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sport / alt.sports.football.pro.dallas-cowboys / Chance of Drafted / Undrafted Player Success, 2 measurement criteria

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Chance of Drafted / Undrafted Player Success, 2 measurement criteria

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Subject: Chance of Drafted / Undrafted Player Success, 2 measurement criteria
From: prohuman...@gmail.com (observer)
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 by: observer - Tue, 27 Apr 2021 23:28 UTC

1) Correlation between Draft Position and "Starter Status".

Note that draft rounds 1 and 2 = 32 players each, draft
rounds 3 to 7 vary each year, in 2021
https://www.drafttek.com/nfl-trade-value-chart.asp
draft round 3 = 41 players
draft round 4 = 39 players
draft round 5 = 40 players
draft round 6 = 44 players
draft round 7 = 31 players

Number of undrafted players making a team,
in 2020, 24 players that were drafted did not
make their teams, but 33 players who were
overlooked (i.e., undrafted players) did make
it to active rosters, 33 players

Of course, the total number of undrafted players
signed each year is quite high, with most not
making it to an active roster; however, it's esti-
mated that 30% of NFL rosters are undrafted
college free agents
https://www.nfldraftdiamonds.com/2019/09/undrafted-2/

Draft Round - Percent

1 - 29.9%
2 - 17.5%
3 - 12.6%
4 - 10.8%
5 - 6.4%
6 - 4.9%
7 - 4.2%
Undrafted - 13.6%

Expected, 1st round & 2nd round success, &
decreased chance of success in each lower
round, but *SHOCKING*, the high% of success
among Undrafted players. One possible explan-
ation for that is the fact that teams agree to terms
with many of the undrafted players before the ...

.... draft, so apparently, a significant percent of
them are worthy of being 5th-6th-7th round draf-
tees but end up being signed after the draft.

Total 5th-6th-7th rounders = 15.5%

~~~

2) Correlation between between Draft Position
and Reaching "All-Pro" Status

Round - Percent

1 - 48.5%
2 - 14.0%
3 - 8.8%
4 - 7.0%
5 - 5.3%
6 - 3.5%
7 - 1.2%
Undrafted - 10.5%

Once again, *SHOCKING* that the undrafted
percent reaching All-Pro status is so high, but
considering undrafted players make up 30%
of rosters, not as surprising as most would
expect.

---

Reference:

May 22 2015

Tracking NFL Draft Efficiency: How
Contingent Is Success To Draft Position?
https://www.forbes.com/sites/prishe/2015/05/22/tracking-nfl-draft-efficiency-how-contingent-is-success-to-draft-position/?sh=6554dc567495

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