John B. <slocombjb@gmail.com> writes:

> On Wed, 18 May 2022 13:46:14 -0400, Radey Shouman
> <shouman@comcast.net> wrote:
>
>>John B. <slocombjb@gmail.com> writes:
>>
>>> On Tue, 17 May 2022 17:28:02 -0700 (PDT), "russellseaton1@yahoo.com"
>>> <ritzannaseaton@gmail.com> wrote:
>>>
>>>>On Tuesday, May 17, 2022 at 5:57:13 PM UTC-5, John B. wrote:
>>>>> On Tue, 17 May 2022 09:15:10 -0500, AMuzi <a...@yellowjersey.org> wrote:
>>>>>
>>>>> >On 5/17/2022 5:03 AM, funkma...@hotmail.com wrote:
>>>>> >> On Monday, May 16, 2022 at 10:16:20 AM UTC-4, AMuzi wrote:
>>>>> >>
>>>>> >>>>
>>>>> >>> One might parse these things in various ways but you omitted
>>>>> >>> the classic case(s) of the Futurists. They became the
>>>>> >>> Fascists. By directing and regulating industry & commerce,
>>>>> >>> they avoided many of the crippling inefficiencies of the
>>>>> >>> more ardent communists who suffered State 'management'.
>>>>> >>> We're moving our economy and culture much more toward
>>>>> >>> Mussolini, Hitler and Peron than toward Stalin, Kim and Castro.
>>>>> >>
>>>>> >> yup, I see the big plans from the evil communist greenies to
>>>>> >> nationalize US private industries being announced daily
>>>>> >> <eyeroll>. Oh and I'm sure the conservatives _never_ made any
>>>>> >> attempts to take over a private business, right?
>>>>> >>
>>>>> >>
>>>>> >
>>>>> >The large political parties both have deep corruption and
>>>>> >that's not secret. Nor news.
>>>>> >
>>>>> >Trend to a diminished regulated economy with less freedom
>>>>> >and less prosperity is not getting better:
>>>>> >
>>>>> >https://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2022/may/12/joe-biden-cancels-massive-oil-and-gas-lease-sale-d/
>>>>> Yup,
>>>>> In a statement shared first with CBS News, the Department of the
>>>>> Interior cited a "lack of industry interest in leasing in the area"
>>>>> for the decision to "not move forward" with the Cook Inlet lease sale.
>>>>> The department also halted two leases under consideration for the Gulf
>>>>> of Mexico region because of "conflicting court rulings that impacted
>>>>> work on these proposed lease sales."
>>>>> and
>>>>> The Interior Department's Bureau of Ocean Energy Management has
>>>>> previously canceled lease sales in Cook Inlet three times — in 2007,
>>>>> 2008, and 2011 — also citing "lack of industry interest" at the time
>>>>> as the reason for scrapping the sales.
>>>>> https://www.cbsnews.com/news/biden-alaska-oil-gas-lease-sale-canceled/
>>>>> --
>>>>> Cheers,
>>>>>
>>>>> John B.
>>>>
>>>>Yes. I have also seen many stories of leases for oil and gas land,
>>>> that are not being used. The government sold them, but the buyers
>>>> are not developing or trying to get the oil or gas. Very common.
>>>> But we live in a reasonably free society with somewhat free markets,
>>>> so the reasons for these unused oil and gas leases is reasonable.
>>>> No one is trying to rob, steal, cheat anyone else.
>>>>
>>>>https://www.poynter.org/fact-checking/2022/biden-9000-unused-oil-drill-permits/
>>>
>>> I don't remember the cost of drilling a production "shale oil" well
>>> but it is high, somewhere in the $50/bbl range, I'd guess, while a
>>> straight down and start pumping well in Saudi might be less then
>>> $10/bbl.
>>
>>What does "$50/bbl" mean? Are the barrels the total oil that will be
>>produced? barrels/day? barrels/year? How do you know how many barrels
>>you'll get before drilling the well? I know the geologists and
>>reservoir simulators will give you an idea ...
>
> Sales price per barrel for the estimated production period necessary
> to recover drilling and development costs.
>
> Generally the exact numbers will not be known until at least one
> exploration well is drilled and tested but your geology department
> can, to some extent, guesstimate numbers although there are
> innumerable cases of the Geologist getting it wrong.

Thanks. So it is, roughly, barrels produced during the design lifetime
of the well.

AMuzi <am@yellowjersey.org> writes:

> On 5/18/2022 8:06 PM, John B. wrote:
>> On Wed, 18 May 2022 13:46:14 -0400, Radey Shouman
>> <shouman@comcast.net> wrote:
>>
>>> John B. <slocombjb@gmail.com> writes:
>>>
>>>> On Tue, 17 May 2022 17:28:02 -0700 (PDT), "russellseaton1@yahoo.com"
>>>> <ritzannaseaton@gmail.com> wrote:
>>>>
>>>>> On Tuesday, May 17, 2022 at 5:57:13 PM UTC-5, John B. wrote:
>>>>>> On Tue, 17 May 2022 09:15:10 -0500, AMuzi <a...@yellowjersey.org> wrote:
>>>>>>
>>>>>>> On 5/17/2022 5:03 AM, funkma...@hotmail.com wrote:
>>>>>>>> On Monday, May 16, 2022 at 10:16:20 AM UTC-4, AMuzi wrote:
>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>> One might parse these things in various ways but you omitted
>>>>>>>>> the classic case(s) of the Futurists. They became the
>>>>>>>>> Fascists. By directing and regulating industry & commerce,
>>>>>>>>> they avoided many of the crippling inefficiencies of the
>>>>>>>>> more ardent communists who suffered State 'management'.
>>>>>>>>> We're moving our economy and culture much more toward
>>>>>>>>> Mussolini, Hitler and Peron than toward Stalin, Kim and Castro.
>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>> yup, I see the big plans from the evil communist greenies to
>>>>>>>> nationalize US private industries being announced daily
>>>>>>>> <eyeroll>. Oh and I'm sure the conservatives _never_ made any
>>>>>>>> attempts to take over a private business, right?
>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>
>>>>>>> The large political parties both have deep corruption and
>>>>>>> that's not secret. Nor news.
>>>>>>>
>>>>>>> Trend to a diminished regulated economy with less freedom
>>>>>>> and less prosperity is not getting better:
>>>>>>>
>>>>>>> https://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2022/may/12/joe-biden-cancels-massive-oil-and-gas-lease-sale-d/
>>>>>> Yup,
>>>>>> In a statement shared first with CBS News, the Department of the
>>>>>> Interior cited a "lack of industry interest in leasing in the area"
>>>>>> for the decision to "not move forward" with the Cook Inlet lease sale.
>>>>>> The department also halted two leases under consideration for the Gulf
>>>>>> of Mexico region because of "conflicting court rulings that impacted
>>>>>> work on these proposed lease sales."
>>>>>> and
>>>>>> The Interior Department's Bureau of Ocean Energy Management has
>>>>>> previously canceled lease sales in Cook Inlet three times — in 2007,
>>>>>> 2008, and 2011 — also citing "lack of industry interest" at the time
>>>>>> as the reason for scrapping the sales.
>>>>>> https://www.cbsnews.com/news/biden-alaska-oil-gas-lease-sale-canceled/
>>>>>> --
>>>>>> Cheers,
>>>>>>
>>>>>> John B.
>>>>>
>>>>> Yes. I have also seen many stories of leases for oil and gas land,
>>>>> that are not being used. The government sold them, but the buyers
>>>>> are not developing or trying to get the oil or gas. Very common.
>>>>> But we live in a reasonably free society with somewhat free markets,
>>>>> so the reasons for these unused oil and gas leases is reasonable.
>>>>> No one is trying to rob, steal, cheat anyone else.
>>>>>
>>>>> https://www.poynter.org/fact-checking/2022/biden-9000-unused-oil-drill-permits/
>>>>
>>>> I don't remember the cost of drilling a production "shale oil" well
>>>> but it is high, somewhere in the $50/bbl range, I'd guess, while a
>>>> straight down and start pumping well in Saudi might be less then
>>>> $10/bbl.
>>>
>>> What does "$50/bbl" mean? Are the barrels the total oil that will be
>>> produced? barrels/day? barrels/year? How do you know how many barrels
>>> you'll get before drilling the well? I know the geologists and
>>> reservoir simulators will give you an idea ...
>>
>> Sales price per barrel for the estimated production period necessary
>> to recover drilling and development costs.
>>
>> Generally the exact numbers will not be known until at least one
>> exploration well is drilled and tested but your geology department
>> can, to some extent, guesstimate numbers although there are
>> innumerable cases of the Geologist getting it wrong.
>>
>>
>>
>
> That's right, errors happen. But I know oil geologists and generally
> they're accurate enough overall to justify their salaries with a
> profit to the company.

That's actually a very low bar, given the size of revenue streams
involved. If they do any good at all they can probably justify their
salaries. On the other hand, it's possible to do harm ...

