Space debris expert: Orbits will be lost—and people will die—later this decade

Scientists and engineers estimate that there are hundreds of thousands of pieces of orbital debris about the size of a blueberry that cannot be tracked. Given their velocities of many times the speed of sound, these small objects have the kinetic energy of a falling anvil. Then there are tens of thousands of pieces of trackable debris the size of a softball or larger that have the kinetic energy of a large bomb. While some of this debris gets dragged down into Earth's atmosphere and burns up every day, humans are rapidly creating more of it.

I think they can track the flying blueberries with a space based search radar handing off precision location cue to a ground based tracker. They should at least be able to clear a path for a launch through that cloud of debris.

https://arstechnica.com/science/2022/12/space-debris-expert-orbits-will-be-lost-and-people-will-die-later-this-decade/

On Fri, 16 Dec 2022 10:09:07 -0800 (PST), Fred Bloggs
<bloggs.fredbloggs.fred@gmail.com> wrote:

>Space debris expert: Orbits will be lost—and people will die—later this decade
>
>Scientists and engineers estimate that there are hundreds of thousands of pieces of orbital debris about the size of a blueberry that cannot be tracked. Given their velocities of many times the speed of sound, these small objects have the kinetic energy of a falling anvil. Then there are tens of thousands of pieces of trackable debris the size of a softball or larger that have the kinetic energy of a large bomb. While some of this debris gets dragged down into Earth's atmosphere and burns up every day, humans are rapidly creating more of it.
>
>I think they can track the flying blueberries with a space based search radar handing off precision location cue to a ground based tracker. They should at least be able to clear a path for a launch through that cloud of debris.
>
>https://arstechnica.com/science/2022/12/space-debris-expert-orbits-will-be-lost-and-people-will-die-later-this-decade/

Manned space flight is already dangerous, expensive, and useless.

We could save a lot of lives with the billions we are spending on an
absurd program to put a few more bootprints in the moon dust.

I wonder how close we are to Kessler Syndrome.

On a sunny day (Fri, 16 Dec 2022 11:13:46 -0800) it happened John Larkin
<jlarkin@highland_atwork_technology.com> wrote in
<8jgpphhe3lcs8orsvsqfk9gqck1pa3qn20@4ax.com>:

>On Fri, 16 Dec 2022 10:09:07 -0800 (PST), Fred Bloggs
><bloggs.fredbloggs.fred@gmail.com> wrote:
>
>>Space debris expert: Orbits will be lost—and people will die—later this decade
>>
>>Scientists and engineers estimate that there are hundreds of thousands of pieces of orbital debris about the size of a
>>blueberry that cannot be tracked. Given their velocities of many times the speed of sound, these small objects have the kinetic energy
>>of a falling anvil. Then there are tens of thousands of pieces of trackable debris the size of a softball or larger that have the
>>kinetic energy of a large bomb. While some of this debris gets dragged down into Earth's atmosphere and burns up every day,
>>humans are rapidly creating more of it.
>>
>>I think they can track the flying blueberries with a space based search radar handing off precision location cue to a ground
>>based tracker. They should at least be able to clear a path for a launch through that cloud of debris.
>>
>>https://arstechnica.com/science/2022/12/space-debris-expert-orbits-will-be-lost-and-people-will-die-later-this-decade/
>
>Manned space flight is already dangerous, expensive, and useless.
>
>We could save a lot of lives with the billions we are spending on an
>absurd program to put a few more bootprints in the moon dust.
>
>I wonder how close we are to Kessler Syndrome.

They will launch heavy armored spacecraft using fusion power
to get trough the low earth Starlink flocks.

