On 12/09/2021 20:49, Leroy N. Soetoro wrote:
> https://www.livescience.com/high-tide-flooding-climate-change-2030
>
> Climate change has already increased the frequency and severity of
> hurricanes and other extreme weather events around the world. But there's
> a smaller, less splashy threat on the horizon that could wreak havoc on
> America's coasts.
>
> High-tide floods, also called "nuisance floods," occur in coastal areas
> when tides reach about 2 feet (0.6 meters) above the daily average high
> tide and begin to flood onto streets or seep through storm drains. True to
> their nickname, these floods are more of a nuisance than an outright
> calamity, inundating streets and homes, forcing businesses to close and
> causing cesspools to overflow — but the longer they last, the more damage
> they can do.
>
> The U.S. experienced more than 600 of these floods in 2019, according to
> the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA). But now, a new
> study led by NASA warns that nuisance floods will become a much more
> frequent occurrence in the U.S. as soon as the 2030s, with a majority of
> the U.S. coastline expected to see three to four times as many high-tide
> flood days each year for at least a decade.
>
> The study, published June 21 in the journal Nature Climate Change, warns
> that these extra flood days won't be spread out evenly over the year, but
> are likely to cluster together over the span of just a few months; coastal
> areas that now face just two or three floods a month may soon face a dozen
> or more.
>
> These prolonged coastal flood seasons will cause major disruptions to
> lives and livelihoods if communities don't start planning for them now,
> the researchers cautioned.
>
> "It's the accumulated effect over time that will have an impact," lead
> study author Phil Thompson, an assistant professor at the University of
> Hawaii, said in a statement. "If it floods 10 or 15 times a month, a
> business can't keep operating with its parking lot under water. People
> lose their jobs because they can't get to work. Seeping cesspools become a
> public health issue."
>
> Several factors drive this predicted increase in flood days.
>
> For one, there's sea level rise. As global warming heats up the
> atmosphere, glacial ice is melting at a record pace, dumping enormous
> amounts of meltwater into the ocean. As a result, global average sea
> levels have risen about 8 to 9 inches (21 to 24 centimeters) since 1880,
> with about a third of that occurring in just the last 25 years, according
> to NOAA. By the year 2100, sea levels could rise anywhere from 12 inches
> (0.3 m) to 8.2 feet (2.5 m) above where they were in 2000, depending on
> how well humans restrict greenhouse gas emissions in the coming decades.
>
> While rising sea levels alone will increase the frequency of high-tide
> floods, they will have a little help from the cosmos — specifically, the
> moon.
>
> The moon influences the tides, but the power of the moon's pull isn't
> equal from year to year; the moon actually has a "wobble" in its orbit,
> slightly altering its position relative to Earth on a rhythmic 18.6-year
> cycle. For half of the cycle, the moon suppresses tides on Earth,
> resulting in lower high tides and higher low tides. For the other half of
> the cycle, tides are amplified, with higher high tides and lower low
> tides, according to NASA.
>
> We are currently in the tide-amplifying part of the cycle; the next tide-
> amplifying cycle begins in the mid-2030s; — and, by then, global sea
> levels will have risen enough to make those higher-than-normal high tides
> particularly troublesome, the researchers found.
>
> Through the combined effect of sea-level rise and the lunar cycle, high-
> tide flooding will increase rapidly across the entire U.S. coast, the team
> wrote. In a little more than a decade, high-tide flooding will transition
> "from a regional issue to a national issue with a majority of U.S.
> coastlines being affected," the authors wrote. Other elements of the
> climate cycle, like El Niño events, will cause these flood days to cluster
> in certain parts of the year, resulting in entire months of unrelenting
> coastal flooding.
>
> Scary as this pattern sounds, it is also important to understand for
> planning purposes, the authors wrote.
>
> "Understanding that all your events are clustered in a particular month,
> or you might have more severe flooding in the second half of a year than
> the first — that's useful information," study co-author Ben Hamlington of
> NASA's Jet Propulsion Laboratory said in the statement.
>
> Extreme weather events may get all the national media attention as they
> batter America's coasts, but high-tide flooding will soon be impossible to
> ignore. Best to start planning for it now, before it's too late, the
> authors concluded.
>
>

