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sport / rec.sport.soccer / Re: (R/T) Conmebol WCQ 2022, Round 17

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* (R/T) Conmebol WCQ 2022, Round 17Lléo
+- Re: (R/T) Conmebol WCQ 2022, Round 17Lléo
`* Re: (R/T) Conmebol WCQ 2022, Round 17Mark
 `- Re: (R/T) Conmebol WCQ 2022, Round 17Mark

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(R/T) Conmebol WCQ 2022, Round 17

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Subject: (R/T) Conmebol WCQ 2022, Round 17
From: llb.mo...@gmail.com (Lléo)
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 by: Lléo - Fri, 25 Mar 2022 05:16 UTC

We're drawing close to the finish line of the 2022 cycle of Conmebol WCQ.
Uruguay and Ecuador both join Brasil and Argentina and clinch their berths
in Qatar, leaving a three-way battle for the interconfederational playoff
against the Asian representative. Peru, Colombia and Chile remain thick in
the hunt for Conmebol's last shot at qualifying.

Colombia and Paraguay break their long runs without winning (7 games) or
scoring (6 games), while Ecuador sees its unbeaten run stopped at five. Bolivia
goes yet another full WCQ cycle without an away win (2 draws and 7 losses), it's
been now 65 games since they last won a WCQ game as visitor, 8 draws and 57
losses. Brasil, on the other hand, reach opposite landmarks: 50th historical
WCQ win as host, and an ongoing 33-game WCQ unbeaten run.

Uruguay 1-0 Peru

Uruguay clinches a World Cup berth with a win over Peru at Estadio Centenario,
in Montevideo. A goal by de Arrascaeta, in the 41st minute, separated the two
teams. Peruvians complained a lot about a play, near the end, where Trauco
seemed to lob the ball over the penalty area and ended up catching Rochet off
his line - the Uruguayan keeper backtracked and was inside the goal when he
made the save, but it was unclear whether the ball had fully crossed the line
or not. Brazilian referee Anderson Daronco just waved play on and, it seems,
was told by the VAR team via radio that the ball indeed hadn't gone inside.

Uruguay won three out of three WCQ's under new manager Diego Alonso and this
surge has yielded a spot in the plane to Qatar. An extra point would have been
valuable for Peru, and would have kept Uruguay within reach too. Still, they'll
enter the final round ahead of their direct competitors for the playoff spot.

Colombia 3-0 Bolivia

Colombia ends their run of six games without a win (or even scoring) with a
predictably easy victory at Estadio Metropolitano of Barranquilla. Luis Diaz ran
the show, scoring the opener and assisting Borja's second. Near the end, Uribe
added the third. Bolivia was a harmless visitor, as usual.

Colombia is now one point behind Peru and has a better goal difference than
both Peru and Chile. Plus, they play the bottom-placed team in the last round.
Although they depend on another result to qualify to the playoffs, there is
still reason for hope. If they don't revert to their old toothless ways, that
is... Bolivia will host Brasil and neither side really have anything else to
play for.

Brasil 4-0 Chile

A stylish win for Brasil at Maracanã, in Rio de Janeiro, their 50th ever as
hosts in the WCQ, over a hapless Chilean side, with two goals in either side
of half-time. Neymar scored the opener from a penalty kick and the next three
goals came from players whose origins were with local clubs: Vinicius Junior
(Flamengo), Phillipe Coutinho (Vasco) and Richarlison (Fluminense). Chile stood
no chance, their only noteworthy moment was a goal correctly called back for
handball. Brasil's third goal came from a completely bogus penalty call, a
play which probably wasn't even a foul and it isn't clear whether it was inside
the box, but hey, VAR eh?

Chile, in 7th place, now hosts Uruguay. They need to win and root against
Colombia and Peru, who play weaker opponents that also do not have anything
else to play for. Plus, their goal difference took quite a beating today,
though they'd still be ahead of Peru if both sides tie on points.

