Antarctic ice loss is a 5-sigma event. Threshold for runaway albedo loss and accelerated global warming to doom has been crossed- and actually it was put in motion quite some time ago- planet is not going hang out a sign telling you that.

Petra Heil, a sea ice physicist from the Australian Antarctic Division, told the ABC, “We might end up in a new state. That would be quite concerning to the sustainability of human conditions on Earth, I suspect.”

A much hotter environment has frightening implications for human health. It could also destroy the fish we rely on for food, the farmland where we grow crops, and the rainforests we need for oxygen.

“I think a lot of people have the time line too long out, saying this won’t affect them,” Heil told the ABC. “I’m pretty convinced that this is something my generation will experience.”

It's over.

https://news.yahoo.com/once-every-7-5-million-180000122.html

On Friday, August 11, 2023 at 10:14:58 AM UTC-4, Anthony William Sloman wrote:
> On Friday, August 11, 2023 at 10:32:59 AM UTC+10, Fred Bloggs wrote:
> > Antarctic ice loss is a 5-sigma event. Threshold for runaway albedo loss and accelerated global warming to doom has been crossed- and actually it was put in motion quite some time ago- planet is not going hang out a sign telling you that.
> >
> > Petra Heil, a sea ice physicist from the Australian Antarctic Division, told the ABC, “We might end up in a new state. That would be quite concerning to the sustainability of human conditions on Earth, I suspect.”
> >
> > A much hotter environment has frightening implications for human health.. It could also destroy the fish we rely on for food, the farmland where we grow crops, and the rainforests we need for oxygen.
> >
> > “I think a lot of people have the time line too long out, saying this won’t affect them,” Heil told the ABC. “I’m pretty convinced that this is something my generation will experience.”
> >
> > It's over.
> >
> > https://news.yahoo.com/once-every-7-5-million-180000122.html
> It's a bit silly to call it a "once in 7.5 million year event". If the distribution of sea ice area were described by a Gaussian distribution, an event this far away from the mean might only happen once every 7.5 million years due to random fluctuation, but the whole point of the observation is that we are seeing a switch to a different sort of behavior and that there's likely to be a lot less sea ice from now on.

Right, that was the point of their title: to say the current ice situation has chance of less than one in a million of occurrence under the assumption of random fluctuation in an unchanged climate system. The logical deduction to be made here is the underlying assumption is very probably no longer valid, and that is the climate system is very much not unchanged.
>
> The current sequence of ice ages and interglacials began about 2.6 million year ago. There was probably quite a bit less sea ice around Antarctica before they got under way, so what we are seeing now might be a reversion to state that prevailed rather less than 7.5 millions years ago.

That's physics part, the life sciences part is human kind will go extinct. It was just recently reported this kind of thing has happened in the past, as evidenced by big gaps, as in 200,000 year gaps, in the archeological remnants of previous proto-people. Some group in southern Europe was driven to extinction 1.1 million years ago by a colder than cold glacial period, using this same criteria to infer extinction.

It's going to happen again, except this time it will be heat.

>
> --
> Bill Sloman, Sydney

On Friday, August 11, 2023 at 10:14:58 AM UTC-4, Anthony William Sloman wrote:
> On Friday, August 11, 2023 at 10:32:59 AM UTC+10, Fred Bloggs wrote:
> > Antarctic ice loss is a 5-sigma event. Threshold for runaway albedo loss and accelerated global warming to doom has been crossed- and actually it was put in motion quite some time ago- planet is not going hang out a sign telling you that.
> >
> > Petra Heil, a sea ice physicist from the Australian Antarctic Division, told the ABC, “We might end up in a new state. That would be quite concerning to the sustainability of human conditions on Earth, I suspect.”
> >
> > A much hotter environment has frightening implications for human health.. It could also destroy the fish we rely on for food, the farmland where we grow crops, and the rainforests we need for oxygen.
> >
> > “I think a lot of people have the time line too long out, saying this won’t affect them,” Heil told the ABC. “I’m pretty convinced that this is something my generation will experience.”
> >
> > It's over.
> >
> > https://news.yahoo.com/once-every-7-5-million-180000122.html
> It's a bit silly to call it a "once in 7.5 million year event". If the distribution of sea ice area were described by a Gaussian distribution, an event this far away from the mean might only happen once every 7.5 million years due to random fluctuation, but the whole point of the observation is that we are seeing a switch to a different sort of behavior and that there's likely to be a lot less sea ice from now on.
>
> The current sequence of ice ages and interglacials began about 2.6 million year ago. There was probably quite a bit less sea ice around Antarctica before they got under way, so what we are seeing now might be a reversion to state that prevailed rather less than 7.5 millions years ago.

