Only one home win in the last round of this cycle of Conmebol WCQ, which may
well be the last under the current format. But unlike last time around, this
wasn't much of a rocking one. Peru, who was ahead of Colombia and Chile,
settled matters in the first half already and never really looked threatened.
Colombia struggled, but although they did their part, it wasn't enough, while
Chile again disappointed. Ecuador and Uruguay celebrated the spot earned in
the previous round by putting on good shows on this one. Juggernauts Brasil
and Argentina preserved their invincibilities, and Paraguay, Bolivia and
Venezuela again didn't do much and remained at the foot of the table.

Ecuador 1-1 Argentina

Both sides were already qualified to the World Cup, but they decided to give
a good show to the crowd that filled Estadio Monumental de Guayaquil. Pushed
ahead by their fans, Ecuador made most of the play and put Argentina under
real pressure, but conceded Julian Alvarez's opener against the run of play..
Argentina created a few chances, but had to rely on another good match by
Emiliano Martinez to keep the Ecuadorans at bay. In the end, a VAR assisted
penalty gave Ecuador the equalizer. Martinez saved Enner Valencia's effort,
but the latter scored on the rebound.

Argentina can no longer reach Brasil in the WCQ table, even if they win the
remaining game in hand. But with this result, they've matched their previous
record unbeaten run of 31 games, built by Alfio Basile's team between 1991
and 1993. Ecuador ends the qualifiers on a high note, after a very poor game
in Paraguay. Let's see how they do when the actual thing rolls on.

Chile 0-2 Uruguay

Chile has been tailspinning for a while and were in for a rough landing at
Estadio San Carlos de Apoquindo, in Santiago. Although they had to win to
stand any chance, it was Uruguay who created the more dangerous chances and
forced some good saves from Brayan Cortes.

Both goals came in the second half. De Arrascaeta took a corner kick and
a free Suarez scored from a nice overhead kick. The second goal was near
the end, a strong shot from outside the box by Valverde, just far enough
out of Cortes's reach.

Fourth win in a row for Uruguay, after some rough times at the end of Maestro
Tabarez's reign. Chile ends their qualifying run on a downer and certain that
they have a lot of rebuilding to do. Indeed, that's been true for a while.

Peru 2-0 Paraguay

A deserved win for Peru at a crowded Estadio Nacional de Lima, which qualifies
them to the intercontinental playoffs and keeps their qualifying hopes alive.
They settled matters in the first half already, with a goal by Lapadula in the
4th minute and Yotun at the 41st. Although Paraguay had more possession in the
second half, they never really seemed to seriously threaten the hosts. In the
end, the big white and red crowd celebrated as Peru remains in the race towards
their 6th World Cup participation.

Venezuela 0-1 Colombia

A quite even affair at Estadio Polideportivo Cachamay, in Ciudad Guayana, with
a number of scoring chances by both sides. In the end, a VAR-assisted penalty
separated the two teams, near the end of the first half. Fariñez saved James's
effort at first, but he had moved ahead of his line before the shot and it had
to be retaken. James took it again and then made no mistake.

Colombia had a prolonged poor run and when they recovered from it, it was too
little, too late. Venezuela improved a little in the ending rounds, just like
last time around - and finished at the bottom, just like last time around. With
14 losses in 18 games and just 10 points, they achieved the second worst run ever
since Conmebol WCQ became a double round robin, in 1996, better only than their
own run in that cycle (3 points from 16 games).

Bolivia 0-4 Brasil

Times have indeed changed when you see Brasil travel to Estadio Hernando Siles,
in La Paz, and return with such a win in the bag. Bolivia did create a few chances
and gave some work to Alisson, but never really looked like they'd get anything
from this game. Paquetá, Bruno Guimarães and Richarlison (twice) scored for Brasil.

Brasil reached 45 points, thus breaking Argentina's previous record of 43 from
WC'2002 cycle. There's still a game in hand, against Argentina, that will be played
in June somewhere in Europe (although, technically, Brasil are "hosts" I guess). A
friendly, for all intents and purposes, whose main interest for both sides should
be to defend their unbeaten runs.

Final Table [points, games, w-d-l, gs-gc, gd]

1 Brasil 45 17 14 3 0 40 5 35
2 Argentina 39 17 11 6 0 27 8 19
3 Uruguay 28 18 8 4 6 22 22 0
4 Ecuador 26 18 7 5 6 27 19 8
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------
5 Peru 24 18 7 3 8 19 22 -3
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6 Colombia 23 18 5 8 5 20 19 1
7 Chile 19 18 5 4 9 19 26 -7
8 Paraguay 16 18 3 7 8 12 26 -14
9 Bolivia 15 18 4 3 11 23 42 -19
10 Venezuela 10 18 3 1 14 14 34 -20

Home Table [points, games, w-d-l, gs-gc, gd]

1 Brasil 24 8 8 0 0 23 1 22
2 Argentina 21 9 6 3 0 14 2 12
3 Ecuador 18 9 5 3 1 19 7 12
4 Uruguay 17 9 5 2 2 12 7 5
5 Peru 14 9 4 2 3 12 11 1
6 Colombia 13 9 3 4 2 11 7 4
7 Bolivia 13 9 4 1 4 17 14 3
8 Chile 11 9 3 2 4 11 10 1
9 Paraguay 10 9 2 4 3 10 11 -1
10 Venezuela 10 9 3 1 5 11 13 -2

Away Table [points, games, w-d-l, gs-gc, gd]

1 Brasil 21 9 6 3 0 17 4 13
2 Argentina 18 8 5 3 0 13 6 7
3 Uruguay 11 9 3 2 4 10 15 -5
4 Colombia 10 9 2 4 3 9 12 -3
5 Peru 10 9 3 1 5 7 11 -4
6 Ecuador 8 9 2 2 5 8 12 -4
7 Chile 8 9 2 2 5 8 16 -8
8 Paraguay 6 9 1 3 5 2 15 -13
9 Bolivia 2 9 0 2 7 6 28 -22
10 Venezuela 0 9 0 0 9 3 21 -18

For the intercontinental playoffs, Peru now faces either the United Arab Emirates or
Australia, probably the latter, in Qatar on June 13rd or 14th. If Fifa and Elo are to
be trusted, Peru should be considered favorites. However, it is a one-match showdown,
so I guess anything may happen there.

In the end, this was not a very interesting qualifying cycle overall. A glance at
the goal differences show the extent of Brasil and Argentina's domination over the
rest of the field. There was some competition for the remaining spots, but not as
much as in previous cycles.

South America seems thinner than it has been in the recent past. My impression is
that, beyond Brasil and Argentina, only Uruguay seems capable of doing anything
noteworthy in the World Cup. Ecuador is not bad, but they are not that good either,
maybe they can sneak past the first round depending on what their group looks like
or whether they're on a roll or not. Peru, eh, I don't really rate them. Can't see
them doing much of anything without the help of a generous draw (for example, drawing
Qatar as first seed). I'd be happy to be proven wrong, though.

--
Lléo