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tech / sci.electronics.design / Re: Coronavirus in the U.S.: Latest Map and Case Count Updated Dec. 21, 2022

SubjectAuthor
* Coronavirus in the U.S.: Latest Map and Case Count Updated Dec. 21, 2022a a
`* Re: Coronavirus in the U.S.: Latest Map and Case Count Updated Dec.Fred Bloggs
 +* Re: Coronavirus in the U.S.: Latest Map and Case Count Updated Dec.a a
 |+- Re: Coronavirus in the U.S.: Latest Map and Case Count Updated Dec.Dwight Walker
 |`- Re: Coronavirus in the U.S.: Latest Map and Case Count Updated Dec.Fred Bloggs
 +- Re: Coronavirus in the U.S.: Latest Map and Case Count Updated Dec.Dwight Walker
 +- Re: Coronavirus in the U.S.: Latest Map and Case Count Updated Dec.a a
 +* Re: Coronavirus in the U.S.: Latest Map and Case Count Updated Dec.Jasen Betts
 |`- Re: Coronavirus in the U.S.: Latest Map and Case Count Updated Dec.Fred Bloggs
 `* Re: Coronavirus in the U.S.: Latest Map and Case Count Updated Dec.Martin Brown
  `- Re: Coronavirus in the U.S.: Latest Map and Case Count Updated Dec.Mega WeedMarket

1
Coronavirus in the U.S.: Latest Map and Case Count Updated Dec. 21, 2022

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Subject: Coronavirus in the U.S.: Latest Map and Case Count Updated Dec. 21, 2022
From: manta1...@gmail.com (a a)
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 by: a a - Wed, 21 Dec 2022 22:42 UTC

Coronavirus in the U.S.: Latest Map and Case Count
Updated Dec. 21, 2022

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2021/us/covid-cases.html?action=click&block=storyline_menu_recirc&is_new=false&name=styln-coronavirus%C2%AEion%3DTOP_BANNER&pgtype=LegacyCollection&variant=0_Control

Re: Coronavirus in the U.S.: Latest Map and Case Count Updated Dec. 21, 2022

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Subject: Re: Coronavirus in the U.S.: Latest Map and Case Count Updated Dec.
21, 2022
From: bloggs.f...@gmail.com (Fred Bloggs)
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 by: Fred Bloggs - Thu, 22 Dec 2022 01:10 UTC

On Wednesday, December 21, 2022 at 5:42:30 PM UTC-5, a a wrote:
> Coronavirus in the U.S.: Latest Map and Case Count
> Updated Dec. 21, 2022
>
>
> https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2021/us/covid-cases.html?action=click&block=storyline_menu_recirc&is_new=false&name=styln-coronavirus%C2%AEion%3DTOP_BANNER&pgtype=LegacyCollection&variant=0_Control

Can you explain the thinking behind using the 7-day average for case counts?

Re: Coronavirus in the U.S.: Latest Map and Case Count Updated Dec. 21, 2022

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Subject: Re: Coronavirus in the U.S.: Latest Map and Case Count Updated Dec.
21, 2022
From: manta1...@gmail.com (a a)
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 by: a a - Thu, 22 Dec 2022 01:34 UTC

On Thursday, 22 December 2022 at 02:10:46 UTC+1, Fred Bloggs wrote:
> On Wednesday, December 21, 2022 at 5:42:30 PM UTC-5, a a wrote:
> > Coronavirus in the U.S.: Latest Map and Case Count
> > Updated Dec. 21, 2022
> >
> >
> > https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2021/us/covid-cases.html?action=click&block=storyline_menu_recirc&is_new=false&name=styln-coronavirus%C2%AEion%3DTOP_BANNER&pgtype=LegacyCollection&variant=0_Control
> Can you explain the thinking behind using the 7-day average for case counts?
you are free to contact some guys behind this article, with your questions