Paraguay 3-1 Ecuador

A surprisingly assertive win by Paraguay over Ecuador at Estadio Antonio Arandia,
in Ciudad del Este. The hosts, who also were on a six-game streak without scoring,
opened count with an 8th goal minute by Morales. A strong backpass by Hincapié
from the whereabouts of the centre circle somehow caught goalkeeper Galindez off
his line and wrongfooted, for a bizarre own goal by the visitors. Early in the
second half, Almiron capitalized on yet another defensive blunder by the Ecuadorans
for the 3-0. Caicedo, from a penalty, scored Ecuador's consolation goal.

Poor performance aside, Ecuador was helped by Uruguay's win over Peru and also
clinched their berth in Qatar'2022. Their last matchday is at home against
Argentina, in what is effectively a friendly for both sides. Paraguay, already
out of contention, visits Peru for one of the key games of the last round.

Tomorrow evening from La Bombonera, Buenos Aires: Argentina vs Venezuela.

Standings so far:

1 Brasil 42 (one game in hand)
2 Argentina 35 (two games in hand)
3 Ecuador 25 (GD +8)
4 Uruguay 25 (GD -2)
-----------------------
5 Peru 21 (GD -5)
-----------------------
6 Colombia 20 (GD 0)
7 Chile 19 (GD -5)
8 Paraguay 16
9 Bolivia 15
10 Venezuela 10 (one game in hand)

Next round to be played on March 29th. In brackets below, the results of these
games in the WCQ cycles of 2018/2014/2010/2006/2002/1998 (all the round robin
ones so far):

Peru - Paraguay (1-0, 2-0, 0-0, 4-1, 2-0, 1-0). Matchday 1: 2-2

One of the key games of the round here. Peru only depends on themselves: if
they win, they go again to the interconfederational playoffs. A draw doesn't
help them much, though, since Colombia plays the bottom-placed side and Chile
would beat them on GD if they draw level on points. Paraguay has nothing to
play for, though they got a surprisingly emphatic win on this round, we don't
know how they'll react to a roaring Estadio Nacional de Lima - which is a place
they don't visit too well, historically.

There is a symmetry in that Peru has the 8th best home record, while Paraguay
has the 8th away one, ie, a poor host receives a weak visitor. Up for grabs,
really. I'll make it a 2-1 win for Peru because I don't want to leave a blank
prediction, but I have no idea what will happen on this one (in soph-terms:
Peru 0.34, draw 0.33, Paraguay 0.33).

Venezuela - Colombia (0-0, 1-0, 2-0, 0-0, 2-2, 0-2). Matchday 1: COL 3-0 VEN

And here's another one of the key games of the round, to be played at Estadio
Cachamay, in Ciudad Guayana. Venezuela is stuck at the bottom and has only been
playing for pride for a while. But they tend to be a rocky host for Colombia,
whose last WCQ win in their neighboring country was over 25 years ago... Indeed,
they barely even scored in Venezuelan territory since then. On paper Colombia
is clearly the better side and should prevail, let's see if they'll do it on
the field as well. I'll tip a tight, tense 0-1 win for Colombia (in soph-terms:
Venezuela 0.30, draw 0.30, Colombia 0.40).

Chile - Uruguay (3-1, 2-0, 0-0, 1-1, 0-1, 1-0). Matchday 1: URU 2-1 CHI

And here's the third key game of the round. Tough one for Chile, although
luckily for them Uruguay has already clinched their spot and doesn't need
any points here. Not that they'll intend to make the Chileans' life any
easier, of course, since they are the better, more organized side. I think
Chile considered taking this game to Calama, but seeing as it didn't really
work as intended against Argentina, they'll be back to Universidad Catolica's
San Carlos de Apoquindo, in Santiago, to try to go for a pressure cauldron
setting in what are more familiar conditions for them I suppose?

Anyway, Chile vs Uruguay tends to go for Chile when played in Chile, and for
Uruguay when played elsewhere, and this game won't be played elsewhere, so
I'll call a close 1-0 win for the hosts (in soph-terms: Chile 0.35, draw 0.35,
Uruguay 0.30).

Bolivia - Brasil (0-0, n/a, 2-1, 1-1, 3-1, n/a). Matchday 1: BRA 5-0 BOL

One of the round's two games that are basically friendlies. Brasil won't
count on Neymar, who spared himself from a tiresome trip to La Paz by forcing
a yellow card against Chile on this round (an old trick by now I guess). Vini
Jr. is also on a yellow card suspension. Last time around in La Paz, Brasil
surprisingly blew away the hosts and was very unlucky to be held to a draw.
I have no idea, though, about whether it's reasonable to expect an encore of
that performance.

