WHO head offers upbeat view of state of pandemic: ‘The world has never been in a better position to end it’

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/who-head-offers-upbeat-view-of-state-of-pandemic-the-world-has-never-been-in-a-better-position-to-end-it-11663166440?mod=mw_latestnews

On Thursday, September 15, 2022 at 7:40:20 AM UTC-4, a a wrote:
> WHO head offers upbeat view of state of pandemic: ‘The world has never been in a better position to end it’
>
>
> https://www.marketwatch.com/story/who-head-offers-upbeat-view-of-state-of-pandemic-the-world-has-never-been-in-a-better-position-to-end-it-11663166440?mod=mw_latestnews

That's because most of the vulnerables have been killed off.

On Thursday, 15 September 2022 at 15:43:19 UTC+2, Fred Bloggs wrote:
> On Thursday, September 15, 2022 at 7:40:20 AM UTC-4, a a wrote:
> > WHO head offers upbeat view of state of pandemic: ‘The world has never been in a better position to end it’
> >
> >
> > https://www.marketwatch.com/story/who-head-offers-upbeat-view-of-state-of-pandemic-the-world-has-never-been-in-a-better-position-to-end-it-11663166440?mod=mw_latestnews
> That's because most of the vulnerables have been killed off.
exactly
He who has not died has become immune

On 15/09/2022 14:43, Fred Bloggs wrote:
> On Thursday, September 15, 2022 at 7:40:20 AM UTC-4, a a wrote:
>> WHO head offers upbeat view of state of pandemic: ‘The world has never been in a better position to end it’
>>
>>
>> https://www.marketwatch.com/story/who-head-offers-upbeat-view-of-state-of-pandemic-the-world-has-never-been-in-a-better-position-to-end-it-11663166440?mod=mw_latestnews
>
> That's because most of the vulnerables have been killed off.

Nothing like. Most of them *have* been vaccinated and that reduces the
risk of fatality from catching Covid-19 by about a factor of 10-20x.

Having just experienced symptomatic Covid after full vaccination in the
UK I would not have been keen to have got it in the pre-vaccine era.

The Covid cough is extremely annoying (and no doubt very efficient at
generating fine aerosols to pass on the disease).

A lucky (for them) 30% of the population never develop any obvious Covid
symptoms even when they are infected and infective.

They make brilliant vectors for moving the virus around though.

--
Regards,
Martin Brown

On Thursday, 15 September 2022 at 22:40:04 UTC+2, Martin Brown wrote:
> On 15/09/2022 14:43, Fred Bloggs wrote:
> > On Thursday, September 15, 2022 at 7:40:20 AM UTC-4, a a wrote:
> >> WHO head offers upbeat view of state of pandemic: ‘The world has never been in a better position to end it’
> >>
> >>
> >> https://www.marketwatch.com/story/who-head-offers-upbeat-view-of-state-of-pandemic-the-world-has-never-been-in-a-better-position-to-end-it-11663166440?mod=mw_latestnews
> >
> > That's because most of the vulnerables have been killed off.
> Nothing like. Most of them *have* been vaccinated and that reduces the
> risk of fatality from catching Covid-19 by about a factor of 10-20x.
#stopyourfake
--vulnerables have been killed off.

vaccination reduces nothing since covid vaccine is still an experiment

In USA alone 30,796 vaccinated patients died due to vaccination (NOP)

so about 300,000 vaccinated patients died as vaccination follow-up (NOP) world-wide

So stop fooling people

Astra Zeneca vaccine has been banned by 4 ministers of health in Europe due to side-effects
and finally banned and recycled in Europe

C EO of Pfizer experimented with his vaccine in Israel and patients rejected to get 5th dose
since should be vaccinated every 3 months due to short-term response

I got trained in covid prevemtion, detection, treatment in Wuhan early 2020
followed by courses in covid prevention , microbiology at WHO Geneva
and advised head of WHO, Tedros to announce global pandemy early March 2020

Life is for real and fakers like you try to fool us.
========
https://www.medalerts.org/vaersdb/findfield.php?EVENTS=on&PAGENO=3080&PERPAGE=10&ESORT=&REVERSESORT=&VAX=(COVID19)&DIED=Yes