"Credits

By Jordan Allen, Sarah Almukhtar, Aliza Aufrichtig, Anne Barnard, Matthew Bloch, Penn Bullock, Sarah Cahalan, Weiyi Cai, Julia Calderone, Keith Collins, Matthew Conlen, Lindsey Cook, Gabriel Gianordoli, Amy Harmon, Rich Harris, Adeel Hassan, Jon Huang, Danya Issawi, Danielle Ivory, K.K. Rebecca Lai, Alex Lemonides, Eleanor Lutz, Allison McCann, Richard A. Oppel Jr., Jugal K. Patel, Alison Saldanha, Kirk Semple, Shelly Seroussi, Julie Walton Shaver, Amy Schoenfeld Walker, Anjali Singhvi, Charlie Smart, Mitch Smith, Albert Sun, Rumsey Taylor, Lisa Waananen Jones, Derek Watkins, Timothy Williams, Jin Wu and Karen Yourish. · Reporting was contributed by Jeff Arnold, Ian Austen, Mike Baker, Brillian Bao, Ellen Barry, Shashank Bengali, Samone Blair, Nicholas Bogel-Burroughs, Aurelien Breeden, Elisha Brown, Emma Bubola, Maddie Burakoff, Alyssa Burr, Christopher Calabrese, Julia Carmel, Zak Cassel, Robert Chiarito, Izzy Colón, Matt Craig, Yves De Jesus, Brendon Derr, Brandon Dupré, Melissa Eddy, John Eligon, Timmy Facciola, Bianca Fortis, Jake Frankenfield, Matt Furber, Robert Gebeloff, Thomas Gibbons-Neff, Matthew Goldstein, Grace Gorenflo, Rebecca Griesbach, Benjamin Guggenheim, Barbara Harvey, Lauryn Higgins, Josh Holder, Jake Holland, Anna Joyce, John Keefe, Ann Hinga Klein, Jacob LaGesse, Alex Lim, Alex Matthews, Patricia Mazzei, Jesse McKinley, Miles McKinley, K.B. Mensah, Sarah Mervosh, Jacob Meschke, Lauren Messman, Andrea Michelson, Jaylynn Moffat-Mowatt, Steven Moity, Paul Moon, Derek M. Norman, Anahad O’Connor, Ashlyn O’Hara, Azi Paybarah, Elian Peltier, Richard Pérez-Peña, Sean Plambeck, Laney Pope, Elisabetta Povoledo, Cierra S. Queen, Savannah Redl, Scott Reinhard, Chloe Reynolds, Thomas Rivas, Frances Robles, Natasha Rodriguez, Jess Ruderman, Kai Schultz, Alex Schwartz, Emily Schwing, Libby Seline, Rachel Sherman, Sarena Snider, Brandon Thorp, Alex Traub, Maura Turcotte, Tracey Tully, Jeremy White, Kristine White, Bonnie G. Wong, Tiffany Wong, Sameer Yasir and John Yoon. · Data acquisition and additional work contributed by Will Houp, Andrew Chavez, Michael Strickland, Tiff Fehr, Miles Watkins, Josh Williams, Nina Pavlich, Carmen Cincotti, Ben Smithgall, Andrew Fischer, Rachel Shorey, Blacki Migliozzi, Alastair Coote, Jaymin Patel, John-Michael Murphy, Isaac White, Steven Speicher, Hugh Mandeville, Robin Berjon, Thu Trinh, Carolyn Price, James G. Robinson, Phil Wells, Yanxing Yang, Michael Beswetherick, Michael Robles, Nikhil Baradwaj, Ariana Giorgi, Bella Virgilio, Dylan Momplaisir, Avery Dews, Bea Malsky, Ilana Marcus, Sean Cataguni and Jason Kao.
About the data

The Times has identified reporting anomalies or methodology changes in the data.
More about reporting anomalies or changes

Confirmed cases and deaths, which are widely considered to be an undercount of the true toll, are counts of individuals whose coronavirus infections were confirmed by a molecular laboratory test. Probable cases and deaths count individuals who meet criteria for other types of testing, symptoms and exposure, as developed by national and local governments.

The map key in an earlier version of this article was mislabeled. The key showed the average number of new cases in each county per capita per day, not the total number of cases per capita in the previous seven days.

