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tech / alt.astronomy / Saturn and ocean plankton

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* Saturn and ocean planktonMrPostingRobot
`- Re: Saturn and ocean planktonR Kym Horsell

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Saturn and ocean plankton

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From: MrPostin...@kymhorsell.com
Newsgroups: alt.astronomy
Subject: Saturn and ocean plankton
Date: Sat, 26 Feb 2022 09:33:21 +1100
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 by: MrPostin...@kymhorsell.com - Fri, 25 Feb 2022 22:33 UTC

I've posted things before showing the position of the planets, usually
Saturn, has a connection ("somehow") with cycles in earth atm gases.

In the lead-up to putting something more detailed on a website
somewhere I thought I'd share some preliminary things with people that
ostensibly may be interested.

We have data on the composition of atm gases going back almost a
mn years now thanks to air bubbles trapped in (mostly) Antarctic ice.

One interesting pattern is a 30y oscillation in N2O -- a gas
associated (among other things) with the growth and death of ocean
plankton.

"For some reason" there is a long-standing pattern that seems to
correspond with the orbital period of Saturn. Like the orbit of
Jupiter that has recently been linked with the oceanic ENSO (La
Nina/El Nino) cycle, it seems the orbit of Saturn is associated with
some cycle in plankton growth.

While I don't have or plan to create a data series that tracks the
position of Saturn over the last mn years I do have a fairly good
data-set for the past 100y. This also corresponds with data on atm N2O
to high precision -- measured daily or monthly rather than every now
and then from whatever gas bubbles are extract from some ice core
somewhere.

It turns out the ecliptic longitude of Saturn is indeed linked with
cycles in atm N2O as measured at different locations around the Earth.
The models that "best explain" the total data-set are as follows:

Lag Station Trans R2
(y)
13 brw 0.22294363
13 nwr x 0.20643046
13 Global x 0.18150672
13 smo y 0.17599325
13 mhd 0.16401025
13 NH 0.11851227
13 sum 0.09600689
13 spo 0.08695158
13 kum y 0.07078827
13 SH xy 0.05758684

The table shows how well the lonecl of Saturn lagged by 13y (approx
180deg of orbit) with a possible x or y log transformation matches up
against avg monthly N2O at each of the stations listed.

The stations shown have a statistically significant match at better
than 90% confidence in 2 different tests -- a T-test on the \beta and
a rank test comparing the ordering of data by x and by y. Together
the prob the data could match as well as seen is between 1 in 1000
("3 9s") and 1 and 10000 ("4 9s").

The R2 shows for each station how much of the observed data is
explained by the position of Saturn. The best match, above, is
22%. Meaning almost 1/4 of the relevant data is explained just by
where Saturn is in its orbit.

As an example of what the data looks like, the following is the "best"
model -- the lonecl of Saturn (in deg from perihelion) against the atm
N2O in ppb adjusted to remove the influence of human farming:

(AUTO CORR CORRECTION; estimated rho = 0.779824)
y = -0.00441783*x + 301.156
beta in -0.00441783 +- 0.00184338 90% CI
alpha in 301.156 +- 0.120596
T-test: P(beta<0.000000) = 0.999909
Rank test: Calculated Spearman corr = -0.469562
Critical Spearman = 0.432000 2-sided at 1%; reject H0:not_connected
r2 = 0.22294363
Durbin-Watson d = 0.428064
d < dL (1.560526): Positive auto-corr at 5%