In sum, Bolivia has the altitude, Brasil has the vastly better side, and neither
of the two have anything to play for, really, apart from defending unbeaten
runs (Brasil's in the WCQ, and Bolivia's as hosts against Brasil). If both are
successful at that, then we're looking at a draw, say, 1-1 (in soph-terms:
Bolivia 0.30, draw 0.35, Brasil 0.35).

Ecuador - Argentina (1-3, 1-1, 2-0, 2-0, 0-2, 2-0). Matchday 1: ARG 1-0 ECU

And here's the other one of the round's two games that are basically friendlies.
I guess Ecuador will want to put on a good show for their crowd to celebrate
qualification to the World Cup, but they won't count with the help of the
altitude here, since the game will be held in Guayaquil instead of Quito.
Argentina is the much better team and it wouldn't be strange to see them pulling
a win here. I'll call it a 1-2 win for the visitors (in soph-terms: Ecuador 0.30,
draw 0.25, Argentina 0.45).

--
Lléo

Re: (R/T) Conmebol WCQ 2022, Round 17

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Subject: Re: (R/T) Conmebol WCQ 2022, Round 17
From: llb.mo...@gmail.com (Lléo)
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 by: Lléo - Sat, 26 Mar 2022 15:44 UTC

Lléo escreveu:
> Tomorrow evening from La Bombonera, Buenos Aires: Argentina vs Venezuela.

An easy 3-0 win for Argentina, who put on a good show for their crowd. Goals
by Nico Gonzalez, Di Maria and Messi extended their unbeaten run to 30 games.
Venezuela is again stuck to 10th place and has lost every away game they
played in this WCQ cycle (something that doesn't happen to them since the
WC'98 qualifiers).
Standings so far:
1 Brasil 42 (one game in hand)
2 Argentina 38 (one games in hand)
3 Ecuador 25 (GD +8)
4 Uruguay 25 (GD -2)
-----------------------
5 Peru 21 (GD -5)
-----------------------
6 Colombia 20 (GD 0)
7 Chile 19 (GD -5)
8 Paraguay 16
9 Bolivia 15
10 Venezuela 10

--
Lléo

Re: (R/T) Conmebol WCQ 2022, Round 17

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Subject: Re: (R/T) Conmebol WCQ 2022, Round 17
From: Pammiesh...@yahoo.co.uk (Mark)
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 by: Mark - Sun, 27 Mar 2022 16:56 UTC

On Friday, March 25, 2022 at 5:16:53 AM UTC, Lléo wrote:

> Peru - Paraguay (1-0, 2-0, 0-0, 4-1, 2-0, 1-0). Matchday 1: 2-2
>
> One of the key games of the round here. Peru only depends on themselves: if
> they win, they go again to the interconfederational playoffs. A draw doesn't
> help them much, though, since Colombia plays the bottom-placed side and Chile
> would beat them on GD if they draw level on points. Paraguay has nothing to
> play for, though they got a surprisingly emphatic win on this round, we don't
> know how they'll react to a roaring Estadio Nacional de Lima - which is a place
> they don't visit too well, historically.
>
> There is a symmetry in that Peru has the 8th best home record, while Paraguay
> has the 8th away one, ie, a poor host receives a weak visitor. Up for grabs,
> really. I'll make it a 2-1 win for Peru because I don't want to leave a blank
> prediction, but I have no idea what will happen on this one (in soph-terms:
> Peru 0.34, draw 0.33, Paraguay 0.33).

I predict a 2-1 win for Peru aswell
>
> Venezuela - Colombia (0-0, 1-0, 2-0, 0-0, 2-2, 0-2). Matchday 1: COL 3-0 VEN
>
> And here's another one of the key games of the round, to be played at Estadio
> Cachamay, in Ciudad Guayana. Venezuela is stuck at the bottom and has only been
> playing for pride for a while. But they tend to be a rocky host for Colombia,
> whose last WCQ win in their neighboring country was over 25 years ago... Indeed,
> they barely even scored in Venezuelan territory since then. On paper Colombia
> is clearly the better side and should prevail, let's see if they'll do it on
> the field as well. I'll tip a tight, tense 0-1 win for Colombia (in soph-terms:
> Venezuela 0.30, draw 0.30, Colombia 0.40).

