pac title winner in Oregon vs an 11-1 Michigan(whose only loss came to tOSU)? Who deserves the
> > > the final bid in that scenario?
> > That's an easy one.
> > Oregon's loss would be to presumably #1 Georgia; Michigan's, to presumably #2 Ohio State.
> little difference there, but what may be some difference is the nature of the losses. If Michigan loses a close game on the road at tOSU, thats obviously very different than 49-3.
> > Also, in the past, the committee has tended to favor conference champions. Oregon would get it.
> I tend to agree....give MIchigan a decent ooc win and it becomes interesting.....but they don't have that.

I don't think there's a chance Oregon would be in the top 4. That shellacking was too much. Had it been just an ordinary beatdown, 45-20, say, that'd be different.

On Sunday, November 6, 2022 at 1:09:56 AM UTC-5, Eric Ramon wrote:
> On Saturday, November 5, 2022 at 9:32:24 PM UTC-7, miande...@gmail.com wrote:
> > On Saturday, November 5, 2022 at 11:08:33 PM UTC-5, The NOTBCS Guy wrote:
> > > > What you say......a theoretical 12-1 pac title winner in Oregon vs an 11-1 Michigan(whose only loss came to tOSU)? Who deserves the
> > > > the final bid in that scenario?
> > > That's an easy one.
> > > Oregon's loss would be to presumably #1 Georgia; Michigan's, to presumably #2 Ohio State.
> > little difference there, but what may be some difference is the nature of the losses. If Michigan loses a close game on the road at tOSU, thats obviously very different than 49-3.
> > > Also, in the past, the committee has tended to favor conference champions. Oregon would get it.
> > I tend to agree....give MIchigan a decent ooc win and it becomes interesting.....but they don't have that.
> I don't think there's a chance Oregon would be in the top 4. That shellacking was too much. Had it been just an ordinary beatdown, 45-20, say, that'd be different.

but things look like they may be breaking to give them a chance. You have a point on how bad the game 1, but when you compare 11-1 Michigan and 12-1 Oregon here is also what you get:

-Penn State and Illinois will be Michigan's 'best' wins. And really their only two respectable wins. Illinois? yuck....
-Colorado State, Hawaii, and Uconn are Michigan's ooc schedule. Double yuck....
-Oregon will have conference wins over UCLA, Utah, and then either Utah or USC/Utah again/UCLA(USC would be most helpful). Is that
great? No....but they are competing with a fairly flawed Michigan resume
-Oregon will have a conference title and 12 game win streak. Michigan will not even have made their
conference championship game.

Also keep in mind that terrible loss to UGA *will* hurt and penalize Oregon in comparison to say.....Tennessee. That's why Tennessee
has clinched a playoff spot and an 11-1 Tennessee will be ranked above in the playoffs than 12-1 Oregon.

But Michigan? No.....Michigan doesn't have victories over Alabama and LSU.

On Saturday, November 5, 2022 at 11:11:17 PM UTC-4, Eric Ramon wrote:
> I can see the CFP guy explaining it. "Yes, they lost but it was very, very close"

Never, ever underestimate the crooked crap that goes
on with theAlabama Crimson Shit Kickers and the SEC.
Wouldn't surprise me a bit if Alabama gets ranked #1 and
the National Playoffs are all played on Alabama's home field.

Irish Mike

On Saturday, November 5, 2022 at 11:09:56 PM UTC-7, Eric Ramon wrote:

> I don't think there's a chance Oregon would be in the top 4. That shellacking was too much. Had it been just an ordinary beatdown, 45-20, say, that'd be different.

It is looking, more and more, that Georgia is AT LEAST 14 better than everyone else in the country -- that shellacking may, in fact, be indicative of the current reality.

They may get to the top 4 because you eventually have to have 4.

Mike

Going by the 11/8 CFP rankings, it looks like the committee is penciling in, assuming they win out:
Georgia
Ohio State
Tennessee
Oregon
If USC beats Oregon in the Pac-12 championship game, I think Michigan gets the #4 spot over USC and LSU (especially if LSU loses to Georgia in the SEC championship).
Of course, if TCU does manage to win out, it gets in at #3 - well, it probably should be #3, but there's no way they're going to put Georgia against Tennessee in a semi-final, so either Tennessee jumps over TCU into #3, or they will find an excuse to move Ohio State over Georgia into #1.

On 2022-11-09, The NOTBCS Guy <don.p.del.grande@gmail.com> wrote:
> Going by the 11/8 CFP rankings, it looks like the committee is penciling in, assuming they win out:
> Georgia
> Ohio State
> Tennessee
> Oregon
> If USC beats Oregon in the Pac-12 championship game, I think Michigan gets the #4 spot over USC and LSU (especially if LSU loses to Georgia in the SEC championship).
> Of course, if TCU does manage to win out, it gets in at #3 - well, it probably should be #3, but there's no way they're going to put Georgia against Tennessee in a semi-final,

I don't know why you say that. Seems to me they'd rematch it there
instead of (potentially) in the final.

> so either Tennessee jumps over TCU into #3, or they will find an
> excuse to move Ohio State over Georgia into #1.

I don't think they'd mess with it.

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