Nearly 70% of Americans surveyed by the American Psychological Association said they “are worried the invasion of Ukraine is going to lead to nuclear war, and that they fear that we are at the beginning stages of World War III.”
https://www.cnbc.com/2022/04/05/hypothetical-nuclear-attack.html

https://www.apa.org/news/press/releases/stress/2022/march-2022-survival-mode

https://www.apa.org/images/march-2022-sources-stress_tcm7-302725_w1024_n.png

https://www.apa.org/images/march-2022-ukraine_tcm7-302726_w1024_n.png

>Czech Republic becomes first Nato country to send tanks to Ukraine
https://uk.news.yahoo.com/czech-republic-becomes-first-nato-171434809.html

>EU develops strategic reserves for chemical, biological and radio-nuclear emergencies

>As an immediate first step, the EU has mobilised its rescEU medical reserve to procure potassium iodide tablets which can be used to protect people from the harmful effects of radiation. Already almost 3 million iodide tablets have been delivered to Ukraine via the EU Civil Protection Mechanism, with the help of France and Spain.

>On this occasion Janez Lenarčič, Commissioner for Crisis Management said: “We are taking concrete measures to increase Europe's preparedness in the face of potential threats. We are setting up both a decontamination reserve and a new stockpile of equipment tailored to chemical, biological or nuclear emergencies. I am thankful for Member States in this effort. Our aim is to provide rapid response capabilities for our citizens if such an emergency ever occurs.”
https://ec.europa.eu/commission/presscorner/detail/en/ip_22_2218

On 4/6/2022 12:59 AM, Matthew wrote:
> Nearly 70% of Americans surveyed by the American Psychological Association said they “are worried the invasion of Ukraine is going to lead to nuclear war, and that they fear that we are at the beginning stages of World War III.”
> https://www.cnbc.com/2022/04/05/hypothetical-nuclear-attack.html

Well, It is a concern.
Worry?
There are plenty of things I am more worried about.
I doubt this will escalate into the use of nuclear war.
I very much doubt there will be wide-spread use of nukes.

"a425couple" wrote in message news:gRi3K.622854$oF2.189822@fx10.iad...

On 4/6/2022 12:59 AM, Matthew wrote:
> Nearly 70% of Americans surveyed by the American Psychological Association
> said they “are worried the invasion of Ukraine is going to lead to nuclear
> war, and that they fear that we are at the beginning stages of World War
> III.”
> https://www.cnbc.com/2022/04/05/hypothetical-nuclear-attack.html

Well, It is a concern.
Worry?
There are plenty of things I am more worried about.
I doubt this will escalate into the use of nuclear war.
I very much doubt there will be wide-spread use of nukes.

------------------------

Realistically the worst outcome for Russia is to be scorned and isolated,
which the USSR survived for a lifetime. They aren't worth invading.

That doesn't mean they will respond to defeat rationally.

It will begin with deniability, not directly.

>The U.S. authorities uncovered numerous attempts by Al-Qaeda to obtain nuclear materials and fear that terrorists have already bought uranium.
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/wikileaks/8471907/WikiLeaks-Guantanamo-Bay-terrorist-secrets-revealed.html

>...at least four attempts in five years in which criminal networks with suspected Russian ties sought to sell radioactive material to extremists through Moldova, an investigation by The Associated Press has found. One investigation uncovered an attempt to sell bomb-grade uranium to a real buyer from the Middle East
>smugglers are explicitly targeting buyers who are enemies of the West.
>The man behind the bomb-grade uranium deal was Alexandr Agheenco, known as "the colonel"...
>...the colonel fled with his infant son through Ukraine to Russia shortly after the bust
https://apnews.com/article/9f77a17c001f4cf3baeb28990b0d92eb

>North Korea has a record of missile sales and nuclear technology sharing with countries including Egypt, Iran, Libya, Myanmar, Syria, the United Arab Emirates, Vietnam, and Yemen.
https://www.cfr.org/backgrounder/north-korea-nuclear-weapons-missile-tests-military-capabilities