From the 9/2/2022 release of VAERS data:
Found 30,796 cases where Vaccine is COVID19 and Patient Died
Government Disclaimer on use of this data

Case Details
This is page 3080 out of 3,080
Result pages: prev 3071 3072 3073 3074 3075 3076 3077 3078 3079 3080

VAERS ID: 2427223 (history)
Form: Version 2.0
Age:
Sex: Male
Location: Foreign
Vaccinated: 0000-00-00
Onset: 0000-00-00
Submitted: 0000-00-00
Entered: 2022-09-02
Vaccin­ation / Manu­facturer Lot / Dose Site / Route
COVID19: COVID19 (COVID19 (PFIZER-BIONTECH)) / PFIZER/BIONTECH - / UNK - / -

Administered by: Other Purchased by: ?
Symptoms: Death
SMQs:

Life Threatening? No
Birth Defect? No
Died? Yes
Date died: 0000-00-00
Permanent Disability? No
Recovered? No
Office Visit? No
ER Visit? No
ER or Doctor Visit? No
Hospitalized? No
Previous Vaccinations:
Other Medications:
Current Illness:
Preexisting Conditions:
Allergies:
Diagnostic Lab Data:
CDC Split Type: JPPFIZER INC202201109088

Write-up: Unknown cause of death; This is a spontaneous report received from a contactable reporter(s) (Consumer or other non HCP) from medical information team. A male patient received BNT162b2 (COMIRNATY), in 2021 as dose number unknown, single (Batch/Lot number: unknown) for covid-19 immunisation.. The patient''s relevant medical history and concomitant medications were not reported. The following information was reported: DEATH (death, medically significant), outcome "fatal", described as "Unknown cause of death". Two uncles of reporter, who were politicians, died within 1 month after receiving the vaccination last year. A local physician(s) decided that unknown cause of death. The date and cause of death for the patient were unknown. It was not reported if an autopsy was performed. Follow-up attempts are completed. No further information is expected.; Reported Cause(s) of Death: Unknown cause of death
VAERS ID: 2427224 (history)
Form: Version 2.0
Age:
Sex: Unknown
Location: Foreign
Vaccinated: 0000-00-00
Onset: 0000-00-00
Submitted: 0000-00-00
Entered: 2022-09-02
Vaccin­ation / Manu­facturer Lot / Dose Site / Route
COVID19: COVID19 (COVID19 (PFIZER-BIONTECH)) / PFIZER/BIONTECH - / UNK - / -

Administered by: Other Purchased by: ?
Symptoms: Myocarditis
SMQs:, Cardiomyopathy (broad), Drug reaction with eosinophilia and systemic symptoms syndrome (broad), Immune-mediated/autoimmune disorders (broad), Noninfectious myocarditis/pericarditis (narrow)

Life Threatening? No
Birth Defect? No
Died? Yes
Date died: 0000-00-00
Permanent Disability? No
Recovered? No
Office Visit? No
ER Visit? No
ER or Doctor Visit? No
Hospitalized? No
Previous Vaccinations:
Other Medications:
Current Illness:
Preexisting Conditions:
Allergies:
Diagnostic Lab Data:
CDC Split Type: JPPFIZER INC202201109097

Write-up: Myocarditis; This is a spontaneous report received from a contactable reporter(s) (Consumer or other non HCP) from medical information team. A patient (no qualifiers provided) received BNT162b2 (COMIRNATY), as dose number unknown, single (Batch/Lot number: unknown) for covid-19 immunisation. The patient''s relevant medical history and concomitant medications were not reported. The following information was reported: MYOCARDITIS (death, medically significant), outcome "fatal". The patient date of death was unknown. Reported cause of death: "Myocarditis". Clinical course: Meanwhile, 2 classmates of reporter receiving the vaccination died, and for both of them, the cause of death was decided to be myocarditis or something. Follow-up attempts are completed. No further information is expected.; Reported Cause(s) of Death: Myocarditis
VAERS ID: 2427225 (history)
Form: Version 2.0
Age:
Sex: Unknown
Location: Foreign
Vaccinated: 0000-00-00
Onset: 0000-00-00
Submitted: 0000-00-00
Entered: 2022-09-02
Vaccin­ation / Manu­facturer Lot / Dose Site / Route
COVID19: COVID19 (COVID19 (PFIZER-BIONTECH)) / PFIZER/BIONTECH - / UNK - / -

