One person can have an intelligent behavior. Also two, three, four the most..

But when it comes to analyze statistically the behavior of millions of humans,
the herd mentality prevails. We are not so different from other animal specie.

Being the group large enough, close or separated but receiving the same
broadcast of news, we behave as a herd (and herds are idiotic).

People working in marketing know this for decades. Also, one of the most used
mathematical models (for it's simplicity) is the S-shape adoption curve.

The basic function A(x) = 1/[(1 + e^(-x)] explains the herd adoption pace of
whatever it be: new products, services, ideas, etc.

To adjust this function to reality, some renormalization is required.

≈0 < A(x) < ≈ 1 is achieved close enough if -6 < x < 6.

This interval is arbitrary for |x| < K (K >= 6). I selected 6 as a lower limit.

To use the function with any massive adoption by the human herd, it's required to use the following normalized parameters:

1) Normalized life span in 12 steps: ΔY = (YF - YS)/12 ; (YF - YS) = 12 ΔY

YF: The calendar year at which the adoption is almost 100%.
YS: The calendar year at which the thing appears or is launched.
ΔY: Normalized steps, in years, by dividing the life span in 12 units. This
is the minimum value required, as I mentioned. It could be 20 units, etc.

2) Half adoption time (YH - YS)/ΔY = 6 ; YH = YS + 6 ΔY

YH: When A(Y) reaches the 50% of the final value.

3) Normalized years: x = (Y - YS)/ΔY ; 0 < x < 12 , 0 < (Y - YS)/ΔY < 12

4) x – 6 = (Y - YS)/ΔY - 6 , for the curve to be shifted between 0 and 12.
The shift in x is required to bring A(x) to the positive x axis ONLY.

Given the normalized expression (4), and calling

Z = (Y - YS)/ΔY - 6

A(Y) = 100/[(1 + e^(-Z)] , the normalized adoption curve massively used.

Of course that A(Y) has been tested IN THE PAST. But such use generates
know-how to make PREDICTIONS.

It's usually used to measure the time involved between A(Y10) = 10 and
A(Y90) = 90, which gives the interval Y90 - Y10 ≈ 4.4 ΔY.

Some interesting applications, verified with statistics:

Radio: YS = 1920 ; YF = 1956 ; ΔY = 3 ; x – 6 = (Y - 1920)/3 - 6 ; YH = YS + 6 ΔY = 1938

Flat screen: YS = 2000 ; YF = 2018 ; ΔY = 1.5 ; x – 6 = (Y - 2000)/1.5 - 6 ; YH = YS + 6 ΔY = 2009

PC: YS = 1981 ; YF = 2007 ; ΔY = 3 ; x – 6 = (Y - 1981)/3 - 6 ; YH = 1981 + 18 = 1999

Color TV: YS = 1953 ; YF = 1987 ; ΔY = 2.83 ; x – 6 = (Y - 1953)/2.83 - 6 ; YH = 1953 + 17 = 1970

And I calculated this one, within academia:

Relativity: YS = 1908 ; YF = 1968 ; ΔY = 5 ; x – 6 = (Y - 1908)/5 - 6 ; YH = 1908 + 30 = 1938

It can be seen that the parameter ΔY is the target in the analysis. The
shorter, the better (or worse).

To make the function work predictably, the herd volume (market target) is
estimated. When measured values are at 10% of the total market, a
prediction is made to analyze IF the pace ΔY is satisfactory.

If not, measures to shorten it are adopted, by publicity, PR, etc.

When A(Y) reaches 50%, a new generation of whatever is planned to be
introduced, overlapping THE CURRENT adoption curve.

And, it this simple, stupid way, consumers of whatever are at the mercy of
producers of whatever.

It works with social agendas too, like feminism, gender questioning, etc.

A(x) is useful for natural adoption by the human herd.

It can't be applied to disruptive events, like war and its foundations, or
dramatic events that introduces changes (COVID, etc.).

I liked when I applied it on relativity adoption by academia. My invention,
of course, not based in real data. But statistics and law of big numbers...

On Sunday, December 12, 2021 at 9:52:57 PM UTC-8, Richard Hertz wrote:
> One person can have an intelligent behavior. Also two, three, four the most.
>
> But when it comes to analyze statistically the behavior of millions of humans,
> the herd mentality prevails. We are not so different from other animal specie.

There is no such word as "specie".

--
Jan

On Monday, December 13, 2021 at 3:00:05 AM UTC-3, JanPB wrote:

<snip>

> > But when it comes to analyze statistically the behavior of millions of humans,
> > the herd mentality prevails. We are not so different from other animal specie.

> There is no such word as "specie".

Put the fucking "s" at the end by yourself, resented converted Polish (or Pole)!

The fastest massive adoption for a product is about the iPhone and competing smartphones: ΔY = 0.67, more than two times
faster than flat screens: ΔY = 1.5, and Personal Computers: ΔY = 3.

iPhone: YS = 2007 ; YF = 2015 ; ΔY = 0.67 ; x – 6 = (Y - 1908)/5 - 6 ; YH = 2007 + 4 = 2011

And for a service, the crown goes to Tik Tok, with ΔY = 0.42.

Tik Tok: YS = 2016 ; YF = 2021 ; ΔY = 0.42 ; x – 6 = (Y - 2016)/0.42 - 6 ; YH = 2007 + 4 = 2011

Isn't it a little bit scaring?.

Consumerism of the human herd is shown as accelerating, in a world void of purposes with moral compass.

Narcissism is ruling the behavior of masses as never before.

Regarding relativity, a negative of increase shows that the number of converted retarded is falling, in spite of efforts.

On Sunday, December 12, 2021 at 9:52:57 PM UTC-8, Richard Hertz wrote:
>I am not so different from other animal specie.
Please don't insult the animals

Richard Hertz wrote:

> On Monday, December 13, 2021 at 3:00:05 AM UTC-3, JanPB wrote:
> <snip>
>> > But when it comes to analyze statistically the behavior of millions
>> > of humans,
>> > the herd mentality prevails. We are not so different from other
>> > animal specie.
>
>> There is no such word as "specie".
>
> Put the fucking "s" at the end by yourself, resented converted Polish
> (or Pole)!

they are recalcitrant. Asking now germany for compensation losing the war.