Producing oil once a well is drilled is also a tricky problem, one has
to predict multi-phase (oil, water, gas) flow through porous rocks,
often blocked by non-porous rocks, with properties and geometry that
have to remotely estimated. The market in oil also has to be
considered, since it's not practical to store large amounts except in
the ground.

sms <scharf.steven@geemail.com> writes:

> On 5/17/2022 8:13 PM, John B. wrote:
>
> <snip>
>
>> I don't remember the cost of drilling a production "shale oil" well
>> but it is high, somewhere in the $50/bbl range, I'd guess, while a
>> straight down and start pumping well in Saudi might be less then
>> $10/bbl.
>
> "In Saudi Arabia and Kuwait, production costs per barrel rarely
> exceeded $10 per barrel throughout the study period, and median costs
> were $5.40 a barrel."
>
> There's a misconception that when the oil futures price goes to
> $100/bbl that the major oil companies are all paying $100/bbl for the
> oil that they refine into gasoline, but of course that is not the case
> because they are producing oil from the wells that they own, not
> buying oil on the world market.

If they could sell that oil at $100/bbl, then that is their opportunity
cost, and what the refinery operation should be considered to pay,
regardless of whether it's actually paid to an outside firm.

> If the Saudi's crashed the price of oil it would be a big problem for
> both Russian and U.S. oil companies. OTOH, by keeping the price high,
> they are encouraging the move to electric vehicles which is bad for
> them in the long term.
>

--

On Wednesday, May 18, 2022 at 8:01:01 PM UTC-4, russellseaton1@yahoo.com wrote:
> On Wednesday, May 18, 2022 at 3:49:05 AM UTC-5, funkma...@hotmail.com wrote:
> > On Tuesday, May 17, 2022 at 6:43:47 PM UTC-4, Frank Krygowski wrote:
> > > On 5/17/2022 3:16 PM, Tom Kunich wrote:
> > > > On Tuesday, May 17, 2022 at 2:12:56 AM UTC-7, Rolf Mantel wrote:
> > > >> Am 17.05.2022 um 10:32 schrieb Lou Holtman:
> > > >>> On Tuesday, May 17, 2022 at 7:59:33 AM UTC+2, John B. wrote:
> > > >>>
> > > >>>>
> > > >>>> Example... when I was a young man my father, who worked in the Post
> > > >>>> Office, could afford to send his kids, my brother and I, to collage.
> > > >>>> No loans, no borrowing money from relatives, just a check every month
> > > >>>> for the tuition and so on. Today I read about all the government
> > > >>>> collage loans and the difficulties young people have in repaying them.
> > > >>>
> > > >>> And why is this?
> > > >>
> > > >> A typical "delay feedback loop":
> > > >>
> > > >> 1) Studies find out that people with a college degree earn significantly
> > > >> more money during their lifetime
> > > >> 2) More people are willing to pay to go to college
> > > >> 3) colleges increase their tuition fees massively
> > > >> 4)more college graduates one the market reduce the wage gap between
> > > >> college graduates and non-graduates
> > > >>
> > > >> Step 3 mostly happend during the 1990's, step 4 is still ongoing
> > > >>
> > > >> In Germany, standard University education is paid for by the govermnent,
> > > >> students only have to take out loans (or jobs) for their cost of living.
> > > >
> > > > These studies are outdated. I without a doubt would have made a great deal more money and better retirement benefits had I remained working as a technician for the Bay Area Rapid Transit district or as a Telephone Installation Technician as partner in a firm.
> > > >
> > > > Carpenters, Plumbers and concrete workers if they work for solid companies that can keep them working and making reasonable overtime will ALL earn higher wages than MOST college educations. Russell probably has first hand knowledge of this if he owns a home and has to have normal maintenance work completed. I had crown molding installed in ONE room by a carpenter who completed the world in under 4 hours for $2,200. He did a good job and I can't complain. I had to have my sewer pipe replaced out into the street and it took a good reliable company 4 hours and that was $8,500. These were well before the Biden inflation.
> > > >
> > > > I made up to a quarter million a year with a high school diploma and a two year city college. Neither of these helped my job. But I was also known as a problem solver and as managers moved around they knew they could call on me to fix their problems
> > > How odd. Tom told us he had a GED instead of a high school diploma, and
> > > bragged about walking away from that two year college because he knew
> > > more than the teachers. How stories change!
> > Right, I could have sworn that a while back he said he got a 4-year liberal arts degree at some bay area college (don't recall if it was a community college or a small private school) by going nights while working full time, paid for by the company he worked for at the time - though he resume show he was was only employed by them for 4 years.
> >
> Are you remembering the time Tommy said he was Captain or Commander of a ship and took sailing lessons or graduated from the sailing school. With a degree I guess.

No, that's yet another case of him writing about his fantasy life. I was more amused that he claimed to have received a BA going nights in less than 4 years

> > Of course that would mean he went to school full time while working full time. I guess that's doable, but tommy?
> > >
> > > There are some craftsmen like finish carpenters, welders, etc. who do
> > > very well, most often by working all the overtime they can possibly fit
> > > in their lives. But data, in contrast with anecdotes, indicate that on
> > > average, college degrees do pay off monetarily (not to mention in other
> > > ways).
> > > https://www.pewresearch.org/social-trends/2011/05/15/chapter-5-the-monetary-value-of-a-college-education/
> > >
> > > Of course, if you're interested in a good financial return, it pays to
> > > carefully choose both the college and the major. Worst case is probably
> > > something like an Art History or Peace Studies degree from a major Ivy
> > > League school - expensive, and little market for whatever specialized
> > > skills one learns. Best choice is probably an engineering degree from a
> > > good state school.
> > > https://bigeconomics.org/the-college-majors-that-pay-off-and-those-that-dont/
> > >
> > > I haven't been able to find any decent data on high school dropouts who
> > > are smarter than everyone else in the world. Odd, that.
> > >
> > > --
> > > - Frank Krygowski

On Thu, 19 May 2022 11:55:44 -0400, Radey Shouman
<shouman@comcast.net> wrote:

>sms <scharf.steven@geemail.com> writes:
>
>> On 5/17/2022 8:13 PM, John B. wrote:
>>
>> <snip>
>>
>>> I don't remember the cost of drilling a production "shale oil" well
>>> but it is high, somewhere in the $50/bbl range, I'd guess, while a
>>> straight down and start pumping well in Saudi might be less then
>>> $10/bbl.
>>
>> "In Saudi Arabia and Kuwait, production costs per barrel rarely
>> exceeded $10 per barrel throughout the study period, and median costs
>> were $5.40 a barrel."
>>
>> There's a misconception that when the oil futures price goes to
>> $100/bbl that the major oil companies are all paying $100/bbl for the
>> oil that they refine into gasoline, but of course that is not the case
>> because they are producing oil from the wells that they own, not
>> buying oil on the world market.
>
>If they could sell that oil at $100/bbl, then that is their opportunity
>cost, and what the refinery operation should be considered to pay,
>regardless of whether it's actually paid to an outside firm.
>

Theoretically, but the major "oil" companies are in the business of
selling a refined product, not the raw materials. If every barrel of
crude oil sucked out of the ground were to placed on the market the
price would undoubtedly tumble.

Which puts Saudi, who essentially does sell it's raw product very much
in the driver's seat when it comes to oil prices.
--
Cheers,

John B.

On Thu, 19 May 2022 11:45:43 -0400, Radey Shouman
<shouman@comcast.net> wrote:

>John B. <slocombjb@gmail.com> writes:
>
>> On Wed, 18 May 2022 13:46:14 -0400, Radey Shouman
>> <shouman@comcast.net> wrote:
>>
>>>John B. <slocombjb@gmail.com> writes:
>>>
>>>> On Tue, 17 May 2022 17:28:02 -0700 (PDT), "russellseaton1@yahoo.com"
>>>> <ritzannaseaton@gmail.com> wrote:
>>>>
>>>>>On Tuesday, May 17, 2022 at 5:57:13 PM UTC-5, John B. wrote:
>>>>>> On Tue, 17 May 2022 09:15:10 -0500, AMuzi <a...@yellowjersey.org> wrote:
>>>>>>
>>>>>> >On 5/17/2022 5:03 AM, funkma...@hotmail.com wrote:
>>>>>> >> On Monday, May 16, 2022 at 10:16:20 AM UTC-4, AMuzi wrote:
>>>>>> >>
>>>>>> >>>>
>>>>>> >>> One might parse these things in various ways but you omitted
>>>>>> >>> the classic case(s) of the Futurists. They became the
>>>>>> >>> Fascists. By directing and regulating industry & commerce,
>>>>>> >>> they avoided many of the crippling inefficiencies of the
>>>>>> >>> more ardent communists who suffered State 'management'.
>>>>>> >>> We're moving our economy and culture much more toward
>>>>>> >>> Mussolini, Hitler and Peron than toward Stalin, Kim and Castro.
>>>>>> >>
>>>>>> >> yup, I see the big plans from the evil communist greenies to
>>>>>> >> nationalize US private industries being announced daily
>>>>>> >> <eyeroll>. Oh and I'm sure the conservatives _never_ made any
>>>>>> >> attempts to take over a private business, right?
>>>>>> >>
>>>>>> >>
>>>>>> >
>>>>>> >The large political parties both have deep corruption and
>>>>>> >that's not secret. Nor news.
>>>>>> >
>>>>>> >Trend to a diminished regulated economy with less freedom
>>>>>> >and less prosperity is not getting better:
>>>>>> >
>>>>>> >https://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2022/may/12/joe-biden-cancels-massive-oil-and-gas-lease-sale-d/
>>>>>> Yup,
>>>>>> In a statement shared first with CBS News, the Department of the
>>>>>> Interior cited a "lack of industry interest in leasing in the area"
>>>>>> for the decision to "not move forward" with the Cook Inlet lease sale.
>>>>>> The department also halted two leases under consideration for the Gulf
>>>>>> of Mexico region because of "conflicting court rulings that impacted
>>>>>> work on these proposed lease sales."
>>>>>> and
>>>>>> The Interior Department's Bureau of Ocean Energy Management has
>>>>>> previously canceled lease sales in Cook Inlet three times — in 2007,
>>>>>> 2008, and 2011 — also citing "lack of industry interest" at the time
>>>>>> as the reason for scrapping the sales.
>>>>>> https://www.cbsnews.com/news/biden-alaska-oil-gas-lease-sale-canceled/
>>>>>> --
>>>>>> Cheers,
>>>>>>
>>>>>> John B.
>>>>>
>>>>>Yes. I have also seen many stories of leases for oil and gas land,
>>>>> that are not being used. The government sold them, but the buyers
>>>>> are not developing or trying to get the oil or gas. Very common.
>>>>> But we live in a reasonably free society with somewhat free markets,
>>>>> so the reasons for these unused oil and gas leases is reasonable.
>>>>> No one is trying to rob, steal, cheat anyone else.
>>>>>
>>>>>https://www.poynter.org/fact-checking/2022/biden-9000-unused-oil-drill-permits/
>>>>
>>>> I don't remember the cost of drilling a production "shale oil" well
>>>> but it is high, somewhere in the $50/bbl range, I'd guess, while a
>>>> straight down and start pumping well in Saudi might be less then
>>>> $10/bbl.
>>>
>>>What does "$50/bbl" mean? Are the barrels the total oil that will be
>>>produced? barrels/day? barrels/year? How do you know how many barrels
>>>you'll get before drilling the well? I know the geologists and
>>>reservoir simulators will give you an idea ...
>>
>> Sales price per barrel for the estimated production period necessary
>> to recover drilling and development costs.
>>
>> Generally the exact numbers will not be known until at least one
>> exploration well is drilled and tested but your geology department
>> can, to some extent, guesstimate numbers although there are
>> innumerable cases of the Geologist getting it wrong.
>
>Thanks. So it is, roughly, barrels produced during the design lifetime
>of the well.