No wobble, just the return of the 18.6 year cycle of the astronomic
forcings of the tidal harmonics/ tides, pretty marginal really , even in
the Bay of Fundy.
The other long term cycles are 8.85 years and something like the
Milankovitch cycling , I forget the return figure something like 20,000
to 30,000 years

--
Global sea level rise to 2100 from curve-fitted existing altimetry data
<http://diverse.4mg.com/slr.htm>

In alt.global-warming N_Cook <diverse@tcp.co.uk> wrote:
> On 12/09/2021 20:49, Leroy N. Soetoro wrote:
>> https://www.livescience.com/high-tide-flooding-climate-change-2030
....
>> "It's the accumulated effect over time that will have an impact," lead
>> study author Phil Thompson, an assistant professor at the University of
>> Hawaii, said in a statement. "If it floods 10 or 15 times a month, a
>> business can't keep operating with its parking lot under water. People
>> lose their jobs because they can't get to work. Seeping cesspools become a
>> public health issue."
....
> No wobble, just the return of the 18.6 year cycle of the astronomic
> forcings of the tidal harmonics/ tides, pretty marginal really , even in
> the Bay of Fundy.
> The other long term cycles are 8.85 years and something like the
> Milankovitch cycling , I forget the return figure something like 20,000
> to 30,000 years

I think we had a look at this a while back when we broke down the
"causal factors" (as determined by a s/w :) for US flooding.
The moon did play a part but just a small one.

For Florida flooding the frequency of events is 50% explained by
N Temp zone temperature and less than 10% explained by the
change in distance between the moon and earth.

For the US overall, flooding frequency is 60% explained by S Hem temps
and less than 6% by the distance betwen moon and earth.

The distance between moon and earth is the most significant lunar factor
with others decling rapidly (e.g. Declination above the celestial
equator explains 3% of US floods; Right Ascention explains around 2%
of US floods).

--
Death Valley, California, breaks the all-time world heat record for the
second year in a row
....
In 2013, WMO? officially decertified? the official all-time hottest
temperature in world history, a 136.4 degrees Fahrenheit (58.0??C) reading
from Al Azizia, Libya, in 1923. (Burt was a member of the WMO team that made
the determination.) With the Libya record abandoned, the? [68]official world
record? was given to a 134 degrees Fahrenheit (56.7??C) measurement taken at
Death Valley on July 10, 1913.
-- Yale Climate Connections, July 2021

On 13/09/2021 15:18, R Kym Horsell wrote:
> In alt.global-warming N_Cook <diverse@tcp.co.uk> wrote:
>> On 12/09/2021 20:49, Leroy N. Soetoro wrote:
>>> https://www.livescience.com/high-tide-flooding-climate-change-2030
> ...
>>> "It's the accumulated effect over time that will have an impact," lead
>>> study author Phil Thompson, an assistant professor at the University of
>>> Hawaii, said in a statement. "If it floods 10 or 15 times a month, a
>>> business can't keep operating with its parking lot under water. People
>>> lose their jobs because they can't get to work. Seeping cesspools become a
>>> public health issue."
> ...
>> No wobble, just the return of the 18.6 year cycle of the astronomic
>> forcings of the tidal harmonics/ tides, pretty marginal really , even in
>> the Bay of Fundy.
>> The other long term cycles are 8.85 years and something like the
>> Milankovitch cycling , I forget the return figure something like 20,000
>> to 30,000 years
>
> I think we had a look at this a while back when we broke down the
> "causal factors" (as determined by a s/w :) for US flooding.
> The moon did play a part but just a small one.
>
> For Florida flooding the frequency of events is 50% explained by
> N Temp zone temperature and less than 10% explained by the
> change in distance between the moon and earth.
>
> For the US overall, flooding frequency is 60% explained by S Hem temps
> and less than 6% by the distance betwen moon and earth.
>
> The distance between moon and earth is the most significant lunar factor
> with others decling rapidly (e.g. Declination above the celestial
> equator explains 3% of US floods; Right Ascention explains around 2%
> of US floods).
>

