so with LSU losing tonight(they had controlled their own destiny, although beating Georgia was always going to be a longshot anyways) as well as clemson losing earlier, it's clear that only 5 teams are in contention for the playoffs: Georgia, Michigan, TCU, USC, Ohio State.

It's tempting to say well what if Kansas State blows out TCU by 35 or so?(which is not out of the question, thats a very good matchup for Kstate)

The problem with that is I just don't see how you slot kstate above tcu even if that whoop them. That would just bring the season series between those teams to 1-1. Yes, perhaps the second more recent win is given more importance with it being more recent and a conference title game, but so much importance to make it for 12-1 vs 11-2? I just don't see it....even if Kstate does whoop them and the feeling is that kstate is the superior team, I still don't see how they jump tcu.

So of the 5 still in contention, 2 obviously have locked up bids- Georgia and Michigan.

So TCU, USC, and Ohio State are playing for 2 bids.

Of those three, it's TCU and USC that clearly control their own destiny.

So why do I say tOSU is in good shape? Because kstate is likely to beat
TCU(perhaps badly), and even if TCU does find a way to win one more time there is no guarantee a very flawed USC team beats Oregon or Utah.

So Ohio State is still looking good.....they still have a 70% chance or so(probably a little higher) to make the playoffs because that is the chance that either TCU or USC loses their conference title game.

So that means....

TCU- gets in by beating Kstate. Or alternatively can get in with a USC loss
USC- gets in by winning pac12 title game(either utah or Oregon).
Ohio State- gets in with a loss by either TCU or USC in conference title game

And those three scenarios above are *ALL* you need to know about the playoff scenarios. The mainstream sports media will no doubt do a lot of useless bloviating about what could/should happen for the playoff scenarios going forward, but the above is all it comes down to....

On Saturday, November 26, 2022 at 10:21:13 PM UTC-5, miande...@gmail.com wrote:
> so with LSU losing tonight(they had controlled their own destiny, although beating Georgia was always going to be a longshot anyways) as well as clemson losing earlier, it's clear that only 5 teams are in contention for the playoffs: Georgia, Michigan, TCU, USC, Ohio State.
>
> It's tempting to say well what if Kansas State blows out TCU by 35 or so?(which is not out of the question, thats a very good matchup for Kstate)
>
> The problem with that is I just don't see how you slot kstate above tcu even if that whoop them. That would just bring the season series between those teams to 1-1. Yes, perhaps the second more recent win is given more importance with it being more recent and a conference title game, but so much importance to make it for 12-1 vs 11-2? I just don't see it....even if Kstate does whoop them and the feeling is that kstate is the superior team, I still don't see how they jump tcu.
>
> So of the 5 still in contention, 2 obviously have locked up bids- Georgia and Michigan.
>
> So TCU, USC, and Ohio State are playing for 2 bids.
>
> Of those three, it's TCU and USC that clearly control their own destiny.
>
> So why do I say tOSU is in good shape? Because kstate is likely to beat
> TCU(perhaps badly), and even if TCU does find a way to win one more time there is no guarantee a very flawed USC team beats Oregon or Utah.
>
> So Ohio State is still looking good.....they still have a 70% chance or so(probably a little higher) to make the playoffs because that is the chance that either TCU or USC loses their conference title game.
>
> So that means....
>
> TCU- gets in by beating Kstate. Or alternatively can get in with a USC loss
> USC- gets in by winning pac12 title game(either utah or Oregon).
> Ohio State- gets in with a loss by either TCU or USC in conference title game
>
> And those three scenarios above are *ALL* you need to know about the playoff scenarios. The mainstream sports media will no doubt do a lot of useless bloviating about what could/should happen for the playoff scenarios going forward, but the above is all it comes down to....

Good analysis. I think you are probably right about about Ohio State
but Buckeye fans are still in so much shock and disbelief that
they aren't thinking that far ahead.

I heard Kirk Herbstreit make a similar analysis but he
put Alabama ahead of OSU, even though they have
two loses. Of course, Herbstreit will pick just about
any team over Ohio State.

Irish Mike

On Saturday, November 26, 2022 at 10:21:13 PM UTC-5, michael anderson wrote:
> so with LSU losing tonight(they had controlled their own destiny, although beating Georgia was always going to be a longshot anyways) as well as clemson losing earlier, it's clear that only 5 teams are in contention for the playoffs: Georgia, Michigan, TCU, USC, Ohio State.
>
> It's tempting to say well what if Kansas State blows out TCU by 35 or so?(which is not out of the question, thats a very good matchup for Kstate)
>
> The problem with that is I just don't see how you slot kstate above tcu even if that whoop them. That would just bring the season series between those teams to 1-1. Yes, perhaps the second more recent win is given more importance with it being more recent and a conference title game, but so much importance to make it for 12-1 vs 11-2? I just don't see it....even if Kstate does whoop them and the feeling is that kstate is the superior team, I still don't see how they jump tcu.
>
> So of the 5 still in contention, 2 obviously have locked up bids- Georgia and Michigan.
>
> So TCU, USC, and Ohio State are playing for 2 bids.
>
> Of those three, it's TCU and USC that clearly control their own destiny.
>
> So why do I say tOSU is in good shape? Because kstate is likely to beat
> TCU(perhaps badly), and even if TCU does find a way to win one more time there is no guarantee a very flawed USC team beats Oregon or Utah.
>
> So Ohio State is still looking good.....they still have a 70% chance or so(probably a little higher) to make the playoffs because that is the chance that either TCU or USC loses their conference title game.
>
> So that means....
>
> TCU- gets in by beating Kstate. Or alternatively can get in with a USC loss
> USC- gets in by winning pac12 title game(either utah or Oregon).
> Ohio State- gets in with a loss by either TCU or USC in conference title game
>
> And those three scenarios above are *ALL* you need to know about the playoff scenarios. The mainstream sports media will no doubt do a lot of useless bloviating about what could/should happen for the playoff scenarios going forward, but the above is all it comes down to....

oops....I made a rare mistake and somehow was writing about Kstate as if they had 2 losses rather than the 3 they have. Forgot about the tulane game. I think kstate would demolish them now but given that really really really bad loss, they are out even if they blow TCU out(which I don't rule out).

I think the only selection intrigue would be if TCU loses a very close game to Kansas State that is well played by them. Or at least thought to be. I think if that is the case one could certainly make an argument for TCU to get in over Ohio State, but in the end I think Ohio State and their road win in Happy valley is enough at 11-1 to get in over 12-1 TCU.

I just hate to see a team punished for losing in a conference title game *relative* to another team who just sat at home and leapfrogged them because they didn't make their conference title game. Which may well be the case here. But oh well.....