>“I would say simply that I’m not overly optimistic at the prospects of actually getting an agreement to conclusion,” Mr. Blinken said, “despite all the efforts we put into it and despite the fact that I believe … our security would be better off. We’re not there.”
https://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2022/apr/6/blinken-not-overly-optimistic-iran-deal-talks-drag

On Wednesday, April 6, 2022 at 12:51:06 PM UTC-4, Jim Wilkins wrote:
> "a425couple" wrote in message news:gRi3K.622854$oF2.1...@fx10.iad...
> On 4/6/2022 12:59 AM, Matthew wrote:
> > Nearly 70% of Americans surveyed by the American Psychological Association
> > said they “are worried the invasion of Ukraine is going to lead to nuclear
> > war, and that they fear that we are at the beginning stages of World War
> > III.”
> > https://www.cnbc.com/2022/04/05/hypothetical-nuclear-attack.html
>
> Well, It is a concern.
> Worry?
> There are plenty of things I am more worried about.
> I doubt this will escalate into the use of nuclear war.
> I very much doubt there will be wide-spread use of nukes.
> ------------------------
>
> Realistically the worst outcome for Russia is to be scorned and isolated,
> which the USSR survived for a lifetime. They aren't worth invading.
>
> That doesn't mean they will respond to defeat rationally.

I agree with all your points except that Russia isn't worth invading. I would say that is correct as far as the west is concerned. However, even as they seem to be on good terms with China, the Chinese still claim most of Siberia as theirs. The Chinese at some point may very well decide Russia is worth invading. Siberia does have a lot of natural resources that will become even more accessible with global climate change.

Dean

On Wednesday, April 6, 2022 at 1:35:28 PM UTC-4, Matthew wrote:
> It will begin with deniability, not directly.
>
> >The U.S. authorities uncovered numerous attempts by Al-Qaeda to obtain nuclear materials and fear that terrorists have already bought uranium.
> https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/wikileaks/8471907/WikiLeaks-Guantanamo-Bay-terrorist-secrets-revealed.html
>
> >...at least four attempts in five years in which criminal networks with suspected Russian ties sought to sell radioactive material to extremists through Moldova, an investigation by The Associated Press has found. One investigation uncovered an attempt to sell bomb-grade uranium to a real buyer from the Middle East
> >smugglers are explicitly targeting buyers who are enemies of the West.
> >The man behind the bomb-grade uranium deal was Alexandr Agheenco, known as "the colonel"...
> >...the colonel fled with his infant son through Ukraine to Russia shortly after the bust
> https://apnews.com/article/9f77a17c001f4cf3baeb28990b0d92eb
>
> >North Korea has a record of missile sales and nuclear technology sharing with countries including Egypt, Iran, Libya, Myanmar, Syria, the United Arab Emirates, Vietnam, and Yemen.
> https://www.cfr.org/backgrounder/north-korea-nuclear-weapons-missile-tests-military-capabilities
>
> >“I would say simply that I’m not overly optimistic at the prospects of actually getting an agreement to conclusion,” Mr. Blinken said, “despite all the efforts we put into it and despite the fact that I believe … our security would be better off. We’re not there.”
> https://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2022/apr/6/blinken-not-overly-optimistic-iran-deal-talks-drag

Whoever decides to use a nuclear weapon may very well deny being responsible. However, within a few hours of a detonation, the fallout will be analyzed and it is very traceable to it's user.

