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Opinion: Will the Kremlin’s war soon expand to a second front in Georgia?
David Kirichenko
Thu, November 16, 2023 at 9:47 AM PST·5 min read
209

Ukraine has been wreaking havoc on Russia’s navy in the Black Sea
through the use of new homemade sea drones and foreign-supplied cruise
missiles. As a result of these suffocating attacks, Russia has been
forced to have the bulk of its navy retreat from Sevastopol — a port
that was first claimed by Russia in 1783 under Catherine the Great.
However, with Russia in retreat, it could result in the war opening up a
second front on Georgia’s occupied coast.

Before Russia’s full-scale invasion, Russia deployed six amphibious
assault ships to the Black Sea, heightening the threat to Ukraine's
southern shores. This move allowed Russia to potentially menace Ukraine
from three directions—land, sea, and air—forcing Ukraine to spread its
defenses thinly.

Approximately a fifth of all Russian missile strikes on Ukraine between
January and March 2023 came from the sea, placing significant stress on
Ukraine's air defenses. Ukraine began destroying Russian warships
wherever it could, and pushing the rest out to a distance that makes
striking ports, cities and a new sea corridor as difficult as possible.

Sevastopol, in occupied-Crimea, used to be a safe place for Russia's
naval fleet. However, with Ukrainian forces becoming more assertive,
it's quickly becoming a graveyard for the Russian navy. The loss of the
cruiser Moskva to Neptune missiles in April 2022 was a watershed moment
for the Russian navy and helped mark the start of Russia’s rapid naval
breakdown.

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As a result of constant Ukrainian strikes, Russia is moving its ships,
submarines, and landing vessels to the port of Novorossiysk. President
Volodymyr Zelensky, speaking at the Crimea Platform in October 2023,
remarked that “The Russian (Black Sea) fleet is no longer able to
operate in the western part of the Black Sea and is gradually fleeing
from Crimea.”

However, Novorossiysk is only about 100 kilometers away from Crimea. In
August 2023, Ukraine successfully launched a naval drone strike on
Russia's Black Sea naval base in Novorossiysk. Even as the fleet pushes
further out, Russian warships can fire missiles with a range of 2500
kilometers.

One day after the retreat, Russia announced that it is building a
permanent naval base on the Black Sea coast in the occupied region of
Abkhazia, which is internationally recognized as Georgian territory. Now
that Russia is planning to transfer warships to Abkhazia, it could allow
for the region to be more easily annexed. It’s a slap in the face for
Georgia’s pro-Russian government.

Georgian Prime Minister Irakli Garibashvili stated “Russia is already
planning to build the third military base, in this case, a naval base on
our territory, of course, without our permission. This is the result of
occupation.”

Badri Japaridze from the Lelo Party went even further suggesting that
Russia aims to extend its military reach to Georgia by establishing a
front line in Abkhazia, within Georgia's internationally recognized
borders. The new base would shelter Russia's naval fleet, currently
being targeted in Sevastopol and Novorossiysk, which launches cruise
missiles at Ukraine's civilian population.

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Abkhazia and South Ossetia, two regions in Georgia, have been under
Russian occupation since a brief 2008 war, where Russia seized nearly
20% of Georgian territory. Russia views these regions as independent
states, contrary to Georgia's stance of unlawful occupation and the
international community's condemnation. In both areas, Russia has
established substantial military bases.

Russia is now setting up a new naval base in Abkhazia's Ochamchire
district, alarmingly close to Georgian-controlled territory and about
700 kilometers from Sevastopol. Following Russia's 2008 invasion of
Georgia, Russia relocated part of its Black Sea fleet here, using it to
blockade Georgian ports.

Though initially too shallow for larger vessels, recent dredging has
made Ochamchire harbor suitable for smaller ships, including missile
corvettes used against Ukraine. This could allow Russia to permanently
station missile cruisers at the port.

Russian control over Ochamchire port began in 2009, following so-called
cooperation agreements on border protection with Abkhazia and South
Ossetia. This move strengthens Russia's capacity to disrupt Black Sea
commerce, threatening projects like Georgia's Anaklia deep sea port.
Georgia, the only South Caucasus country with Black Sea access, lacks a
deep-sea port, limiting its transit capabilities. The new base not only
elevates the strategic value of Georgia's occupied coastline but also
endangers its ambitions to leverage its geostrategic position.

The Anaklia project, reactivated by Georgia after a 2020 suspension,
aims to position Georgia as a crucial Europe-Asia trade link, especially
given the context of Russia's Ukraine invasion and consequent Western
sanctions.

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David Kezerashvili, Georgia's Defense Minister during the 2008 invasion,
fears Russia might aim to capture more Georgian ports, potentially
drawing Georgia into the Ukraine conflict. Kyiv's capability to strike
distant targets could lead to preemptive actions against Russian forces
in Georgia. The Ukrainian government has already demonstrated that it
has a long arm as Ukraine struck targets over 600 kilometers from its
borders and Moscow itself.

Despite Ukraine's successes against Russian naval power, Russia's Black
Sea Fleet remains a threat, capable of launching cruise missiles at
Ukrainian civilian infrastructure. The Abkhazian base represents
Georgia's most significant security challenge since 2008, signaling
Russia's longterm commitment to the war. If Russia continues to fail to
secure its fleet, it could retreat even further to the Caspian Sea
through internal waters with the Volga-Don Canal.

However, Ukrainian submarines may be able to strike Russia’s new naval
base with drone submarines. Released in August 2023, the Marichka is a
prototype unmanned undersea vehicle (UUV) designed to target Russian
warships' vulnerabilities as it has the ability to operate stealthily
below the waterline presenting a significant advantage, as the Black Sea
Fleet is currently ill-equipped to detect and intercept small UUVs. It
can cover a distance of up to 600 miles.

The Kremlin's intent to establish a second front on Georgian soil is
because Ukraine has a legitimate right to attack Russian military
targets in Abkhazia to defend itself. If Russia does begin launching
strikes against Ukraine from Georgian territory, Ukraine might very well
be forced to strike Russian naval forces there, opening up a new front
in the Russo-Ukrainian war.

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