Well, yes... except for the word "design". Substitute "Expected", or
even "Hoped for" :-).

--
Cheers,

John B.

John B. <slocombjb@gmail.com> writes:

> On Thu, 19 May 2022 11:55:44 -0400, Radey Shouman
> <shouman@comcast.net> wrote:
>
>>sms <scharf.steven@geemail.com> writes:
>>
>>> On 5/17/2022 8:13 PM, John B. wrote:
>>>
>>> <snip>
>>>
>>>> I don't remember the cost of drilling a production "shale oil" well
>>>> but it is high, somewhere in the $50/bbl range, I'd guess, while a
>>>> straight down and start pumping well in Saudi might be less then
>>>> $10/bbl.
>>>
>>> "In Saudi Arabia and Kuwait, production costs per barrel rarely
>>> exceeded $10 per barrel throughout the study period, and median costs
>>> were $5.40 a barrel."
>>>
>>> There's a misconception that when the oil futures price goes to
>>> $100/bbl that the major oil companies are all paying $100/bbl for the
>>> oil that they refine into gasoline, but of course that is not the case
>>> because they are producing oil from the wells that they own, not
>>> buying oil on the world market.
>>
>>If they could sell that oil at $100/bbl, then that is their opportunity
>>cost, and what the refinery operation should be considered to pay,
>>regardless of whether it's actually paid to an outside firm.
>>
>
> Theoretically, but the major "oil" companies are in the business of
> selling a refined product, not the raw materials. If every barrel of
> crude oil sucked out of the ground were to placed on the market the
> price would undoubtedly tumble.

The price of crude might tumble, but the price of finished products
would rise. If you're running an operation that's a part of a
vertically integrated corporation, you normally have to keep accounts
for your operation internally. Transfer prices from one unit of the
corporation to another may be somewhat theoretical, but in a well run
operation they're not crazy.

> Which puts Saudi, who essentially does sell it's raw product very much
> in the driver's seat when it comes to oil prices.

They would be better off selling finished products, but they don't have
the workforce and infrastructure to make that happen.

John B. <slocombjb@gmail.com> writes:

> On Thu, 19 May 2022 11:45:43 -0400, Radey Shouman
> <shouman@comcast.net> wrote:
>
>>John B. <slocombjb@gmail.com> writes:
>>
>>> On Wed, 18 May 2022 13:46:14 -0400, Radey Shouman
>>> <shouman@comcast.net> wrote:
>>>
>>>>John B. <slocombjb@gmail.com> writes:
>>>>
>>>>> On Tue, 17 May 2022 17:28:02 -0700 (PDT), "russellseaton1@yahoo.com"
>>>>> <ritzannaseaton@gmail.com> wrote:
>>>>>
>>>>>>On Tuesday, May 17, 2022 at 5:57:13 PM UTC-5, John B. wrote:
>>>>>>> On Tue, 17 May 2022 09:15:10 -0500, AMuzi <a...@yellowjersey.org> wrote:
>>>>>>>
>>>>>>> >On 5/17/2022 5:03 AM, funkma...@hotmail.com wrote:
>>>>>>> >> On Monday, May 16, 2022 at 10:16:20 AM UTC-4, AMuzi wrote:
>>>>>>> >>
>>>>>>> >>>>
>>>>>>> >>> One might parse these things in various ways but you omitted
>>>>>>> >>> the classic case(s) of the Futurists. They became the
>>>>>>> >>> Fascists. By directing and regulating industry & commerce,
>>>>>>> >>> they avoided many of the crippling inefficiencies of the
>>>>>>> >>> more ardent communists who suffered State 'management'.
>>>>>>> >>> We're moving our economy and culture much more toward
>>>>>>> >>> Mussolini, Hitler and Peron than toward Stalin, Kim and Castro.
>>>>>>> >>
>>>>>>> >> yup, I see the big plans from the evil communist greenies to
>>>>>>> >> nationalize US private industries being announced daily
>>>>>>> >> <eyeroll>. Oh and I'm sure the conservatives _never_ made any
>>>>>>> >> attempts to take over a private business, right?
>>>>>>> >>
>>>>>>> >>
>>>>>>> >
>>>>>>> >The large political parties both have deep corruption and
>>>>>>> >that's not secret. Nor news.
>>>>>>> >
>>>>>>> >Trend to a diminished regulated economy with less freedom
>>>>>>> >and less prosperity is not getting better:
>>>>>>> >
>>>>>>> >https://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2022/may/12/joe-biden-cancels-massive-oil-and-gas-lease-sale-d/
>>>>>>> Yup,
>>>>>>> In a statement shared first with CBS News, the Department of the
>>>>>>> Interior cited a "lack of industry interest in leasing in the area"
>>>>>>> for the decision to "not move forward" with the Cook Inlet lease sale.
>>>>>>> The department also halted two leases under consideration for the Gulf
>>>>>>> of Mexico region because of "conflicting court rulings that impacted
>>>>>>> work on these proposed lease sales."
>>>>>>> and
>>>>>>> The Interior Department's Bureau of Ocean Energy Management has
>>>>>>> previously canceled lease sales in Cook Inlet three times — in 2007,
>>>>>>> 2008, and 2011 — also citing "lack of industry interest" at the time
>>>>>>> as the reason for scrapping the sales.
>>>>>>> https://www.cbsnews.com/news/biden-alaska-oil-gas-lease-sale-canceled/
>>>>>>> --
>>>>>>> Cheers,
>>>>>>>
>>>>>>> John B.
>>>>>>
>>>>>>Yes. I have also seen many stories of leases for oil and gas land,
>>>>>> that are not being used. The government sold them, but the buyers
>>>>>> are not developing or trying to get the oil or gas. Very common.
>>>>>> But we live in a reasonably free society with somewhat free markets,
>>>>>> so the reasons for these unused oil and gas leases is reasonable.
>>>>>> No one is trying to rob, steal, cheat anyone else.
>>>>>>
>>>>>>https://www.poynter.org/fact-checking/2022/biden-9000-unused-oil-drill-permits/
>>>>>
>>>>> I don't remember the cost of drilling a production "shale oil" well
>>>>> but it is high, somewhere in the $50/bbl range, I'd guess, while a
>>>>> straight down and start pumping well in Saudi might be less then
>>>>> $10/bbl.
>>>>
>>>>What does "$50/bbl" mean? Are the barrels the total oil that will be
>>>>produced? barrels/day? barrels/year? How do you know how many barrels
>>>>you'll get before drilling the well? I know the geologists and
>>>>reservoir simulators will give you an idea ...
>>>
>>> Sales price per barrel for the estimated production period necessary
>>> to recover drilling and development costs.
>>>
>>> Generally the exact numbers will not be known until at least one
>>> exploration well is drilled and tested but your geology department
>>> can, to some extent, guesstimate numbers although there are
>>> innumerable cases of the Geologist getting it wrong.
>>
>>Thanks. So it is, roughly, barrels produced during the design lifetime
>>of the well.
>
> Well, yes... except for the word "design". Substitute "Expected", or
> even "Hoped for" :-).

"Minimum expected" is what "design" means. If your management is reasonably
conservative it's quite a bit less than what they hope for. And of
course everything has to be brough to net present value using an assumed
interest rate, which is also uncertain.