Administered by: Other Purchased by: ?
Symptoms: Myocarditis
SMQs:, Cardiomyopathy (broad), Drug reaction with eosinophilia and systemic symptoms syndrome (broad), Immune-mediated/autoimmune disorders (broad), Noninfectious myocarditis/pericarditis (narrow)

Life Threatening? No
Birth Defect? No
Died? Yes
Date died: 0000-00-00
Permanent Disability? No
Recovered? No
Office Visit? No
ER Visit? No
ER or Doctor Visit? No
Hospitalized? No
Previous Vaccinations:
Other Medications:
Current Illness:
Preexisting Conditions:
Allergies:
Diagnostic Lab Data:
CDC Split Type: JPPFIZER INC202201109114

Write-up: Myocarditis; This is a spontaneous report received from a contactable reporter(s) (Consumer or other non HCP) from medical information team. A patient (no qualifiers provided) received BNT162b2 (COMIRNATY), as dose number unknown, single (Batch/Lot number: unknown) for 1 day for covid-19 immunisation. The patient''s relevant medical history and concomitant medications were not reported. The following information was reported: MYOCARDITIS (death, medically significant), outcome "fatal". The patient date of death was unknown. Reported cause of death: "Myocarditis". Clinical course: Meanwhile, 2 classmates of reporter receiving the vaccination died, and for both of them, the cause of death was decided to be myocarditis or something. Follow-up attempts are completed. No further information is expected.; Reported Cause(s) of Death: Myocarditis
VAERS ID: 2427226 (history)
Form: Version 2.0
Age:
Sex: Male
Location: Foreign
Vaccinated: 0000-00-00
Onset: 0000-00-00
Submitted: 0000-00-00
Entered: 2022-09-02
Vaccin­ation / Manu­facturer Lot / Dose Site / Route
COVID19: COVID19 (COVID19 (PFIZER-BIONTECH)) / PFIZER/BIONTECH - / UNK - / -

Administered by: Other Purchased by: ?
Symptoms: Death
SMQs:

Life Threatening? No
Birth Defect? No
Died? Yes
Date died: 0000-00-00
Permanent Disability? No
Recovered? No
Office Visit? No
ER Visit? No
ER or Doctor Visit? No
Hospitalized? No
Previous Vaccinations:
Other Medications:
Current Illness:
Preexisting Conditions:
Allergies:
Diagnostic Lab Data:
CDC Split Type: JPPFIZER INC202201109388

Write-up: The patient received the vaccination with Pfizer''s COMIRNATY and died 2 days after vaccination; This is a spontaneous report received from a contactable reporter(s) (Pharmacist) from medical information team. A 79-year-old male patient received BNT162b2 (COMIRNATY), as dose number unknown, single (Batch/Lot number: unknown) for covid-19 immunisation. The patient''s relevant medical history and concomitant medications were not reported. The following information was reported: DEATH (death, medically significant), 2 days after the suspect product(s) administration, outcome "fatal", described as "The patient received the vaccination with Pfizer''s COMIRNATY and died 2 days after vaccination". The date and cause of death for the patient were unknown. The causality with the vaccine could not be ruled out. It was not reported if an autopsy was performed. The information on the batch/lot number for BNT162b2 has been requested and will be submitted if and when received.; Reported Cause(s) of Death: The patient received the vaccination with Pfizer''s COMIRNATY and died 2 days after vaccination
VAERS ID: 2427235 (history)
Form: Version 2.0
Age: 47.0
Sex: Female
Location: Foreign
Vaccinated: 2022-08-19
Onset: 2022-08-19
Days after vaccination: 0
Submitted: 0000-00-00
Entered: 2022-09-02
Vaccin­ation / Manu­facturer Lot / Dose Site / Route
COVID19: COVID19 (COVID19 (PFIZER-BIONTECH)) / PFIZER/BIONTECH - / 4 - / -