Re: Coronavirus in the U.S.: Latest Map and Case Count Updated Dec. 21, 2022

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Subject: Re: Coronavirus in the U.S.: Latest Map and Case Count Updated Dec.
21, 2022
From: dwightwa...@gmail.com (Dwight Walker)
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 by: Dwight Walker - Thu, 22 Dec 2022 01:34 UTC

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Re: Coronavirus in the U.S.: Latest Map and Case Count Updated Dec. 21, 2022

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Subject: Re: Coronavirus in the U.S.: Latest Map and Case Count Updated Dec.
21, 2022
From: manta1...@gmail.com (a a)
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 by: a a - Thu, 22 Dec 2022 01:35 UTC

On Thursday, 22 December 2022 at 02:10:46 UTC+1, Fred Bloggs wrote:
> On Wednesday, December 21, 2022 at 5:42:30 PM UTC-5, a a wrote:
> > Coronavirus in the U.S.: Latest Map and Case Count
> > Updated Dec. 21, 2022
> >
> >
> > https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2021/us/covid-cases.html?action=click&block=storyline_menu_recirc&is_new=false&name=styln-coronavirus%C2%AEion%3DTOP_BANNER&pgtype=LegacyCollection&variant=0_Control
> Can you explain the thinking behind using the 7-day average for case counts?
statistics is a science full of secrets

Re: Coronavirus in the U.S.: Latest Map and Case Count Updated Dec. 21, 2022

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Subject: Re: Coronavirus in the U.S.: Latest Map and Case Count Updated Dec.
21, 2022
From: dwightwa...@gmail.com (Dwight Walker)
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 by: Dwight Walker - Thu, 22 Dec 2022 01:35 UTC

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Subject: Re: Coronavirus in the U.S.: Latest Map and Case Count Updated Dec.
21, 2022
From: bloggs.f...@gmail.com (Fred Bloggs)
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 by: Fred Bloggs - Thu, 22 Dec 2022 03:07 UTC

