Now that the trucker protest is over, the world has gone to war. I think they need some hot tub truckers in Donetsk to save the world. Oddly, the UCL is still playing during this war, seems unsafe, though I guess the Russians have not made the English Channel yet. The big question is Jonathan David playing and will he be able to safely return to Canada.

E. Mendy - Christensen, Thiago Silva, Rüdiger - Azpilicueta, Kanté, Kovacic, Marcos Alonso - Ziyech, Havertz, Pulisic

Leo Jardim - Celik, José Fonte, Botman, Tiago Djalo - A. Onana, Xeka, André - Renato Sanches, David, J. Bamba

On Tuesday, February 22, 2022 at 7:57:10 PM UTC, Binder Dundat wrote:
> Now that the trucker protest is over, the world has gone to war. I think they need some hot tub truckers in Donetsk to save the world. Oddly, the UCL is still playing during this war, seems unsafe, though I guess the Russians have not made the English Channel yet. The big question is Jonathan David playing and will he be able to safely return to Canada.
>
> E. Mendy - Christensen, Thiago Silva, Rüdiger - Azpilicueta, Kanté, Kovacic, Marcos Alonso - Ziyech, Havertz, Pulisic
>
>
> Leo Jardim - Celik, José Fonte, Botman, Tiago Djalo - A. Onana, Xeka, André - Renato Sanches, David, J. Bamba

I’m very disappointed that Lukaku wasn’t picked.

He cost me over 10 million in fantasy football!

What don’t they ever consider the fantasy managers? :(

RM

Putin's Chelsea attacked quickly and scored early, Lille defended the early attacks and the freedom fighters have done OK since the early Russian attacks
CHE 1 - 0 LOSC 57 min

I am hoping some rapid sanctions even this match out soon

On Tuesday, February 22, 2022 at 4:04:56 p.m. UTC-5, Real Mardin wrote:
> On Tuesday, February 22, 2022 at 7:57:10 PM UTC, Binder Dundat wrote:
> > Now that the trucker protest is over, the world has gone to war. I think they need some hot tub truckers in Donetsk to save the world. Oddly, the UCL is still playing during this war, seems unsafe, though I guess the Russians have not made the English Channel yet. The big question is Jonathan David playing and will he be able to safely return to Canada.
> >
> > E. Mendy - Christensen, Thiago Silva, Rüdiger - Azpilicueta, Kanté, Kovacic, Marcos Alonso - Ziyech, Havertz, Pulisic
> >
> >
> > Leo Jardim - Celik, José Fonte, Botman, Tiago Djalo - A. Onana, Xeka, André - Renato Sanches, David, J. Bamba
> I’m very disappointed that Lukaku wasn’t picked.
>
> He cost me over 10 million in fantasy football!
>
> What don’t they ever consider the fantasy managers? :(
>
> RM

On Tuesday, February 22, 2022 at 10:14:55 PM UTC+1, Binder Dundat wrote:
> Putin's Chelsea attacked quickly and scored early, Lille defended the early attacks and the freedom fighters have done OK since the early Russian attacks
> CHE 1 - 0 LOSC 57 min
>
> I am hoping some rapid sanctions even this match out soon

Watching Juve concede the equaliser I keep thinking - if you just sit back and defend, shouldn't you at least sit back and, well, defend?

Ciao,
Werner

On Tuesday, February 22, 2022 at 4:04:56 PM UTC-5, Real Mardin wrote:
> On Tuesday, February 22, 2022 at 7:57:10 PM UTC, Binder Dundat wrote:
> > Now that the trucker protest is over, the world has gone to war. I think they need some hot tub truckers in Donetsk to save the world. Oddly, the UCL is still playing during this war, seems unsafe, though I guess the Russians have not made the English Channel yet. The big question is Jonathan David playing and will he be able to safely return to Canada.
> >
> > E. Mendy - Christensen, Thiago Silva, Rüdiger - Azpilicueta, Kanté, Kovacic, Marcos Alonso - Ziyech, Havertz, Pulisic
> >
> >
> > Leo Jardim - Celik, José Fonte, Botman, Tiago Djalo - A. Onana, Xeka, André - Renato Sanches, David, J. Bamba
> I’m very disappointed that Lukaku wasn’t picked.
>
> He cost me over 10 million in fantasy football!
>
> What don’t they ever consider the fantasy managers? :(

In no walk of life have I felt my needs more disregarded by the higher powers than as a fantasy football manager.

