So here we are at the end sprint of the first ever "Octagonal" (an
improvement on the old hexagonal if you ask me).

Teams still in the running (from worst chances to best):

El Salvador. 9 points. Could get to 18 and pip both Panama and Costa
Rica for the playoff place. That would involve aways wins in Jamaica and
Mexico, a home win vs. Costa Rica, and (depending on GD which is very
much not in El Salvador's favour) COsta Rica not getting more than a
point from its two games vs. Canada and the US (both at home), as well
as Panama losing all three games (home to Honduras, away to USA, home to
Canada). In SPC terms I would put this at about 0.0001

Costa Rica. 16 pts. Still very much in the mix for the playoff spot,
but because of who is playing whom, will have a tough time qualifying
directly. They can get a maximum of 25 points (what Canada has now, but
Canada's GD is much better). To do so they would have to beat both
Canada and the USA (both at home) and win away to El Salvador. A tall
order, but not impossible. If they can do that, the USA might be in a
spot of bother. The playoff spot is much more achievable, they just
need one more GD and one more point than Panama gets (or the USA
managing only a point or two)

SPC odds ? Playoff spot .3 to .4. Higher if they win the first game
vs. Canada. Team has looked old and past their best so far, though.
Direct qualification ? .04. Needs too many other results in their
favour, and there are a lot of draws in CONCACAF.

Panama. 17 points. Remaining matches home to Honduras, away to USA,
home to Canada. Should be able to get to 21-23 points, maybe more. Have
mostly looked good. Should win their last match if Canada has already
qualified.
SPC: .55 for Playoff spot. .13 for a direct place.

USA. 21 points (2nd place on GD, but remaining matches are tougher than
Mexico's). Away to Mexico, home to Panama, away to Costa Rica. A
collapse is possible that would leave them in 5th place. Say a loss in
the Azteca, followed by an unlucky home draw with Panama. That would
leave a showdown with Costa Rica that would determine the fate of both
teams. But Mexico have been remarkably fragile at home this series, and
I think the USA has the depth to manage at least 2 points from the last
2 games, and more likely 4.

SPC. .05 for playoff. .93 for a direct place.

Mexico. 21 points. 2 home games left. Two games against teams out of
realistic contention. They should get the job done, even if they have
been less than impressive. 3 points should be enough.

Playoff 0.03, Direct .96

Canada. Because of who is playing who, they can't do worse than 4th
place. But this team has been riding its luck and living beyond its
means, and is missing its talisman, Alphonso Davies. Also two tough
away matches vs. Costa Rica and Panama. Home game is against Jamaica.
No points from the matches is possible, but would not even be a problem
if the US helps us out. I'd guess we get two or three, but you never
know with our defenders.