On Thursday, September 15, 2022 at 4:40:04 PM UTC-4, Martin Brown wrote:
> On 15/09/2022 14:43, Fred Bloggs wrote:
> > On Thursday, September 15, 2022 at 7:40:20 AM UTC-4, a a wrote:
> >> WHO head offers upbeat view of state of pandemic: ‘The world has never been in a better position to end it’
> >>
> >>
> >> https://www.marketwatch.com/story/who-head-offers-upbeat-view-of-state-of-pandemic-the-world-has-never-been-in-a-better-position-to-end-it-11663166440?mod=mw_latestnews
> >
> > That's because most of the vulnerables have been killed off.
> Nothing like. Most of them *have* been vaccinated and that reduces the
> risk of fatality from catching Covid-19 by about a factor of 10-20x.

That might be true in UK, but not globally. The vaccination rate in some places, especially sub-saharan Africa, is abysmal. And the vaccination rate in most others is not high enough to stop spread with any reasonable reproduction characteristic. So if the spread is being contained, it's by personal protection.
https://graphics.reuters.com/world-coronavirus-tracker-and-maps/vaccination-rollout-and-access/

>
> Having just experienced symptomatic Covid after full vaccination in the
> UK I would not have been keen to have got it in the pre-vaccine era.
>
> The Covid cough is extremely annoying (and no doubt very efficient at
> generating fine aerosols to pass on the disease).
>
> A lucky (for them) 30% of the population never develop any obvious Covid
> symptoms even when they are infected and infective.
>
> They make brilliant vectors for moving the virus around though.
>
> --
> Regards,
> Martin Brown

On Friday, 16 September 2022 at 00:41:11 UTC+2, Fred Bloggs wrote:
Fred, stop fooling poor people

--And the vaccination rate in most others is not high enough to stop spread with any reasonable reproduction characteristic.

Covid spread has nothing to do with any vacccination rate

Just look
at USA, Japan, Taiwan, South Korea

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

highest vaccination rates and highest spread rates

On 15/09/2022 23:41, Fred Bloggs wrote:
> On Thursday, September 15, 2022 at 4:40:04 PM UTC-4, Martin Brown
> wrote:
>> On 15/09/2022 14:43, Fred Bloggs wrote:
>>> On Thursday, September 15, 2022 at 7:40:20 AM UTC-4, a a wrote:
>>>> WHO head offers upbeat view of state of pandemic: ‘The world
>>>> has never been in a better position to end it’
>>>>
>>>>
>>>> https://www.marketwatch.com/story/who-head-offers-upbeat-view-of-state-of-pandemic-the-world-has-never-been-in-a-better-position-to-end-it-11663166440?mod=mw_latestnews
>>>
>>>
>>>>
That's because most of the vulnerables have been killed off.
>> Nothing like. Most of them *have* been vaccinated and that reduces
>> the risk of fatality from catching Covid-19 by about a factor of
>> 10-20x.
>
> That might be true in UK, but not globally. The vaccination rate in
> some places, especially sub-saharan Africa, is abysmal. And the

The demographics in Africa are also very different with a *much* higher
proportion of younger people in the population. It is only really the
over 45's and immunosuppressed that *must* have vaccine protection.

First world countries have a much higher proportion of frail elderly
people who are still alive when compared to third world countries.

The initial spread in Europe was so fast because it did not really show
up as anything unusual beyond a bad cold so long as it stayed in the
super fit young ski set. That made some very odd places Covid hot in the
UK - where wilderness loving types hang out.

> vaccination rate in most others is not high enough to stop spread
> with any reasonable reproduction characteristic. So if the spread is
> being contained, it's by personal protection.
> https://graphics.reuters.com/world-coronavirus-tracker-and-maps/vaccination-rollout-and-access/

The vaccination rate no longer stops Omicron infection at all (OK maybe
5-10% protection). It merely limits the damage that it can do to you.