On 5/19/2022 7:38 PM, Radey Shouman wrote:
> John B. <slocombjb@gmail.com> writes:
>
>> On Thu, 19 May 2022 11:45:43 -0400, Radey Shouman
>> <shouman@comcast.net> wrote:
>>
>>> John B. <slocombjb@gmail.com> writes:
>>>
>>>> On Wed, 18 May 2022 13:46:14 -0400, Radey Shouman
>>>> <shouman@comcast.net> wrote:
>>>>
>>>>> John B. <slocombjb@gmail.com> writes:
>>>>>
>>>>>> On Tue, 17 May 2022 17:28:02 -0700 (PDT), "russellseaton1@yahoo.com"
>>>>>> <ritzannaseaton@gmail.com> wrote:
>>>>>>
>>>>>>> On Tuesday, May 17, 2022 at 5:57:13 PM UTC-5, John B. wrote:
>>>>>>>> On Tue, 17 May 2022 09:15:10 -0500, AMuzi <a...@yellowjersey.org> wrote:
>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>> On 5/17/2022 5:03 AM, funkma...@hotmail.com wrote:
>>>>>>>>>> On Monday, May 16, 2022 at 10:16:20 AM UTC-4, AMuzi wrote:
>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>> One might parse these things in various ways but you omitted
>>>>>>>>>>> the classic case(s) of the Futurists. They became the
>>>>>>>>>>> Fascists. By directing and regulating industry & commerce,
>>>>>>>>>>> they avoided many of the crippling inefficiencies of the
>>>>>>>>>>> more ardent communists who suffered State 'management'.
>>>>>>>>>>> We're moving our economy and culture much more toward
>>>>>>>>>>> Mussolini, Hitler and Peron than toward Stalin, Kim and Castro.
>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>> yup, I see the big plans from the evil communist greenies to
>>>>>>>>>> nationalize US private industries being announced daily
>>>>>>>>>> <eyeroll>. Oh and I'm sure the conservatives _never_ made any
>>>>>>>>>> attempts to take over a private business, right?
>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>> The large political parties both have deep corruption and
>>>>>>>>> that's not secret. Nor news.
>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>> Trend to a diminished regulated economy with less freedom
>>>>>>>>> and less prosperity is not getting better:
>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>> https://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2022/may/12/joe-biden-cancels-massive-oil-and-gas-lease-sale-d/
>>>>>>>> Yup,
>>>>>>>> In a statement shared first with CBS News, the Department of the
>>>>>>>> Interior cited a "lack of industry interest in leasing in the area"
>>>>>>>> for the decision to "not move forward" with the Cook Inlet lease sale.
>>>>>>>> The department also halted two leases under consideration for the Gulf
>>>>>>>> of Mexico region because of "conflicting court rulings that impacted
>>>>>>>> work on these proposed lease sales."
>>>>>>>> and
>>>>>>>> The Interior Department's Bureau of Ocean Energy Management has
>>>>>>>> previously canceled lease sales in Cook Inlet three times — in 2007,
>>>>>>>> 2008, and 2011 — also citing "lack of industry interest" at the time
>>>>>>>> as the reason for scrapping the sales.
>>>>>>>> https://www.cbsnews.com/news/biden-alaska-oil-gas-lease-sale-canceled/
>>>>>>>> --
>>>>>>>> Cheers,
>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>> John B.
>>>>>>>
>>>>>>> Yes. I have also seen many stories of leases for oil and gas land,
>>>>>>> that are not being used. The government sold them, but the buyers
>>>>>>> are not developing or trying to get the oil or gas. Very common.
>>>>>>> But we live in a reasonably free society with somewhat free markets,
>>>>>>> so the reasons for these unused oil and gas leases is reasonable.
>>>>>>> No one is trying to rob, steal, cheat anyone else.
>>>>>>>
>>>>>>> https://www.poynter.org/fact-checking/2022/biden-9000-unused-oil-drill-permits/
>>>>>>
>>>>>> I don't remember the cost of drilling a production "shale oil" well
>>>>>> but it is high, somewhere in the $50/bbl range, I'd guess, while a
>>>>>> straight down and start pumping well in Saudi might be less then
>>>>>> $10/bbl.
>>>>>
>>>>> What does "$50/bbl" mean? Are the barrels the total oil that will be
>>>>> produced? barrels/day? barrels/year? How do you know how many barrels
>>>>> you'll get before drilling the well? I know the geologists and
>>>>> reservoir simulators will give you an idea ...
>>>>
>>>> Sales price per barrel for the estimated production period necessary
>>>> to recover drilling and development costs.
>>>>
>>>> Generally the exact numbers will not be known until at least one
>>>> exploration well is drilled and tested but your geology department
>>>> can, to some extent, guesstimate numbers although there are
>>>> innumerable cases of the Geologist getting it wrong.
>>>
>>> Thanks. So it is, roughly, barrels produced during the design lifetime
>>> of the well.
>>
>> Well, yes... except for the word "design". Substitute "Expected", or
>> even "Hoped for" :-).
>
> "Minimum expected" is what "design" means. If your management is reasonably
> conservative it's quite a bit less than what they hope for. And of
> course everything has to be brough to net present value using an assumed
> interest rate, which is also uncertain.
>

+1
All of it is rigor, not magic. The skill is making decisions
with imperfect information.

--
Andrew Muzi
<www.yellowjersey.org/>
Open every day since 1 April, 1971

On Thu, 19 May 2022 20:34:21 -0400, Radey Shouman
<shouman@comcast.net> wrote:

>John B. <slocombjb@gmail.com> writes:
>
>> On Thu, 19 May 2022 11:55:44 -0400, Radey Shouman
>> <shouman@comcast.net> wrote:
>>
>>>sms <scharf.steven@geemail.com> writes:
>>>
>>>> On 5/17/2022 8:13 PM, John B. wrote:
>>>>
>>>> <snip>
>>>>
>>>>> I don't remember the cost of drilling a production "shale oil" well
>>>>> but it is high, somewhere in the $50/bbl range, I'd guess, while a
>>>>> straight down and start pumping well in Saudi might be less then
>>>>> $10/bbl.
>>>>
>>>> "In Saudi Arabia and Kuwait, production costs per barrel rarely
>>>> exceeded $10 per barrel throughout the study period, and median costs
>>>> were $5.40 a barrel."
>>>>
>>>> There's a misconception that when the oil futures price goes to
>>>> $100/bbl that the major oil companies are all paying $100/bbl for the
>>>> oil that they refine into gasoline, but of course that is not the case
>>>> because they are producing oil from the wells that they own, not
>>>> buying oil on the world market.
>>>
>>>If they could sell that oil at $100/bbl, then that is their opportunity
>>>cost, and what the refinery operation should be considered to pay,
>>>regardless of whether it's actually paid to an outside firm.
>>>
>>
>> Theoretically, but the major "oil" companies are in the business of
>> selling a refined product, not the raw materials. If every barrel of
>> crude oil sucked out of the ground were to placed on the market the
>> price would undoubtedly tumble.
>
>The price of crude might tumble, but the price of finished products
>would rise. If you're running an operation that's a part of a
>vertically integrated corporation, you normally have to keep accounts
>for your operation internally. Transfer prices from one unit of the
>corporation to another may be somewhat theoretical, but in a well run
>operation they're not crazy.

My experience, as a contractor to major oil companies operating in
Indonesia, was that they were very knowledgeable about costs. I
remember talking to a Drilling Manager about the feasibility of
drilling on a rather remote lease in Western New Guinea. In the
conversation he said something like, "Of course to be profitable in
that area they would have to be 1,000 bbl a day wells".

>They would be better off selling finished products, but they don't have
>the workforce and infrastructure to make that happen.

Perhaps. But not necessarily true. I remember a period when Indonesia,
producing some 1.5 million bbl oil per day, found it cheaper to import
kerosene from Singapore.
--
Cheers,

John B.

On 5/19/2022 8:10 PM, John B. wrote:
> On Thu, 19 May 2022 20:34:21 -0400, Radey Shouman
> <shouman@comcast.net> wrote:
>
>> John B. <slocombjb@gmail.com> writes:
>>
>>> On Thu, 19 May 2022 11:55:44 -0400, Radey Shouman
>>> <shouman@comcast.net> wrote:
>>>
>>>> sms <scharf.steven@geemail.com> writes:
>>>>
>>>>> On 5/17/2022 8:13 PM, John B. wrote:
>>>>>
>>>>> <snip>
>>>>>
>>>>>> I don't remember the cost of drilling a production "shale oil" well
>>>>>> but it is high, somewhere in the $50/bbl range, I'd guess, while a
>>>>>> straight down and start pumping well in Saudi might be less then
>>>>>> $10/bbl.
>>>>>
>>>>> "In Saudi Arabia and Kuwait, production costs per barrel rarely
>>>>> exceeded $10 per barrel throughout the study period, and median costs
>>>>> were $5.40 a barrel."
>>>>>
>>>>> There's a misconception that when the oil futures price goes to
>>>>> $100/bbl that the major oil companies are all paying $100/bbl for the
>>>>> oil that they refine into gasoline, but of course that is not the case
>>>>> because they are producing oil from the wells that they own, not
>>>>> buying oil on the world market.
>>>>
>>>> If they could sell that oil at $100/bbl, then that is their opportunity
>>>> cost, and what the refinery operation should be considered to pay,
>>>> regardless of whether it's actually paid to an outside firm.
>>>>
>>>
>>> Theoretically, but the major "oil" companies are in the business of
>>> selling a refined product, not the raw materials. If every barrel of
>>> crude oil sucked out of the ground were to placed on the market the
>>> price would undoubtedly tumble.
>>
>> The price of crude might tumble, but the price of finished products
>> would rise. If you're running an operation that's a part of a
>> vertically integrated corporation, you normally have to keep accounts
>> for your operation internally. Transfer prices from one unit of the
>> corporation to another may be somewhat theoretical, but in a well run
>> operation they're not crazy.
>
> My experience, as a contractor to major oil companies operating in
> Indonesia, was that they were very knowledgeable about costs. I
> remember talking to a Drilling Manager about the feasibility of
> drilling on a rather remote lease in Western New Guinea. In the
> conversation he said something like, "Of course to be profitable in
> that area they would have to be 1,000 bbl a day wells".
>
>> They would be better off selling finished products, but they don't have
>> the workforce and infrastructure to make that happen.
>
> Perhaps. But not necessarily true. I remember a period when Indonesia,
> producing some 1.5 million bbl oil per day, found it cheaper to import
> kerosene from Singapore.
>

And qualitative differences too. Not that long ago,
Venezuelan crude was refined in Aruba for the US fuel market
as that type of oil wasn't compatible to US Gulf refineries.