On Tuesday, February 22, 2022 at 4:26:39 PM UTC-5, Werner Pichler wrote:
> On Tuesday, February 22, 2022 at 10:14:55 PM UTC+1, Binder Dundat wrote:
> > Putin's Chelsea attacked quickly and scored early, Lille defended the early attacks and the freedom fighters have done OK since the early Russian attacks
> > CHE 1 - 0 LOSC 57 min
> >
> > I am hoping some rapid sanctions even this match out soon
> Watching Juve concede the equaliser I keep thinking - if you just sit back and defend, shouldn't you at least sit back and, well, defend?

Football and Rabiot suck, but Vlahovic is decent.

On Tuesday, February 22, 2022 at 4:14:55 p.m. UTC-5, Binder Dundat wrote:
> Putin's Chelsea attacked quickly and scored early, Lille defended the early attacks and the freedom fighters have done OK since the early Russian attacks
> CHE 1 - 0 LOSC 57 min
>
> I am hoping some rapid sanctions even this match out soon

Lille waving the white flag in the 81 min. David coming off,
Che 2 - 0 Lille

Chelsea seem to be quite good at the Canadian Catenaccio

> On Tuesday, February 22, 2022 at 4:04:56 p.m. UTC-5, Real Mardin wrote:
> > On Tuesday, February 22, 2022 at 7:57:10 PM UTC, Binder Dundat wrote:
> > > Now that the trucker protest is over, the world has gone to war. I think they need some hot tub truckers in Donetsk to save the world. Oddly, the UCL is still playing during this war, seems unsafe, though I guess the Russians have not made the English Channel yet. The big question is Jonathan David playing and will he be able to safely return to Canada.
> > >
> > > E. Mendy - Christensen, Thiago Silva, Rüdiger - Azpilicueta, Kanté, Kovacic, Marcos Alonso - Ziyech, Havertz, Pulisic
> > >
> > >
> > > Leo Jardim - Celik, José Fonte, Botman, Tiago Djalo - A. Onana, Xeka, André - Renato Sanches, David, J. Bamba
> > I’m very disappointed that Lukaku wasn’t picked.
> >
> > He cost me over 10 million in fantasy football!
> >
> > What don’t they ever consider the fantasy managers? :(
> >
> > RM

On Tuesday, February 22, 2022 at 4:37:49 PM UTC-5, Futbolmetrix wrote:
> On Tuesday, February 22, 2022 at 4:26:39 PM UTC-5, Werner Pichler wrote:
> > On Tuesday, February 22, 2022 at 10:14:55 PM UTC+1, Binder Dundat wrote:
> > > Putin's Chelsea attacked quickly and scored early, Lille defended the early attacks and the freedom fighters have done OK since the early Russian attacks
> > > CHE 1 - 0 LOSC 57 min
> > >
> > > I am hoping some rapid sanctions even this match out soon
> > Watching Juve concede the equaliser I keep thinking - if you just sit back and defend, shouldn't you at least sit back and, well, defend?
> Football and Rabiot suck, but Vlahovic is decent.

Also has the looks of a Hollywood leading man.

On Tuesday, February 22, 2022 at 4:37:49 PM UTC-5, Futbolmetrix wrote:

> Football and Rabiot suck, but Vlahovic is decent.

If I had kept my mouth shut, his 85th minute shot would have just been that tiny bit more angled to trickle past Rulli. Such is the way of the Weaufx Gods.

On Tuesday, February 22, 2022 at 10:37:49 PM UTC+1, Futbolmetrix wrote:
> On Tuesday, February 22, 2022 at 4:26:39 PM UTC-5, Werner Pichler wrote:
> > On Tuesday, February 22, 2022 at 10:14:55 PM UTC+1, Binder Dundat wrote:
> > > Putin's Chelsea attacked quickly and scored early, Lille defended the early attacks and the freedom fighters have done OK since the early Russian attacks
> > > CHE 1 - 0 LOSC 57 min
> > >
> > > I am hoping some rapid sanctions even this match out soon
> > Watching Juve concede the equaliser I keep thinking - if you just sit back and defend, shouldn't you at least sit back and, well, defend?
>
> Football and Rabiot suck,

The only thing I can think of in his favour is that perhaps it looked worse in slow motion.
Strange that VAR didn't intervene.

> but Vlahovic is decent.

It's still difficult to assess a 1-1 away draw without AGR. It's not as good a result as it used to be.