The principal reason for increased coastal flooding in the USA
especially Florida, is excessive pumping of groundwater out of the
aquifers for agriculture, humans to drink , green golf-courses etc.
As each decade goes by the modern day diviners have to drill deeper and
deeper as "fossil" water takes hundreds or thousands of years to
replenish . The ground is not solid surpisingly, take its water out and
it sinks

--
Global sea level rise to 2100 from curve-fitted existing altimetry data
<http://diverse.4mg.com/slr.htm>

In alt.global-warming N_Cook <diverse@tcp.co.uk> wrote:
> On 13/09/2021 15:18, R Kym Horsell wrote:
>> In alt.global-warming N_Cook <diverse@tcp.co.uk> wrote:
>>> On 12/09/2021 20:49, Leroy N. Soetoro wrote:
>>>> https://www.livescience.com/high-tide-flooding-climate-change-2030
>> ...
>>>> "It's the accumulated effect over time that will have an impact," lead
>>>> study author Phil Thompson, an assistant professor at the University of
>>>> Hawaii, said in a statement. "If it floods 10 or 15 times a month, a
>>>> business can't keep operating with its parking lot under water. People
>>>> lose their jobs because they can't get to work. Seeping cesspools become a
>>>> public health issue."
>> ...
>>> No wobble, just the return of the 18.6 year cycle of the astronomic
>>> forcings of the tidal harmonics/ tides, pretty marginal really , even in
>>> the Bay of Fundy.
>>> The other long term cycles are 8.85 years and something like the
>>> Milankovitch cycling , I forget the return figure something like 20,000
>>> to 30,000 years
>>
>> I think we had a look at this a while back when we broke down the
>> "causal factors" (as determined by a s/w :) for US flooding.
>> The moon did play a part but just a small one.
>>
>> For Florida flooding the frequency of events is 50% explained by
>> N Temp zone temperature and less than 10% explained by the
>> change in distance between the moon and earth.
>>
>> For the US overall, flooding frequency is 60% explained by S Hem temps
>> and less than 6% by the distance betwen moon and earth.
>>
>> The distance between moon and earth is the most significant lunar factor
>> with others decling rapidly (e.g. Declination above the celestial
>> equator explains 3% of US floods; Right Ascention explains around 2%
>> of US floods).
>>
>
> The principal reason for increased coastal flooding in the USA
> especially Florida, is excessive pumping of groundwater out of the
> aquifers for agriculture, humans to drink , green golf-courses etc.
> As each decade goes by the modern day diviners have to drill deeper and
> deeper as "fossil" water takes hundreds or thousands of years to
> replenish . The ground is not solid surpisingly, take its water out and
> it sinks

You should never say things like that to people that have instant access
to 19,500 time series of stuff happening in the US. :)

The R2 on the volume of aquifer extraction in Florida and flooding events in
Florida is approx 6% which is nowhere near the largest factor I can find
(as above N Temp zone avg temps).

The global sea level rise (I'm using PSMSL data here) is of reasonable
importance with an R2 of 41% linking the PSMSL series with Florida flooding events.

On Mon, 13 Sep 2021 14:18:08 -0000 (UTC), R Kym Horsell <kym@kymhorsell.com> wrote:
>The distance between moon and earth

x-Moon's mean geocentric distance 238,856 miles(n.t.s.)-x
| 230,000 |
| 220,000 |
| 210,000 |
| 200,000 |
| 190,000 |
| 180,000 |
| 170,000 |
| 160,000 |
| 150,000 |
| 140,000 |
| 130,000 |
| 120,000 |
| 110,000 |
| 100,000 |
| 90,000 |
| 80,000 |
| 70,000 |
| 60,000 |
| 50,000 |
| 40,000 |
| 30,000 |
x------Geostationary orbit ~22,300 miles altitude-------x
x------Mid-altitude orbit ~12,500 miles altitude--------x
x------Low-altitude orbit below ~1200 miles altitude----x
x------JPL/NASA Space Shuttle orbit ~300 miles altitude-x
x------Intl. Space Station orbit ~220 miles altitude----x
x------Earth's mean sea level -0- miles altitude--------x