The newest variants must be getting close to the theoretical limits for
an airborne disease infectivity by now and in the process it seems to
have become less damaging to those infected by it. BA.4 and BA.5 have
pretty much displaced all other strains in the UK and BA.5 (91%) looks
like it will see off BA.4 (7.4%) completely by the end of the year.
(all the rest taken together are now <1.6%)

Current front runners in gene sequencing are BA5.1, BA5.2 and BA5.2.1
(of which 5.2 looks to have the edge but too early to tell)

(Tab 1e in this dataset)
https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/datasets/covid19infectionsurveytechnicaldata

--
Regards,
Martin Brown

On Friday, 16 September 2022 at 16:24:36 UTC+2, bill....@ieee.org wrote:

ieee.org, stop your fake

--New Scientist has no status of scientific journal publishing peer reviewed scientific/research papers

so give up your spam

---"Vaccines cut covid spread" - medRXifgchghfhfg - suggests

"suggest" is not a correct term in science

so go away spammer, go away with your daily fake

On Friday, September 16, 2022 at 10:24:36 AM UTC-4, bill....@ieee.org wrote:
> On Friday, September 16, 2022 at 7:20:21 PM UTC+10, Martin Brown wrote:
> > On 15/09/2022 23:41, Fred Bloggs wrote:
> > > On Thursday, September 15, 2022 at 4:40:04 PM UTC-4, Martin Brown wrote:
> > >> On 15/09/2022 14:43, Fred Bloggs wrote:
> > >>> On Thursday, September 15, 2022 at 7:40:20 AM UTC-4, a a wrote:
> <snip>
> > The vaccination rate no longer stops Omicron infection at all (OK maybe
> > 5-10% protection). It merely limits the damage that it can do to you.
> The most recent New Sceintist - 10th September 2022 page 7 "Vaccines cut covid spread" - medRXivdoi.org/jbj9 - suggests that they do quite a bit better than that.
>
> Even a single dose of Covid-19 vaccine reduced the chance of infection by 23%, and each subsequent dose of vaccine cut it by another 12%.
>
> Being previousy infected but not vaccinated cut the chance of infection by only 21%, and vaccination plus previous infection cut it by 41%
> .
> Vaccination certainly doesn't prevent you getting infected but it does make it appreciably less likely, and you won't stay infectious for as long as you would have done if you hadn't been vaccinated.

You do understand they're talking about infecting cellmates, and not succumbing to infection themselves?

"Vaccinations and past infections reduce risk of spreading covid-19
Inmates in Californian prisons who got covid-19 during the omicron wave were less likely to pass it onto their cellmates if they had been vaccinated or had been infected before"
The vaccine does double duty in this setup. It reduces chance inmate becomes infectious to another inmate with reduced chance of getting infected- so there is a compounding effect in play.

>
> <snip>
>
> --
> Bill Sloman, Sydney

On 16/09/2022 15:24, Anthony William Sloman wrote:
> On Friday, September 16, 2022 at 7:20:21 PM UTC+10, Martin Brown wrote:
>> On 15/09/2022 23:41, Fred Bloggs wrote:
>>> On Thursday, September 15, 2022 at 4:40:04 PM UTC-4, Martin Brown wrote:
>>>> On 15/09/2022 14:43, Fred Bloggs wrote:
>>>>> On Thursday, September 15, 2022 at 7:40:20 AM UTC-4, a a wrote:
>
> <snip>
>
>> The vaccination rate no longer stops Omicron infection at all (OK maybe
>> 5-10% protection). It merely limits the damage that it can do to you.
>
> The most recent New Sceintist - 10th September 2022 page 7 "Vaccines cut covid spread" - medRXivdoi.org/jbj9 - suggests that they do quite a bit better than that.
>
> Even a single dose of Covid-19 vaccine reduced the chance of infection by 23%, and each subsequent dose of vaccine cut it by another 12%.
>
> Being previousy infected but not vaccinated cut the chance of infection by only 21%, and vaccination plus previous infection cut it by 41%

That was true back in September 2021 and up to and including Delta but
it sure as hell isn't true with Omicron. The thing is tearing through
the UK population with ~1 million Covid cases still live in any given
week. It has been much higher during the summer than in previous years.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-62265648

These past two weeks including me and my wife. We are scrupulous about
hygiene so it could only have been caught by aerosol ingestion. Pretty
sure we know where we caught it since others at the same event did too.

It will only get worse again as the weather gets colder and wetter.