Ciao,
Werner

On 2022-02-22 14:28, Al Kamista wrote:
> On Tuesday, February 22, 2022 at 4:04:56 PM UTC-5, Real Mardin wrote:
>> On Tuesday, February 22, 2022 at 7:57:10 PM UTC, Binder Dundat wrote:
>>> Now that the trucker protest is over, the world has gone to war. I think they need some hot tub truckers in Donetsk to save the world. Oddly, the UCL is still playing during this war, seems unsafe, though I guess the Russians have not made the English Channel yet. The big question is Jonathan David playing and will he be able to safely return to Canada.
>>>
>>> E. Mendy - Christensen, Thiago Silva, Rüdiger - Azpilicueta, Kanté, Kovacic, Marcos Alonso - Ziyech, Havertz, Pulisic
>>>
>>>
>>> Leo Jardim - Celik, José Fonte, Botman, Tiago Djalo - A. Onana, Xeka, André - Renato Sanches, David, J. Bamba
>> I’m very disappointed that Lukaku wasn’t picked.
>>
>> He cost me over 10 million in fantasy football!
>>
>> What don’t they ever consider the fantasy managers? :(
>
> In no walk of life have I felt my needs more disregarded by the higher powers than as a fantasy football manager.

Yeah, and those managers who take off a player at exactly 59 minutes so
you don't get the extra point. Brutal.

On Tuesday, February 22, 2022 at 4:57:36 PM UTC-5, Werner Pichler wrote:
> >
> > Football and Rabiot suck,
> The only thing I can think of in his favour is that perhaps it looked worse in slow motion.
> Strange that VAR didn't intervene.

Yeah, that too. But it's 100% his fault that he let Parejo stroll unmarked into penalty box on Villarreal's goal.
As for the foul, I have seen comments that there was not sufficient force or speed to justify a red card. Not sure about that. Certainly orange-ish.

>
> > but Vlahovic is decent.
>
> It's still difficult to assess a 1-1 away draw without AGR. It's not as good a result as it used to be.

Definitely not...[but maybe we should check the simulations to see how large the difference is...]

[checks simulations...]

wait, what?

[check simulations again...]

????

No, I'm pretty sure my calculations are correct.

Team 2 (team playing away in the first leg) has actually a slightly *higher* probability of qualifying after a 1-1 draw under No-AGR than under AGR (!!!)

The basic explanation: 2-2 draws (and 3-3, 4-4, etc.) happen. In fact, the probability of a draw with two goals or higher is about 6.8%, versus 5.9% for 0-0 draws.

The total probability of Team 2 qualifying after a 1-1 draw is 57.1% without AGR (this year), versus only 55.9% with AGR (last year).

Diabolical mastermind Allegri has done it again...

On Tuesday, February 22, 2022 at 5:44:15 PM UTC-5, Futbolmetrix wrote:
> On Tuesday, February 22, 2022 at 4:57:36 PM UTC-5, Werner Pichler wrote:
> > >
> > > Football and Rabiot suck,
> > The only thing I can think of in his favour is that perhaps it looked worse in slow motion.
> > Strange that VAR didn't intervene.
> Yeah, that too. But it's 100% his fault that he let Parejo stroll unmarked into penalty box on Villarreal's goal.
> As for the foul, I have seen comments that there was not sufficient force or speed to justify a red card. Not sure about that. Certainly orange-ish.
> >
> > > but Vlahovic is decent.
> >
> > It's still difficult to assess a 1-1 away draw without AGR. It's not as good a result as it used to be.
> Definitely not...[but maybe we should check the simulations to see how large the difference is...]
>
> [checks simulations...]
>
> wait, what?
>
> [check simulations again...]
>
> ????
>
> No, I'm pretty sure my calculations are correct.
>
> Team 2 (team playing away in the first leg) has actually a slightly *higher* probability of qualifying after a 1-1 draw under No-AGR than under AGR (!!!)
>
> The basic explanation: 2-2 draws (and 3-3, 4-4, etc.) happen. In fact, the probability of a draw with two goals or higher is about 6.8%, versus 5.9% for 0-0 draws.
>
> The total probability of Team 2 qualifying after a 1-1 draw is 57.1% without AGR (this year), versus only 55.9% with AGR (last year).
>
> Diabolical mastermind Allegri has done it again...

So yes, the calculations were a bit off, and my updated numbers suggest that this result is slightly worse for Juve than what it would have been last year:

https://twitter.com/Futbolmetrix1/status/1496348487998443521?s=20&t=P1fk79sEej95gOquiJdDnA

But the difference is maybe smaller than what I expected. 2-2s happen, and the home team in the return leg has a bigger advantage in extra time (now a lot more likely to happen) than what it had with AGR.

Fascinating stuff...

MH wrote:

> On 2022-02-22 14:28, Al Kamista wrote:
> > On Tuesday, February 22, 2022 at 4:04:56 PM UTC-5, Real Mardin wrote:
> > >
> > > What don’t they ever consider the fantasy managers? :(
> >
> > In no walk of life have I felt my needs more disregarded by the higher
> > powers than as a fantasy football manager.
>
> Yeah, and those managers who take off a player at exactly 59 minutes so
> you don't get the extra point. Brutal.