--
Andrew Muzi
<www.yellowjersey.org/>
Open every day since 1 April, 1971

On Thu, 19 May 2022 20:38:50 -0400, Radey Shouman
<shouman@comcast.net> wrote:

>John B. <slocombjb@gmail.com> writes:
>
>> On Thu, 19 May 2022 11:45:43 -0400, Radey Shouman
>> <shouman@comcast.net> wrote:
>>
>>>John B. <slocombjb@gmail.com> writes:
>>>
>>>> On Wed, 18 May 2022 13:46:14 -0400, Radey Shouman
>>>> <shouman@comcast.net> wrote:
>>>>
>>>>>John B. <slocombjb@gmail.com> writes:
>>>>>
>>>>>> On Tue, 17 May 2022 17:28:02 -0700 (PDT), "russellseaton1@yahoo.com"
>>>>>> <ritzannaseaton@gmail.com> wrote:
>>>>>>
>>>>>>>On Tuesday, May 17, 2022 at 5:57:13 PM UTC-5, John B. wrote:
>>>>>>>> On Tue, 17 May 2022 09:15:10 -0500, AMuzi <a...@yellowjersey.org> wrote:
>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>> >On 5/17/2022 5:03 AM, funkma...@hotmail.com wrote:
>>>>>>>> >> On Monday, May 16, 2022 at 10:16:20 AM UTC-4, AMuzi wrote:
>>>>>>>> >>
>>>>>>>> >>>>
>>>>>>>> >>> One might parse these things in various ways but you omitted
>>>>>>>> >>> the classic case(s) of the Futurists. They became the
>>>>>>>> >>> Fascists. By directing and regulating industry & commerce,
>>>>>>>> >>> they avoided many of the crippling inefficiencies of the
>>>>>>>> >>> more ardent communists who suffered State 'management'.
>>>>>>>> >>> We're moving our economy and culture much more toward
>>>>>>>> >>> Mussolini, Hitler and Peron than toward Stalin, Kim and Castro.
>>>>>>>> >>
>>>>>>>> >> yup, I see the big plans from the evil communist greenies to
>>>>>>>> >> nationalize US private industries being announced daily
>>>>>>>> >> <eyeroll>. Oh and I'm sure the conservatives _never_ made any
>>>>>>>> >> attempts to take over a private business, right?
>>>>>>>> >>
>>>>>>>> >>
>>>>>>>> >
>>>>>>>> >The large political parties both have deep corruption and
>>>>>>>> >that's not secret. Nor news.
>>>>>>>> >
>>>>>>>> >Trend to a diminished regulated economy with less freedom
>>>>>>>> >and less prosperity is not getting better:
>>>>>>>> >
>>>>>>>> >https://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2022/may/12/joe-biden-cancels-massive-oil-and-gas-lease-sale-d/
>>>>>>>> Yup,
>>>>>>>> In a statement shared first with CBS News, the Department of the
>>>>>>>> Interior cited a "lack of industry interest in leasing in the area"
>>>>>>>> for the decision to "not move forward" with the Cook Inlet lease sale.
>>>>>>>> The department also halted two leases under consideration for the Gulf
>>>>>>>> of Mexico region because of "conflicting court rulings that impacted
>>>>>>>> work on these proposed lease sales."
>>>>>>>> and
>>>>>>>> The Interior Department's Bureau of Ocean Energy Management has
>>>>>>>> previously canceled lease sales in Cook Inlet three times — in 2007,
>>>>>>>> 2008, and 2011 — also citing "lack of industry interest" at the time
>>>>>>>> as the reason for scrapping the sales.
>>>>>>>> https://www.cbsnews.com/news/biden-alaska-oil-gas-lease-sale-canceled/
>>>>>>>> --
>>>>>>>> Cheers,
>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>> John B.
>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>Yes. I have also seen many stories of leases for oil and gas land,
>>>>>>> that are not being used. The government sold them, but the buyers
>>>>>>> are not developing or trying to get the oil or gas. Very common.
>>>>>>> But we live in a reasonably free society with somewhat free markets,
>>>>>>> so the reasons for these unused oil and gas leases is reasonable.
>>>>>>> No one is trying to rob, steal, cheat anyone else.
>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>https://www.poynter.org/fact-checking/2022/biden-9000-unused-oil-drill-permits/
>>>>>>
>>>>>> I don't remember the cost of drilling a production "shale oil" well
>>>>>> but it is high, somewhere in the $50/bbl range, I'd guess, while a
>>>>>> straight down and start pumping well in Saudi might be less then
>>>>>> $10/bbl.
>>>>>
>>>>>What does "$50/bbl" mean? Are the barrels the total oil that will be
>>>>>produced? barrels/day? barrels/year? How do you know how many barrels
>>>>>you'll get before drilling the well? I know the geologists and
>>>>>reservoir simulators will give you an idea ...
>>>>
>>>> Sales price per barrel for the estimated production period necessary
>>>> to recover drilling and development costs.
>>>>
>>>> Generally the exact numbers will not be known until at least one
>>>> exploration well is drilled and tested but your geology department
>>>> can, to some extent, guesstimate numbers although there are
>>>> innumerable cases of the Geologist getting it wrong.
>>>
>>>Thanks. So it is, roughly, barrels produced during the design lifetime
>>>of the well.
>>
>> Well, yes... except for the word "design". Substitute "Expected", or
>> even "Hoped for" :-).
>
>"Minimum expected" is what "design" means. If your management is reasonably
>conservative it's quite a bit less than what they hope for. And of
>course everything has to be brough to net present value using an assumed
>interest rate, which is also uncertain.

Not necessarily. It is very much a matter of semantics.

Oil Wells are "designed" largely based on tested flow rates. i.e, if a
well flows at, well say, 10,000 bbl/day, in an open hole test the one
doesn't size downhole components for a 100bbl/day well.

As for a "field" then on a "do it or don't" decision is made. I worked
on one project in Western New Guinea where three exploration wells
were drilled over a large area and oil was found, but reservoir
pressure was almost nonexistent and the lease was abandoned.
--
Cheers,

John B.

On Thu, 19 May 2022 20:24:29 -0500, AMuzi <am@yellowjersey.org> wrote:

>On 5/19/2022 8:10 PM, John B. wrote:
>> On Thu, 19 May 2022 20:34:21 -0400, Radey Shouman
>> <shouman@comcast.net> wrote:
>>
>>> John B. <slocombjb@gmail.com> writes:
>>>
>>>> On Thu, 19 May 2022 11:55:44 -0400, Radey Shouman
>>>> <shouman@comcast.net> wrote:
>>>>
>>>>> sms <scharf.steven@geemail.com> writes:
>>>>>
>>>>>> On 5/17/2022 8:13 PM, John B. wrote:
>>>>>>
>>>>>> <snip>
>>>>>>
>>>>>>> I don't remember the cost of drilling a production "shale oil" well
>>>>>>> but it is high, somewhere in the $50/bbl range, I'd guess, while a
>>>>>>> straight down and start pumping well in Saudi might be less then
>>>>>>> $10/bbl.
>>>>>>
>>>>>> "In Saudi Arabia and Kuwait, production costs per barrel rarely
>>>>>> exceeded $10 per barrel throughout the study period, and median costs
>>>>>> were $5.40 a barrel."
>>>>>>
>>>>>> There's a misconception that when the oil futures price goes to
>>>>>> $100/bbl that the major oil companies are all paying $100/bbl for the
>>>>>> oil that they refine into gasoline, but of course that is not the case
>>>>>> because they are producing oil from the wells that they own, not
>>>>>> buying oil on the world market.
>>>>>
>>>>> If they could sell that oil at $100/bbl, then that is their opportunity
>>>>> cost, and what the refinery operation should be considered to pay,
>>>>> regardless of whether it's actually paid to an outside firm.
>>>>>
>>>>
>>>> Theoretically, but the major "oil" companies are in the business of
>>>> selling a refined product, not the raw materials. If every barrel of
>>>> crude oil sucked out of the ground were to placed on the market the
>>>> price would undoubtedly tumble.
>>>
>>> The price of crude might tumble, but the price of finished products
>>> would rise. If you're running an operation that's a part of a
>>> vertically integrated corporation, you normally have to keep accounts
>>> for your operation internally. Transfer prices from one unit of the
>>> corporation to another may be somewhat theoretical, but in a well run
>>> operation they're not crazy.
>>
>> My experience, as a contractor to major oil companies operating in
>> Indonesia, was that they were very knowledgeable about costs. I
>> remember talking to a Drilling Manager about the feasibility of
>> drilling on a rather remote lease in Western New Guinea. In the
>> conversation he said something like, "Of course to be profitable in
>> that area they would have to be 1,000 bbl a day wells".
>>
>>> They would be better off selling finished products, but they don't have
>>> the workforce and infrastructure to make that happen.
>>
>> Perhaps. But not necessarily true. I remember a period when Indonesia,
>> producing some 1.5 million bbl oil per day, found it cheaper to import
>> kerosene from Singapore.
>>
>
>And qualitative differences too. Not that long ago,
>Venezuelan crude was refined in Aruba for the US fuel market
>as that type of oil wasn't compatible to US Gulf refineries.