> Vaccination certainly doesn't prevent you getting infected but it does make it appreciably less likely, and you won't stay infectious for as long as you would have done if you hadn't been vaccinated.
>
> <snip>

It makes it slightly less likely but against BA.5 and onwards it will
require the new Moderna booster (or recovering from Omicron) to have
*any* significant effect against catching it again. I expect my newly
acquired natural immunity to wane on a timescale of about 6 months.

People who have had Delta and recovered caught Omicron as little as 3
weeks later. If you imagine the original vaccines offer any realistic
protection against catching Omicron then you are seriously deluded.

https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-022-00775-3

Any protective effect of the older vaccines used as boosters wanes on a
very short timescale now. Only the bivalent one is possibly useful.

On average against all strains and time averaged the numbers you quote
might just possibly be correct. Biologists don't do maths very well.

Pfizer initially was 95% effective *against* catching it (wild strain).
AZ a less impressive 66% (or 75% if you were an optimist).

However, against the newest strains they are little more that a comfort
blanket for you to cling onto. The vaccine's main effect by *far* is to
limit the damage that the virus can do to those whom it infects.

It might slightly decrease onwards transmission but that is certainly
*not* a given. Vaccinated people feel less ill and have ambiguous
symptoms so may well be out and about spreading their disease instead of
tucked up at home in bed. Particularly a problem in the UK where going
to work with a cold or flu was once considered normal behaviour.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-wales-61037317

Sick pay in the UK is ungenerous and encourages this behaviour which is
not conducive to controlling a pandemic (not that they are trying).

--
Regards,
Martin Brown

On Saturday, 17 September 2022 at 03:31:06 UTC+2, Fred Bloggs wrote:

excellent
go into prison to spread your fake

On Saturday, 17 September 2022 at 16:09:55 UTC+2, bill....@ieee.org wrote:
#fakebylowbrainer

--ieee.org, stop your fake

---New Scientist has no status of scientific journal publishing peer reviewed scientific/research papers

-so give up your spam

----"Vaccines cut covid spread" - medRXifgchghfhfg - suggests

-"suggest" is not a correct term in science

-so go away spammer, go away with your daily fake

what @Bill suggests about Covid-19 is all but fake

On Friday, September 16, 2022 at 11:18:35 PM UTC-4, bill....@ieee.org wrote:
> On Saturday, September 17, 2022 at 11:31:06 AM UTC+10, Fred Bloggs wrote:
> > On Friday, September 16, 2022 at 10:24:36 AM UTC-4, bill....@ieee.org wrote:
> > > On Friday, September 16, 2022 at 7:20:21 PM UTC+10, Martin Brown wrote:
> > > > On 15/09/2022 23:41, Fred Bloggs wrote:
> > > > > On Thursday, September 15, 2022 at 4:40:04 PM UTC-4, Martin Brown wrote:
> > > > >> On 15/09/2022 14:43, Fred Bloggs wrote:
> > > > >>> On Thursday, September 15, 2022 at 7:40:20 AM UTC-4, a a wrote:
> > > <snip>
> > > > The vaccination rate no longer stops Omicron infection at all (OK maybe
> > > > 5-10% protection). It merely limits the damage that it can do to you.
> > > The most recent New Sceintist - 10th September 2022 page 7 "Vaccines cut covid spread" - medRXivdoi.org/jbj9 - suggests that they do quite a bit better than that.
> > >
> > > Even a single dose of Covid-19 vaccine reduced the chance of infection by 23%, and each subsequent dose of vaccine cut it by another 12%.
> > >
> > > Being previousy infected but not vaccinated cut the chance of infection by only 21%, and vaccination plus previous infection cut it by 41%
> > > .
> > > Vaccination certainly doesn't prevent you getting infected but it does make it appreciably less likely, and you won't stay infectious for as long as you would have done if you hadn't been vaccinated.
> >
> > You do understand they're talking about infecting cellmates, and not succumbing to infection themselves?
> They were clearly looking at both effects.
> > "Vaccinations and past infections reduce risk of spreading covid-19
> > Inmates in Californian prisons who got covid-19 during the omicron wave were less likely to pass it onto their cellmates if they had been vaccinated or had been infected before".
> >
> > The vaccine does double duty in this setup. It reduces chance inmate becomes infectious to another inmate with reduced chance of getting infected- so there is a compounding effect in play.
> Of course it does. Vaccination always protects both the person vaccinated by making them less likely to get infected (and less likely to get very sick if they get infected anyway) and the rest of the population. I've been beating that particular drum here for the last couple of years.