I wonder do any [real] football managers play FPL? It'd be funny if they
did and made their substitutions deliberately around 62-65 minute mark
just so they did get the extra point!

On Wednesday, February 23, 2022 at 6:02:26 AM UTC+1, Futbolmetrix wrote:
> On Tuesday, February 22, 2022 at 5:44:15 PM UTC-5, Futbolmetrix wrote:
> > On Tuesday, February 22, 2022 at 4:57:36 PM UTC-5, Werner Pichler wrote:
> > > >
> > > > Football and Rabiot suck,
> > > The only thing I can think of in his favour is that perhaps it looked worse in slow motion.
> > > Strange that VAR didn't intervene.
> > Yeah, that too. But it's 100% his fault that he let Parejo stroll unmarked into penalty box on Villarreal's goal.
> > As for the foul, I have seen comments that there was not sufficient force or speed to justify a red card. Not sure about that. Certainly orange-ish.
> > >
> > > > but Vlahovic is decent.
> > >
> > > It's still difficult to assess a 1-1 away draw without AGR. It's not as good a result as it used to be.
> > Definitely not...[but maybe we should check the simulations to see how large the difference is...]
> >
> > [checks simulations...]
> >
> > wait, what?
> >
> > [check simulations again...]
> >
> > ????
> >
> > No, I'm pretty sure my calculations are correct.
> >
> > Team 2 (team playing away in the first leg) has actually a slightly *higher* probability of qualifying after a 1-1 draw under No-AGR than under AGR (!!!)
> >
> > The basic explanation: 2-2 draws (and 3-3, 4-4, etc.) happen. In fact, the probability of a draw with two goals or higher is about 6.8%, versus 5.9% for 0-0 draws.
> >
> > The total probability of Team 2 qualifying after a 1-1 draw is 57.1% without AGR (this year), versus only 55.9% with AGR (last year).
> >
> > Diabolical mastermind Allegri has done it again...
>
> So yes, the calculations were a bit off, and my updated numbers suggest that this result is slightly worse for Juve than what it would have been last year:
>
> https://twitter.com/Futbolmetrix1/status/1496348487998443521?s=20&t=P1fk79sEej95gOquiJdDnA

Heh, so what I wrote is 'conventional wisdom' then? :)

> But the difference is maybe smaller than what I expected. 2-2s happen, and the home team in the return leg has a bigger advantage in extra time (now a lot more likely to happen) than what it had with AGR.
>
> Fascinating stuff...

Looking at the data on all European ties between 1971 and 2021 with AGR it does look a bit different though:

first leg result / number of ties with that result / home team in first leg progresses / home team in second leg progresses

Qualifying rounds:

0-0 / 311 / 37.9% / 62.1%
1-1 / 364 / 31.6% / 68.4%
2-2 / 105 / 30.5% / 69.5%
3-3 / 14 / 14.3% / 85.7%
4-4 / 1 / 0% / 100%

Knock-out rounds:

0-0 / 432 / 33.8% / 66.2%
1-1 / 456 / 25.4% / 74.6%
2-2 / 175 / 18.3% / 81.7%
3-3 / 19 / 26.3% / 73.7%
4-4 / 3 / 33.3% / 66.6%

I'm pretty certain that the higher probabilities for Team 2 in the knock-out rounds compared to qualifiers is that for a long
time now to play the second leg at home has been the privilege of seeded group winners, so the better team.

But I don't know how much there's been a shift in the percentages over those five decades.

Ciao,
Werner

On Wednesday, February 23, 2022 at 9:50:49 AM UTC-5, Werner Pichler wrote:
> >
> > https://twitter.com/Futbolmetrix1/status/1496348487998443521?s=20&t=P1fk79sEej95gOquiJdDnA
> Heh, so what I wrote is 'conventional wisdom' then? :)

Well, if both you and I (with a grand total of 13 appearances in the Hall of Sophistication) share the same view, then it must be the conventional wisdom!

> > But the difference is maybe smaller than what I expected. 2-2s happen, and the home team in the return leg has a bigger advantage in extra time (now a lot more likely to happen) than what it had with AGR.
> >
> > Fascinating stuff...
> Looking at the data on all European ties between 1971 and 2021 with AGR it does look a bit different though:
>
>
> first leg result / number of ties with that result / home team in first leg progresses / home team in second leg progresses
>
> Qualifying rounds:
>
> 0-0 / 311 / 37.9% / 62.1%
> 1-1 / 364 / 31.6% / 68.4%
> 2-2 / 105 / 30.5% / 69.5%
> 3-3 / 14 / 14.3% / 85.7%
> 4-4 / 1 / 0% / 100%

Nice. Is there a source of the data with individual ties in easily downloadable format?