On 4/6/2022 11:32 AM, Dean Markley wrote:
> On Wednesday, April 6, 2022 at 12:51:06 PM UTC-4, Jim Wilkins wrote:
>> "a425couple" wrote in message news:gRi3K.622854$oF2.1...@fx10.iad...
>> On 4/6/2022 12:59 AM, Matthew wrote:
>>> Nearly 70% of Americans surveyed by the American Psychological Association
>>> said they “are worried the invasion of Ukraine is going to lead to nuclear
>>> war, and that they fear that we are at the beginning stages of World War
>>> III.”
>>> https://www.cnbc.com/2022/04/05/hypothetical-nuclear-attack.html
>>
>> Well, It is a concern.
>> Worry?
>> There are plenty of things I am more worried about.
>> I doubt this will escalate into the use of nuclear war.
>> I very much doubt there will be wide-spread use of nukes.
>> ------------------------
>>
>> Realistically the worst outcome for Russia is to be scorned and isolated,
>> which the USSR survived for a lifetime. They aren't worth invading.
>>
>> That doesn't mean they will respond to defeat rationally.
>
> I agree with all your points except that Russia isn't worth invading.
I would say that is correct as far as the west is concerned. However,
even as they seem to be on good terms with China, the Chinese still
claim most of Siberia as theirs. The Chinese at some point may very
well decide Russia is worth invading. Siberia does have a lot of
natural resources that will become even more accessible with global
climate change.
>
> Dean

It is good to see you still reading and posting Dean.
Did you notice in my Quora post, the opinions
of another 'old time' poster from here & the naval group,
Juergen Nieveler ?

On Thursday, April 7, 2022 at 2:01:52 PM UTC-4, a425couple wrote:
> On 4/6/2022 11:32 AM, Dean Markley wrote:
> > On Wednesday, April 6, 2022 at 12:51:06 PM UTC-4, Jim Wilkins wrote:
> >> "a425couple" wrote in message news:gRi3K.622854$oF2.1...@fx10.iad...
> >> On 4/6/2022 12:59 AM, Matthew wrote:
> >>> Nearly 70% of Americans surveyed by the American Psychological Association
> >>> said they “are worried the invasion of Ukraine is going to lead to nuclear
> >>> war, and that they fear that we are at the beginning stages of World War
> >>> III.”
> >>> https://www.cnbc.com/2022/04/05/hypothetical-nuclear-attack.html
> >>
> >> Well, It is a concern.
> >> Worry?
> >> There are plenty of things I am more worried about.
> >> I doubt this will escalate into the use of nuclear war.
> >> I very much doubt there will be wide-spread use of nukes.
> >> ------------------------
> >>
> >> Realistically the worst outcome for Russia is to be scorned and isolated,
> >> which the USSR survived for a lifetime. They aren't worth invading.
> >>
> >> That doesn't mean they will respond to defeat rationally.
> >
> > I agree with all your points except that Russia isn't worth invading.
> I would say that is correct as far as the west is concerned. However,
> even as they seem to be on good terms with China, the Chinese still
> claim most of Siberia as theirs. The Chinese at some point may very
> well decide Russia is worth invading. Siberia does have a lot of
> natural resources that will become even more accessible with global
> climate change.
> >
> > Dean
> It is good to see you still reading and posting Dean.
> Did you notice in my Quora post, the opinions
> of another 'old time' poster from here & the naval group,
> Juergen Nieveler ?

I did! I wish more of the old guys were still here!

>The False Hope of Nuclear Forensics? Assessing the Timeliness of Forensics Intelligence

>it is unlikely that nuclear forensics will provide information as to the source of the device in the time frame required by policymakers, who in the wake of a terrorist attack will need to respond quickly and decisively.

>Further, black market material could [be] the ideal method of weaponization, as its characterization and origin-tracing would prove nearly impossible due to decoupling, and thus confusion, between perpetrator and originator.

>if the signatures of the material are not classified into a comprehensive database, though disperse efforts are underway, the difficulty in conclusively saying it is a particular actor increases.
https://fas.org/pir-pubs/the-false-hope-of-nuclear-forensics-assessing-the-timeliness-of-forensics-intelligence

With our ability to trace material/devices in mind, a state actor could deliberately, covertly design and build unique nuclear devices to evade such detection. And how many nukes does Iran have by now?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=t98PD6KCg2Q

Even if we could trace a nuclear device or material back to, say, Russia, that wouldn't necessarily impel us to immediately retaliate against them in kind. A corrupt official could sell a device to terrorists - that wouldn't necessarily reflect official state policy, and it's unlikely we would nuke Russia, provoking WW3, in response. Deniability buys precious time. Even when we have clear intelligence, in the event of a limited unclaimed attack, it is likely we will operate with the appearance of deniability, as Iran does re: Israel, and as we do re: Russia today with cyberattacks, Covid, etc.