On Wednesday, December 21, 2022 at 8:34:36 PM UTC-5, a a wrote:
> On Thursday, 22 December 2022 at 02:10:46 UTC+1, Fred Bloggs wrote:
> > On Wednesday, December 21, 2022 at 5:42:30 PM UTC-5, a a wrote:
> > > Coronavirus in the U.S.: Latest Map and Case Count
> > > Updated Dec. 21, 2022
> > >
> > >
> > > https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2021/us/covid-cases.html?action=click&block=storyline_menu_recirc&is_new=false&name=styln-coronavirus%C2%AEion%3DTOP_BANNER&pgtype=LegacyCollection&variant=0_Control
> > Can you explain the thinking behind using the 7-day average for case counts?
> you are free to contact some guys behind this article, with your questions
>
> "Credits
>
> By Jordan Allen, Sarah Almukhtar, Aliza Aufrichtig, Anne Barnard, Matthew Bloch, Penn Bullock, Sarah Cahalan, Weiyi Cai, Julia Calderone, Keith Collins, Matthew Conlen, Lindsey Cook, Gabriel Gianordoli, Amy Harmon, Rich Harris, Adeel Hassan, Jon Huang, Danya Issawi, Danielle Ivory, K.K. Rebecca Lai, Alex Lemonides, Eleanor Lutz, Allison McCann, Richard A. Oppel Jr., Jugal K. Patel, Alison Saldanha, Kirk Semple, Shelly Seroussi, Julie Walton Shaver, Amy Schoenfeld Walker, Anjali Singhvi, Charlie Smart, Mitch Smith, Albert Sun, Rumsey Taylor, Lisa Waananen Jones, Derek Watkins, Timothy Williams, Jin Wu and Karen Yourish. · Reporting was contributed by Jeff Arnold, Ian Austen, Mike Baker, Brillian Bao, Ellen Barry, Shashank Bengali, Samone Blair, Nicholas Bogel-Burroughs, Aurelien Breeden, Elisha Brown, Emma Bubola, Maddie Burakoff, Alyssa Burr, Christopher Calabrese, Julia Carmel, Zak Cassel, Robert Chiarito, Izzy Colón, Matt Craig, Yves De Jesus, Brendon Derr, Brandon Dupré, Melissa Eddy, John Eligon, Timmy Facciola, Bianca Fortis, Jake Frankenfield, Matt Furber, Robert Gebeloff, Thomas Gibbons-Neff, Matthew Goldstein, Grace Gorenflo, Rebecca Griesbach, Benjamin Guggenheim, Barbara Harvey, Lauryn Higgins, Josh Holder, Jake Holland, Anna Joyce, John Keefe, Ann Hinga Klein, Jacob LaGesse, Alex Lim, Alex Matthews, Patricia Mazzei, Jesse McKinley, Miles McKinley, K.B. Mensah, Sarah Mervosh, Jacob Meschke, Lauren Messman, Andrea Michelson, Jaylynn Moffat-Mowatt, Steven Moity, Paul Moon, Derek M. Norman, Anahad O’Connor, Ashlyn O’Hara, Azi Paybarah, Elian Peltier, Richard Pérez-Peña, Sean Plambeck, Laney Pope, Elisabetta Povoledo, Cierra S. Queen, Savannah Redl, Scott Reinhard, Chloe Reynolds, Thomas Rivas, Frances Robles, Natasha Rodriguez, Jess Ruderman, Kai Schultz, Alex Schwartz, Emily Schwing, Libby Seline, Rachel Sherman, Sarena Snider, Brandon Thorp, Alex Traub, Maura Turcotte, Tracey Tully, Jeremy White, Kristine White, Bonnie G. Wong, Tiffany Wong, Sameer Yasir and John Yoon. · Data acquisition and additional work contributed by Will Houp, Andrew Chavez, Michael Strickland, Tiff Fehr, Miles Watkins, Josh Williams, Nina Pavlich, Carmen Cincotti, Ben Smithgall, Andrew Fischer, Rachel Shorey, Blacki Migliozzi, Alastair Coote, Jaymin Patel, John-Michael Murphy, Isaac White, Steven Speicher, Hugh Mandeville, Robin Berjon, Thu Trinh, Carolyn Price, James G. Robinson, Phil Wells, Yanxing Yang, Michael Beswetherick, Michael Robles, Nikhil Baradwaj, Ariana Giorgi, Bella Virgilio, Dylan Momplaisir, Avery Dews, Bea Malsky, Ilana Marcus, Sean Cataguni and Jason Kao.
> About the data
>
> The Times has identified reporting anomalies or methodology changes in the data.
> More about reporting anomalies or changes
>
> Confirmed cases and deaths, which are widely considered to be an undercount of the true toll, are counts of individuals whose coronavirus infections were confirmed by a molecular laboratory test. Probable cases and deaths count individuals who meet criteria for other types of testing, symptoms and exposure, as developed by national and local governments.
>
>
> The map key in an earlier version of this article was mislabeled. The key showed the average number of new cases in each county per capita per day, not the total number of cases per capita in the previous seven days.

That's a lot of people to produce such scant bar graphs and whatever else. What makes you think they know anything about it?

Getting back to the 7-day average, does incubation period have any bearing on it? And what else? Why is this data even published? Who uses it?

Re: Coronavirus in the U.S.: Latest Map and Case Count Updated Dec. 21, 2022

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From: use...@revmaps.no-ip.org (Jasen Betts)
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Subject: Re: Coronavirus in the U.S.: Latest Map and Case Count Updated Dec.
21, 2022
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 by: Jasen Betts - Thu, 22 Dec 2022 04:33 UTC

On 2022-12-22, Fred Bloggs <bloggs.fredbloggs.fred@gmail.com> wrote:
> On Wednesday, December 21, 2022 at 5:42:30 PM UTC-5, a a wrote:
>> Coronavirus in the U.S.: Latest Map and Case Count
>> Updated Dec. 21, 2022
>>
>>
>> https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2021/us/covid-cases.html?action=click&block=storyline_menu_recirc&is_new=false&name=styln-coronavirus%C2%AEion%3DTOP_BANNER&pgtype=LegacyCollection&variant=0_Control
>
>
> Can you explain the thinking behind using the 7-day average for case counts?

The virus is contagoius, it spreads by socialisation. Social behaviour
follows a 7 day cycle, you may have noticed this, it's callesd a week.