That is certainly true in more then one case. I believe that when the
Alaskan pipeline was finally finished and oil was being shipped that a
certain amount was being sold to Japan and foreign oil imported. There
was some sort of big To-Do about it and it turned out that some W.
Coast refineries weren't able to handle the heavier Alaskan crude and
imported lighter foreign oil.
--
Cheers,

John B.

John B. <slocombjb@gmail.com> writes:

> On Thu, 19 May 2022 20:38:50 -0400, Radey Shouman
> <shouman@comcast.net> wrote:
>
>>John B. <slocombjb@gmail.com> writes:
>>
>>> On Thu, 19 May 2022 11:45:43 -0400, Radey Shouman
>>> <shouman@comcast.net> wrote:
>>>
>>>>John B. <slocombjb@gmail.com> writes:
>>>>
>>>>> On Wed, 18 May 2022 13:46:14 -0400, Radey Shouman
>>>>> <shouman@comcast.net> wrote:
>>>>>
>>>>>>John B. <slocombjb@gmail.com> writes:
>>>>>>
>>>>>>> On Tue, 17 May 2022 17:28:02 -0700 (PDT), "russellseaton1@yahoo.com"
>>>>>>> <ritzannaseaton@gmail.com> wrote:
>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>On Tuesday, May 17, 2022 at 5:57:13 PM UTC-5, John B. wrote:
>>>>>>>>> On Tue, 17 May 2022 09:15:10 -0500, AMuzi <a...@yellowjersey.org> wrote:
>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>> >On 5/17/2022 5:03 AM, funkma...@hotmail.com wrote:
>>>>>>>>> >> On Monday, May 16, 2022 at 10:16:20 AM UTC-4, AMuzi wrote:
>>>>>>>>> >>
>>>>>>>>> >>>>
>>>>>>>>> >>> One might parse these things in various ways but you omitted
>>>>>>>>> >>> the classic case(s) of the Futurists. They became the
>>>>>>>>> >>> Fascists. By directing and regulating industry & commerce,
>>>>>>>>> >>> they avoided many of the crippling inefficiencies of the
>>>>>>>>> >>> more ardent communists who suffered State 'management'.
>>>>>>>>> >>> We're moving our economy and culture much more toward
>>>>>>>>> >>> Mussolini, Hitler and Peron than toward Stalin, Kim and Castro.
>>>>>>>>> >>
>>>>>>>>> >> yup, I see the big plans from the evil communist greenies to
>>>>>>>>> >> nationalize US private industries being announced daily
>>>>>>>>> >> <eyeroll>. Oh and I'm sure the conservatives _never_ made any
>>>>>>>>> >> attempts to take over a private business, right?
>>>>>>>>> >>
>>>>>>>>> >>
>>>>>>>>> >
>>>>>>>>> >The large political parties both have deep corruption and
>>>>>>>>> >that's not secret. Nor news.
>>>>>>>>> >
>>>>>>>>> >Trend to a diminished regulated economy with less freedom
>>>>>>>>> >and less prosperity is not getting better:
>>>>>>>>> >
>>>>>>>>> >https://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2022/may/12/joe-biden-cancels-massive-oil-and-gas-lease-sale-d/
>>>>>>>>> Yup,
>>>>>>>>> In a statement shared first with CBS News, the Department of the
>>>>>>>>> Interior cited a "lack of industry interest in leasing in the area"
>>>>>>>>> for the decision to "not move forward" with the Cook Inlet lease sale.
>>>>>>>>> The department also halted two leases under consideration for the Gulf
>>>>>>>>> of Mexico region because of "conflicting court rulings that impacted
>>>>>>>>> work on these proposed lease sales."
>>>>>>>>> and
>>>>>>>>> The Interior Department's Bureau of Ocean Energy Management has
>>>>>>>>> previously canceled lease sales in Cook Inlet three times — in 2007,
>>>>>>>>> 2008, and 2011 — also citing "lack of industry interest" at the time
>>>>>>>>> as the reason for scrapping the sales.
>>>>>>>>> https://www.cbsnews.com/news/biden-alaska-oil-gas-lease-sale-canceled/
>>>>>>>>> --
>>>>>>>>> Cheers,
>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>> John B.
>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>Yes. I have also seen many stories of leases for oil and gas land,
>>>>>>>> that are not being used. The government sold them, but the buyers
>>>>>>>> are not developing or trying to get the oil or gas. Very common.
>>>>>>>> But we live in a reasonably free society with somewhat free markets,
>>>>>>>> so the reasons for these unused oil and gas leases is reasonable.
>>>>>>>> No one is trying to rob, steal, cheat anyone else.
>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>https://www.poynter.org/fact-checking/2022/biden-9000-unused-oil-drill-permits/
>>>>>>>
>>>>>>> I don't remember the cost of drilling a production "shale oil" well
>>>>>>> but it is high, somewhere in the $50/bbl range, I'd guess, while a
>>>>>>> straight down and start pumping well in Saudi might be less then
>>>>>>> $10/bbl.
>>>>>>
>>>>>>What does "$50/bbl" mean? Are the barrels the total oil that will be
>>>>>>produced? barrels/day? barrels/year? How do you know how many barrels
>>>>>>you'll get before drilling the well? I know the geologists and
>>>>>>reservoir simulators will give you an idea ...
>>>>>
>>>>> Sales price per barrel for the estimated production period necessary
>>>>> to recover drilling and development costs.
>>>>>
>>>>> Generally the exact numbers will not be known until at least one
>>>>> exploration well is drilled and tested but your geology department
>>>>> can, to some extent, guesstimate numbers although there are
>>>>> innumerable cases of the Geologist getting it wrong.
>>>>
>>>>Thanks. So it is, roughly, barrels produced during the design lifetime
>>>>of the well.
>>>
>>> Well, yes... except for the word "design". Substitute "Expected", or
>>> even "Hoped for" :-).
>>
>>"Minimum expected" is what "design" means. If your management is reasonably
>>conservative it's quite a bit less than what they hope for. And of
>>course everything has to be brough to net present value using an assumed
>>interest rate, which is also uncertain.
>
> Not necessarily. It is very much a matter of semantics.
>
> Oil Wells are "designed" largely based on tested flow rates. i.e, if a
> well flows at, well say, 10,000 bbl/day, in an open hole test the one
> doesn't size downhole components for a 100bbl/day well.

That's why I asked about what your $/bbl figure meant. It requires
knowing, or estimating, how much a well will flow before it is drilled.
I guess maybe you mean that multiple wells drilled in the same field may
be expected to flow about the same amount, but I'm not sure.

> As for a "field" then on a "do it or don't" decision is made. I worked
> on one project in Western New Guinea where three exploration wells
> were drilled over a large area and oil was found, but reservoir
> pressure was almost nonexistent and the lease was abandoned.

--

On Thu, 19 May 2022 21:57:32 -0400, Radey Shouman
<shouman@comcast.net> wrote:

