when you have the ball, there are about 2 minutes remaining, the other
team has timeouts, and you are up less than a score(especially less than a fg)

You *NEED* to do everything you can to pick up 1 first down to win the game..

Baylor and Illinois in these cases both ran very conservative running plays 5/6 times into stacked lines.....essentially not even making an effort to pick up a first down that would have won the game.

When you are the team with the ball ahead by 1-2 pts in that situation, you have to look at it like this: If we don't get a first down, WE WILL LOSE

Illinois and Baylor both played very conservatively, went against analytics, and earned well deserved losses.

And then after the game both teams radio commentators were like "well we lost the game because we couldn't stop them at the end".......

NO NO NO NO NO NO NO

You lost the game on offense when you couldn't get a first down and punted the ball back to a team. Keep in mind in these situations the other team is going to use all 4 downs......if there is plenty of time(and there was in both cases), a team with 4 downs in college football today is likely going to get 30-40 yards in these situations.

In baylor's case, the right play would have actually been to go for it on the 4th down.

Just horrible horrible horrible strategy by both teams. This idea that the team ahead by 1-2 pts with a couple minutes left to go in the game should play conservatively to make the other team "burn their timeouts" is WRONG. There is too much time left to do that, and you'll lose.

The analytical play is that you have to do whatever you can to convert one first down and win the game.

The craziest thing is I was listening to the Baylor radio play by play and they were like "good strategy, we've made them burn their timeouts and now TCU only has a minute 35 seconds left and no timeouts". Ummmmm......1:35
in college football only needing 35-40 yards? And 4 downs to lose? Thats a TERRIBLE position for Baylor(and Illinois) to put themselves in......

Just horrific.

The crazy thing is if Baylor had gone for it on that last 4th down on their 26 and not gotten it, Aranda would have been crucified. in reality, he should be crucified for what he did.

The tldr version: When teams are up 1-2 late in the game and the other team will get the ball back with 45 seconds or more if they get a stop, you *HAVE* to do everything you possibly can to get that first down to win the game......