On 16/12/2022 19:13, John Larkin wrote:
> On Fri, 16 Dec 2022 10:09:07 -0800 (PST), Fred Bloggs
> <bloggs.fredbloggs.fred@gmail.com> wrote:
>
>> Space debris expert: Orbits will be lost—and people will die—later
>> this decade
>>
>> Scientists and engineers estimate that there are hundreds of
>> thousands of pieces of orbital debris about the size of a blueberry
>> that cannot be tracked. Given their velocities of many times the
>> speed of sound, these small objects have the kinetic energy of a
>> falling anvil. Then there are tens of thousands of pieces of
>> trackable debris the size of a softball or larger that have the
>> kinetic energy of a large bomb. While some of this debris gets
>> dragged down into Earth's atmosphere and burns up every day, humans
>> are rapidly creating more of it.
>>
>> I think they can track the flying blueberries with a space based
>> search radar handing off precision location cue to a ground based
>> tracker. They should at least be able to clear a path for a launch
>> through that cloud of debris.
>>
>> https://arstechnica.com/science/2022/12/space-debris-expert-orbits-will-be-lost-and-people-will-die-later-this-decade/

This is unduly pessimistic scare mongering. The Whipple shield and its
refinements already protects the ISS from any risks from blueberry sized
impactors:

https://www.scienceabc.com/innovation/how-do-the-iss-and-other-satellites-protect-against-space-debris.html

You don't want to get too many hits though. A second hit on the same
spot might actually get through and cause a leak in the pressure vessel.
>>
> Manned space flight is already dangerous, expensive, and useless.

+1

Martin Rees is of the same opinion and has written a book on the subject
"The End of Astronauts".

https://www.hup.harvard.edu/catalog.php?isbn=9780674257726
https://www.amazon.co.uk/End-Astronauts-Robots-Future-Exploration/dp/0674257723

It is done mainly for national prestige and to provide something to do
on the ISS to pretend that it is a useful scientific investment.

I expect China will go to the moon next. I hope they visit one of the
later Apollo mission sites to bring back a couple of souvenirs just to
run the conspiracy theorists noses in it. Would also be interesting to
see how a Hassleblad stand up to half a century spent in unfiltered
sunlight. The historic Apollo 11 site should be left undisturbed.

> We could save a lot of lives with the billions we are spending on an
> absurd program to put a few more bootprints in the moon dust.

Robotic exploration probes can do a better job than humans in most cases
now. That certainly wasn't the case when Apollo 11 went to the moon.

Humans are *very* difficult to keep alive in space. Electronics and
mechanisms can survive very extreme conditions and still function.

> I wonder how close we are to Kessler Syndrome.

If someone deliberately detonates or destroys a satellite in the wrong
sort of orbit or sets out to cause trouble then it could happen. The
other scenario is that two satellites hit each other by sheer bad luck
and the large number of fragments then start a cascade failure.

BMEWS and the other early warning missile detection systems spend their
spare time (no threat detected) cataloguing every piece of space junk up
there bigger than 10cm (or with a radar echo that implies that).

It is pretty messy already:

https://orbitaldebris.jsc.nasa.gov/photo-gallery/
>

--
Regards,
Martin Brown

John Larkin wrote:
>
> Manned space flight is already dangerous, expensive, and useless.
>
> We could save a lot of lives with the billions we are spending on an
> absurd program to put a few more bootprints in the moon dust.

It was just luck that there were no solar flares during Apollo EVA's.

And the final missions, having the longest EVA's, discovered the limit
of the space suits' endurance in the environment with abrasive moon
dust.

--
Defund the Thought Police

Fred Bloggs wrote:
> Space debris expert: Orbits will be lost-and people will die-later
> this decade
>
> Scientists and engineers estimate that there are hundreds of
> thousands of pieces of orbital debris about the size of a blueberry

One of the Shuttles got a crater in a window 1 cm wide, which was caused
by a fleck of paint about 1 mm wide.

--
Defund the Thought Police

On 17/12/2022 18:50, Tom Del Rosso wrote:
> John Larkin wrote:
>>
>> Manned space flight is already dangerous, expensive, and useless.
>>
>> We could save a lot of lives with the billions we are spending on an
>> absurd program to put a few more bootprints in the moon dust.
>
> It was just luck that there were no solar flares during Apollo EVA's.

It would have only shortened their life expectancy a little if there had
been. The vehicle offered little protection from either cosmis rays or
fast protons. They did see cosmic ray flashes going through their
eyeballs from time to time which is apparently quite an experience.

