Rocksolid Light

Welcome to novaBBS (click a section below)

mail  files  register  newsreader  groups  login

Message-ID:  

It's like deja vu all over again. -- Yogi Berra

sport / rec.sport.football.college / Re: Okay, Mr. "no odds are too low if it's a sure thing" - what's the play?

SubjectAuthor
* Okay, Mr. "no odds are too low if it's a sure thing" - what's the play?The NOTBCS Guy
+* Re: Okay, Mr. "no odds are too low if it's a sure thing" - what's the play?Michael Falkner
|`* Re: Okay, Mr. "no odds are too low if it's a sure thing" - what's the play?The NOTBCS Guy
| `- Re: Okay, Mr. "no odds are too low if it's a sure thing" - what's the play?The NOTBCS Guy
`- Re: Okay, Mr. "no odds are too low if it's a sure thing" - what's the play?TimV

1
Okay, Mr. "no odds are too low if it's a sure thing" - what's the play?

<6e303af9-3eb1-4210-ad84-a41ab6371419n@googlegroups.com>

  copy mid

https://www.novabbs.com/sport/article-flat.php?id=67831&group=rec.sport.football.college#67831

  copy link   Newsgroups: rec.sport.football.college
X-Received: by 2002:a05:622a:1aa5:b0:3f6:af78:de08 with SMTP id s37-20020a05622a1aa500b003f6af78de08mr11151qtc.12.1688166274095;
Fri, 30 Jun 2023 16:04:34 -0700 (PDT)
X-Received: by 2002:a63:105c:0:b0:553:df97:82c8 with SMTP id
28-20020a63105c000000b00553df9782c8mr2262892pgq.2.1688166273646; Fri, 30 Jun
2023 16:04:33 -0700 (PDT)
Path: i2pn2.org!i2pn.org!usenet.goja.nl.eu.org!3.eu.feeder.erje.net!feeder.erje.net!proxad.net!feeder1-2.proxad.net!209.85.160.216.MISMATCH!news-out.google.com!nntp.google.com!postnews.google.com!google-groups.googlegroups.com!not-for-mail
Newsgroups: rec.sport.football.college
Date: Fri, 30 Jun 2023 16:04:33 -0700 (PDT)
Injection-Info: google-groups.googlegroups.com; posting-host=2601:640:c601:a4a0:cb4:a842:18e4:5c96;
posting-account=CiN9zwoAAACEFRzDDza-FSMajy2RxjDh
NNTP-Posting-Host: 2601:640:c601:a4a0:cb4:a842:18e4:5c96
User-Agent: G2/1.0
MIME-Version: 1.0
Message-ID: <6e303af9-3eb1-4210-ad84-a41ab6371419n@googlegroups.com>
Subject: Okay, Mr. "no odds are too low if it's a sure thing" - what's the play?
From: don.p.de...@gmail.com (The NOTBCS Guy)
Injection-Date: Fri, 30 Jun 2023 23:04:34 +0000
Content-Type: text/plain; charset="UTF-8"
 by: The NOTBCS Guy - Fri, 30 Jun 2023 23:04 UTC

William Hill was offering the follwing bets in Vegas:

Alabama NOT winning the CFP championship: -900
Georgia NOT winning the CFP championship: -290
Ohio State NOT winning the CFP championship: -1700
LSU NOT winning the CFP championship: -4000

Meanwhile, Circa is offering:
Alabama will lose at least one regular season game: -730
(I was tempted to go the other way: +525 that they go 12-0)

Re: Okay, Mr. "no odds are too low if it's a sure thing" - what's the play?