Here's an interesting article about sigma and statistical significance of experimental results discussing the more subtle pitfalls of data science driven (mindless) interpretation of data sets. It's very easy for people to make fools of themselves. The traditional sigmas, even 5 or 6, may not be good enough depending on the scientific significance of the results.

https://news.mit.edu/2012/explained-sigma-0209

>
> --
> Bill Sloman, Sydney

On Friday, August 11, 2023 at 11:50:00 AM UTC-4, Anthony William Sloman wrote:
> On Saturday, August 12, 2023 at 1:35:30 AM UTC+10, Fred Bloggs wrote:
> > On Friday, August 11, 2023 at 10:14:58 AM UTC-4, Anthony William Sloman wrote:
> > > On Friday, August 11, 2023 at 10:32:59 AM UTC+10, Fred Bloggs wrote:
> > > > Antarctic ice loss is a 5-sigma event. Threshold for runaway albedo loss and accelerated global warming to doom has been crossed- and actually it was put in motion quite some time ago- planet is not going hang out a sign telling you that.
> > > >
> > > > Petra Heil, a sea ice physicist from the Australian Antarctic Division, told the ABC, “We might end up in a new state. That would be quite concerning to the sustainability of human conditions on Earth, I suspect.”
> > > >
> > > > A much hotter environment has frightening implications for human health. It could also destroy the fish we rely on for food, the farmland where we grow crops, and the rainforests we need for oxygen.
> > > >
> > > > “I think a lot of people have the time line too long out, saying this won’t affect them,” Heil told the ABC. “I’m pretty convinced that this is something my generation will experience.”
> > > >
> > > > It's over.
> > > >
> > > > https://news.yahoo.com/once-every-7-5-million-180000122.html
> > >
> > > It's a bit silly to call it a "once in 7.5 million year event". If the distribution of sea ice area were described by a Gaussian distribution, an event this far away from the mean might only happen once every 7.5 million years due to random fluctuation, but the whole point of the observation is that we are seeing a switch to a different sort of behavior and that there's likely to be a lot less sea ice from now on.
> > Right, that was the point of their title: to say the current ice situation has chance of less than one in a million of occurrence under the assumption of random fluctuation in an unchanged climate system. The logical deduction to be made here is the underlying assumption is very probably no longer valid, and that is the climate system is very much not unchanged.
> > >
> > > The current sequence of ice ages and interglacials began about 2.6 million year ago. There was probably quite a bit less sea ice around Antarctica before they got under way, so what we are seeing now might be a reversion to state that prevailed rather less than 7.5 millions years ago.
> > That's physics part, the life sciences part is human kind will go extinct. It was just recently reported this kind of thing has happened in the past, as evidenced by big gaps, as in 200,000 year gaps, in the archeological remnants of previous proto-people. Some group in southern Europe was driven to extinction 1.1 million years ago by a colder than cold glacial period, using this same criteria to infer extinction.
> >
> > It's going to happen again, except this time it will be heat.
> Don't be silly. The proto-people were living on the coast during the glacial periods, and the sea level is about 100 metres lower in an ice age than it is in an interglacial.
>
> https://research.csiro.au/slrwavescoast/sea-level/sea-level-changes/
>
> Archeologists aren't yet into digging up the Dogger Bank for human archeological remnants.

That's just crazy. Are you telling me not one of them could trek uphill 100m to drown in a tar pit for posterity, and in a period of 200,000 years.

>
> We might see a population crash, but extinction is very unlikely. People will move away from the equator to places that are cooler. They might not all make it.