Right- but they probably have a higher vaccination rate in prison, so the study at most indicates what's possible in an ideal situation for the general population.
CIDRAP noted a more recent study in the general population (not going to hunt it down) that concluded efficacy in the vaccinated against infection by Omicron is only 25%. That number should improve to 90-something % when people start getting the bivalent vaccine.
Despite the weak protection of the population, Omicron is dying out on its own, no longer interested in infecting people, according to the CDC. You could do worse with hay fever than an Omicron infection.

>
> --
> Bill Sloman, Sydney

ok, so go into prison

On 17/09/2022 18:23, Fred Bloggs wrote:
> On Friday, September 16, 2022 at 11:18:35 PM UTC-4, bill....@ieee.org
> wrote:
>> Of course it does. Vaccination always protects both the person
>> vaccinated by making them less likely to get infected (and less
>> likely to get very sick if they get infected anyway) and the rest
>> of the population. I've been beating that particular drum here for
>> the last couple of years.

It is much less clear cut than you would like to believe.

The vaccine also makes people with Covid less likely to show classic
symptoms and be out and about merrily spreading their disease.

> Right- but they probably have a higher vaccination rate in prison, so
> the study at most indicates what's possible in an ideal situation for
> the general population. CIDRAP noted a more recent study in the
> general population (not going to hunt it down) that concluded
> efficacy in the vaccinated against infection by Omicron is only 25%.

I'm surprised that it is as high as that. UK experience is that whilst
vaccination prevents serious illness from Covid it does very little at
all to prevent onward transmission or catching it in the first place.

Despite UK rules saying 7 days is long enough to isolate I still tested
positive on the LF test fully 10 days after first showing symptoms. The
official numbers being used are way too optimistic about when it is safe
to return to work and be back in normal circulation. Then I reckon our
government really doesn't care - the tests are now chargeable.

OTOH UK has roughly 1 million Omicron cases and steady at the moment
which seems to be the long term equilibrium value at this time of year.
It was about the same this time last year too. It really took off again
after the universities went back and mixed things up.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-51768274

It also seems to be playing out the same way it did last year with a
wave of higher levels of infection sweeping down from the North (where
the weather becomes colder and wetter earlier). Scotland is a fair bit
more infected than England despite lower overall population density.

> That number should improve to 90-something % when people start
> getting the bivalent vaccine. Despite the weak protection of the
> population,

The bivalent vaccine might act to suppress it during the winter months
if we are lucky but any protection against *catching* Covid wanes
remarkably quickly. Antibodies to it only hang around for a few months.

An order of magnitude level of protection is definitely worth having -
but a few percentage points reduction is neither here nor there.

It is a feature of all coronaviruses that you can catch the exact same
variant as little as 12 months later. Current modelling suggests that we
will be lumbered with recurring Covid-19 infections going forward on
average once every 15-24 months or so. Omicron infection doesn't seem to
provide the immune boost that some of the earlier strains did:

https://www.imperial.ac.uk/news/237315/omicron-infection-poor-booster-covid-19-immunity/

> Omicron is dying out on its own, no longer interested in
> infecting people, according to the CDC. You could do worse with hay
> fever than an Omicron infection.

That certainly isn't true at all. Omicron is alive and well.

UK has an even split between BA5.1, BA5.2 and BA5.2.1 as the dominant
genotypes in play right now of which BA5.2 lineage looks to be in the
ascendant. BA.4 is now down to under 8% of all cases.

Covid-19 wasn't as bad as the worst flu I have ever had but it wasn't
all that far off.

My friend who had it long before there were any vaccines was in bed for
3 days and took about 3 weeks to fully recover so compared to him I got
off lightly. He has since had Delta again (last Xmas) but less severely.

Statistically in the UK right now if you are in a room with 50 people
then the odds are 50:50 that at least one has an active Covid infection.
(it is even higher in Scotland)

--
Regards,
Martin Brown