>John B. <slocombjb@gmail.com> writes:
>
>> On Thu, 19 May 2022 20:38:50 -0400, Radey Shouman
>> <shouman@comcast.net> wrote:
>>
>>>John B. <slocombjb@gmail.com> writes:
>>>
>>>> On Thu, 19 May 2022 11:45:43 -0400, Radey Shouman
>>>> <shouman@comcast.net> wrote:
>>>>
>>>>>John B. <slocombjb@gmail.com> writes:
>>>>>
>>>>>> On Wed, 18 May 2022 13:46:14 -0400, Radey Shouman
>>>>>> <shouman@comcast.net> wrote:
>>>>>>
>>>>>>>John B. <slocombjb@gmail.com> writes:
>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>> On Tue, 17 May 2022 17:28:02 -0700 (PDT), "russellseaton1@yahoo.com"
>>>>>>>> <ritzannaseaton@gmail.com> wrote:
>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>On Tuesday, May 17, 2022 at 5:57:13 PM UTC-5, John B. wrote:
>>>>>>>>>> On Tue, 17 May 2022 09:15:10 -0500, AMuzi <a...@yellowjersey.org> wrote:
>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>> >On 5/17/2022 5:03 AM, funkma...@hotmail.com wrote:
>>>>>>>>>> >> On Monday, May 16, 2022 at 10:16:20 AM UTC-4, AMuzi wrote:
>>>>>>>>>> >>
>>>>>>>>>> >>>>
>>>>>>>>>> >>> One might parse these things in various ways but you omitted
>>>>>>>>>> >>> the classic case(s) of the Futurists. They became the
>>>>>>>>>> >>> Fascists. By directing and regulating industry & commerce,
>>>>>>>>>> >>> they avoided many of the crippling inefficiencies of the
>>>>>>>>>> >>> more ardent communists who suffered State 'management'.
>>>>>>>>>> >>> We're moving our economy and culture much more toward
>>>>>>>>>> >>> Mussolini, Hitler and Peron than toward Stalin, Kim and Castro.
>>>>>>>>>> >>
>>>>>>>>>> >> yup, I see the big plans from the evil communist greenies to
>>>>>>>>>> >> nationalize US private industries being announced daily
>>>>>>>>>> >> <eyeroll>. Oh and I'm sure the conservatives _never_ made any
>>>>>>>>>> >> attempts to take over a private business, right?
>>>>>>>>>> >>
>>>>>>>>>> >>
>>>>>>>>>> >
>>>>>>>>>> >The large political parties both have deep corruption and
>>>>>>>>>> >that's not secret. Nor news.
>>>>>>>>>> >
>>>>>>>>>> >Trend to a diminished regulated economy with less freedom
>>>>>>>>>> >and less prosperity is not getting better:
>>>>>>>>>> >
>>>>>>>>>> >https://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2022/may/12/joe-biden-cancels-massive-oil-and-gas-lease-sale-d/
>>>>>>>>>> Yup,
>>>>>>>>>> In a statement shared first with CBS News, the Department of the
>>>>>>>>>> Interior cited a "lack of industry interest in leasing in the area"
>>>>>>>>>> for the decision to "not move forward" with the Cook Inlet lease sale.
>>>>>>>>>> The department also halted two leases under consideration for the Gulf
>>>>>>>>>> of Mexico region because of "conflicting court rulings that impacted
>>>>>>>>>> work on these proposed lease sales."
>>>>>>>>>> and
>>>>>>>>>> The Interior Department's Bureau of Ocean Energy Management has
>>>>>>>>>> previously canceled lease sales in Cook Inlet three times — in 2007,
>>>>>>>>>> 2008, and 2011 — also citing "lack of industry interest" at the time
>>>>>>>>>> as the reason for scrapping the sales.
>>>>>>>>>> https://www.cbsnews.com/news/biden-alaska-oil-gas-lease-sale-canceled/
>>>>>>>>>> --
>>>>>>>>>> Cheers,
>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>> John B.
>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>Yes. I have also seen many stories of leases for oil and gas land,
>>>>>>>>> that are not being used. The government sold them, but the buyers
>>>>>>>>> are not developing or trying to get the oil or gas. Very common.
>>>>>>>>> But we live in a reasonably free society with somewhat free markets,
>>>>>>>>> so the reasons for these unused oil and gas leases is reasonable.
>>>>>>>>> No one is trying to rob, steal, cheat anyone else.
>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>https://www.poynter.org/fact-checking/2022/biden-9000-unused-oil-drill-permits/
>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>> I don't remember the cost of drilling a production "shale oil" well
>>>>>>>> but it is high, somewhere in the $50/bbl range, I'd guess, while a
>>>>>>>> straight down and start pumping well in Saudi might be less then
>>>>>>>> $10/bbl.
>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>What does "$50/bbl" mean? Are the barrels the total oil that will be
>>>>>>>produced? barrels/day? barrels/year? How do you know how many barrels
>>>>>>>you'll get before drilling the well? I know the geologists and
>>>>>>>reservoir simulators will give you an idea ...
>>>>>>
>>>>>> Sales price per barrel for the estimated production period necessary
>>>>>> to recover drilling and development costs.
>>>>>>
>>>>>> Generally the exact numbers will not be known until at least one
>>>>>> exploration well is drilled and tested but your geology department
>>>>>> can, to some extent, guesstimate numbers although there are
>>>>>> innumerable cases of the Geologist getting it wrong.
>>>>>
>>>>>Thanks. So it is, roughly, barrels produced during the design lifetime
>>>>>of the well.
>>>>
>>>> Well, yes... except for the word "design". Substitute "Expected", or
>>>> even "Hoped for" :-).
>>>
>>>"Minimum expected" is what "design" means. If your management is reasonably
>>>conservative it's quite a bit less than what they hope for. And of
>>>course everything has to be brough to net present value using an assumed
>>>interest rate, which is also uncertain.
>>
>> Not necessarily. It is very much a matter of semantics.
>>
>> Oil Wells are "designed" largely based on tested flow rates. i.e, if a
>> well flows at, well say, 10,000 bbl/day, in an open hole test the one
>> doesn't size downhole components for a 100bbl/day well.
>
>That's why I asked about what your $/bbl figure meant. It requires
>knowing, or estimating, how much a well will flow before it is drilled.
>I guess maybe you mean that multiple wells drilled in the same field may
>be expected to flow about the same amount, but I'm not sure.
>

The way it works is that first you run seismic test on the area. Which
will tell you whether there is any hope of there being oil. There are
other tests, side scan radar, etc, but I think seismic is still the
mainstay.

If there is a sufficiently large "structure" shown which "might" hold
oil then the decision of whether to drill exploration wells, or not,
is made. Where is the field? How hard is to get to? If we do hit oil
then what?
Essentially, how much will it cost and how much can we make?

If the decision is to go ahead then a number of test wells are
drilled. In Indonesia, in my time, usually three.

Depending what was found, both quality and quantity, the decision to
establish a "field", or not, is made.

On Thursday, May 19, 2022 at 11:10:46 AM UTC-5, funkma...@hotmail.com wrote:
> On Wednesday, May 18, 2022 at 8:01:01 PM UTC-4, russell...@yahoo.com wrote:
> > On Wednesday, May 18, 2022 at 3:49:05 AM UTC-5, funkma...@hotmail.com wrote:
> > > On Tuesday, May 17, 2022 at 6:43:47 PM UTC-4, Frank Krygowski wrote:
> > > > On 5/17/2022 3:16 PM, Tom Kunich wrote:
> > > > > On Tuesday, May 17, 2022 at 2:12:56 AM UTC-7, Rolf Mantel wrote:
> > > > >> Am 17.05.2022 um 10:32 schrieb Lou Holtman:
> > > > >>> On Tuesday, May 17, 2022 at 7:59:33 AM UTC+2, John B. wrote:
> > > > >>>
> > > > >>>>
> > > > >>>> Example... when I was a young man my father, who worked in the Post
> > > > >>>> Office, could afford to send his kids, my brother and I, to collage.
> > > > >>>> No loans, no borrowing money from relatives, just a check every month
> > > > >>>> for the tuition and so on. Today I read about all the government
> > > > >>>> collage loans and the difficulties young people have in repaying them.
> > > > >>>
> > > > >>> And why is this?
> > > > >>
> > > > >> A typical "delay feedback loop":
> > > > >>
> > > > >> 1) Studies find out that people with a college degree earn significantly
> > > > >> more money during their lifetime
> > > > >> 2) More people are willing to pay to go to college
> > > > >> 3) colleges increase their tuition fees massively
> > > > >> 4)more college graduates one the market reduce the wage gap between
> > > > >> college graduates and non-graduates
> > > > >>
> > > > >> Step 3 mostly happend during the 1990's, step 4 is still ongoing
> > > > >>
> > > > >> In Germany, standard University education is paid for by the govermnent,
> > > > >> students only have to take out loans (or jobs) for their cost of living.
> > > > >
> > > > > These studies are outdated. I without a doubt would have made a great deal more money and better retirement benefits had I remained working as a technician for the Bay Area Rapid Transit district or as a Telephone Installation Technician as partner in a firm.
> > > > >
> > > > > Carpenters, Plumbers and concrete workers if they work for solid companies that can keep them working and making reasonable overtime will ALL earn higher wages than MOST college educations. Russell probably has first hand knowledge of this if he owns a home and has to have normal maintenance work completed. I had crown molding installed in ONE room by a carpenter who completed the world in under 4 hours for $2,200. He did a good job and I can't complain. I had to have my sewer pipe replaced out into the street and it took a good reliable company 4 hours and that was $8,500. These were well before the Biden inflation.
> > > > >
> > > > > I made up to a quarter million a year with a high school diploma and a two year city college. Neither of these helped my job. But I was also known as a problem solver and as managers moved around they knew they could call on me to fix their problems
> > > > How odd. Tom told us he had a GED instead of a high school diploma, and
> > > > bragged about walking away from that two year college because he knew
> > > > more than the teachers. How stories change!
> > > Right, I could have sworn that a while back he said he got a 4-year liberal arts degree at some bay area college (don't recall if it was a community college or a small private school) by going nights while working full time, paid for by the company he worked for at the time - though he resume show he was was only employed by them for 4 years.
> > >
> > Are you remembering the time Tommy said he was Captain or Commander of a ship and took sailing lessons or graduated from the sailing school. With a degree I guess.
> No, that's yet another case of him writing about his fantasy life. I was more amused that he claimed to have received a BA going nights in less than 4 years

Well, a BA is Bachelor of Arts. Arts? Ha!!!!! Arts. No self respecting manly man would major in Arts. BS for Science. Yes!!!!! BBA for Business Administration. Yes!!!!! But Arts? No....... So I am a bit surprised and shocked that our boy Tommy would get a Bachelor of ARTS!!!!!!!! Sounds a little bit foo foo to me. Tommy the artist. Drawing his delicate little swirls with brightly colored ink on the soft cloth. Or reading Elizabethan Shakespeare poetry. I'm worried about Tommy when he goes to his gang reunions in the bad streets of Oakland. If they find out he has a BA, things could get bad for Tommy. They would no longer bow down to him as the baddest bad man in town.