Cooler is not the word for it. Less of a furnace is what you mean.

>
> Tasmania might get a bit crowded, but it is as big as Ireland, with a tenth of the population.
>
> --
> Bill Sloman, Sydney

On Friday, August 11, 2023 at 12:23:45 PM UTC-4, Anthony William Sloman wrote:
> On Saturday, August 12, 2023 at 1:55:38 AM UTC+10, Fred Bloggs wrote:
> > On Friday, August 11, 2023 at 11:50:00 AM UTC-4, Anthony William Sloman wrote:
> > > On Saturday, August 12, 2023 at 1:35:30 AM UTC+10, Fred Bloggs wrote:
> > > > On Friday, August 11, 2023 at 10:14:58 AM UTC-4, Anthony William Sloman wrote:
> > > > > On Friday, August 11, 2023 at 10:32:59 AM UTC+10, Fred Bloggs wrote:
> > > > > > Antarctic ice loss is a 5-sigma event. Threshold for runaway albedo loss and accelerated global warming to doom has been crossed- and actually it was put in motion quite some time ago- planet is not going hang out a sign telling you that.
> > > > > >
> > > > > > Petra Heil, a sea ice physicist from the Australian Antarctic Division, told the ABC, “We might end up in a new state. That would be quite concerning to the sustainability of human conditions on Earth, I suspect.”
> > > > > >
> > > > > > A much hotter environment has frightening implications for human health. It could also destroy the fish we rely on for food, the farmland where we grow crops, and the rainforests we need for oxygen.
> > > > > >
> > > > > > “I think a lot of people have the time line too long out, saying this won’t affect them,” Heil told the ABC. “I’m pretty convinced that this is something my generation will experience.”
> > > > > >
> > > > > > It's over.
> > > > > >
> > > > > > https://news.yahoo.com/once-every-7-5-million-180000122.html
> > > > >
> > > > > It's a bit silly to call it a "once in 7.5 million year event". If the distribution of sea ice area were described by a Gaussian distribution, an event this far away from the mean might only happen once every 7.5 million years due to random fluctuation, but the whole point of the observation is that we are seeing a switch to a different sort of behavior and that there's likely to be a lot less sea ice from now on.
> > > > Right, that was the point of their title: to say the current ice situation has chance of less than one in a million of occurrence under the assumption of random fluctuation in an unchanged climate system. The logical deduction to be made here is the underlying assumption is very probably no longer valid, and that is the climate system is very much not unchanged.
> > > > >
> > > > > The current sequence of ice ages and interglacials began about 2.6 million year ago. There was probably quite a bit less sea ice around Antarctica before they got under way, so what we are seeing now might be a reversion to state that prevailed rather less than 7.5 millions years ago.
> > > > That's physics part, the life sciences part is human kind will go extinct. It was just recently reported this kind of thing has happened in the past, as evidenced by big gaps, as in 200,000 year gaps, in the archeological remnants of previous proto-people. Some group in southern Europe was driven to extinction 1.1 million years ago by a colder than cold glacial period, using this same criteria to infer extinction.
> > > >
> > > > It's going to happen again, except this time it will be heat.
> > > Don't be silly. The proto-people were living on the coast during the glacial periods, and the sea level is about 100 metres lower in an ice age than it is in an interglacial.
> > >
> > > https://research.csiro.au/slrwavescoast/sea-level/sea-level-changes/
> > >
> > > Archeologists aren't yet into digging up the Dogger Bank for human archeological remnants.
> >
> > That's just crazy. Are you telling me not one of them could trek uphill 100m to drown in a tar pit for posterity, and in a period of 200,000 years..
> There's only one human ever found in the La Brea Tar Pits - and she was from 10,220-10,250 years ago, which is to say the current interglacial. I don't know of any tar pits around the North Sea. Archeological traces are rare - there weren't that many humans around back then, and if most of them were living in area that are now under North Sea it's no surprise that we don't find many remnants in places that were hundred of miles away from there,

The subjects of the most recent research were in southern Europe Iberia, modern Spain and Portugal.

>
> --
> Bill Sloman, Sydney