0-1
>
> Chile - Uruguay (3-1, 2-0, 0-0, 1-1, 0-1, 1-0). Matchday 1: URU 2-1 CHI
>
> And here's the third key game of the round. Tough one for Chile, although
> luckily for them Uruguay has already clinched their spot and doesn't need
> any points here. Not that they'll intend to make the Chileans' life any
> easier, of course, since they are the better, more organized side. I think
> Chile considered taking this game to Calama, but seeing as it didn't really
> work as intended against Argentina, they'll be back to Universidad Catolica's
> San Carlos de Apoquindo, in Santiago, to try to go for a pressure cauldron
> setting in what are more familiar conditions for them I suppose?
>
> Anyway, Chile vs Uruguay tends to go for Chile when played in Chile, and for
> Uruguay when played elsewhere, and this game won't be played elsewhere, so
> I'll call a close 1-0 win for the hosts (in soph-terms: Chile 0.35, draw 0.35,
> Uruguay 0.30).

2-2
>
> Bolivia - Brasil (0-0, n/a, 2-1, 1-1, 3-1, n/a). Matchday 1: BRA 5-0 BOL
>
> One of the round's two games that are basically friendlies. Brasil won't
> count on Neymar, who spared himself from a tiresome trip to La Paz by forcing
> a yellow card against Chile on this round (an old trick by now I guess). Vini
> Jr. is also on a yellow card suspension. Last time around in La Paz, Brasil
> surprisingly blew away the hosts and was very unlucky to be held to a draw.
> I have no idea, though, about whether it's reasonable to expect an encore of
> that performance.
>
> In sum, Bolivia has the altitude, Brasil has the vastly better side, and neither
> of the two have anything to play for, really, apart from defending unbeaten
> runs (Brasil's in the WCQ, and Bolivia's as hosts against Brasil). If both are
> successful at that, then we're looking at a draw, say, 1-1 (in soph-terms:
> Bolivia 0.30, draw 0.35, Brasil 0.35).

0-1
>
> Ecuador - Argentina (1-3, 1-1, 2-0, 2-0, 0-2, 2-0). Matchday 1: ARG 1-0 ECU
>
> And here's the other one of the round's two games that are basically friendlies.
> I guess Ecuador will want to put on a good show for their crowd to celebrate
> qualification to the World Cup, but they won't count with the help of the
> altitude here, since the game will be held in Guayaquil instead of Quito.
> Argentina is the much better team and it wouldn't be strange to see them pulling
> a win here. I'll call it a 1-2 win for the visitors (in soph-terms: Ecuador 0.30,
> draw 0.25, Argentina 0.45).

1-2
>
>
> --
> Lléo

Re: (R/T) Conmebol WCQ 2022, Round 17

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Subject: Re: (R/T) Conmebol WCQ 2022, Round 17
From: Pammiesh...@yahoo.co.uk (Mark)
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 by: Mark - Thu, 31 Mar 2022 20:45 UTC

On Sunday, March 27, 2022 at 5:56:58 PM UTC+1, Mark wrote:
> On Friday, March 25, 2022 at 5:16:53 AM UTC, Lléo wrote:
>
> > Peru - Paraguay (1-0, 2-0, 0-0, 4-1, 2-0, 1-0). Matchday 1: 2-2
> >
> > One of the key games of the round here. Peru only depends on themselves: if
> > they win, they go again to the interconfederational playoffs. A draw doesn't
> > help them much, though, since Colombia plays the bottom-placed side and Chile
> > would beat them on GD if they draw level on points. Paraguay has nothing to
> > play for, though they got a surprisingly emphatic win on this round, we don't
> > know how they'll react to a roaring Estadio Nacional de Lima - which is a place
> > they don't visit too well, historically.
> >
> > There is a symmetry in that Peru has the 8th best home record, while Paraguay
> > has the 8th away one, ie, a poor host receives a weak visitor. Up for grabs,
> > really. I'll make it a 2-1 win for Peru because I don't want to leave a blank
> > prediction, but I have no idea what will happen on this one (in soph-terms:
> > Peru 0.34, draw 0.33, Paraguay 0.33).
> I predict a 2-1 win for Peru aswell