<fb52d771-2d7c-4eb2-bb50-c8278772fdd6n@googlegroups.com>

  copy mid

https://www.novabbs.com/sport/article-flat.php?id=67833&group=rec.sport.football.college#67833

  copy link   Newsgroups: rec.sport.football.college
X-Received: by 2002:a05:6214:560d:b0:635:e17b:1c81 with SMTP id mg13-20020a056214560d00b00635e17b1c81mr13719qvb.3.1688191251348;
Fri, 30 Jun 2023 23:00:51 -0700 (PDT)
X-Received: by 2002:a05:6a00:2d1a:b0:67d:41a8:3e19 with SMTP id
fa26-20020a056a002d1a00b0067d41a83e19mr5724163pfb.3.1688191250842; Fri, 30
Jun 2023 23:00:50 -0700 (PDT)
Path: i2pn2.org!i2pn.org!usenet.blueworldhosting.com!diablo1.usenet.blueworldhosting.com!peer01.iad!feed-me.highwinds-media.com!news.highwinds-media.com!news-out.google.com!nntp.google.com!postnews.google.com!google-groups.googlegroups.com!not-for-mail
Newsgroups: rec.sport.football.college
Date: Fri, 30 Jun 2023 23:00:50 -0700 (PDT)
In-Reply-To: <6e303af9-3eb1-4210-ad84-a41ab6371419n@googlegroups.com>
Injection-Info: google-groups.googlegroups.com; posting-host=66.215.204.171; posting-account=kWR-NgkAAACqn6SaCFVs7emEXu71x7Vd
NNTP-Posting-Host: 66.215.204.171
References: <6e303af9-3eb1-4210-ad84-a41ab6371419n@googlegroups.com>
User-Agent: G2/1.0
MIME-Version: 1.0
Message-ID: <fb52d771-2d7c-4eb2-bb50-c8278772fdd6n@googlegroups.com>
Subject: Re: Okay, Mr. "no odds are too low if it's a sure thing" - what's the play?
From: darkstar...@gmail.com (Michael Falkner)
Injection-Date: Sat, 01 Jul 2023 06:00:51 +0000
Content-Type: text/plain; charset="UTF-8"
Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable
X-Received-Bytes: 1921
 by: Michael Falkner - Sat, 1 Jul 2023 06:00 UTC

On Friday, June 30, 2023 at 4:04:35 PM UTC-7, The NOTBCS Guy wrote:
> William Hill was offering the follwing bets in Vegas:
>
> Alabama NOT winning the CFP championship: -900
> Georgia NOT winning the CFP championship: -290
> Ohio State NOT winning the CFP championship: -1700
> LSU NOT winning the CFP championship: -4000
>
> Meanwhile, Circa is offering:
> Alabama will lose at least one regular season game: -730
> (I was tempted to go the other way: +525 that they go 12-0)

What were they offering for CFP Championship not ALA or GA?

That +525 almost sounds like easy money. Who, on that schedule, even threatens Alabama?

Mike

Re: Okay, Mr. "no odds are too low if it's a sure thing" - what's the play?

<5d237e18-b8a2-4cd3-9760-4692fb56e2b7n@googlegroups.com>

  copy mid

https://www.novabbs.com/sport/article-flat.php?id=67834&group=rec.sport.football.college#67834

  copy link   Newsgroups: rec.sport.football.college
X-Received: by 2002:a05:620a:318b:b0:767:3f29:ccaf with SMTP id bi11-20020a05620a318b00b007673f29ccafmr11793qkb.0.1688206522562;
Sat, 01 Jul 2023 03:15:22 -0700 (PDT)
X-Received: by 2002:a17:902:d2cd:b0:1b7:edcd:8dcf with SMTP id
n13-20020a170902d2cd00b001b7edcd8dcfmr4083539plc.4.1688206522230; Sat, 01 Jul
2023 03:15:22 -0700 (PDT)
Path: i2pn2.org!i2pn.org!usenet.blueworldhosting.com!diablo1.usenet.blueworldhosting.com!peer03.iad!feed-me.highwinds-media.com!news.highwinds-media.com!news-out.google.com!nntp.google.com!postnews.google.com!google-groups.googlegroups.com!not-for-mail
Newsgroups: rec.sport.football.college
Date: Sat, 1 Jul 2023 03:15:21 -0700 (PDT)
In-Reply-To: <6e303af9-3eb1-4210-ad84-a41ab6371419n@googlegroups.com>
Injection-Info: google-groups.googlegroups.com; posting-host=104.183.171.186; posting-account=Z3KVMQoAAABanD1H_0CUdMbUTRiTjXAR
NNTP-Posting-Host: 104.183.171.186
References: <6e303af9-3eb1-4210-ad84-a41ab6371419n@googlegroups.com>
User-Agent: G2/1.0
MIME-Version: 1.0
Message-ID: <5d237e18-b8a2-4cd3-9760-4692fb56e2b7n@googlegroups.com>
Subject: Re: Okay, Mr. "no odds are too low if it's a sure thing" - what's the play?
From: tim.vanw...@gmail.com (TimV)
Injection-Date: Sat, 01 Jul 2023 10:15:22 +0000
Content-Type: text/plain; charset="UTF-8"
Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable
X-Received-Bytes: 2147
 by: TimV - Sat, 1 Jul 2023 10:15 UTC