A 7 day average hides this making the trend more obvious.

--
Jasen.

Re: Coronavirus in the U.S.: Latest Map and Case Count Updated Dec. 21, 2022

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From: '''newsp...@nonad.co.uk (Martin Brown)
Newsgroups: sci.electronics.design
Subject: Re: Coronavirus in the U.S.: Latest Map and Case Count Updated Dec.
21, 2022
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 by: Martin Brown - Thu, 22 Dec 2022 08:29 UTC

On 22/12/2022 01:10, Fred Bloggs wrote:
> On Wednesday, December 21, 2022 at 5:42:30 PM UTC-5, a a wrote:
>> Coronavirus in the U.S.: Latest Map and Case Count
>> Updated Dec. 21, 2022
>>
>>
>> https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2021/us/covid-cases.html?action=click&block=storyline_menu_recirc&is_new=false&name=styln-coronavirus%C2%AEion%3DTOP_BANNER&pgtype=LegacyCollection&variant=0_Control
>
>
> Can you explain the thinking behind using the 7-day average for case counts?

It is very simple. Boxcar average over 7 days makes the weekend
fluctuations present in reporting systems effectively disappear.

Otherwise you see a distracting noisy 5:2 waveform much like you would
with energy use in a home or a business for weekdays vs weekends. If you
look at some of the early daily data you can see how messy it looks if
you plot it daily. Averaging also smooths out some of the noise which is
beneficial for seeing the trend. This is one UK graph with daily data
(despite saying updated 7 days ago my copy is stuck end date 18 May).

https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/cases

UK is back on a rising trend going into Xmas (predictable since mixing
university students back into the general population spread disease).

https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/articles/coronaviruscovid19latestinsights/infections

You are more concerned if there is a rising trend with time than you are
about one isolated day being higher.

--
Regards,
Martin Brown

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Subject: Re: Coronavirus in the U.S.: Latest Map and Case Count Updated Dec.
21, 2022
From: bloggs.f...@gmail.com (Fred Bloggs)
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 by: Fred Bloggs - Thu, 22 Dec 2022 15:28 UTC

On Thursday, December 22, 2022 at 12:00:43 AM UTC-5, Jasen Betts wrote:
> On 2022-12-22, Fred Bloggs <bloggs.fred...@gmail.com> wrote:
> > On Wednesday, December 21, 2022 at 5:42:30 PM UTC-5, a a wrote:
> >> Coronavirus in the U.S.: Latest Map and Case Count
> >> Updated Dec. 21, 2022
> >>
> >>
> >> https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2021/us/covid-cases.html?action=click&block=storyline_menu_recirc&is_new=false&name=styln-coronavirus%C2%AEion%3DTOP_BANNER&pgtype=LegacyCollection&variant=0_Control
> >
> >
> > Can you explain the thinking behind using the 7-day average for case counts?
> The virus is contagoius, it spreads by socialisation. Social behaviour
> follows a 7 day cycle, you may have noticed this, it's callesd a week.

Okay, you're getting close, but no cigar.

According to John Hopkins (JHU) they use 7-day to prevent corruption of the trend calculation for the simple reason that most, not all, testing facilities are closed on Sunday. Apparently the reporting requirements change all the time too, for any number of reasons, some quite technical, and it looks like those new requirements generally go into effect on Mondays.
The JHU data 7-day average daily result is the average of that day with the preceding 3 days and the following 3 days- a 3-day delay at least. I'm sure the reporting delay is longer because the whole country/ world isn't plugged into a synchronized cloud storage the public health authorities can access instantly. You would be surprised at how many places still use FAX and manual data entry.

>
> A 7 day average hides this making the trend more obvious.

That works if the statistical character of the data fluctuation about the mean is random enough to zero out, or close enough, its contribution to the mean. There are variation tests they can run on the real data to validate or invalidate that assumption. There are other things they can do to "adjust" the raw data, to achieve even more filtering. The main statistic the public health authorities are after is the time rate of change of the estimated mean- against which they can gauge the effectiveness, or ineffectiveness, of their prevention and treatment campaigns.

>
> --
> Jasen.

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