Playoff .02, direct .98

On Wednesday, March 23, 2022 at 6:32:13 PM UTC, MH wrote:
> So here we are at the end sprint of the first ever "Octagonal" (an
> improvement on the old hexagonal if you ask me).
>
> Teams still in the running (from worst chances to best):
>
>
> El Salvador. 9 points. Could get to 18 and pip both Panama and Costa
> Rica for the playoff place. That would involve aways wins in Jamaica and
> Mexico, a home win vs. Costa Rica, and (depending on GD which is very
> much not in El Salvador's favour) COsta Rica not getting more than a
> point from its two games vs. Canada and the US (both at home), as well
> as Panama losing all three games (home to Honduras, away to USA, home to
> Canada). In SPC terms I would put this at about 0.0001
>
> Costa Rica. 16 pts. Still very much in the mix for the playoff spot,
> but because of who is playing whom, will have a tough time qualifying
> directly. They can get a maximum of 25 points (what Canada has now, but
> Canada's GD is much better). To do so they would have to beat both
> Canada and the USA (both at home) and win away to El Salvador. A tall
> order, but not impossible. If they can do that, the USA might be in a
> spot of bother. The playoff spot is much more achievable, they just
> need one more GD and one more point than Panama gets (or the USA
> managing only a point or two)
>
> SPC odds ? Playoff spot .3 to .4. Higher if they win the first game
> vs. Canada. Team has looked old and past their best so far, though.
> Direct qualification ? .04. Needs too many other results in their
> favour, and there are a lot of draws in CONCACAF.
>
> Panama. 17 points. Remaining matches home to Honduras, away to USA,
> home to Canada. Should be able to get to 21-23 points, maybe more. Have
> mostly looked good. Should win their last match if Canada has already
> qualified.
> SPC: .55 for Playoff spot. .13 for a direct place.
>
>
> USA. 21 points (2nd place on GD, but remaining matches are tougher than
> Mexico's). Away to Mexico, home to Panama, away to Costa Rica. A
> collapse is possible that would leave them in 5th place. Say a loss in
> the Azteca, followed by an unlucky home draw with Panama. That would
> leave a showdown with Costa Rica that would determine the fate of both
> teams. But Mexico have been remarkably fragile at home this series, and
> I think the USA has the depth to manage at least 2 points from the last
> 2 games, and more likely 4.
>
> SPC. .05 for playoff. .93 for a direct place.
>
> Mexico. 21 points. 2 home games left. Two games against teams out of
> realistic contention. They should get the job done, even if they have
> been less than impressive. 3 points should be enough.
>
> Playoff 0.03, Direct .96
>
> Canada. Because of who is playing who, they can't do worse than 4th
> place. But this team has been riding its luck and living beyond its
> means, and is missing its talisman, Alphonso Davies. Also two tough
> away matches vs. Costa Rica and Panama. Home game is against Jamaica.
> No points from the matches is possible, but would not even be a problem
> if the US helps us out. I'd guess we get two or three, but you never
> know with our defenders.
>
> Playoff .02, direct .98

I can't watch these games where I am but looking in from the outside it seems an exciting time to be a CONCACAF fan, all the more so with a CONCACAF World Cup scheduled for 2026.

RM

On Thursday, March 24, 2022 at 9:01:35 a.m. UTC-4, Real Mardin wrote:
> On Wednesday, March 23, 2022 at 6:32:13 PM UTC, MH wrote:
> > So here we are at the end sprint of the first ever "Octagonal" (an
> > improvement on the old hexagonal if you ask me).
> >
> > Teams still in the running (from worst chances to best):
> >
> >
> > El Salvador. 9 points. Could get to 18 and pip both Panama and Costa
> > Rica for the playoff place. That would involve aways wins in Jamaica and
> > Mexico, a home win vs. Costa Rica, and (depending on GD which is very
> > much not in El Salvador's favour) COsta Rica not getting more than a
> > point from its two games vs. Canada and the US (both at home), as well
> > as Panama losing all three games (home to Honduras, away to USA, home to
> > Canada). In SPC terms I would put this at about 0.0001
> >
> > Costa Rica. 16 pts. Still very much in the mix for the playoff spot,
> > but because of who is playing whom, will have a tough time qualifying
> > directly. They can get a maximum of 25 points (what Canada has now, but
> > Canada's GD is much better). To do so they would have to beat both
> > Canada and the USA (both at home) and win away to El Salvador. A tall
> > order, but not impossible. If they can do that, the USA might be in a
> > spot of bother. The playoff spot is much more achievable, they just
> > need one more GD and one more point than Panama gets (or the USA
> > managing only a point or two)
> >
> > SPC odds ? Playoff spot .3 to .4. Higher if they win the first game
> > vs. Canada. Team has looked old and past their best so far, though.
> > Direct qualification ? .04. Needs too many other results in their
> > favour, and there are a lot of draws in CONCACAF.
> >
> > Panama. 17 points. Remaining matches home to Honduras, away to USA,
> > home to Canada. Should be able to get to 21-23 points, maybe more. Have
> > mostly looked good. Should win their last match if Canada has already
> > qualified.
> > SPC: .55 for Playoff spot. .13 for a direct place.
> >
> >
> > USA. 21 points (2nd place on GD, but remaining matches are tougher than
> > Mexico's). Away to Mexico, home to Panama, away to Costa Rica. A
> > collapse is possible that would leave them in 5th place. Say a loss in
> > the Azteca, followed by an unlucky home draw with Panama. That would
> > leave a showdown with Costa Rica that would determine the fate of both
> > teams. But Mexico have been remarkably fragile at home this series, and
> > I think the USA has the depth to manage at least 2 points from the last
> > 2 games, and more likely 4.
> >
> > SPC. .05 for playoff. .93 for a direct place.
> >
> > Mexico. 21 points. 2 home games left. Two games against teams out of
> > realistic contention. They should get the job done, even if they have
> > been less than impressive. 3 points should be enough.
> >
> > Playoff 0.03, Direct .96
> >
> > Canada. Because of who is playing who, they can't do worse than 4th
> > place. But this team has been riding its luck and living beyond its
> > means, and is missing its talisman, Alphonso Davies. Also two tough
> > away matches vs. Costa Rica and Panama. Home game is against Jamaica.
> > No points from the matches is possible, but would not even be a problem
> > if the US helps us out. I'd guess we get two or three, but you never
> > know with our defenders.
> >
> > Playoff .02, direct .98
> I can't watch these games where I am but looking in from the outside it seems an exciting time to be a CONCACAF fan, all the more so with a CONCACAF World Cup scheduled for 2026.