On Friday, June 30, 2023 at 6:04:35 PM UTC-5, The NOTBCS Guy wrote:
> William Hill was offering the follwing bets in Vegas:
>
> Alabama NOT winning the CFP championship: -900
> Georgia NOT winning the CFP championship: -290
> Ohio State NOT winning the CFP championship: -1700
> LSU NOT winning the CFP championship: -4000
>
> Meanwhile, Circa is offering:
> Alabama will lose at least one regular season game: -730
> (I was tempted to go the other way: +525 that they go 12-0)

I’ve never placed a bet in my life and likely never will. But the LSU one is definitely dumb. That’s like putting $4k in a 6 mo CD in a non FDIC bank that you’re pretty sure will still be there in 6 months, but at the return of only 2.5%.

So that’s your answer. Unless you’re an edgelord betting because you’re a hopeless addict.

Re: Okay, Mr. "no odds are too low if it's a sure thing" - what's the play?

<5da91085-ae31-45b5-83bd-1e0e4d9554cen@googlegroups.com>

  copy mid

https://www.novabbs.com/sport/article-flat.php?id=67835&group=rec.sport.football.college#67835

  copy link   Newsgroups: rec.sport.football.college
X-Received: by 2002:a05:620a:4587:b0:765:a9f8:9591 with SMTP id bp7-20020a05620a458700b00765a9f89591mr16040qkb.7.1688220168192;
Sat, 01 Jul 2023 07:02:48 -0700 (PDT)
X-Received: by 2002:a17:90b:1041:b0:262:ca06:3021 with SMTP id
gq1-20020a17090b104100b00262ca063021mr3910436pjb.0.1688220167634; Sat, 01 Jul
2023 07:02:47 -0700 (PDT)
Path: i2pn2.org!i2pn.org!usenet.blueworldhosting.com!diablo1.usenet.blueworldhosting.com!peer03.iad!feed-me.highwinds-media.com!news.highwinds-media.com!news-out.google.com!nntp.google.com!postnews.google.com!google-groups.googlegroups.com!not-for-mail
Newsgroups: rec.sport.football.college
Date: Sat, 1 Jul 2023 07:02:46 -0700 (PDT)
In-Reply-To: <fb52d771-2d7c-4eb2-bb50-c8278772fdd6n@googlegroups.com>
Injection-Info: google-groups.googlegroups.com; posting-host=2601:640:c601:a4a0:cb4:a842:18e4:5c96;
posting-account=CiN9zwoAAACEFRzDDza-FSMajy2RxjDh
NNTP-Posting-Host: 2601:640:c601:a4a0:cb4:a842:18e4:5c96
References: <6e303af9-3eb1-4210-ad84-a41ab6371419n@googlegroups.com> <fb52d771-2d7c-4eb2-bb50-c8278772fdd6n@googlegroups.com>
User-Agent: G2/1.0
MIME-Version: 1.0
Message-ID: <5da91085-ae31-45b5-83bd-1e0e4d9554cen@googlegroups.com>
Subject: Re: Okay, Mr. "no odds are too low if it's a sure thing" - what's the play?
From: don.p.de...@gmail.com (The NOTBCS Guy)
Injection-Date: Sat, 01 Jul 2023 14:02:48 +0000
Content-Type: text/plain; charset="UTF-8"
X-Received-Bytes: 2445
 by: The NOTBCS Guy - Sat, 1 Jul 2023 14:02 UTC

> > William Hill was offering the follwing bets in Vegas:
> >
> > Alabama NOT winning the CFP championship: -900
> > Georgia NOT winning the CFP championship: -290

> What were they offering for CFP Championship not ALA or GA?