1969 was pretty close to solar maximum for cycle 20 and although it
wasn't as exciting as cycle 21 it was by no means a quiet period.

https://www.weather.plus/solar-cycle-20.php

A solar flare is typically ~5 REM dose event. Astronauts going to Mars
would very likely reach their maximum lifetime allowable dose.

https://www.solarstorms.org/Smars.html
>
> And the final missions, having the longest EVA's, discovered the limit
> of the space suits' endurance in the environment with abrasive moon
> dust.

The moon dust was quite nasty stuff very angular and fine.

--
Regards,
Martin Brown

On Fri, 16 Dec 2022 10:09:07 -0800 (PST), Fred Bloggs
<bloggs.fredbloggs.fred@gmail.com> wrote:

>Space debris expert: Orbits will be lost—and people will die—later this decade

Why send people into space anyway ?

These days automatic devices can perform as well and much cheaper.

The Apollo program was the first and very expensive reality-TV show:-)

The ISS was needed to get jobs for unemployed ex-Soviet engineers so
that they wouldn't do their services to various terrorist groups and
countries.

upsidedown@downunder.com wrote:

> On Fri, 16 Dec 2022 10:09:07 -0800 (PST), Fred Bloggs
> <bloggs.fredbloggs.fred@gmail.com> wrote:
>
>>Space debris expert: Orbits will be lost�and people will die�later this
>>decade
>
> Why send people into space anyway ?
>
> These days automatic devices can perform as well and much cheaper.
>
> The Apollo program was the first and very expensive reality-TV show:-)

+1.

There is no point to sending people to LEO. Satellites are cheaper and can
do a much better job. They also do not need air to breathe.

There is no point in going to Mars. The trip will subject people to health
problems due to lack of gravity. When they get to Mars, there is no food,
water or air to sustain life. There is no magnetic field to deflect cosmic
rays. A solar mass ejection would kill everyone who is not in a tunnel or
cave for protection.

Mankind is never likely to explore the planets. Mercury and Venus cannot
offer a place to live. Mars is unlikely. There is no point in going to
Jupiter, Saturn, Uranus, or Neptune. The voyage would take too long, there
is little solar energy to grow food, and satellites are much cheaper.

Mankind needs to focus on solving the problems here on Earth. Global
Warming, water crisis, war, poverty, famine, politics, declining fertility,
and innumerable other problems must be solved if we are to survive as a
species. Space flight is a dangerous distraction from these goals.

--
MRM

On Sat, 17 Dec 2022 05:58:56 GMT, Jan Panteltje
<pNaonStpealmtje@yahoo.com> wrote:

>On a sunny day (Fri, 16 Dec 2022 11:13:46 -0800) it happened John Larkin
><jlarkin@highland_atwork_technology.com> wrote in
><8jgpphhe3lcs8orsvsqfk9gqck1pa3qn20@4ax.com>:
>
>>On Fri, 16 Dec 2022 10:09:07 -0800 (PST), Fred Bloggs
>><bloggs.fredbloggs.fred@gmail.com> wrote:
>>
>>>Space debris expert: Orbits will be lost—and people will die—later this decade
>>>
>>>Scientists and engineers estimate that there are hundreds of thousands of pieces of orbital debris about the size of a
>>>blueberry that cannot be tracked. Given their velocities of many times the speed of sound, these small objects have the kinetic energy
>>>of a falling anvil. Then there are tens of thousands of pieces of trackable debris the size of a softball or larger that have the
>>>kinetic energy of a large bomb. While some of this debris gets dragged down into Earth's atmosphere and burns up every day,
>>>humans are rapidly creating more of it.
>>>
>>>I think they can track the flying blueberries with a space based search radar handing off precision location cue to a ground
>>>based tracker. They should at least be able to clear a path for a launch through that cloud of debris.
>>>
>>>https://arstechnica.com/science/2022/12/space-debris-expert-orbits-will-be-lost-and-people-will-die-later-this-decade/
>>
>>Manned space flight is already dangerous, expensive, and useless.
>>
>>We could save a lot of lives with the billions we are spending on an
>>absurd program to put a few more bootprints in the moon dust.
>>
>>I wonder how close we are to Kessler Syndrome.
>
>They will launch heavy armored spacecraft using fusion power
>to get trough the low earth Starlink flocks.

