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tech / sci.electronics.design / Re: O/T but funny: Bard gives gambling advice

SubjectAuthor
* O/T but funny: Bard gives gambling adviceRichD
`* Re: O/T but funny: Bard gives gambling adviceCursitor Doom
 +- Re: O/T but funny: Bard gives gambling adviceAnthony William Sloman
 `- Re: O/T but funny: Bard gives gambling adviceRichD

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O/T but funny: Bard gives gambling advice

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Subject: O/T but funny: Bard gives gambling advice
From: r_delane...@yahoo.com (RichD)
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 by: RichD - Sun, 31 Dec 2023 01:34 UTC

"I am playing a fair even money game flipping coins.
My opponent cannot quit. I intend to quit any time I
get one bet ahead. Do I have an advantage?"

Bard:
Yes, you do have an advantage in this scenario. Here's why:
Limited downside: Since you are guaranteed to quit after winning
one bet, your maximum possible loss is limited to losing your initial bet.

Unlimited upside: Your potential winnings, on the other hand, are
unlimited. As long as you keep winning individual flips, you can
keep doubling your money.

Probability still in your favor: Each coin flip is still a 50/50 chance
of winning, favoring you just like even-money odds suggest. So,
statistically speaking, you're more likely to win any individual flip
than lose it.

--
Rich

Re: O/T but funny: Bard gives gambling advice

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From: cd...@notformail.com (Cursitor Doom)
Newsgroups: sci.electronics.design
Subject: Re: O/T but funny: Bard gives gambling advice
Date: Sun, 31 Dec 2023 17:37:23 +0000
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 by: Cursitor Doom - Sun, 31 Dec 2023 17:37 UTC

On Sat, 30 Dec 2023 17:34:12 -0800 (PST), RichD
<r_delaney2001@yahoo.com> wrote:

>"I am playing a fair even money game flipping coins.
>My opponent cannot quit. I intend to quit any time I
>get one bet ahead. Do I have an advantage?"
>
>Bard:
>Yes, you do have an advantage in this scenario. Here's why:
>Limited downside: Since you are guaranteed to quit after winning
>one bet, your maximum possible loss is limited to losing your initial bet.
>
>Unlimited upside: Your potential winnings, on the other hand, are
>unlimited. As long as you keep winning individual flips, you can
>keep doubling your money.
>
>Probability still in your favor: Each coin flip is still a 50/50 chance
>of winning, favoring you just like even-money odds suggest. So,
>statistically speaking, you're more likely to win any individual flip
>than lose it.

I don't follow. Sounds like a non-sequitur.

Re: O/T but funny: Bard gives gambling advice

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Subject: Re: O/T but funny: Bard gives gambling advice
From: bill.slo...@ieee.org (Anthony William Sloman)
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 by: Anthony William Slom - Mon, 1 Jan 2024 16:05 UTC

On Monday, January 1, 2024 at 4:37:31 AM UTC+11, Cursitor Doom wrote:
> On Sat, 30 Dec 2023 17:34:12 -0800 (PST), RichD
> <r_dela...@yahoo.com> wrote:
>
> >"I am playing a fair even money game flipping coins.
> >My opponent cannot quit. I intend to quit any time I
> >get one bet ahead. Do I have an advantage?"
> >
> >Bard:
> >Yes, you do have an advantage in this scenario. Here's why:
> >Limited downside: Since you are guaranteed to quit after winning
> >one bet, your maximum possible loss is limited to losing your initial bet.
> >
> >Unlimited upside: Your potential winnings, on the other hand, are
> >unlimited. As long as you keep winning individual flips, you can
> >keep doubling your money.
> >
> >Probability still in your favor: Each coin flip is still a 50/50 chance
> >of winning, favoring you just like even-money odds suggest. So,
> >statistically speaking, you're more likely to win any individual flip
> >than lose it.
>
> I don't follow. Sounds like a non-sequitur.

It is. The point is that while your loss is limited to losing your initial bet, you do that half the time and while a prolonged winning streak is atheoretical possibility, is is very improbable, and if you sum over all possible games you still end up even.

Since you can't live forever, you can sum over all possible games. Your opponent is going to run out of money long before you drop dead, so summing over "all possible games" isn't going require much computation.

--
Bill Sloman, Sydney

Re: O/T but funny: Bard gives gambling advice

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Subject: Re: O/T but funny: Bard gives gambling advice
From: r_delane...@yahoo.com (RichD)
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 by: RichD - Sat, 6 Jan 2024 18:56 UTC

On December 31, Cursitor Doom wrote:
>> "I am playing a fair even money game flipping coins.
>> My opponent cannot quit. I intend to quit any time I
>> get one bet ahead. Do I have an advantage?"
>> Bard:
>> Yes, you do have an advantage in this scenario. Here's why:
>> Limited downside: Since you are guaranteed to quit after winning
>> one bet, your maximum possible loss is limited to losing your initial bet.
>> Unlimited upside: Your potential winnings, on the other hand, are
>> unlimited. As long as you keep winning individual flips, you can
>> keep doubling your money.
>> Probability still in your favor: Each coin flip is still a 50/50 chance
>> of winning, favoring you just like even-money odds suggest. So,
>> statistically speaking, you're more likely to win any individual flip
>> than lose it.
>
> I don't follow. Sounds like a non-sequitur.

haha, exactly! Bard's answer is absurd, a non sequitur.

Google's state of the art AI evidently can read, but understanding
remains elusive -

--
Rich

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