>At a huge Soviet-era virology campus in Siberia called VECTOR, a sudden, unexpected explosion in September blew out the windows and set parts of a building ablaze
https://thebulletin.org/2019/11/what-happened-after-an-explosion-at-a-russian-disease-research-lab-called-vector

>Neither can we exclude theft of pathogens during the chaos and aftermath of the explosion, or that the explosion itself was deliberate to enable theft.
https://jglobalbiosecurity.com/articles/10.31646/gbio.41

>The Governments of Australia, Canada, Czechia, Denmark, Estonia, Israel, Japan, Latvia, Lithuania, Norway, the Republic of Korea, Slovenia, the United Kingdom, and the United States of America remain steadfast in our commitment to working with the World Health Organization (WHO), international experts who have a vital mission, and the global community to understand the origins of this pandemic...
https://www.state.gov/joint-statement-on-the-who-convened-covid-19-origins-study

only 14 nations, curious list there. Major global and regional powers, then...latvia, lithuania, estonia, and 2 more states in Eastern Europe.

It won't be the last bioweapon (one of the 4 horsemen) to be released. The deniability framework for a bird flu attack is in place.

>Vektor has one of the world's largest collections of viruses, including Ebola, according to Interfax. Reports say its collection includes samples of smallpox, bird flu and different strains of hepatitis.
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-49727101

>A mutating strain of bird flu that has emerged in Russia has “a fairly high degree of probability” of human-to-human transmission
https://nypost.com/2021/03/12/russia-warns-of-human-to-human-transmission-of-bird-flu-strain

>The H5N1, H5N3, H5N4, H5N5, H5N6 and H5N8 subtypes of HPAI are circulating in bird and poultry populations across the globe, sparking concern at OIE which called this an "unprecedented genetic variability of subtypes...creating an epidemiologically challenging landscape."

>The increase in human infections caused by the H5N6 subtype of avian influenza is causing concern among experts, who say that a previously circulating strain appears to have changed and could be more infectious to people
https://www.jpost.com/health-and-wellness/article-689457

>human H5N6 infections have a 67% mortality rate
https://www.livescience.com/H5N6-bird-flu-cases-china-2021

"Dean Markley" wrote in message
news:8fbd571a-d423-47c5-b7b0-16b759da5691n@googlegroups.com...

On Wednesday, April 6, 2022 at 12:51:06 PM UTC-4, Jim Wilkins wrote:
............
----------------
I agree with all your points except that Russia isn't worth invading. I
would say that is correct as far as the west is concerned. However, even as
they seem to be on good terms with China, the Chinese still claim most of
Siberia as theirs. The Chinese at some point may very well decide Russia is
worth invading. Siberia does have a lot of natural resources that will
become even more accessible with global climate change.

Dean

------------------------
https://tfipost.com/2020/07/this-is-our-land-china-now-claims-russias-vladivostok-as-part-of-its-territory/

On Thursday, April 7, 2022 at 5:29:59 PM UTC-4, Jim Wilkins wrote:
> "Dean Markley" wrote in message
> news:8fbd571a-d423-47c5...@googlegroups.com...
> On Wednesday, April 6, 2022 at 12:51:06 PM UTC-4, Jim Wilkins wrote:
> ...........
> ----------------
> I agree with all your points except that Russia isn't worth invading. I
> would say that is correct as far as the west is concerned. However, even as
> they seem to be on good terms with China, the Chinese still claim most of
> Siberia as theirs. The Chinese at some point may very well decide Russia is
> worth invading. Siberia does have a lot of natural resources that will
> become even more accessible with global climate change.
>
> Dean
> ------------------------
> https://tfipost.com/2020/07/this-is-our-land-china-now-claims-russias-vladivostok-as-part-of-its-territory/

Indeed. The Russians would be wise to watch their eastern borders.