Lleo 85
Mark 85
> >
> > Venezuela - Colombia (0-0, 1-0, 2-0, 0-0, 2-2, 0-2). Matchday 1: COL 3-0 VEN
> >
> > And here's another one of the key games of the round, to be played at Estadio
> > Cachamay, in Ciudad Guayana. Venezuela is stuck at the bottom and has only been
> > playing for pride for a while. But they tend to be a rocky host for Colombia,
> > whose last WCQ win in their neighboring country was over 25 years ago.... Indeed,
> > they barely even scored in Venezuelan territory since then. On paper Colombia
> > is clearly the better side and should prevail, let's see if they'll do it on
> > the field as well. I'll tip a tight, tense 0-1 win for Colombia (in soph-terms:
> > Venezuela 0.30, draw 0.30, Colombia 0.40).
> 0-1

Lleo 100
Mark 100
> >
> > Chile - Uruguay (3-1, 2-0, 0-0, 1-1, 0-1, 1-0). Matchday 1: URU 2-1 CHI
> >
> > And here's the third key game of the round. Tough one for Chile, although
> > luckily for them Uruguay has already clinched their spot and doesn't need
> > any points here. Not that they'll intend to make the Chileans' life any
> > easier, of course, since they are the better, more organized side. I think
> > Chile considered taking this game to Calama, but seeing as it didn't really
> > work as intended against Argentina, they'll be back to Universidad Catolica's
> > San Carlos de Apoquindo, in Santiago, to try to go for a pressure cauldron
> > setting in what are more familiar conditions for them I suppose?
> >
> > Anyway, Chile vs Uruguay tends to go for Chile when played in Chile, and for
> > Uruguay when played elsewhere, and this game won't be played elsewhere, so
> > I'll call a close 1-0 win for the hosts (in soph-terms: Chile 0.35, draw 0.35,
> > Uruguay 0.30).
> 2-2

Lleo 0
Mark 0
> >
> > Bolivia - Brasil (0-0, n/a, 2-1, 1-1, 3-1, n/a). Matchday 1: BRA 5-0 BOL
> >
> > One of the round's two games that are basically friendlies. Brasil won't
> > count on Neymar, who spared himself from a tiresome trip to La Paz by forcing
> > a yellow card against Chile on this round (an old trick by now I guess).. Vini
> > Jr. is also on a yellow card suspension. Last time around in La Paz, Brasil
> > surprisingly blew away the hosts and was very unlucky to be held to a draw.
> > I have no idea, though, about whether it's reasonable to expect an encore of
> > that performance.
> >
> > In sum, Bolivia has the altitude, Brasil has the vastly better side, and neither
> > of the two have anything to play for, really, apart from defending unbeaten
> > runs (Brasil's in the WCQ, and Bolivia's as hosts against Brasil). If both are
> > successful at that, then we're looking at a draw, say, 1-1 (in soph-terms:
> > Bolivia 0.30, draw 0.35, Brasil 0.35).
> 0-1

Lleo 0
Mark 60
> >
> > Ecuador - Argentina (1-3, 1-1, 2-0, 2-0, 0-2, 2-0). Matchday 1: ARG 1-0 ECU
> >
> > And here's the other one of the round's two games that are basically friendlies.
> > I guess Ecuador will want to put on a good show for their crowd to celebrate
> > qualification to the World Cup, but they won't count with the help of the
> > altitude here, since the game will be held in Guayaquil instead of Quito.
> > Argentina is the much better team and it wouldn't be strange to see them pulling
> > a win here. I'll call it a 1-2 win for the visitors (in soph-terms: Ecuador 0.30,
> > draw 0.25, Argentina 0.45).
> 1-2

Lleo 30
Mark 30

Totals:
Lléo 215
Mark 275

1
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