So, I guess we should start by looking at the undefeated and 1-loss teams:

Undefeated:
Georgia
Ohio State
Michigan
TCU

1-loss:
USC
Clemson

If the playoffs were today, it would be an easy call for the 4 undefeated teams. But Ohio State still plays Michigan, meaning that will be down to 3 undefeated teams at most.

Here's how I see it with these:
Georgia - would have to lose to both Georgia Tech and LSU do miss the playoffs.
Ohio State / Michigan - winner should be in, even with loss in Big Ten title game. Loser? It's going to depend on how close, and what else happens.
TCU - Justified or not, I think TCU is going to have to beat both Iowa State and then K-State/Texas in the Big 12 title game to make their spot. A loss, and the committee will justify their exclusion with that loss and all the narrow games.

So what of USC and Clemson? Should USC knock off Notre Dame win the Pac-12 championship game (most likely against Oregon), I think that would be enough to get them in over the Michigan / Ohio State loser, assuming the others stay undefeated. Any loss is going to knock them out. With Clemson's big loss to Notre Dame, and the rest of the ACC just not looking good this year, I'm just not sure there is any real justification for 1-loss Clemson over 1-loss Michigan / 1-loss Ohio State or even the 2-loss SEC teams. The one thing they would have going for them? History.

On Sunday, November 20, 2022 at 8:23:08 AM UTC-6, JGibson wrote:
> So, I guess we should start by looking at the undefeated and 1-loss teams:
>
> Undefeated:
> Georgia
> Ohio State
> Michigan
> TCU
>
> 1-loss:
> USC
> Clemson
>
> If the playoffs were today, it would be an easy call for the 4 undefeated teams. But Ohio State still plays Michigan, meaning that will be down to 3 undefeated teams at most.
>
> Here's how I see it with these:
> Georgia - would have to lose to both Georgia Tech and LSU do miss the playoffs.
> Ohio State / Michigan - winner should be in, even with loss in Big Ten title game. Loser? It's going to depend on how close, and what else happens.
> TCU - Justified or not, I think TCU is going to have to beat both Iowa State and then K-State/Texas in the Big 12 title game to make their spot. A loss, and the committee will justify their exclusion with that loss and all the narrow games.
>
> So what of USC and Clemson? Should USC knock off Notre Dame win the Pac-12 championship game (most likely against Oregon), I think that would be enough to get them in over the Michigan / Ohio State loser, assuming the others stay undefeated. Any loss is going to knock them out. With Clemson's big loss to Notre Dame, and the rest of the ACC just not looking good this year, I'm just not sure there is any real justification for 1-loss Clemson over 1-loss Michigan / 1-loss Ohio State or even the 2-loss SEC teams. The one thing they would have going for them? History.

I don't neccessarily disagree on Clemson, but really what would a 1 loss Michigan bring to the table?

they would be asking that Penn State win to do *a lot* of work.......more than it is worth in my opinion.....because that's really all they would have.. Michigan's ooc schedule is disastrous.....if there was something there.....anything there..even a 7-5 type mediocre power 5 team.....I might have more sympathy for their case.

Yes clemson wouldn't have much either because the ACC is so poor, but at least they would have a conference title.

I actually think TCU if they go 12-0 and lose to a very good k-state team deserves it more than 1 loss michigan. The committee is unlikely to agree, and I think Michigan is in good shape should they lose a sorta close game to Ohio state and one of USC and TCU loses another game. Which is likely.....they chances of USC and Kstate going 4-0 in their remaining 4 games combined(all losable, even the Iowa State
game) is very very small. So Michigan is in good shape. I suppose if Michigan gets blown out and Clemson blows out UNC clemson may sneak in......

Honestly, assuming TCU doesn't go 13-0 which nobody seems to think they will, this is a year the committee would do best
to cut the playoffs to two teams and just have georgia(assuming they beat LSU) and the Ohio State/Michigan winner play.

One team you didn't mention specifically is LSU. They control their own destiny. They would be no worse than the 4 seed if they upset georgia. And a 3 seed if TCU loses to kstate as is likely. A 2 loss LSU jumps/stays ahead of USC even if they win out, and they easily jump Michigan if Michigan loses to Ohio State.

But I don't think there is much of a chance LSU upsets Georgia, so Michigan and USC shouldn't worry too much. The most likely scenario that leaves Michigan out is both USC and TCU winning out....but again I just don't see those teams going 4-0 with 4 losable games left.