There are ways to watch, but the time difference might be the biggest hurdle. Like Asia, the Rockingness of this could all be subdued to like an Air Supply or Simply Red pop song if Canada win, Panama lose and USA vs Mex tie tonight.

>
>
> RM

On Thursday, March 24, 2022 at 1:41:45 PM UTC, Binder Dundat wrote:
> On Thursday, March 24, 2022 at 9:01:35 a.m. UTC-4, Real Mardin wrote:
> > On Wednesday, March 23, 2022 at 6:32:13 PM UTC, MH wrote:
> > > So here we are at the end sprint of the first ever "Octagonal" (an
> > > improvement on the old hexagonal if you ask me).
> > >
> > > Teams still in the running (from worst chances to best):
> > >
> > >
> > > El Salvador. 9 points. Could get to 18 and pip both Panama and Costa
> > > Rica for the playoff place. That would involve aways wins in Jamaica and
> > > Mexico, a home win vs. Costa Rica, and (depending on GD which is very
> > > much not in El Salvador's favour) COsta Rica not getting more than a
> > > point from its two games vs. Canada and the US (both at home), as well
> > > as Panama losing all three games (home to Honduras, away to USA, home to
> > > Canada). In SPC terms I would put this at about 0.0001
> > >
> > > Costa Rica. 16 pts. Still very much in the mix for the playoff spot,
> > > but because of who is playing whom, will have a tough time qualifying
> > > directly. They can get a maximum of 25 points (what Canada has now, but
> > > Canada's GD is much better). To do so they would have to beat both
> > > Canada and the USA (both at home) and win away to El Salvador. A tall
> > > order, but not impossible. If they can do that, the USA might be in a
> > > spot of bother. The playoff spot is much more achievable, they just
> > > need one more GD and one more point than Panama gets (or the USA
> > > managing only a point or two)
> > >
> > > SPC odds ? Playoff spot .3 to .4. Higher if they win the first game
> > > vs. Canada. Team has looked old and past their best so far, though.
> > > Direct qualification ? .04. Needs too many other results in their
> > > favour, and there are a lot of draws in CONCACAF.
> > >
> > > Panama. 17 points. Remaining matches home to Honduras, away to USA,
> > > home to Canada. Should be able to get to 21-23 points, maybe more. Have
> > > mostly looked good. Should win their last match if Canada has already
> > > qualified.
> > > SPC: .55 for Playoff spot. .13 for a direct place.
> > >
> > >
> > > USA. 21 points (2nd place on GD, but remaining matches are tougher than
> > > Mexico's). Away to Mexico, home to Panama, away to Costa Rica. A
> > > collapse is possible that would leave them in 5th place. Say a loss in
> > > the Azteca, followed by an unlucky home draw with Panama. That would
> > > leave a showdown with Costa Rica that would determine the fate of both
> > > teams. But Mexico have been remarkably fragile at home this series, and
> > > I think the USA has the depth to manage at least 2 points from the last
> > > 2 games, and more likely 4.
> > >
> > > SPC. .05 for playoff. .93 for a direct place.
> > >
> > > Mexico. 21 points. 2 home games left. Two games against teams out of
> > > realistic contention. They should get the job done, even if they have
> > > been less than impressive. 3 points should be enough.
> > >
> > > Playoff 0.03, Direct .96
> > >
> > > Canada. Because of who is playing who, they can't do worse than 4th
> > > place. But this team has been riding its luck and living beyond its
> > > means, and is missing its talisman, Alphonso Davies. Also two tough
> > > away matches vs. Costa Rica and Panama. Home game is against Jamaica.
> > > No points from the matches is possible, but would not even be a problem
> > > if the US helps us out. I'd guess we get two or three, but you never
> > > know with our defenders.
> > >
> > > Playoff .02, direct .98
> > I can't watch these games where I am but looking in from the outside it seems an exciting time to be a CONCACAF fan, all the more so with a CONCACAF World Cup scheduled for 2026.
> There are ways to watch, but the time difference might be the biggest hurdle.