year avg lonecl avg N2O ppb Model-est N2O
1963 182.942 300.121 300.348
1964 195.072 300.926 300.295*(est 1sd under obs)
1965 206.956 300.757 300.242*
1966 218.568 300.304 300.191
1967 229.962 300.956 300.141*
1968 241.18 299.925 300.091
1969 252.292 301.045 300.042**(2sd under)
1970 263.295 300.373 299.993
1971 274.252 300.45 299.945*
1972 285.215 300.09 299.896
1973 296.258 300.535 299.848*
1974 307.379 300.184 299.799
1975 318.643 300.222 299.749*
1976 330.097 300.159 299.698*
1979 9.86195 302.42 301.113**
1980 18.5206 301.315 301.075
1981 31.3752 301.548 301.018*
1982 44.4772 301.484 300.96*
1983 57.8101 300.999 300.901
1984 71.3245 300.714 300.841
1985 84.9859 300.712 300.781
1986 98.6583 301.315 300.721*
1987 112.288 301.252 300.66*
1988 125.804 301.21 300.601*
1989 139.175 301.491 300.542**
1990 152.288 301.494 300.484**
1991 165.13 301.656 300.427**
1992 177.686 301.163 300.372*
1993 189.98 300.982 300.317*
1994 201.967 300.882 300.264*
1995 213.689 299.589 300.212*
1996 225.181 299.352 300.162*
1997 236.505 299.242 300.112*
1998 247.653 299.348 300.062*
1999 258.689 299.298 300.014*
2000 269.662 299.844 299.965
2001 280.644 299.578 299.917
2002 291.636 299.424 299.868*
2003 302.702 299.398 299.819
2004 313.893 299.184 299.77*
2005 325.281 299.264 299.719*
2006 336.858 299.338 299.668
2007 348.678 299.374 299.616
2008 158.773 299.541 300.455**
2009 13.1922 299.484 301.098**
2010 25.8829 299.453 301.042**
2011 38.8539 299.634 300.985**
2012 52.0797 299.571 300.926**
2013 65.5461 299.749 300.867**
2014 79.132 300.208 300.807*
2015 92.7882 300.389 300.747
2016 106.442 300.438 300.686
2017 120.051 300.601 300.626
2018 133.482 300.598 300.567
2019 146.703 299.911 300.508*
2020 159.674 300.546 300.451
2021 172.396 300.369 300.395
2020 159.674 300.546 300.451

So it seems "for some reason" atm N2O wiggles a bit in correspondence
with the position of Saturn.

The relevance of this is -- N2O is produced by oceanic plankton.
While N2O these days is increasing above its historic 300 ppb value
due to industrial agriculture and probably other reasons, it has a
seasonal cycle related to the growth and die-back of plant-type
plankton, the major base of the oceanic food chain.

It has also been found that the sightings of certain objects over the
Americas also highly correlates with atm N2O. It seems some types of
objects "disappear" when N2O is high, and some are more numerous when
N2O is high.

The possible link is obvious -- someone may be eating something
growing in "our" (possibly having to be re-written at some point as
"their"; contact your legal department for details) oceans.

I've recently collected the data from about 200 ocean robots that
swarm around the Southern Ocean. They've been measuring things some
there for the past 10-20y. One of the things they can measure is
chlorophyll concentration in the water. I.e. the presence of
phytoplankton.

And I can announce for the first time here that, yes, there is a
statistically strong correlation between the coming and going of
certain reported objects across N America and the daily average levels
of chlorophyll on the Southern Ocean.

A summary table looks like:

Object type Lag R2
(d)
dusk -70 0.02593874
dawn -70 0.02461682
HI -80 0.02277169
daylight -30 0.01619446
boomerang -80 0.00734693
silver 10 0.00646424
AK 10 0.00644920
pink -80 0.00592110
purple 40 0.00563332
dark -70 0.00486125
DE -50 0.00312025

This table is created from time-series correlation of daily oceanic
plankton levels with daily sightings, possibly lagged by a number of
days. -ve lags mean the relevant objects are reacting BEFORE the
plankton changes were measured. I.e. indicating foreknowledge or
habituation (they've apparently had 1 mn years+ of experience). Out of
approx 100 ways to classify sightings -- by shape, by color, by
location, by broad time-of-day -- only these ~10 show up as >=90%
significant according to the 2 usual stats tests.

The R2 are all small -- i.e. 2.5% or less -- which is to be expected
given the data is daily, sightings are relatively rare, and there is
large day to day variation possibly because many objects seem to hit
birds or buzz aircraft and that interrupts their fishing schedule.


Click here to read the complete article
Re: Saturn and ocean plankton

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https://www.novabbs.com/tech/article-flat.php?id=3911&group=alt.astronomy#3911

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From: kym...@kymhorsell.com (R Kym Horsell)
Newsgroups: alt.astronomy
Subject: Re: Saturn and ocean plankton
Date: Sat, 26 Feb 2022 00:05:26 -0000 (UTC)
Organization: kymhorsell.com
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 by: R Kym Horsell - Sat, 26 Feb 2022 00:05 UTC

MrPostingRobot@kymhorsell.com wrote:
[...]

If you're not a stats head and judge things by eye then
I've put up a plot of daily UFO sightings (mostly across the US
but incl Canada and other countries -- the NUFORC database)
versus the robot's idea of concenration of chlorophyll in the
Southern Ocean here:

<kymhorsell.com/UFO/sochla-ufos.gif>

You can see the red parts of the plot and the green parts "interleave".
IOW UFO's seem to decline seasonally when phytoplankton in the S Ocean
reach their peak.

The clearer-eyed might also notice a variation in peaks of both things
over time. This is the 40y cycle related to the position of Saturn.

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