> > > Of course that would mean he went to school full time while working full time. I guess that's doable, but tommy?
> > > >
> > > > There are some craftsmen like finish carpenters, welders, etc. who do
> > > > very well, most often by working all the overtime they can possibly fit
> > > > in their lives. But data, in contrast with anecdotes, indicate that on
> > > > average, college degrees do pay off monetarily (not to mention in other
> > > > ways).
> > > > https://www.pewresearch.org/social-trends/2011/05/15/chapter-5-the-monetary-value-of-a-college-education/
> > > >
> > > > Of course, if you're interested in a good financial return, it pays to
> > > > carefully choose both the college and the major. Worst case is probably
> > > > something like an Art History or Peace Studies degree from a major Ivy
> > > > League school - expensive, and little market for whatever specialized
> > > > skills one learns. Best choice is probably an engineering degree from a
> > > > good state school.
> > > > https://bigeconomics.org/the-college-majors-that-pay-off-and-those-that-dont/
> > > >
> > > > I haven't been able to find any decent data on high school dropouts who
> > > > are smarter than everyone else in the world. Odd, that.
> > > >
> > > > --
> > > > - Frank Krygowski

Am 20.05.2022 um 05:09 schrieb russellseaton1@yahoo.com:
> On Thursday, May 19, 2022 at 11:10:46 AM UTC-5, funkma...@hotmail.com
> wrote:
>> On Wednesday, May 18, 2022 at 8:01:01 PM UTC-4,
>> russell...@yahoo.com wrote:

>>> Are you remembering the time Tommy said he was Captain or
>>> Commander of a ship and took sailing lessons or graduated from
>>> the sailing school. With a degree I guess.
>> No, that's yet another case of him writing about his fantasy life.
>> I was more amused that he claimed to have received a BA going
>> nights in less than 4 years
>
> Well, a BA is Bachelor of Arts. Arts? Ha!!!!! Arts. No self
> respecting manly man would major in Arts. BS for Science. Yes!!!!!
> BBA for Business Administration. Yes!!!!! But Arts? No....... So
> I am a bit surprised and shocked that our boy Tommy would get a
> Bachelor of ARTS!!!!!!!!

Actually, as a Mathematician, I have:

Bachelor of Arts,
Master of Science,
Doctor of Philosophy

On Thu, 19 May 2022 20:09:08 -0700 (PDT), "russellseaton1@yahoo.com"
<ritzannaseaton@gmail.com> wrote:

(chomp)
>Well, a BA is Bachelor of Arts. Arts? Ha!!!!! Arts. No self respecting manly man would major in Arts. BS for Science. Yes!!!!! BBA for Business Administration. Yes!!!!! But Arts? No....... So I am a bit surprised and shocked that our boy Tommy would get a Bachelor of ARTS!!!!!!!! Sounds a little bit foo foo to me.

It took me 6 years to get my BSEE (bachelor of science electrical
engineering). That was typical for the time (late 1960's). 5 years
was considered extraordinary.

>Tommy the artist. Drawing his delicate little swirls with brightly colored ink on the soft cloth. Or reading Elizabethan Shakespeare poetry. I'm worried about Tommy when he goes to his gang reunions in the bad streets of Oakland. If they find out he has a BA, things could get bad for Tommy. They would no longer bow down to him as the baddest bad man in town.

There is hope. With all the creative lying and amazing fact
contriving he does in RBT, I suggested that he take up writing fiction
as a profession. I still think it's a good idea. The nice thing
about writing fiction is that there's little or no fact checking. A
BA in literature or something similar might be useful.

--
Jeff Liebermann jeffl@cruzio.com
PO Box 272 http://www.LearnByDestroying.com
Ben Lomond CA 95005-0272
Skype: JeffLiebermann AE6KS 831-336-2558

On 5/20/2022 10:25 AM, Jeff Liebermann wrote:
> On Thu, 19 May 2022 20:09:08 -0700 (PDT), "russellseaton1@yahoo.com"
> <ritzannaseaton@gmail.com> wrote:
>
> (chomp)
>> Well, a BA is Bachelor of Arts. Arts? Ha!!!!! Arts. No self respecting manly man would major in Arts. BS for Science. Yes!!!!! BBA for Business Administration. Yes!!!!! But Arts? No....... So I am a bit surprised and shocked that our boy Tommy would get a Bachelor of ARTS!!!!!!!! Sounds a little bit foo foo to me.
>
> It took me 6 years to get my BSEE (bachelor of science electrical
> engineering). That was typical for the time (late 1960's). 5 years
> was considered extraordinary.

When I started college, the Bachelor's in Engineering required five
years, more time and courses than any other major.

Partway through, the college became a state university, and the state
demanded that no bachelor's curriculum require more than four years. So
the faculty took all the same courses, the same number of classroom and
laboratory hours, and shoehorned them into a theoretical four years.

Nobody, as in nobody, was able to complete the requirements in four
years. It took me five years, the same as most of my friends. A few
required longer.

--
- Frank Krygowski

On Friday, May 20, 2022 at 7:45:10 AM UTC-5, Rolf Mantel wrote:
> Am 20.05.2022 um 05:09 schrieb russell...@yahoo.com:
> > On Thursday, May 19, 2022 at 11:10:46 AM UTC-5, funkma...@hotmail.com
> > wrote:
> >> On Wednesday, May 18, 2022 at 8:01:01 PM UTC-4,
> >> russell...@yahoo.com wrote:
>
> >>> Are you remembering the time Tommy said he was Captain or
> >>> Commander of a ship and took sailing lessons or graduated from
> >>> the sailing school. With a degree I guess.
> >> No, that's yet another case of him writing about his fantasy life.
> >> I was more amused that he claimed to have received a BA going
> >> nights in less than 4 years
> >
> > Well, a BA is Bachelor of Arts. Arts? Ha!!!!! Arts. No self
> > respecting manly man would major in Arts. BS for Science. Yes!!!!!
> > BBA for Business Administration. Yes!!!!! But Arts? No....... So
> > I am a bit surprised and shocked that our boy Tommy would get a
> > Bachelor of ARTS!!!!!!!!
> Actually, as a Mathematician, I have:
>
> Bachelor of Arts,
> Master of Science,
> Doctor of Philosophy

Mathematics is a Bachelor of Arts? I would have put it into the Bachelor of Science category. Or did you just get a general Liberal Arts degree with a specialty in Mathematics.

I hope you do realize I am not speaking ill of the Bachelor of Arts degrees.. Or any college or other education. I have a Master of Arts myself. I am merely whipping our poor Tommy boy for fun. Tommy, who denigrates all education as a waste of time and effort.

On Fri, 20 May 2022 14:18:07 -0700 (PDT), "russellseaton1@yahoo.com"
<ritzannaseaton@gmail.com> wrote:

>On Friday, May 20, 2022 at 7:45:10 AM UTC-5, Rolf Mantel wrote:
>> Am 20.05.2022 um 05:09 schrieb russell...@yahoo.com:
>> > On Thursday, May 19, 2022 at 11:10:46 AM UTC-5, funkma...@hotmail.com
>> > wrote:
>> >> On Wednesday, May 18, 2022 at 8:01:01 PM UTC-4,
>> >> russell...@yahoo.com wrote:
>>
>> >>> Are you remembering the time Tommy said he was Captain or
>> >>> Commander of a ship and took sailing lessons or graduated from
>> >>> the sailing school. With a degree I guess.
>> >> No, that's yet another case of him writing about his fantasy life.
>> >> I was more amused that he claimed to have received a BA going
>> >> nights in less than 4 years
>> >
>> > Well, a BA is Bachelor of Arts. Arts? Ha!!!!! Arts. No self
>> > respecting manly man would major in Arts. BS for Science. Yes!!!!!
>> > BBA for Business Administration. Yes!!!!! But Arts? No....... So
>> > I am a bit surprised and shocked that our boy Tommy would get a
>> > Bachelor of ARTS!!!!!!!!
>> Actually, as a Mathematician, I have:
>>
>> Bachelor of Arts,
>> Master of Science,
>> Doctor of Philosophy
>
>Mathematics is a Bachelor of Arts? I would have put it into the Bachelor of Science category. Or did you just get a general Liberal Arts degree with a specialty in Mathematics.
>
>I hope you do realize I am not speaking ill of the Bachelor of Arts degrees. Or any college or other education. I have a Master of Arts myself. I am merely whipping our poor Tommy boy for fun. Tommy, who denigrates all education as a waste of time and effort.

But of course education is a total waste of time, money and effort!
Hasn't our very own Tommy told us of making literally tons of money
with almost no education at all? PHD's rushing in to be have their
problems solved by the indomitable Tommy.

Why, just the other day he recounted how he was making $250,000
annually and the proof is that he lives in a $50,000 home, drives a
second hand Ford, and had to marry very carefully to ensure that both
he and his new wife could keep drawing their Social Security.
--
Cheers,

John B.