>
> Knock-out rounds:
>
> 0-0 / 432 / 33.8% / 66.2%
> 1-1 / 456 / 25.4% / 74.6%
> 2-2 / 175 / 18.3% / 81.7%
> 3-3 / 19 / 26.3% / 73.7%
> 4-4 / 3 / 33.3% / 66.6%
>
> I'm pretty certain that the higher probabilities for Team 2 in the knock-out rounds compared to qualifiers is that for a long
> time now to play the second leg at home has been the privilege of seeded group winners, so the better team.

Yes, very likely.

>
> But I don't know how much there's been a shift in the percentages over those five decades.

The numbers I got were for two teams of equal value, whereas in reality if the first match ends in a 1-1 draw it's likely that Team 2 is slightly better (after all, they overcame the home field advantage and achieved a draw).

But the other difference is that the simulations assume that goals of the two teams are independent, and independent of game state, while that is probably not the case. A team coming home after a 1-1 away draw would probably have played more conservatively, while the other team would have had to send more players forward and expose itself to counterattacks.

On Wednesday, February 23, 2022 at 6:29:11 PM UTC+1, Futbolmetrix wrote:
> On Wednesday, February 23, 2022 at 9:50:49 AM UTC-5, Werner Pichler wrote:
> > >
> > > https://twitter.com/Futbolmetrix1/status/1496348487998443521?s=20&t=P1fk79sEej95gOquiJdDnA
> > Heh, so what I wrote is 'conventional wisdom' then? :)
> Well, if both you and I (with a grand total of 13 appearances in the Hall of Sophistication) share the same view, then it must be the conventional wisdom!
> > > But the difference is maybe smaller than what I expected. 2-2s happen, and the home team in the return leg has a bigger advantage in extra time (now a lot more likely to happen) than what it had with AGR.
> > >
> > > Fascinating stuff...
> > Looking at the data on all European ties between 1971 and 2021 with AGR it does look a bit different though:
> >
> >
> > first leg result / number of ties with that result / home team in first leg progresses / home team in second leg progresses
> >
> > Qualifying rounds:
> >
> > 0-0 / 311 / 37.9% / 62.1%
> > 1-1 / 364 / 31.6% / 68.4%
> > 2-2 / 105 / 30.5% / 69.5%
> > 3-3 / 14 / 14.3% / 85.7%
> > 4-4 / 1 / 0% / 100%
>
> Nice. Is there a source of the data with individual ties in easily downloadable format?

I got it from here (brush up your German)

https://www.5-jahres-wertung.de/Forum/viewtopic.php?f=14&t=1539
https://www.dropbox.com/s/zin2fxjgw803q3k/EP-KO-Ergebnisse_2018_12_31.zip?dl=0

The guy stopped updating the list after December 2018, so some time ago I added the remaining two years by hand.
(actually, I now realise I must have done it in the COVID-induced boredom of Winter 2020/21, so it's missing the very
last knock-out rounds with AGR played in spring 2021). If you want I can send you that file.

I can't vouch for the accuracy of either their or my data.

> > Knock-out rounds:
> >
> > 0-0 / 432 / 33.8% / 66.2%
> > 1-1 / 456 / 25.4% / 74.6%
> > 2-2 / 175 / 18.3% / 81.7%
> > 3-3 / 19 / 26.3% / 73.7%
> > 4-4 / 3 / 33.3% / 66.6%
> >
> > I'm pretty certain that the higher probabilities for Team 2 in the knock-out rounds compared to qualifiers is that for a long
> > time now to play the second leg at home has been the privilege of seeded group winners, so the better team.
>
> Yes, very likely.
> >
> > But I don't know how much there's been a shift in the percentages over those five decades.
>
> The numbers I got were for two teams of equal value, whereas in reality if the first match ends in a 1-1 draw it's likely that Team 2 is slightly better (after all, they overcame the home field advantage and achieved a
> draw).
>
> But the other difference is that the simulations assume that goals of the two teams are independent, and independent of game state, while that is probably not the case. A team coming home after a 1-1 away draw
> would probably have played more conservatively, while the other team would have had to send more players forward and expose itself to counterattacks.

I've had a quick look at this season's CL, EL, and ECL qualifiers, and if I haven't miscounted there have been 25 1-1 draws in the first leg,
with the home team in the 2nd leg progressing 17 times - so that's exactly the same percentage of 68% as above for qualifiers.

Ciao,
Werner