Good point, during USA 94 I stayed up late to watch Spain v South Korea, the match started, the next thing I know I wake up to the commentators celebrating a South Korean equaliser........in the 90th minute. I'd managed to sleep through nearly the entire game!

Mexico v Bulgaria was also a test of endurance for me, I passed out during extra time but managed to wake up in time to see the penalty shootout.

Still, living in UEFA'land we usually get it good with World Cup kick off times so I can't complain.

RM

On 2022-03-23 12:32, MH wrote:
> So here we are at the end sprint of the first ever "Octagonal" (an
> improvement on the old hexagonal if you ask me).
>

So it is (nearly, barring ridiculous goal difference swings) all done
and dusted.

Jamaica were at nowhere near full strength yesterday and it showed a
bit. But Canada did play well, and could have easily been up 4-0 by
half time. Even without Alphonso, this team can play some nice stuff,
and is very dangerous in transition. Tajon keeps getting better, though
his finishing could improve. Our 4-4-2 (rare for Herdman) worked more
like a 4-2-3-1, and against this opposition, the Osorio/Eustaquio combo
in midfield was pretty effective.

I am delighted we are finally back in a WC, I was in my 20s and had no
children yet (one was on the way) in 1986.

I still think we rode our luck quite a bit on the way there, and gave up
too many high quality scoring chances. But we actually conceded very
few goals in spite of that (Borjan and Crepeau did better than I
expected, and Miller and Vitoria, in particular, rose to the occasion in
central defence.

I think the fact that 5 subs were allowed per game was a real bonus for
us in terms of Herdman's team building philosophy, as it made the second
stringers, who we needed quite a bit, feel like part of everything.
Will 5 subs still be in place in Qatar ?

Bottom line: 6 wins and one draw at home. Do that and you always give
yourself a chance. Record versus the top teams (USA, MEX) - 2 wins, 2
draws. I'll take that any day. Away record so far: 2 wins, 3 draws 1
loss. A draw or (less likely) a win in Panama will guarantee first place
in the group. we might have a serious let-down though, and presumably
Herdman will start some of the lesser lights. On the other hand, Panama
must be crushed and despondent right now, after such a good run early on.

>