Arthur Charles Clarke was born to Charles Wright & Mary Nora
Willis-Clarke on Sunday 16 December 1917 at 13 Blenheim Road
(3W28:36,51N12:23) Minehead TA24 5PZ, Somersetshire, England.
(N. McAleer's biography "on the morning of December 16 1917")

Stanley Kubrick was born to Jacob Leonard & Sadie Gertrude Perveler-
Kubrick at Society for the Lying-In Hospital 305 2nd Ave. (73W59:01,
40N44:05) Manhattan New York, NY, on Thursday July 26, 1928 (AA/BR).
____________________________________________________________________

If you keep repeating the mantra "We went to the Moon" for a long
enough time, it makes it become true. Like magic, it's bewitching.

On 9/13/2021 11:02 AM, R Kym Horsell wrote:
> In alt.global-warming N_Cook <diverse@tcp.co.uk> wrote:
>> On 13/09/2021 15:18, R Kym Horsell wrote:
>>> In alt.global-warming N_Cook <diverse@tcp.co.uk> wrote:
>>>> On 12/09/2021 20:49, Leroy N. Soetoro wrote:
>>>>> https://www.livescience.com/high-tide-flooding-climate-change-2030
>>> ...
>>>>> "It's the accumulated effect over time that will have an impact," lead
>>>>> study author Phil Thompson, an assistant professor at the University of
>>>>> Hawaii, said in a statement. "If it floods 10 or 15 times a month, a
>>>>> business can't keep operating with its parking lot under water. People
>>>>> lose their jobs because they can't get to work. Seeping cesspools become a
>>>>> public health issue."
>>> ...
>>>> No wobble, just the return of the 18.6 year cycle of the astronomic
>>>> forcings of the tidal harmonics/ tides, pretty marginal really , even in
>>>> the Bay of Fundy.
>>>> The other long term cycles are 8.85 years and something like the
>>>> Milankovitch cycling , I forget the return figure something like 20,000
>>>> to 30,000 years
>>>
>>> I think we had a look at this a while back when we broke down the
>>> "causal factors" (as determined by a s/w :) for US flooding.
>>> The moon did play a part but just a small one.
>>>
>>> For Florida flooding the frequency of events is 50% explained by
>>> N Temp zone temperature and less than 10% explained by the
>>> change in distance between the moon and earth.
>>>
>>> For the US overall, flooding frequency is 60% explained by S Hem temps
>>> and less than 6% by the distance betwen moon and earth.
>>>
>>> The distance between moon and earth is the most significant lunar factor
>>> with others decling rapidly (e.g. Declination above the celestial
>>> equator explains 3% of US floods; Right Ascention explains around 2%
>>> of US floods).
>>>
>>
>> The principal reason for increased coastal flooding in the USA
>> especially Florida, is excessive pumping of groundwater out of the
>> aquifers for agriculture, humans to drink , green golf-courses etc.
>> As each decade goes by the modern day diviners have to drill deeper and
>> deeper as "fossil" water takes hundreds or thousands of years to
>> replenish . The ground is not solid surpisingly, take its water out and
>> it sinks
>
> You should never say things like that to people that have instant access
> to 19,500 time series of stuff happening in the US. :)
>
> The R2 on the volume of aquifer extraction in Florida and flooding events in
> Florida is approx 6% which is nowhere near the largest factor I can find
> (as above N Temp zone avg temps).
>
> The global sea level rise (I'm using PSMSL data here) is of reasonable
> importance with an R2 of 41% linking the PSMSL series with Florida flooding events.

Much of Florida sits on porous limestone, and it doesn't sink except
for the occasional cavern collapse resulting in a sinkhole. Also the water
table is usually close to the surface, and most water pumped out of the ground
is soon replaced by far less drinkable water from elsewhere.