Anything going into high orbit or beyond will pass through a Kessler
debris storm in minutes, so the risk is low. The risk is to things in
low or mid orbits.

The night sky will be cool with millions of chunks of shredded
satellites in orbit.

Fusion rockets might take some time to develop.

On a sunny day (Mon, 19 Dec 2022 17:52:16 +0200) it happened
upsidedown@downunder.com wrote in
<th11qhle1lpmmc2hnbc604rcr5l9h00r39@4ax.com>:

>On Fri, 16 Dec 2022 10:09:07 -0800 (PST), Fred Bloggs
><bloggs.fredbloggs.fred@gmail.com> wrote:
>
>>Space debris expert: Orbits will be lost—and people will die—later this decade
>
>Why send people into space anyway ?

We need, as species, to find some other solar system as our sun will
likely burn us when its dying

The problem is perhaps, and we know from alien travel guides that they warn to
avoid planet earth as it is infested by humans
those are aggressive species.
They keep some in cages like we have zoos.
So with life everywhere we may need a lot of space-force when we want to conquer
alien planets (their planets like the Spanish did in 'merrica).

Counter measures from aliens would be anti-human spray available in every drugstore
on their planets..

>These days automatic devices can perform as well and much cheaper.

For some testing yes, cannot replace us living and multiplying there.
Symbiotic life forms perhaps...

>The Apollo program was the first and very expensive reality-TV show:-)
>
>The ISS was needed to get jobs for unemployed ex-Soviet engineers so
>that they wouldn't do their services to various terrorist groups and
>countries.

On a sunny day (Mon, 19 Dec 2022 18:36:12 -0000 (UTC)) it happened Mike Monett
VE3BTI <spamme@not.com> wrote in <XnsAF728A5DF6883idtokenpost@88.198.57.247>:

>upsidedown@downunder.com wrote:
>
>> On Fri, 16 Dec 2022 10:09:07 -0800 (PST), Fred Bloggs
>> <bloggs.fredbloggs.fred@gmail.com> wrote:
>>
>>>Space debris expert: Orbits will be lost—and people will die—later this
>>>decade
>>
>> Why send people into space anyway ?
>>
>> These days automatic devices can perform as well and much cheaper.
>>
>> The Apollo program was the first and very expensive reality-TV show:-)
>
>+1.
>
>There is no point to sending people to LEO. Satellites are cheaper and can
>do a much better job. They also do not need air to breathe.
>
>There is no point in going to Mars. The trip will subject people to health
>problems due to lack of gravity. When they get to Mars, there is no food,
>water or air to sustain life. There is no magnetic field to deflect cosmic
>rays. A solar mass ejection would kill everyone who is not in a tunnel or
>cave for protection.
>
>Mankind is never likely to explore the planets. Mercury and Venus cannot
>offer a place to live. Mars is unlikely. There is no point in going to
>Jupiter, Saturn, Uranus, or Neptune. The voyage would take too long, there
>is little solar energy to grow food, and satellites are much cheaper.

That is negative, it is our nature to explore and multiply
Some satellites of our planets could very well be a place for human colonies.

>Mankind needs to focus on solving the problems here on Earth. Global
>Warming, water crisis, war, poverty, famine, politics, declining fertility,
>and innumerable other problems must be solved if we are to survive as a
>species. Space flight is a dangerous distraction from these goals.

Technology should and will (hopefully) help us there
the same tech we could test living on other worlds.
Our species would adapt in a few generations..
People who live at high altitude mountain areas have for example adapted to the thin air.

Those in Africa have adapted to the hot climate.
But having good aircos may keep some of the land that now will become useless due
to climate change stay populated.