Assuming you mean a bet that neither team wins it, they didn't offer one, but you can kinda sorta make your own:
Let's say you bet A on Alabama not winning, and G on Georgia not winning
If Georgia wins, you end up with 1/9 A - G
If Alabama wins, you end up with 10/29 G - A
They are the same when 1/9 A - G = 10/29 G - A
Add A + G to both sides: 10/9 A = 39/29 G
Multiply both sides by 9 x 29: 290 A = 351 G
If you bet 351 on Alabama (which pays 39) and 290 on Georgia (which pays 100), and:
(a) Georgia wins, you end up with 39 - 290 = -251
(b) Alabama wins, you end up with 100 - 351 = -251
(c) neither wins, you end up with 39 + 100 = 139
Even though you are betting 641 in total, you are actually risking 251 to win 139, which is about -180.

On the other hand:
Betting 251 on just Alabama pays about 28 if Alabama does not win
Betting 251 on just Georgia pays about 87 if Georgia does not win

Re: Okay, Mr. "no odds are too low if it's a sure thing" - what's the play?

<99f5cb41-571b-40e9-a694-21479cd69c06n@googlegroups.com>

  copy mid

https://www.novabbs.com/sport/article-flat.php?id=67865&group=rec.sport.football.college#67865

  copy link   Newsgroups: rec.sport.football.college
X-Received: by 2002:a05:620a:4594:b0:765:aafa:5be7 with SMTP id bp20-20020a05620a459400b00765aafa5be7mr31198qkb.14.1688432938248;
Mon, 03 Jul 2023 18:08:58 -0700 (PDT)
X-Received: by 2002:a17:90a:d493:b0:262:e955:3d87 with SMTP id
s19-20020a17090ad49300b00262e9553d87mr8744676pju.9.1688432937983; Mon, 03 Jul
2023 18:08:57 -0700 (PDT)
Path: i2pn2.org!i2pn.org!weretis.net!feeder8.news.weretis.net!proxad.net!feeder1-2.proxad.net!209.85.160.216.MISMATCH!news-out.google.com!nntp.google.com!postnews.google.com!google-groups.googlegroups.com!not-for-mail
Newsgroups: rec.sport.football.college
Date: Mon, 3 Jul 2023 18:08:57 -0700 (PDT)
In-Reply-To: <5da91085-ae31-45b5-83bd-1e0e4d9554cen@googlegroups.com>
Injection-Info: google-groups.googlegroups.com; posting-host=73.71.193.44; posting-account=CiN9zwoAAACEFRzDDza-FSMajy2RxjDh
NNTP-Posting-Host: 73.71.193.44
References: <6e303af9-3eb1-4210-ad84-a41ab6371419n@googlegroups.com>
<fb52d771-2d7c-4eb2-bb50-c8278772fdd6n@googlegroups.com> <5da91085-ae31-45b5-83bd-1e0e4d9554cen@googlegroups.com>
User-Agent: G2/1.0
MIME-Version: 1.0
Message-ID: <99f5cb41-571b-40e9-a694-21479cd69c06n@googlegroups.com>
Subject: Re: Okay, Mr. "no odds are too low if it's a sure thing" - what's the play?
From: don.p.de...@gmail.com (The NOTBCS Guy)
Injection-Date: Tue, 04 Jul 2023 01:08:58 +0000
Content-Type: text/plain; charset="UTF-8"
Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable
 by: The NOTBCS Guy - Tue, 4 Jul 2023 01:08 UTC

Meanwhile, over at Circa, where they ID everybody (they make it sound like it's to uphold their "must be at least 21" policy to get in, but the fact that they scan your ID and then wait for some sort of confirmation makes it look like they're checking you against some list of undesirables, like card counters), here are some other bets on not winning the CFP championship game:
Oregon, -6000
Washington, -8000
Notre Dame, -9600
UTEP, -14000
Wisconsin, -18000
Here's one to think about: USC, only -2000

1
server_pubkey.txt

rocksolid light 0.9.81
clearnet tor