In alt.global-warming Unum <noneof@yourbusiness.com> wrote:
> On 9/13/2021 11:02 AM, R Kym Horsell wrote:
>> In alt.global-warming N_Cook <diverse@tcp.co.uk> wrote:
>>> On 13/09/2021 15:18, R Kym Horsell wrote:
>>>> In alt.global-warming N_Cook <diverse@tcp.co.uk> wrote:
>>>>> On 12/09/2021 20:49, Leroy N. Soetoro wrote:
>>>>>> https://www.livescience.com/high-tide-flooding-climate-change-2030
>>>> ...
>>>>>> "It's the accumulated effect over time that will have an impact," lead
>>>>>> study author Phil Thompson, an assistant professor at the University of
>>>>>> Hawaii, said in a statement. "If it floods 10 or 15 times a month, a
>>>>>> business can't keep operating with its parking lot under water. People
>>>>>> lose their jobs because they can't get to work. Seeping cesspools become a
>>>>>> public health issue."
>>>> ...
>>>>> No wobble, just the return of the 18.6 year cycle of the astronomic
>>>>> forcings of the tidal harmonics/ tides, pretty marginal really , even in
>>>>> the Bay of Fundy.
>>>>> The other long term cycles are 8.85 years and something like the
>>>>> Milankovitch cycling , I forget the return figure something like 20,000
>>>>> to 30,000 years
>>>>
>>>> I think we had a look at this a while back when we broke down the
>>>> "causal factors" (as determined by a s/w :) for US flooding.
>>>> The moon did play a part but just a small one.
>>>>
>>>> For Florida flooding the frequency of events is 50% explained by
>>>> N Temp zone temperature and less than 10% explained by the
>>>> change in distance between the moon and earth.
>>>>
>>>> For the US overall, flooding frequency is 60% explained by S Hem temps
>>>> and less than 6% by the distance betwen moon and earth.
>>>>
>>>> The distance between moon and earth is the most significant lunar factor
>>>> with others decling rapidly (e.g. Declination above the celestial
>>>> equator explains 3% of US floods; Right Ascention explains around 2%
>>>> of US floods).
>>>>
>>>
>>> The principal reason for increased coastal flooding in the USA
>>> especially Florida, is excessive pumping of groundwater out of the
>>> aquifers for agriculture, humans to drink , green golf-courses etc.
>>> As each decade goes by the modern day diviners have to drill deeper and
>>> deeper as "fossil" water takes hundreds or thousands of years to
>>> replenish . The ground is not solid surpisingly, take its water out and
>>> it sinks
>>
>> You should never say things like that to people that have instant access
>> to 19,500 time series of stuff happening in the US. :)
>>
>> The R2 on the volume of aquifer extraction in Florida and flooding events in
>> Florida is approx 6% which is nowhere near the largest factor I can find
>> (as above N Temp zone avg temps).
>>
>> The global sea level rise (I'm using PSMSL data here) is of reasonable
>> importance with an R2 of 41% linking the PSMSL series with Florida flooding events.
>
> Much of Florida sits on porous limestone, and it doesn't sink except
> for the occasional cavern collapse resulting in a sinkhole. Also the water
> table is usually close to the surface, and most water pumped out of the ground
> is soon replaced by far less drinkable water from elsewhere.

Yea. That's another steady march you can see in the data.

ABout 5y back I did a job for Duval (?) county on their water table.
Like must places in Fla they are seeing an increasing problem
with salinity.

The avg waterwell in the county appears to be doubling in salinity
every 8y from 1990.

The avg well is well below 1% compared with seawater, but the
worst wells certainly are a chunk of change the 35 parts per 1000
of seawater.

A good part of the problem as usual was over-extraction of
groundwater. It was at the point in ~2015 when one year you could see
avg well salinity go down 10% over a year because of good rain or
maybe a hurricane passed by that year, and then the next year
bottled water production would go up and salinity would go up 15%.
Extraction had driven the system to the edge of sustainability
but it was gradually losing ground and I presume nothing has impoved since.