The forecast on planet Neptune is chilly - and getting colder
Yahoo! Voices, 11 Apr 2022 14:17Z

Unexpected Atmospheric Temperature Changes Detected on Neptune
SciTechDaily, 11 Apr 2022 08:11Z

According to tricky ground-based IR obs of Neptune over the past 14
y its stratosphere has been cooling over the period while its surface
tempreature shows no definite trend.

I've tried to get some idea of the actual dataset of the observations
to throw to one of my AI programs but so far no dice in getting anything.
A google search for related plots gives nothing.

But a made-up set of numbers with a slight declining trend finds
the best match against 2.8 GHz solar flux as recorded in Ottawa from 1947.

y = -8.63558e-05*x + -120.016
beta in -8.63558e-05 +- 3.10891e-05 90% CI
alpha in -120.016 +- 0.0312979
T-test: P(beta<0.000000) = 0.999415
Rank test: calculated Spearman corr = -0.783333
Critical Spearman = 0.783000 2-sided at 1%; reject H0:not_connected
r2 = 0.79823848

Year 2.8GHz flux Nep strat Model
2006 799.917 -120.06 -120.085*(1sd above "obs")
2007 730.833 -120.07 -120.079
2008 689.667 -120.08 -120.076
2009 705.417 -120.09 -120.077
2010 799.75 -120.1 -120.085*(1sd below)
2011 1131.58 -120.11 -120.114
2012 1199 -120.12 -120.12
2013 1224.5 -120.13 -120.122
2014 1455 -120.14 -120.142

Given the numbers are made up the result doesnt mean very much.
The real explanation may be more interesting, possibly involving
albedo changes at lower levels of the Neptune atm.

--
"Nothing in life is to be feared, it is only to be understood.
Now is the time to understand more, so that we may fear less."
- Marie Curie

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MrPostingRobot@kymhorsell.com wrote on 13/4/22 6:13 am:
> The forecast on planet Neptune is chilly - and getting colder
> Yahoo! Voices, 11 Apr 2022 14:17Z
>
> Unexpected Atmospheric Temperature Changes Detected on Neptune
> SciTechDaily, 11 Apr 2022 08:11Z
>
> According to tricky ground-based IR obs of Neptune over the past 14
> y its stratosphere has been cooling over the period while its surface
> tempreature shows no definite trend.

<Snip>

In an interview on ABC24 today, the Astronomer made the point that, as
this research has been carried out over just 14 years whilst Neptune has
an Orbital Time of about 140 years, so, effectively this research has
been carried out over 1/10th of an orbit ...... a bit like, maybe,
mid-Autumn to the start of Winter on Earth.

So he seemed to be suggesting that the research needed to be carried out
for much longer before drawing any firm conclusions!!

Maybe he was just ensuring his job for a while!! ;-P
--
Daniel

On 4/14/2022 4:16 AM, Daniel65 wrote:
> MrPostingRobot@kymhorsell.com wrote on 13/4/22 6:13 am:
>>    The forecast on planet Neptune is chilly - and getting colder
>>    Yahoo! Voices, 11 Apr 2022 14:17Z
>>
>>      Unexpected Atmospheric Temperature Changes Detected on Neptune
>>      SciTechDaily, 11 Apr 2022 08:11Z
>>
>> According to tricky ground-based IR obs of Neptune over the past 14
>> y its stratosphere has been cooling over the period while its surface
>> tempreature shows no definite trend.
>
> <Snip>
>
> In an interview on ABC24 today, the Astronomer made the point that, as
> this research has been carried out over just 14 years whilst Neptune has
> an Orbital Time of about 140 years, so, effectively this research has
> been carried out over 1/10th of an orbit ...... a bit like, maybe,
> mid-Autumn to the start of Winter on Earth.
>
> So he seemed to be suggesting that the research needed to be carried out
> for much longer before drawing any firm conclusions!!
>
> Maybe he was just ensuring his job for a while!! ;-P

Daniel is suggesting a high minded and idealistic
scientist, might be considering enhancing his
job security?

Uhh Haa.

a425couple wrote on 15/4/22 12:49 am:
> On 4/14/2022 4:16 AM, Daniel65 wrote:
>> MrPostingRobot@kymhorsell.com wrote on 13/4/22 6:13 am:
>>>    The forecast on planet Neptune is chilly - and getting colder
>>>    Yahoo! Voices, 11 Apr 2022 14:17Z
>>>
>>>      Unexpected Atmospheric Temperature Changes Detected on Neptune
>>>      SciTechDaily, 11 Apr 2022 08:11Z
>>>
>>> According to tricky ground-based IR obs of Neptune over the past 14
>>> y its stratosphere has been cooling over the period while its surface
>>> tempreature shows no definite trend.
>>
>> <Snip>
>>
>> In an interview on ABC24 today, the Astronomer made the point that, as
>> this research has been carried out over just 14 years whilst Neptune
>> has an Orbital Time of about 140 years, so, effectively this research
>> has been carried out over 1/10th of an orbit ...... a bit like, maybe,
>> mid-Autumn to the start of Winter on Earth.
>>
>> So he seemed to be suggesting that the research needed to be carried
>> out for much longer before drawing any firm conclusions!!
>>
>> Maybe he was just ensuring his job for a while!! ;-P
>
> Daniel is suggesting a high minded and idealistic
> scientist, might be considering enhancing his
> job security?
>
> Uhh Haa.

Gee Whiz, did my comment really need explaining??
--
Daniel